Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 
Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: What’s on My Mind: Prospects, Possibilities and Ray
Author Message
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 16 @ 4:38 PM ET
Coach Dale would be proud....
- StLBravesFan


You know for decades I'd walk into The Legion and the fathers of the guys I played with and against were/are always in there, it's The Legion. Didn't take 5 minutes before talk of the 3 yrs in a row the Colts met the Rams in the championship for 7-8-9 yr olds, Little League sanctioned of course, 10-25-40 yrs ago.

As time went on the talk went to more how damn fundamentally sound the kids were at that age and away from who won, who had the hit, who threw the shutout. It's these people who are responsible for a whole era of kids who are slaves to, and love, the fundamentals of any sport and being a multi tool team player.

Back in the day when hitting the cut off man, executing a rundown, backing up a throw or sacrificing a runner over, throwing to the right base and/or behind the runner was not only expected but got a cheer. When striking out was not excepted as a by product of swinging for the next county.

Yea man, the Coach Dales of the world.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 16 @ 4:44 PM ET
Saad-Toews-Hossa
Sharp-Vermette-Kane
Ladd-Bolland-Shaw
Bickell-Kruger-Brouwer
Stalberg-Frolik-Teravainen

Keith-Seabrook
Hjalmarsson-Byfuglien
Leddy-Oduya
Campbell-Rozsival (had to)

Crawford
Niemi

- HawksHype

Are you talking about the players when on the Hawks or in their absolute prime? Cause Vermette wasn't 2C quality when he was on the Hawks and I'd take Frolik over Brouwer and Campbell over Leddy.
HawksHype
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.08.2011

Jul 16 @ 4:47 PM ET
Are you talking about the players when on the Hawks or in their absolute prime? Cause Vermette wasn't 2C quality when he was on the Hawks and I'd take Frolik over Brouwer and Campbell over Leddy.
- L_B_R


When they were with the Hawks... more or less just trying to get a bunch of players on a few lines that make sense. If I put together 5 F lines and 4 D lines and you changed 3 people... I'm very OK with it.

I'm also playing favoritism with some players I really liked.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 16 @ 4:48 PM ET
Here is where the myth that the Hawks have "more cap space" really plays a factor.

Yes, the Hawks have more cap to work with, but in proportion to what other teams not saddled with so many large contracts for so few players have to work with, the mathematical principles of proportions will still see the Hawks constrained more than others to add salary or large contracts without quickly losing their space.

- Return of the Roar

They still have a decent amount of space to work with over the next few years, depending on what they do with the current cap space.

Unless Sikura or Edjsell have massive breakout seasons, Schmaltz is the only player looking for a big pay increase next season. They have Ward, Kruger, and Rutta all coming off the books, freeing up over $9m in cap right there - they'll be able to fit him in for sure.

One of Gus or Manning is probably going to be moved out next summer so one of the younger LDs can come up as well (they have too many prospects to be blocked by those guys after this season).

Depending on how they fill the space currently, they could have $9m + $5.5m + $3-5m rise in cap = 17.5-19.5m next season for Schmaltz contract and 20.5-24.5m by the time Debrincat's next contract would kick in.
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jul 16 @ 5:15 PM ET
Here is where the myth that the Hawks have "more cap space" really plays a factor.

Yes, the Hawks have more cap to work with, but in proportion to what other teams not saddled with so many large contracts for so few players have to work with, the mathematical principles of proportions will still see the Hawks constrained more than others to add salary or large contracts without quickly losing their space.

- Return of the Roar


Pens - 9 players signed for 4 more years (or more) $50 mil +/-
Kings - 5 players signed for 4 more years (or more) $38 mil +/-
Tampa - 8 players signed for 4 more years (or more) $50 mil +/-
Hawks - 5 players signed for 4 more years (or more) $38 mil +/-
Sharks - 6 players signed for 4 more years (or more) $42 mil +/-
To name just a few. Take a look at Capfriendly for more teams.

