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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Predicting Blackhawks Goals - Forwards
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BlackhawkMike
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.30.2011

Aug 13 @ 1:41 PM ET
Debrincat has 30 minimum I say, but hey what do I know?

L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Aug 13 @ 1:42 PM ET
30 goals from Toews would be shocking at this point. There is nothing to indicate Toews will pot 25 ever again.
- mrpaulish

It's not even slightly accurate to say there is nothing to suggest Toews can reach 25 goals. I mean, his prorated goal totals for the last two seasons were 24 and 22 respectfully, and that's with sh% that is low for the quality of shot. If he even corrects 2% from last season, he pots 25 right there; if he correct to his average (including the low end of the last two seasons), that puts him at 30. This is pretty in-line with his individual expected goals from the last two seasons, which typically hover around 25-26. So there is evidence that it's possible, just have to play the games to really determine if it'll happen.

Honestly, I think 25 is more likely because gradual but not full regression on sh% is more likely. A lot of older players who have rebound years happen in the 4-6% range but I don't think Toews will have the assist rate support to correct that much unless Kane is with him the whole time or someone like Sikura is just a boss. So yeah, imo Toews' sh% will increase but his shot totals will come down a bit, which will have him a bit higher but not necessarily his highest in goal production.
Cmonalready
Joined: 07.02.2012

Aug 13 @ 1:43 PM ET
Panarin: For the last 5 years, the hawks have been seriously hamstrung in putting together a competitive roster with $21m committed to its top two players. I don't care whether Toews is or is not carrying his weight at $10.5m in value. $21m committed to two players has a serious impact on devising a competitive roster. In my opinion, there is ZERO chance they can add Panarin, as $30m on three players would be MUCH WORSE than $21m on two. Ain't happening. (Of course, they could add Panarin for one year at his current $6m, but I would guess the price for a one year rental would be too high...one or more of our top youngsters).

Give it up, EK, Panarin/Kane aint happening any time soon.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Aug 13 @ 2:10 PM ET
I can see why people think this, but I disagree. Toews had lots of success in his career before playing with Hossa. I'm sure playing with Hossa made Toews better (Hossa makes everyone and everything better) but I wouldn't say he carried Toews.

Like JL I think Saad will play with Schmaltz and Kane so his success won't be related to Toews.

Most of AA's goals will be on the PP and I think he'll split his time centring the 3rd line and playing LW with Toews and DeBrincat.

- DarthKane


Actually, I can't...not at all. Both great players in their own rights and to suggest Toews had nothing to do with his own success is ludicrous.

Toews hasn't been great the last few years but people forget that when he was good, he was really good and could rise to the occasion like few if any other players in the league.

Scoring a shortie while shorthanded vs VAN in 2011. Scoring two quick ones on ANA in 2015 in game 7 to put that series away. There are others but those are two moments that stick out for me.
glennjpawlak22
Joined: 11.26.2013

Aug 13 @ 2:11 PM ET
Eklund is REALLY committing to his Panarin to Chicago "rumor".......
- EnzoD


PER EK -

#5.Chicago.

I keep hearing they aren't done. They aren't at all satisfied with the current group and the Hawks LOVE to make noise and stir things up. I still keep hearing they have their heart set on bringing Panarin back to play with Kane...
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 13 @ 2:14 PM ET
Toews 50 goals 50 assists +35, 65% Corsi and Hart Trophy.....if Kane is on his line all season
- EnzoD



And people would still complain about Toews being overpaid.
Savoy
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Spencer, NC
Joined: 01.15.2014

Aug 13 @ 3:45 PM ET
Panarin to Chicago plus good goaltending puts Chicago into the second round of the playoffs.
weakglovehand
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: under-q's-stash, IL
Joined: 02.27.2007

Aug 13 @ 3:53 PM ET
Well, I am officially finished with Hlinka Gretzky tourney and I can confidently say teams selecting in the top 15 next April don't have to worry about the player they select not making an impact in some way on their roster.

And the top five or six, well are really exciting I impact kids.

Sure, Hughes is in a class by himself, but the next tier is pretty special in it's own right as a long term high end valued group, and the the guys into the mid round are really high end too.
(Not as many defenders there that have stepped into that first couple tiers except the big Swede, and , but a whole lot more promising ones we will Strat to get better reads on as they seasons begin.)

I have decided to throw up seven rounds of players NOW, for 2019, but don't start calling me on the ranks after the first two.

I am very confident I have the best tom 30 anywhere you can find one, so let them copy away.

