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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Are the Hawks Done?
Author Message
35Tony0
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Springfield, IL
Joined: 05.10.2015

Jul 22 @ 6:08 PM ET
Then you’ll be glad to know that the old man and the family got over $1Billion when they sold the company to Berkshire Partners a couple of years ago.
- StLBravesFan

Would love to have them plant one here in Springfield. I know they have done so in Bloomington/Normal.
Hawkster
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Quebec , QC
Joined: 06.13.2008

Jul 22 @ 6:14 PM ET
I get the flip, ‘all is woe’ post, but, realistically:

If CC plays, that’s a significant improvement, replacing the revolving door of AHL goalies with an NHL All-Star, 2 time SC winner.

As they say in MLB, it’s likely players with a down year rebound to their norm. Think Jason Heyward, then Saad & Toews.

Most times, rookies improve in their second or third season, after getting experience at the NHL level. There are a bunch of young guys that can take a step up.

The off-season acquisitions are not done yet. There are potential additions, with or without subtractions.

I expect a playoff season, and not through the wild card.

- scottak


Perhaps you're right but unfortunately going into next season with basically the same team is worrisome. The core with the exception of Kane has seriously regressed. The results have been poor and the energy, drive whatever you want to call it seems missing on most nights. The coach as good as he was appears to no longer motivate the players as he was once did, and in my opinion may have lost the room to some degree.

That being said there are bright spots and we have seem to have drafted well. I just think that although the youth will improve we will see the continual decline of the older players. We might get lucky and get a resurgence of the likes of Toews and Seabs and we might catch lightning in a bottle? I hope we do! I just don't think it's realistic with the lineup as it stands.


EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Jul 22 @ 6:25 PM ET
If they accept Trouba at $5.5m, they still have $12.9m in space and only Morrissey, Tanev, and Dano to sign. Morrissey is the only one that should get any real money but still probably not a huge amount. Tanev had only 18 points and Dano only 3 (after playing in only 23 games) - they're looking at 4th line money lbr.

Jets might want to move Myers or Wheeler anyway simply because they're UFA at the end of the year, if they don't resign them.

- L_B_R


Laine will get $10mil next summer and Ehlers will get at least $5milwith another 25+goal season. Wheeler is also a UFA next year I believe.
D2D
Joined: 05.27.2018

Jul 22 @ 6:45 PM ET
Laine will get $10mil next summer and Ehlers will get at least $5milwith another 25+goal season. Wheeler is also a UFA next year I believe.
- EnzoD


Isn't it both ironic and funny that we now desire others players, ie Peg's Trouba, Myers, Wheeler, Tanev, etc when a not too distant time ago other teams desired most Hawks who undoubtedbly cashed in big time in free agency. Oh how times have changed? If Wheeler goes anywhere it might be back home to the State of Hockey but by all accounts he is happy in Peg. However, if Peg wins the Cup this season, then I definitely could see him leaving, almost a mass exodus!
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 22 @ 6:46 PM ET
Laine will get $10mil next summer and Ehlers will get at least $5milwith another 25+goal season. Wheeler is also a UFA next year I believe.
- EnzoD

Ehlers is already signed long term - $6m x 7 years because that's what his comparables got. He's just below Monahan in PPG who's contract is $6.3m x 7, though Monahan had more TOI for his argument.

Ehlers will be a comparable for Schmaltz in the near future - if Schmaltz gets just 10 more points next season, it's pretty much a guarantee he'll get a $6x6 type of deal, give or take $500k. He's already at Drouin/Landeskog/Horvat comparison for contract amount/terms.

Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Jul 22 @ 7:10 PM ET
Close

1.34-2.03m = 3rd
2.03-4.06m = 2nd
4.06-6.09m = 1st + 3rd
6.09-8.12m = 1st + 2nd + 3rd
8.12-10.15m = 1st + 1st +2n
10.15m and above = 4 x 1st

Most GMs don't offer sheet because 1) the compensation for the guys worth offer sheeting is usually at least in the 1st + 2nd + 3rd pick range (Trouba, for example); 2) rarely does it work (only Penner has moved teams); and 3) there is a negative response from all other GMs. O'Reilly in 2013 was the last player to even be offered and there were reports of other GMs not wanting to work with Feaster after it (he was fired in December later that year).