Good teams have little choice but to sign players to long term contracts. Sometimes they turn out to be mistakes. Some sooner rather than later.
pdx2ord
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Portland, OR
Joined: 09.02.2015

Jul 16 @ 5:16 PM ET
To my very untrained eye, this Jokiharju clip looked pretty good

https://twitter.com/Scott...tatus/1018966770634326016
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Jul 16 @ 5:26 PM ET
Are you talking about the players when on the Hawks or in their absolute prime? Cause Vermette wasn't 2C quality when he was on the Hawks and I'd take Frolik over Brouwer and Campbell over Leddy.
- L_B_R


I'd replace Shaw with Versteeg on the 3rd line. Bolland missed a bunch of games but when he played the Ladd-Bolland-Versteeg line was the best 3rd line in the league. Same for the playoffs. What Bolland did to Daniel Sedin and Jumbo Thornton in the playoffs was masterful.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jul 16 @ 5:28 PM ET
Pens - 9 players signed for 4 more years (or more) $50 mil +/-
Kings - 5 players signed for 4 more years (or more) $38 mil +/-
Tampa - 8 players signed for 4 more years (or more) $50 mil +/-
Hawks - 5 players signed for 4 more years (or more) $38 mil +/-
Sharks - 6 players signed for 4 more years (or more) $42 mil +/-
To name just a few. Take a look at Capfriendly for more teams.

Good teams have little choice but to sign players to long term contracts. Sometimes they turn out to be mistakes. Some sooner rather than later.

- -Doh-


Pens 9 players avg contract size $5.55MM
Kings 5 players avg contract size $7.6MM
Tampa 8/$6.25MM
Hawks 5/$7.6MM
Sharks 6/$7MM

Hawks and Kings the worst of that bunch. Doesnt leave much for the rest of the team.
35Tony0
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Springfield, IL
Joined: 05.10.2015

Jul 16 @ 5:30 PM ET
To my very untrained eye, this Jokiharju clip looked pretty good

https://twitter.com/Scott...tatus/1018966770634326016

- pdx2ord

Agree
pdx2ord
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Portland, OR
Joined: 09.02.2015

Jul 16 @ 5:34 PM ET
To my very untrained eye, this Jokiharju clip looked pretty good

https://twitter.com/Scott...tatus/1018966770634326016

- pdx2ord


And against Fortin, last year's darling

https://twitter.com/BySco...tatus/1018967612020199424
SimpleJack
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago , IL
Joined: 05.23.2013

Jul 16 @ 5:43 PM ET
Saad-Toews-Hossa
Sharp-Vermette-Kane
Ladd-Bolland-Shaw
Bickell-Kruger-Brouwer
Stalberg-Frolik-Teravainen

Keith-Seabrook
Hjalmarsson-Byfuglien
Leddy-Oduya
Campbell-Rozsival (had to)

Crawford
Niemi

- HawksHype


Saad-Toews-Kane
Brouwer-Sharp-Hossa
Ladd-Bolland-Versteeg
Shaw-Kruger-Frolik

Keith-Seabrook
Oduya-Hjalmarsson
Leddy-Byfuglien

Crawford
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Jul 16 @ 6:05 PM ET
And against Fortin, last year's darling

https://twitter.com/BySco...tatus/1018967612020199424

- pdx2ord

And another clip of Jokiharju vs. Nilsson.

https://twitter.com/BySco...tatus/1018968202561359873
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jul 16 @ 6:05 PM ET
Just a quick note, Jokiharju has only been a Hawk prospect for a year, not a couple. This is will be the start of his second.

There is a lot of talk because he was one of the best defensemen in the WHL last season and he was saying as early as December last year that he wanted to make the Hawks in his second year. The added "can he play in the AHL or not" throws intrigue on the situation. He's probably above the WHL level, so might as well focus on his path for some nice PR of a quality prospect.

