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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: What’s on My Mind: Prospects, Possibilities and Ray
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breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jul 16 @ 2:24 PM ET
Wouldn't it be great if the team rebounded next year with Toews, Seabrook, Saad and Keith playing like older versions of themselves and DKat, Schmaltz and Hayden bringing it up to the next level?

Keith made so many mistakes, Toews couldn't control the puck down low like he used to and Saad just couldn't score on the plethora of chances he had. A little better performance from those guys and slightly more solid goaltending I think we can at least sneak them into the playoffs. We were on the border up to Crawfords second extended absence and then we completely fell off the cliff.

- Popsghostly


It will also help if they managed to get shots through on the PP and maybe find a way for AA to be less of a train wreck at even strength. Maybe get some two way play out of whomever Kane is playing with, because giving up nearly 1 5v5 goal per game by that line was not helping anything.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 16 @ 2:24 PM ET
Now that Jokiharju has been 'Hawk property for a couple years, I wonder if their talking about him more is both:
Natural progression of a young draftee, and;
A means of pre-empting too much talk about this year's new young draftees.

RIP Ray Emery.

- 35Tony0

Just a quick note, Jokiharju has only been a Hawk prospect for a year, not a couple. This is will be the start of his second.

There is a lot of talk because he was one of the best defensemen in the WHL last season and he was saying as early as December last year that he wanted to make the Hawks in his second year. The added "can he play in the AHL or not" throws intrigue on the situation. He's probably above the WHL level, so might as well focus on his path for some nice PR of a quality prospect.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 16 @ 2:25 PM ET
how does Hino get 1.5 and panik 2.9 and Hartman gets $875? he had 19 goals one year ago all 5 X 5. Bowman is just to much on f puss over in regards to contracts.
- kmw4631

Arbitration eligibility.
Popsghostly
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wheaton, IL
Joined: 08.11.2017

Jul 16 @ 2:28 PM ET
It will also help if they managed to get shots through on the PP and maybe find a way for AA to be less of a train wreck at even strength. Maybe get some two way play out of whomever Kane is playing with, because giving up nearly 1 5v5 goal per game by that line was not helping anything.
- breadbag


Totally agree. Nothing like a failed PP to lose momentum. They just couldn't get shots though on the PP. I seriously thought Keith was aiming for shinpads.
Cmonalready
Joined: 07.02.2012

Jul 16 @ 2:34 PM ET
I'm just really surprised to see talk on this board of Schmaltz getting a big contract. He just doesnt seem to have put together enough of a body of work to justify either the $$ or the term. For instance, a 5 year, $5m contract would seem a huge commitment to his production to date. Could look very bad in the future.

I would think more like 3-4 years, $4m. Or even a bridge deal at 2 years, $3m.

I'm no expert here. It just seems to me he's way short of enough ice time to justify 5x5 or better.
riozzo
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Cornwallis Island
Joined: 06.17.2014

Jul 16 @ 2:36 PM ET
Arbitration eligibility.
- L_B_R

This board would be boring without the salary cap.
Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 37,000 FT
Joined: 07.09.2009

Jul 16 @ 2:47 PM ET
This board would be boring without the salary cap.
- riozzo

Pleasantly boring
pdx2ord
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Portland, OR
Joined: 09.02.2015

Jul 16 @ 2:50 PM ET
Can't tell if his usual sarcasm/snarkiness or if he is serious (tho 2nd tweet tells me it might be the former). Will wait to see how Powers and others feel, but:

Mark Lazerus
@MarkLazerus

Boy, I'm pretty underwhelmed by Adam Boqvist so far. He hasn't popped at all while skating back and forth between the blue lines.

And the way he's standing while listening to the coaches describe the next drill? He's got bust written all over him. #analytics

DBC was reported as a likely bust after the standard drills, too.
BlazinMike
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 05.08.2013

Jul 16 @ 2:51 PM ET
Pleasantly boring
- Ogilthorpe2


What would a super team comprised of players from each of the 3 cup runs look like?

breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jul 16 @ 2:56 PM ET
Can't tell if his usual sarcasm/snarkiness or if he is serious (tho 2nd tweet tells me it might be the former). Will wait to see how Powers and others feel, but:

Mark Lazerus
@MarkLazerus

Boy, I'm pretty underwhelmed by Adam Boqvist so far. He hasn't popped at all while skating back and forth between the blue lines.

And the way he's standing while listening to the coaches describe the next drill? He's got bust written all over him. #analytics

DBC was reported as a likely bust after the standard drills, too.