- L_B_R

Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Jul 22 @ 7:11 PM ET
Close

1.34-2.03m = 3rd
2.03-4.06m = 2nd
4.06-6.09m = 1st + 3rd
6.09-8.12m = 1st + 2nd + 3rd
8.12-10.15m = 1st + 1st +2n
10.15m and above = 4 x 1st

Most GMs don't offer sheet because 1) the compensation for the guys worth offer sheeting is usually at least in the 1st + 2nd + 3rd pick range (Trouba, for example); 2) rarely does it work (only Penner has moved teams); and 3) there is a negative response from all other GMs. O'Reilly in 2013 was the last player to even be offered and there were reports of other GMs not wanting to work with Feaster after it (he was fired in December later that year).

- L_B_R

Thanks for the update good info going forward.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 22 @ 7:16 PM ET
Would love to have them plant one here in Springfield. I know they have done so in Bloomington/Normal.
- 35Tony0


Trade ya a couple of Portillos for a couple of Steak-‘n-Shakes....
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Jul 22 @ 7:17 PM ET
If they accept Trouba at $5.5m, they still have $12.9m in space and only Morrissey, Tanev, and Dano to sign. Morrissey is the only one that should get any real money but still probably not a huge amount. Tanev had only 18 points and Dano only 3 (after playing in only 23 games) - they're looking at 4th line money lbr.

Jets might want to move Myers or Wheeler anyway simply because they're UFA at the end of the year, if they don't resign them.

- L_B_R

Don't forget lanie and then conner in the next 2 years Lanie will want 10 million plus so i think myers should look at maybe or wheeler but don't see him going, we'll see.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 22 @ 7:18 PM ET
Close

1.34-2.03m = 3rd
2.03-4.06m = 2nd
4.06-6.09m = 1st + 3rd
6.09-8.12m = 1st + 2nd + 3rd
8.12-10.15m = 1st + 1st +2n
10.15m and above = 4 x 1st

Most GMs don't offer sheet because 1) the compensation for the guys worth offer sheeting is usually at least in the 1st + 2nd + 3rd pick range (Trouba, for example); 2) rarely does it work (only Penner has moved teams); and 3) there is a negative response from all other GMs. O'Reilly in 2013 was the last player to even be offered and there were reports of other GMs not wanting to work with Feaster after it (he was fired in December later that year).

- L_B_R


If there is that kind of collusion, then Fehr and his suits aren’t doing they’re jobs.
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Jul 22 @ 7:19 PM ET
[quote=Scott1977]Don't forget lanie and then conner in the next 2 years Lanie will want 10 million plus, so i think myers should be at least consider or wheeler but don't see him going, we'll see.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Jul 22 @ 7:24 PM ET
Laine will get $10mil next summer and Ehlers will get at least $5milwith another 25+goal season. Wheeler is also a UFA next year I believe.
- EnzoD

People here very quick to point out Stanbo's miscalculations, overpayments and bad trades and without doubt there has been some, if not many. But what's happening now is other GM's being forced to overpay players who have never won sweet f$ck all. Guys like Jack Eichel. Tavares, Dumba, Trouba, Ryan Johansen, Leon Draisitl, Logan Couture and pretty soon Mathews, Marner and Nylander.

3 Cups in the bank looks pretty good compared with what teams employing these players can expect to get for their money. I like what the Hawks are doing right now restocking the shelves thru the draft and trying to develop those players.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 22 @ 7:44 PM ET
If there is that kind of collusion, then Fehr and his suits aren’t doing they’re jobs.
- StLBravesFan

Fehr probably has much bigger issues to deal with than offer sheets but it is pretty collusiony. But hockey has a lot of handshake style deals, idk if this one is that major.

GMs obviously find offer sheets distasteful in general. Once in a Friedman thoughts article, a GM described offer sheets as something like "ungentlemanly". So at least in part, they don't do them either because it causes bad blood (ala Burke vs Lowe about Penner) or because they don't want another GM to retaliate by offer sheeting their players (like when Lombardi publicly threatened to target RFAs of any team that targeted one of his).

Another reason given was that GMs feel offer sheets inflate player value above their actual worth which will in turn impact other player's contracts. Burke said this was part of why he was angry at Lowe re: Penner. And Yzerman has said that the reason he doesn't like offer sheets is because they'll always be matched unless a team grossly overpays the player. Concerns over salary escalation has been a huge thing to GMs for a while lbr. And he is right - every offer sheet since Penner has been matched because they were pretty much fair value, so all those did was annoy another GM.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Jul 22 @ 8:07 PM ET
People here very quick to point out Stanbo's miscalculations, overpayments and bad trades and without doubt there has been some, if not many. But what's happening now is other GM's being forced to overpay players who have never won sweet f$ck all. Guys like Jack Eichel. Tavares, Dumba, Trouba, Ryan Johansen, Leon Draisitl, Logan Couture and pretty soon Mathews, Marner and Nylander.