- L_B_R


There was a note in one of Powers’ articles (I think the latest) that said Portland would likely not fight the Hawks if they wanted to send him to the AHL.
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Jul 16 @ 6:56 PM ET
Saad-Toews-Hossa
Sharp-Vermette-Kane
Ladd-Bolland-Shaw
Bickell-Kruger-Brouwer
Stalberg-Frolik-Teravainen

Keith-Seabrook
Hjalmarsson-Byfuglien
Leddy-Oduya
Campbell-Rozsival (had to)

Crawford
Niemi

- HawksHype

forgot Richards & Emery
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 16 @ 6:58 PM ET
They still have a decent amount of space to work with over the next few years, depending on what they do with the current cap space.

Unless Sikura or Edjsell have massive breakout seasons, Schmaltz is the only player looking for a big pay increase next season. They have Ward, Kruger, and Rutta all coming off the books, freeing up over $9m in cap right there - they'll be able to fit him in for sure.

One of Gus or Manning is probably going to be moved out next summer so one of the younger LDs can come up as well (they have too many prospects to be blocked by those guys after this season).

Depending on how they fill the space currently, they could have $9m + $5.5m + $3-5m rise in cap = 17.5-19.5m next season for Schmaltz contract and 20.5-24.5m by the time Debrincat's next contract would kick in.

- L_B_R


And assuming Crow can still play he'll be off the books after the 19/20 season. But since you love numbers, and I know you don't just lose a players salary that it has to be replaced, maybe you can try and prognosticate what might fill the 4-5-6-7-8 salaries lost.

Agree with both you and Roar. The Hossa money gets taken up by Schmaltz. Dcat takes who's money? Who takes Ward money, and on and on?

Shows the importance of StanBow taking care to not be a goof. But in no way are they near the cap hell they once were.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 16 @ 7:17 PM ET
To my very untrained eye, this Jokiharju clip looked pretty good

https://twitter.com/Scott...tatus/1018966770634326016

- pdx2ord


Thank you........ Powers has 15 or so clips of most any player anyone wants to see on his Twitter thingy: Verified account @ByScottPowers https://twitter.com/ByScottPowers

Joki looks square, balanced and strong. Entwistle is a leggy kid. Soderland by far the quickest. Wise just looks and moves like a centerman, squares the opponent up. Love that low center of gravity this kid shows.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 16 @ 7:22 PM ET
There was a note in one of Powers’ articles (I think the latest) that said Portland would likely not fight the Hawks if they wanted to send him to the AHL.
- Chunk


Yes, the assumption is Joki was "loaned" to Portland the season the Hawks drafted him meaning he was drafted while property of a Euro team and not subject to The Indentured Servitude Clause. All that means is the kid can play AHL at 19 which is huuuuuge for his development.

Not much left in Major Junior for him except a wasted yr.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 16 @ 8:02 PM ET
Big Al on a podcast: https://twitter.com/AlCimaglia
Hardbalz
Joined: 06.08.2011

Jul 16 @ 8:03 PM ET
All he has to do is "luck" into 15 goals as a 3rd liner then some dumb ass team (Montreal, Florida, Vegas, LAK) will pay him 6x6 the following off season.
- mrpaulish

I think a dumbass team would tie up over thirty scmil to an over the hill gang of thirty somethings. Seabrook SIX MORE YEARS at 6.87 (lol). Toews five more at 10.5 Keith until he's 40 at 5.5. Saad three more at 6.0 and he gets 35 pts Good comment
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 16 @ 8:07 PM ET
And assuming Crow can still play he'll be off the books after the 19/20 season. But since you love numbers, and I know you don't just lose a players salary that it has to be replaced, maybe you can try and prognosticate what might fill the 4-5-6-7-8 salaries lost.

Agree with both you and Roar. The Hossa money gets taken up by Schmaltz. Dcat takes who's money? Who takes Ward money, and on and on?

Shows the importance of StanBow taking care to not be a goof. But in no way are they near the cap hell they once were.