I also started a 2020 mock draft but don't hold me past the top three kids, ok?

and you can squarely place me on the side that the #1 2020 pick, Alexis , is going to be a better player bigger star that jack Hughes. He's just so strong fluid and unhesitatingly insightful with his motions after reading things. He's good in all phases, and his frame gives back as much push as they attempt to give him. He is simply a future star.


Anyway, the reason, I posted was I gave the the Blackhawks Goalie Spencer Knight with their first rounder instead of a centre or big man forward, because he is in the categories of Gibson and Tampa's Andrei Vasilevskiy.

So go look at the ranks on DraftSite...I will start filling in the player strengths as time goes by....

- wiz1901


Lots of talent on display over the weekend, and you are correct that the top 15 or 20 when you include those that didn't make the tourney will be all NHL'ers. Incredible speed and puck handling in the Bronze and Gold medal games.
The Hawks picking a goalie in the first round? Yea I guess anything is possible, I'm not sure how many 5'10" 170lb puck handling defensemen a team needs before addressing the holes at #1LW and #2C or #1C if Toews moves down to #2C.
Yea they need a goalie, but its 4 or 5 years from draft to NHL production. Why waste a 1st rounder? especially with so many holes to be filled easier and sooner. Maybe a late 1st rounder, but remember how well Boston did with Subban's brother, when so many other players were available a few years back. Zack Furcale was another that went high in the 2nd round, where is he now? Rick Di Pietro would be another.( injuries ended his career)
Savard2Secord
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Round Lake, IL
Joined: 12.12.2016

Aug 13 @ 3:58 PM ET
I don't agree.

I expect DeBrincat to have a monster season, and score at least 35 goals, which he would have scored last season had he played 20 minutes a game. DeBrincat has only gotten better at every level season after season. So I expect 35 out of him but I wouldn't be shocked if he hit 40..

Schmaltz is another guy I expect to see score more goals, and I expect Saad to snap out of his slump as well as Toews..

If this team plays on the level they're capable of I expect the following:

Alex DeBrincat -35
Patrick Kane -35
Brandon Saad – 29
Nick Schmaltz – 27
Jonathan Toews – 24
Artem Anisimov – 18
Victor Ejdsell – 15
Dylan Sikura – 15
John Hayden – 12
Chris Kunitz – 10
Domnik Kahun – 9
Jacob Nilsson – 8
Matthew Highmore - 7
David Kampf – 6
Marcus Kruger – 5
Andreas Martinsen – 3
Luke Johnson – 2
Alex Fortin – 1
Jordan Schroeder – 1

262 goals by forwards.... That's 3.1 goals per game by forwards.

IMO, the real problem the Hawks will have this season will be keeping pucks out of the net if Crow isn't healthy and the defense has no chemistry like last season.
Savard2Secord
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Round Lake, IL
Joined: 12.12.2016

Aug 13 @ 4:08 PM ET
Interesting projections JL. I mostly agree with your projections but I have a sneaky feeling Kunitz will be more around 12-15 goals as I have a feeling he will see some time on the PP and some shifts on LW with Toews based on Q's preference for proven veterans.
- FourOrr


I agree, Sharpie put up 10 goals last season so I cant see how Kunitz could score any less given he will be playing a similar role... I expect 12-15 too.

I think Edjsell & Sikura will score at least 15 too if he gets a full-time role.

I think there will be some surprises from some of the other kids too, and I expect Saad to snap out of his "slump"... DeBrincat should have a good season too.. He would have scored 35 goals last season if he played 20 minutes a game..
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Aug 13 @ 4:50 PM ET
I don't agree.

I expect DeBrincat to have a monster season, and score at least 35 goals, which he would have scored last season had he played 20 minutes a game. DeBrincat has only gotten better at every level season after season. So I expect 35 out of him but I wouldn't be shocked if he hit 40..

Schmaltz is another guy I expect to see score more goals, and I expect Saad to snap out of his slump as well as Toews..

If this team plays on the level they're capable of I expect the following:

Alex DeBrincat -35
Patrick Kane -35
Brandon Saad – 29
Nick Schmaltz – 27
Jonathan Toews – 24
Artem Anisimov – 18
Victor Ejdsell – 15
Dylan Sikura – 15
John Hayden – 12
Chris Kunitz – 10
Domnik Kahun – 9
Jacob Nilsson – 8
Matthew Highmore - 7
David Kampf – 6
Marcus Kruger – 5
Andreas Martinsen – 3
Luke Johnson – 2
Alex Fortin – 1
Jordan Schroeder – 1

262 goals by forwards.... That's 3.1 goals per game by forwards.

IMO, the real problem the Hawks will have this season will be keeping pucks out of the net if Crow isn't healthy and the defense has no chemistry like last season.