3 Cups in the bank looks pretty good compared with what teams employing these players can expect to get for their money. I like what the Hawks are doing right now restocking the shelves thru the draft and trying to develop those players.

- RickJ


StanBo set the bar at about $10mil for 1st line players, that’s for sure.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Jul 22 @ 8:10 PM ET
Fehr probably has much bigger issues to deal with than offer sheets but it is pretty collusiony. But hockey has a lot of handshake style deals, idk if this one is that major.

GMs obviously find offer sheets distasteful in general. Once in a Friedman thoughts article, a GM described offer sheets as something like "ungentlemanly". So at least in part, they don't do them either because it causes bad blood (ala Burke vs Lowe about Penner) or because they don't want another GM to retaliate by offer sheeting their players (like when Lombardi publicly threatened to target RFAs of any team that targeted one of his).

Another reason given was that GMs feel offer sheets inflate player value above their actual worth which will in turn impact other player's contracts. Burke said this was part of why he was angry at Lowe re: Penner. And Yzerman has said that the reason he doesn't like offer sheets is because they'll always be matched unless a team grossly overpays the player. Concerns over salary escalation has been a huge thing to GMs for a while lbr. And he is right - every offer sheet since Penner has been matched because they were pretty much fair value, so all those did was annoy another GM.

- L_B_R

Shea Weber's deal might be an exception to the fair value thought - the Flyers were convinced the Preds at the time didn't have the financial capability to match, especially with so much up front bonus money contained in their offer. What they had was a simple predatory strategy - trade me the player at less than fair value in bodies in return or we offer sheet him with a deal you can't afford to match. But as you say, inevitably the offer was matched after the Preds went to their local bank. (And then traded Weber a couple years later).

One thing we don't know is how many offer sheets are extended that aren't made public because the player chose not to sign them.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Jul 22 @ 8:15 PM ET
StanBo set the bar at about $10mil for 1st line players, that’s for sure.
- EnzoD

But Stanbo paid after winning. Unlike that idiot Pegula n Buffalo who coughed up for guys like Ville Leino and now Jack Eichel the most unaccomplished overpaid player in the NHL.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 22 @ 8:56 PM ET
StanBo set the bar at about $10mil for 1st line players, that’s for sure.
- EnzoD

You need to look at a little farther back on who is setting the bar for cap hit amount - Malkin and Ovechkin both at $9.5m were used by Kane/Toews as their relatively small jump up of only $1m (which is actually lower than the general year-over-year raise average for UFA players of $2.1m over the last 5 years). And they both took up larger chucks on the total cap (along with Crosby). Individual success vs team success can be debated, but those guys were the standard for a while and still are used as comparables for high quality players with no cups (Jamie Benn, Tavares, etc).

Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 37,000 FT
Joined: 07.09.2009

Jul 22 @ 9:15 PM ET
Then you’ll be glad to know that the old man and the family got over $1Billion when they sold the company to Berkshire Partners a couple of years ago.
- StLBravesFan

And the quality has gone down hill ever since.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Jul 23 @ 7:03 AM ET
StanBo set the bar at about $10mil for 1st line players, that’s for sure.
- EnzoD


Those two contracts, at the time, were the least of his mistakes, and Kane's still is.

The Captain, especially after those comments last week, is turning into a big one.

EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Jul 23 @ 7:53 AM ET
You need to look at a little farther back on who is setting the bar for cap hit amount - Malkin and Ovechkin both at $9.5m were used by Kane/Toews as their relatively small jump up of only $1m (which is actually lower than the general year-over-year raise average for UFA players of $2.1m over the last 5 years). And they both took up larger chucks on the total cap (along with Crosby). Individual success vs team success can be debated, but those guys were the standard for a while and still are used as comparables for high quality players with no cups (Jamie Benn, Tavares, etc).
- L_B_R


Malkin, Crosby and Ovechkin’s individual production was far more prolific than Toews ever was (or will be), and Kane only got to that Top 5 in the world level with Panarin on his wing.