- Mr Ricochet

Hopefully, they're replacing those guys with internal solutions or smarter FA pick-ups. Ward is replaced by one of the in-system goalies making a 3rd or less his cap hit; two of Rutta/Gus/Manning are replaced by ELC defenseman that are now ready to transition at obviously lower hits; Kunitz will probably be replaced by a similar vet. Either way, the money on these players would hopefully be half the cap hit or less next year. They can hopefully allocate (or have allocated depending on any trades coming in this season) cap space to better players / players in areas of weakness.

So for sure, salaries have to be replaced, but even if replacement is basically 1-for-1 (except for Ward, hopefully the next backup will be less), every year the cap rising means that more space becomes available to play with. It's all about % of total cap or cap share and less about amount imo. Balance, like with most things, is key.

We all accept that as the cap rises, every cap hit become a smaller and smaller percentage year over year, yes? This is where the value of ELC / RFA players really come into play - their cap hits stay relatively the same with mostly moderate rises even though the cap share gets smaller and smaller over time. Schmaltz could get the same deal that Kane/Toews got on their second contracts but it wouldn't impact the cap the same at all. Like:

Schmaltz gets $6.3m x 6 and the cap rises between $3-5m, his share of the cap will be 7.4-7.6%, which is a good bit lower than Kane's cap share of 11.09% in 2010-11 despite the amounts/hit being exact the same. Kane is the better player obvs which is why his share is bigger even though the cap hit / salaries are the same. Hossa's $6m deal in 2005-06 has the same share amount at signing as Kane/Toews's $10.5m did that their signing. UFA's are somewhat different because their cap hits rise fairly in tandem with the league cap and their shares remain even with only moderate raise (typically no more than a 3-4% raise).

Signing Schmaltz and eventually Debrincat to their higher end bridge deals should be possible because RFA cap hits are fairly stagnant while the cap is not supposed to be (but no guarantee obvs). Now obvs nothing is a guarantee, but this is fairly true historically. And luckily Schmaltz-Debrincat's contracts do not impact at the same time - Debrincat has two cap rises before then (all things go according to plan). The staggering nature of when the ELC/RFA contracts switch will be key and the FO/Bowman will need to be smart about all of this for it to actually work out.

StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 16 @ 8:22 PM ET
Hopefully, they're replacing those guys with internal solutions or smarter FA pick-ups. Ward is replaced by one of the in-system goalies making a 3rd or less his cap hit; two of Rutta/Gus/Manning are replaced by ELC defenseman that are now ready to transition at obviously lower hits; Kunitz will probably be replaced by a similar vet. Either way, the money on these players would hopefully be half the cap hit or less next year. They can hopefully allocate (or have allocated depending on any trades coming in this season) cap space to better players / players in areas of weakness.

So for sure, salaries have to be replaced, but even if replacement is basically 1-for-1 (except for Ward, hopefully the next backup will be less), every year the cap rising means that more space becomes available to play with. It's all about % of total cap or cap share and less about amount imo. Balance, like with most things, is key.

We all accept that as the cap rises, every cap hit become a smaller and smaller percentage year over year, yes? This is where the value of ELC / RFA players really come into play - their cap hits stay relatively the same with mostly moderate rises even though the cap share gets smaller and smaller over time. Schmaltz could get the same deal that Kane/Toews got on their second contracts but it wouldn't impact the cap the same at all. Like:

Schmaltz gets $6.3m x 6 and the cap rises between $3-5m, his share of the cap will be 7.4-7.6%, which is a good bit lower than Kane's cap share of 11.09% in 2010-11 despite the amounts/hit being exact the same. Kane is the better player obvs which is why his share is bigger even though the cap hit / salaries are the same. Hossa's $6m deal in 2005-06 has the same share amount at signing as Kane/Toews's $10.5m did that their signing. UFA's are somewhat different because their cap hits rise fairly in tandem with the league cap and their shares remain even with only moderate raise (typically no more than a 3-4% raise).