- Savard2Secord


You are dreaming my man. You have three forwards in Edjsell, Sikura and Kahun almost forty goals? And ADB 35????

2018-19 will be a repeat of last season. Only with worse goaltending.

Let the rookies bake in the oven and we will see what this team has in two years. Certainly not a roster worth paying money to see for a while.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Aug 13 @ 4:58 PM ET
Panarin: For the last 5 years, the hawks have been seriously hamstrung in putting together a competitive roster with $21m committed to its top two players. I don't care whether Toews is or is not carrying his weight at $10.5m in value. $21m committed to two players has a serious impact on devising a competitive roster. In my opinion, there is ZERO chance they can add Panarin, as $30m on three players would be MUCH WORSE than $21m on two. Ain't happening. (Of course, they could add Panarin for one year at his current $6m, but I would guess the price for a one year rental would be too high...one or more of our top youngsters).

Give it up, EK, Panarin/Kane aint happening any time soon.

- Cmonalready


Watch Stan put CC on LTIR for the season to sign Panarin
GPHawksfan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: AB
Joined: 01.26.2018

Aug 13 @ 5:02 PM ET
Panarin to Chicago plus good goaltending puts Chicago into the second round of the playoffs.
- Savoy

Bullpoop
GPHawksfan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: AB
Joined: 01.26.2018

Aug 13 @ 5:04 PM ET
Bullpoop
- GPHawksfan

Panarin isn't a free agent this year
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Aug 13 @ 5:16 PM ET
Panarin to Chicago plus good goaltending puts Chicago into the second round of the playoffs.
- Savoy


It didn't the year before last, do you think they are better now than then?

Do you think the others in the division are worse than the year before last?
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Aug 13 @ 5:18 PM ET
Watch Stan put CC on LTIR for the season to sign Panarin
- Return of the Roar


Think those two numbers are the same or very close. Assuming Columbus would make the trade, it is at least possible this way.
Savard2Secord
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Round Lake, IL
Joined: 12.12.2016

Aug 13 @ 5:33 PM ET
You are dreaming my man. You have three forwards in Edjsell, Sikura and Kahun almost forty goals? And ADB 35????

2018-19 will be a repeat of last season. Only with worse goaltending.

Let the rookies bake in the oven and we will see what this team has in two years. Certainly not a roster worth paying money to see for a while.

- Return of the Roar


DeBrincat would have scored 35 goals last season had he played 20 minutes a night.. DeBrincat will only get better...

And yes, I believe Edjsell, Sikura and Kahun can score 30+ goals combined.

Edjsell is pretty talented - he's basically an Anisimov clone, just younger - and Sikura has talent himself, and Kahun is a Kruger type that can score.

DeBrincat tho, I have him as a lock for at least 30.
Savard2Secord
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Round Lake, IL
Joined: 12.12.2016

Aug 13 @ 5:47 PM ET
Panarin: For the last 5 years, the hawks have been seriously hamstrung in putting together a competitive roster with $21m committed to its top two players. I don't care whether Toews is or is not carrying his weight at $10.5m in value. $21m committed to two players has a serious impact on devising a competitive roster. In my opinion, there is ZERO chance they can add Panarin, as $30m on three players would be MUCH WORSE than $21m on two. Ain't happening. (Of course, they could add Panarin for one year at his current $6m, but I would guess the price for a one year rental would be too high...one or more of our top youngsters).

Give it up, EK, Panarin/Kane aint happening any time soon.

- Cmonalready


The Hawks could sign Panarin, look at the Hawks cap position at capfriendly...

The real question is what Schmaltz & DeBrincat going to get?

Obviously Bowman would need to move Anisimov to bring Panarin back, but that wouldn't be too difficult.... Crows contract expires at the end of next season as well.

IMO, trading for Panarin right now makes no sense because the Hawks would have to give up some quality talent to get him back and Anisimov would have to be going the other way.... Something like Anisimov, Beaudin & first round pick at the very least.. You could bet Columbus would probably demand Schmaltz or DeBrincat in a deal...

Panarin will be a UFA next summer and I see Bowman absolutely pursuing him.. 7-years at 9.5 per... And yes, the Hawks DO have the cap space to make it work without getting into long-term cap trouble. As a matter of fact when Bowman traded Panarin I had a suspicion that he had an agreement with Panarin that Bowman would bring him back as a UFA - and all indicators are pointing to my hunch being correct with Panarin gracefully refusing an extension with Columbus and Bowman moving Hossa -- the dominoes have been setup for Bowman to make a run at Panarin next summer and that's exactly what he's going to do....

