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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Predicting Blackhawks Goals - Defence
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L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Aug 16 @ 11:06 AM ET
Kase with a 47 point pace over 82 games last year with 20G 18A in 66 games and signed 3 years at $2.6mil vs Schmaltz's 54 point pace for 82 games with 21G 31A in 78 games.


Maybe 3 years at $4mil as a bridge contract is an option for #8??

- EnzoD

Kase had .44 PPG over 145 games on his ELC while Schmaltz has .58 PPG over 139 games so far on his ELC (and .58 vs .67 PPG for the last year), so Schmaltz is already at a higher comparable level than Kase.

Kase took less $ and term than he probably could have (he's was in the Silfverberg range of PPG but with less games play) but there are some points against: he too less term to max his next deal, he had to sign this year instead of getting more games played, he was injured / healthy scratched a bit this season, barely is in the top 9 minutes on the team, and doesn't play on either special teams unit. That's going to hurt his value little (still should have been over $3m probably).

Schmaltz is already more productive, is in top 3 forwards for TOI (5v5 and all) on the Hawks, plays on both special teams, and only missed 4 games to injury. Kase isn't a good comparable for Schmaltz. If Schmaltz maintains or improve, he will distance himself even more from Kase-like players in terms of comparables. Best case, Schmaltz signs for $5.5m for 5 years or less because he wants to be able to max his next contract like Larkin just did. If Schmaltz signs longer term, his price will be a bit higher if he progresses like he did this past season.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 16 @ 11:13 AM ET


L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Aug 16 @ 11:21 AM ET
Just me guess here...neither the Blackhawks nor Schmaltz want a bridge deal. The going rate for a 60 point top 6 forward is around $5.5 to $6.5 million.

You can argue where Schmaltz fits within this range but this is what we can expect the Hawks to pay for a 5 - 8 year deal. The situation will be similar (not exact, but similar) for DeBrincat next summer.

Sean Monahan - $6.375
Mark Scheifele - $6.125
Dylan Larkin - $6.1
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - $6.0
Filip Forsberg - $6.0
Nikolaj Ehlers - $6.0
Artemi Panarin - $6.0
Jonathan Huberdeau - $6.0
Aleksander Barkov - $6.0
Jonathan Drouin - $5.5
Bo Horvat - $5.5

Note: Some of these deals are already a couple years old so they may be undervalued based on today's standards.

- DarthKane

Updated comparable chart for Schmaltz with some additions. First, I added Kase to show that he's far down the list from Schmaltz where longer term or short bridge are more 50/50 chance. Second, I added options for where Schmaltz would be if he either maintained his current production from last year as well as if he improved to 60 points.



It's unlikely Schmaltz will opt for a short bridge deal, so the comparables are in the $5.5-6.4m range. I think arguments about age could keep Schmaltz from top Monahan/McKinnon contract but Larkin/Scheifele range is extremely possible. Esp Larkin since they share an agent.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 16 @ 11:34 AM ET
He's on an AHL contract so he's not getting to the show anytime soon.
- L_B_R


That’s another reason I like this signing so much, it’s a no risk signing, that doesn’t take up another contract slot. Just guessing but wouldn’t be surprised if Colliton was the one that pushed for this one.

It gives him a project to work on, we’ll see if there’s more to the kid than meets the eye.
BGKarras
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 06.19.2012

Aug 16 @ 12:04 PM ET
Wtf is a Hillrod?
- BlazinMike

Hillbilly....
BGKarras
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 06.19.2012

Aug 16 @ 12:04 PM ET
Pretty much what it sounds like...think the Clampett’s from Beverly Hillbilles, but without the money or proud ownership of a fifth grade education like Jethro.

Even still, stop feeding the trolls and they eventually go away.

- HawkintheD

Boom!!!!!
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 16 @ 12:50 PM ET
Would you make this combination of trades? Brandon Saad for Torey Krug, then Erik Gustafsson for Ryan Strome.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Aug 16 @ 1:07 PM ET
Would you make this combination of trades? Brandon Saad for Torey Krug, then Erik Gustafsson for Ryan Strome.
- walleyeb1

No - Saad is better defensively than Krug.

And yes but I don't know why the Oilers would do this unless they think their top 4 is pretty set.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 16 @ 1:08 PM ET
Would you make this combination of trades? Brandon Saad for Torey Krug, then Erik Gustafsson for Ryan Strome.
- walleyeb1



Pass. Krug is 5'9", the team doesn't need another smurf. Strome may not be a bust, but he's close to it. He had a decent season in 14/15, other than that $3.1 million is too much to pay fora 30 point forward.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 16 @ 1:21 PM ET
No - Saad is better defensively than Krug.

And yes but I don't know why the Oilers would do this unless they think their top 4 is pretty set.

- L_B_R




I was thinking with Sekera out long term maybe we could get a decent return for Gustafsson. Just spit balling.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Aug 16 @ 1:40 PM ET



I was thinking with Sekera out long term maybe we could get a decent return for Gustafsson. Just spit balling.

- walleyeb1


Gustafson+ For Puljujarvi
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 16 @ 1:41 PM ET
Pass. Krug is 5'9", the team doesn't need another smurf. Strome may not be a bust, but he's close to it. He had a decent season in 14/15, other than that $3.1 million is too much to pay fora 30 point forward.
- DarthKane


$6 million is worse. Krug is a 50+ point Defensemen and one point per game player in his last two playoffs. 54.9% CF% as well.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Aug 16 @ 1:49 PM ET
That’s another reason I like this signing so much, it’s a no risk signing, that doesn’t take up another contract slot. Just guessing but wouldn’t be surprised if Colliton was the one that pushed for this one.