Signing Schmaltz and eventually Debrincat to their higher end bridge deals should be possible because RFA cap hits are fairly stagnant while the cap is not supposed to be (but no guarantee obvs). Now obvs nothing is a guarantee, but this is fairly true historically. And luckily Schmaltz-Debrincat's contracts do not impact at the same time - Debrincat has two cap rises before then (all things go according to plan). The staggering nature of when the ELC/RFA contracts switch will be key and the FO/Bowman will need to be smart about all of this for it to actually work out.


- L_B_R


Yes - that’s simple math.

Also simple math: for four years (20114-15 to last year) the cap increased by only a total of $6MM (from $69 to $75 - $2.4/$1.6/$2.0) and required approval of an increasing escalator by the players.

Just because the cap increased by a higher amount for this coming season doesn’t project to similar increases going forward.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Jul 16 @ 8:45 PM ET
Thank you........ Powers has 15 or so clips of most any player anyone wants to see on his Twitter thingy: Verified account @ByScottPowers https://twitter.com/ByScottPowers

Joki looks square, balanced and strong. Entwistle is a leggy kid. Soderland by far the quickest. Wise just looks and moves like a centerman, squares the opponent up. Love that low center of gravity this kid shows.

- Mr Ricochet

I noticed that about Wise, too. He uses his body well to get positioning and uses his lower center of gravity to his advantage. He's 5'10" or 11" but stocky and built.

Krys was good as well with using body positioning during 1:1 drills. I think he may surprise and possibly leap frog his way up the blueline depth chart. One way to stand out amongst the glut of offensive d-men is to play solid defense. He may separate himself from the pack if he builds off of his sophomore year at BU where coaches praised his marked improvement with play away from the puck.
Slofire94
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: CA
Joined: 01.17.2016

Jul 16 @ 8:50 PM ET
I noticed that about Wise, too. He uses his body well to get positioning and uses his lower center of gravity to his advantage. He's 5'10" or 11" but stocky and built.

Krys was good as well with using body positioning during 1:1 drills. I think he may surprise and possibly leap frog his way up the blueline depth chart. One way to stand out amongst the glut of offensive d-men is to play solid defense. He may separate himself from the pack if he builds off of his sophomore year at BU where coaches praised his marked improvement with play away from the puck.

- AEL_Fox


We could use hammer 2.0
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 16 @ 8:58 PM ET
Yes - that’s simple math.

Also simple math: for four years (20114-15 to last year) the cap increased by only a total of $6MM (from $69 to $75 - $2.4/$1.6/$2.0) and required approval of an increasing escalator by the players.

Just because the cap increased by a higher amount for this coming season doesn’t project to similar increases going forward.

- StLBravesFan

Duh there's no guarantee but it's unlikely the NHLPA will ever let the cap be stagnant - it would hurt too many of them. They might opt not to do the escalator in a season when it's not as need - say when the cap would rise $5m+ on it's own - but until that happens they're likely going to use the option.

This past season is a perfect example - the NHLPA used the lowest % they'd done before and the cap still rose $4.5m. Without the escalator, the cap would have still been at $78.0-2m or something similar, which would make the increase about $3m, the low end I mentioned in my other post (same as the average for the last two years cap rises).

As long as there is even minor rise in the cap (though there should hopefully be more). cap hit shares decrease - and if ELC/RFA cap hits stay fairly even (as they have typically done), then they will be 'better' deals than predecessors with same cap hits.

Anyway, you and I have had the debate over the escalator a few too many times and we'll never agree lbh. Though I'll point out that I've technically been right - that they will opt for the escalator - every time since we started discussing this 3-4 years ago lol.
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Jul 16 @ 8:59 PM ET
Saad-Toews-Hossa
Sharp-Vermette-Kane
Ladd-Bolland-Shaw
Bickell-Kruger-Brouwer
Stalberg-Frolik-Teravainen

Keith-Seabrook
Hjalmarsson-Byfuglien
Leddy-Oduya
Campbell-Rozsival (had to)

Crawford
Niemi

- HawksHype

My recollection was that Buff was a wing with the Blackhawks in 2010.
Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13  Next