I just cant see why Bowman would have traded Panarin in the first place without a plan to bring him back.. There is just no way he would have traded him without having a backup plan in place....
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Aug 13 @ 5:49 PM ET
DeBrincat would have scored 35 goals last season had he played 20 minutes a night.. DeBrincat will only get better...

And yes, I believe Edjsell, Sikura and Kahun can score 30+ goals combined.

Edjsell is pretty talented - he's basically an Anisimov clone, just younger - and Sikura has talent himself, and Kahun is a Kruger type that can score.

DeBrincat tho, I have him as a lock for at least 30.

- Savard2Secord


Not so sure about Ejdsell being a AA clone. He seems to have decent offensive instincts, but being strong along the boards is a bit of a question mark which is something AA is good at.
Savard2Secord
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Round Lake, IL
Joined: 12.12.2016

Aug 13 @ 7:01 PM ET
Not so sure about Ejdsell being a AA clone. He seems to have decent offensive instincts, but being strong along the boards is a bit of a question mark which is something AA is good at.
- HawkintheD


Well obviously Edjsell will need some time, he's still developing - however in his prime I can see him being very similar to Anisimov, however with Edjsell the Hawks have time to mold him into the player they need him to be...

IMO, if Edjsell can earn himself a full-time roster spot he can put up between 10-15 goals this season..

I think Edjsell will be an ideal 3rd line forward, however he's going to have some serious competition over the next few years because the Hawks have a lot of kids that project to be very good (above average) 3rd liners..... The Hawks will be a very good team in the next couple of years - Stan has done a great job drafting and picking up prospects like Edjsell and Entwhistle - guys who can provide quality depth and secondary scoring... So who knows what will happen long-term with Edjsell. IMO, he's ready for the NHL - but that doesn't mean he will have a full-time spot with the Hawks long-term, despite being NHL caliber he may get outplayed hence redundant which would make him trade bait... Either way it's a nice problem to have and few are expecting anything out of Edjsell or the Hawks this season (even alleged Hawks fans) but I do.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 13 @ 7:29 PM ET
Not so sure about Ejdsell being a AA clone. He seems to have decent offensive instincts, but being strong along the boards is a bit of a question mark which is something AA is good at.
- HawkintheD


Anisimov needs to be traded, his cap his is atrocious.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Aug 13 @ 7:34 PM ET
Anisimov needs to be traded, his cap his is atrocious.
- DarthKane


35+ goals for all 12 forwards and 10+ goals for all 6 Dmen....but still last place with a 5.5 GAA from Ward and Forsberg
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Aug 13 @ 7:37 PM ET
DeBrincat would have scored 35 goals last season had he played 20 minutes a night.. DeBrincat will only get better...

And yes, I believe Edjsell, Sikura and Kahun can score 30+ goals combined.

Edjsell is pretty talented - he's basically an Anisimov clone, just younger - and Sikura has talent himself, and Kahun is a Kruger type that can score.

DeBrincat tho, I have him as a lock for at least 30.

- Savard2Secord


There’s a reason the “sophomore jinx” is a thing: opposing teams have caught on the what you productively have done and take it away from you.

AdB is going to have to adjust (probably for the first time in his career) to defenses committed to stopping him (even on a line with Kane and whoever). It will take time for him to understand how.

Twenty-five goals would be a nice season for him.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 13 @ 8:37 PM ET
Patrick Kane – 34
Brandon Saad – 30
Nick Schmaltz – 30
Alex Debrincat – 34
Jonathan Toews – 24
Artem Anisimov – 23
Dylan Sikura – 17
John Hayden – 9
Chris Kunitz – 14
Domnik Kahun – 11
Victor Ejdsell – 6
Matthew Highmore – 12
Marcus Kruger – 5
David Kampf – 7

Goals - 256
D2D
Joined: 05.27.2018

Aug 13 @ 9:16 PM ET
True on the 3 hatties but I could also see ADB eclipse 25 with more consistency as he had a big November and then fell off a bit in December. He has a nose for the net and where to find the soft spot in seams. Twenty five is reasonable but I see him netting 30.

Schmaltz has a pretty good shot and 27 would be great this season. I think he also has potential to eclipse that if he shoots more. I didn't follow his career in juniors but my guess is he's always been more of a distributor than shooter so it doesn't surprise me in regard to his goal totals.

- HawkintheD


I think Schmaltzy on the high end might reach 30; remember this is contract year so there is his major incentive. You are correct even ever since his youth hockey at the Chicago Mission, he has been a pass first guy looking for that "pretty" goal, then on Jrs. at the Green Bay Gamblers, then onto North Dakota. He even showed that at World Juniors. It starts with his mindset!
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