It gives him a project to work on, we’ll see if there’s more to the kid than meets the eye.

- walleyeb1

I like this signing, too. Like you said, no risk but potential upside. Tyler Sikura is a good example: he played on an AHL contract all of last season then parlayed that into an NHL contract. Will he ever play in the NHL? Maybe, maybe not, but he is a key player and leader for the Hogs today.

Moynihan may never make the NHL, but at minimum he can play an important role on the Hogs this season and possibly beyond. Role players and veterans on a farm team are critical as much as the prized prospects.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 16 @ 1:54 PM ET
$6 million is worse. Krug is a 50+ point Defensemen and one point per game player in his last two playoffs. 54.9% CF% as well.
- walleyeb1



I wouldn't categorize Saad as a 30 point player. True, he had a down season last year but he's consistently performed at the 50-60 point range and is capable of netting 30 goals. I don't see the Hawks giving up on Saad, especially not for Krug.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Aug 16 @ 1:56 PM ET



I was thinking with Sekera out long term maybe we could get a decent return for Gustafsson. Just spit balling.

- walleyeb1

I prefer to keep Saad and would want a bigger haul if he was ever traded.

As for Gustafsson, not a fan of his so I'd be all ears for any deals with him going the other way, especially with Jokiharju, Boqvist, Mitchell, Beaudin, and Krys in the system who could provide a similar if not better offensive package but potentially be better defensively in comparison.

I see those aforementioned prospects as being in the long term plans for the Hawks. Don't see that for Gustafsson, Rutta, Murphy, or Manning. They play a role now to help buy time for the prospects to develop at a reasonable rate, but they will be expendable sooner or later.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 16 @ 2:00 PM ET
I wouldn't categorize Saad as a 30 point player. True, he had a down season last year but he's consistently performed at the 50-60 point range and is capable of netting 30 goals. I don't see the Hawks giving up on Saad, especially not for Krug.
- DarthKane


Maybe we could just trade bad contracts Lucic for Seabrook.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 16 @ 2:03 PM ET
Maybe we could just trade bad contracts Lucic for Seabrook.
- walleyeb1



vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Aug 16 @ 2:18 PM ET
Heard from a source close to team that he thinks crow is done for good and might not ever play again...have you heard anything similar Justin?
- WiscoReg


Trusted source?

I would assume, if true, you might see Stan making a move very soon. They wouldn't go into the season with Ward as the #1 and Forsberg his backup would they?
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 16 @ 2:22 PM ET
Trusted source?

I would assume, if true, you might see Stan making a move very soon. They wouldn't go into the season with Ward as the #1 and Forsberg his backup would they?

- vabeachbear



Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Aug 16 @ 2:30 PM ET
Trusted source?

I would assume, if true, you might see Stan making a move very soon. They wouldn't go into the season with Ward as the #1 and Forsberg his backup would they?

- vabeachbear

I think this is where that "out of leftfield" rumor may have come from a few weeks ago with the Hawks supposedly interested in Mason. Why pursue a 4th goalie if Crawford is expected to play even just a little bit this season?

I personally wouldn't want Mason as he's a headcase and bad influence on young players with his attitude, but I would agree that Bowman would be actively searching for goalies to supplement Ward and Forsberg if the rumor is true that Crawford's career is done.

Bowman jokes and reputation aside, that also might be the reason why Ward has a NTC, i.e. the Hawks can't quickly or easily ship him out this season just because they found another goalie to be the starter.
kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

Aug 16 @ 2:38 PM ET
Trusted source?

I would assume, if true, you might see Stan making a move very soon. They wouldn't go into the season with Ward as the #1 and Forsberg his backup would they?

- vabeachbear


in all Honesty the only guy that we could get that might not cost much and could possibly project as better then AVG goalie would be darling. who could be available that above a .910 S%. If they knew this was a issue should have done something better then WARD he must have the same Agent as ROZ do get 3 mil for a .905 S% with NTC. I think the fact that Hawks announcer's said he did not look good convinced me he was done. MCD would have never allowed that to happen unless it was a real possibility.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Aug 16 @ 2:43 PM ET
Trusted source?

I would assume, if true, you might see Stan making a move very soon. They wouldn't go into the season with Ward as the #1 and Forsberg his backup would they?

- vabeachbear


WiscoReg
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 04.28.2017

Aug 16 @ 3:44 PM ET
Trusted source?

I would assume, if true, you might see Stan making a move very soon. They wouldn't go into the season with Ward as the #1 and Forsberg his backup would they?

- vabeachbear


Current NHL scout with numerous ties to hawks is where the “rumor” originated
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Aug 16 @ 3:59 PM ET
$6 million is worse. Krug is a 50+ point Defensemen and one point per game player in his last two playoffs. 54.9% CF% as well.
- walleyeb1


this is not happening but for discussion sake:

saad for krug debrusk and 2nd still think saad will bounce back and net 25-30 goals.
Tyler Cameron
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 10.31.2017

Aug 16 @ 4:07 PM ET
Heard from a source close to team that he thinks crow is done for good and might not ever play again...have you heard anything similar Justin?
- WiscoReg


No. I have not heard that.
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