The 5 guys making half as much in 81, 2, 10, 4, and 7 were just as crucial to the 3 Cup wins as 88+19. Team sport, and the TEAM’s Cup wins are not a reason to hand out an inflated individual Contract. Proof is in the pudding as it’s going to take damn near a miracle to win a cup while the $21mil in 88+19 are on the books. Toss in about $7 mil for Seabrook (top 10 in AAV for all NHL Dmen and barely a 5D on a good team now) and you have a last place Hawks team with a few guys being overpaid for a TEAM’s past success.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 23 @ 8:12 AM ET
Malkin, Crosby and Ovechkin’s individual production was far more prolific than Toews ever was (or will be), and Kane only got to that Top 5 in the world level with Panarin on his wing.

The 5 guys making half as much in 81, 2, 10, 4, and 7 were just as crucial to the 3 Cup wins as 88+19. Team sport, and the TEAM’s Cup wins are not a reason to hand out an inflated individual Contract. Proof is in the pudding as it’s going to take damn near a miracle to win a cup while the $21mil in 88+19 are on the books. Toss in about $7 mil for Seabrook (top 10 in AAV for all NHL Dmen and barely a 5D on a good team now) and you have a last place Hawks team with a few guys being overpaid for a TEAM’s past success.

- EnzoD

Unless I’m mistaken and not remembering correctly, this downgrading of Toews and Kane was not the general consensus of the pundits nor of the hockey insiders back in the day - Toews was widely considered to be in the picture with The Kid as best center in the league, a Selke winner in 2013 - Kane has always been looked at as a top-5 offensive skater.

I don’t recall much (if any) criticism of those contracts at the time - and with non-winners the likes of McDavid, Matthews, Laine, Eichel, etc. either making - or soon to be making - substantially more - and with the cap increasing from $64.3 to now $79.5 since those contracts were signed....

Stan gets (and deserves) lots of criticism for some contracts he negotiated - but at the time - I’m not sure how much better he could have done with those two.
vshun
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Potomac Falls, VA
Joined: 06.04.2015

Jul 23 @ 9:04 AM ET
Unless I’m mistaken and not remembering correctly, this downgrading of Toews and Kane was not the general consensus of the pundits nor of the hockey insiders back in the day - Toews was widely considered to be in the picture with The Kid as best center in the league, a Selke winner in 2013 - Kane has always been looked at as a top-5 offensive skater.

I don’t recall much (if any) criticism of those contracts at the time - and with non-winners the likes of McDavid, Matthews, Laine, Eichel, etc. either making - or soon to be making - substantially more - and with the cap increasing from $64.3 to now $79.5 since those contracts were signed....

Stan gets (and deserves) lots of criticism for some contracts he negotiated - but at the time - I’m not sure how much better he could have done with those two.

- StLBravesFan

There was enough criticism but it was drowned by a chorus of supporters saying arguments along the lines of
a) Babcock prefers Toews over Crosby so Toews is the best in the world;
b) Well now that they got such big raise they will have to to elevate their game to 10.5mln level (newsflash - it rarely happens).
Indeed as Enzo said it set bad standard for the rest of the league as 1st liners UFAs started to demand Toews money. Some like Yzerman pushed back, and some like LA Kinds paid almost same money to Kopitar.
Same was with Bickell story, there was enough people saying he did not prove it while the chorus of supporters drowned their voices.
Tyler Cameron
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 10.31.2017

Jul 23 @ 9:06 AM ET
*NEW* Blog Up: https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=94048
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 23 @ 11:50 AM ET
Malkin, Crosby and Ovechkin’s individual production was far more prolific than Toews ever was (or will be), and Kane only got to that Top 5 in the world level with Panarin on his wing.

The 5 guys making half as much in 81, 2, 10, 4, and 7 were just as crucial to the 3 Cup wins as 88+19. Team sport, and the TEAM’s Cup wins are not a reason to hand out an inflated individual Contract. Proof is in the pudding as it’s going to take damn near a miracle to win a cup while the $21mil in 88+19 are on the books. Toss in about $7 mil for Seabrook (top 10 in AAV for all NHL Dmen and barely a 5D on a good team now) and you have a last place Hawks team with a few guys being overpaid for a TEAM’s past success.

- EnzoD

Again, Crosby and Ovechkin still make way more than Toews / Kane - which is respective of their individual success. 81/2/10/7 were all signed long term before the cup runs and then Seabrook got paid more after. And one more time for the people in the back, amount of cap hit is not as important as cap % at signing - Seabrook, for example, was actually taking up slightly less of the cap at his current contract to start than he was his old cap hit, despite the amount difference. Kane/Toews % of the cap hit is also lower than Crosby, Ovechkin, and Malkin at time of signing despite being higher.

Also, Kane was top 5 for production since 2013 - he just became top 1 with Panarin but whatever.
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