- pdx2ord


Sounds like total sarcasm to me.
riozzo
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Cornwallis Island
Joined: 06.17.2014

Jul 16 @ 3:01 PM ET
What would a super team comprised of players from each of the 3 cup runs look like?
- BlazinMike

Kane
Toews
Hossa
Keith
Seabrook
Hammer
Crawford
Part canes
Part yotes
pdx2ord
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Portland, OR
Joined: 09.02.2015

Jul 16 @ 3:02 PM ET
Sounds like total sarcasm to me.
- breadbag


Yeah

Powers is posting video clips

https://twitter.com/BySco...tatus/1018931199316758528
TommyHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.23.2013

Jul 16 @ 3:02 PM ET
Can't tell if his usual sarcasm/snarkiness or if he is serious (tho 2nd tweet tells me it might be the former). Will wait to see how Powers and others feel, but:

Mark Lazerus
@MarkLazerus

Boy, I'm pretty underwhelmed by Adam Boqvist so far. He hasn't popped at all while skating back and forth between the blue lines.

And the way he's standing while listening to the coaches describe the next drill? He's got bust written all over him. #analytics

DBC was reported as a likely bust after the standard drills, too.

- pdx2ord

That is blatant red font if you ask me. Lazarus thinks he’s funny sometimes.
BlazinMike
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 05.08.2013

Jul 16 @ 3:08 PM ET
Kane
Toews
Hossa
Keith
Seabrook
Hammer
Crawford
Part canes
Part yotes

- riozzo


Also, versteeg and Frolik
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 16 @ 3:16 PM ET
I'm just really surprised to see talk on this board of Schmaltz getting a big contract. He just doesnt seem to have put together enough of a body of work to justify either the $$ or the term. For instance, a 5 year, $5m contract would seem a huge commitment to his production to date. Could look very bad in the future.

I would think more like 3-4 years, $4m. Or even a bridge deal at 2 years, $3m.

I'm no expert here. It just seems to me he's way short of enough ice time to justify 5x5 or better.

- Cmonalready

Short bridge deals are not as common for top 6 forwards anymore - teams have been locking them up for 5/6 year since pre-Kane/Toews era.

Here are Schmaltz's most direct comparables - I added age and TOI in minutes since the last time I post this.



As you can see, they range from $4-6.75m x 6-8 years (well, Tarasenko is $7.5m but he's an outlier). Of the players who signed a year early, their team was able to get a better deal - all but Gaudreau are on the lower end of the spectrum. Players who waited to sign after their final ELC year were able to get more value by waiting.

If Schmaltz signed now, he most definitely qualifies to be in the Landeskog / Drouin type of deal - $5.5m x 6/7 years. If he waits until next year and puts up 65 points, he'll put himself firmly in the Monahan / Scheifele range. Add in that general cap rise means contracts rise, he could get more than them. If Schmaltz waits, look to see what Larkin signs for this year because Schmaltz will get close to that next year for sure since they have the same agent (who is one of the types that wants it all).
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jul 16 @ 3:23 PM ET
Short bridge deals are not as common for top 6 forwards anymore - teams have been locking them up for 5/6 year since pre-Kane/Toews era.

Here are Schmaltz's most direct comparables - I added age and TOI in minutes since the last time I post this.



As you can see, they range from $4-6.75m x 6-8 years (well, Tarasenko is $7.5m but he's an outlier). Of the players who signed a year early, their team was able to get a better deal - all but Gaudreau are on the lower end of the spectrum. Players who waited to sign after their final ELC year were able to get more value by waiting.

If Schmaltz signed now, he most definitely qualifies to be in the Landeskog / Drouin type of deal - $5.5m x 6/7 years. If he waits until next year and puts up 65 points, he'll put himself firmly in the Monahan / Scheifele range. Add in that general cap rise means contracts rise, he could get more than them. If Schmaltz waits, look to see what Larkin signs for this year because Schmaltz will get close to that next year for sure since they have the same agent (who is one of the types that wants it all).

- L_B_R


Which is why his agent should be fired if he signs now, and why, unless Stan overpays, he wont be signed this season.

Tell you right now, I would much rather have Scheifele than Schmaltz for equal money.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Jul 16 @ 3:33 PM ET
I'm just really surprised to see talk on this board of Schmaltz getting a big contract. He just doesnt seem to have put together enough of a body of work to justify either the $$ or the term. For instance, a 5 year, $5m contract would seem a huge commitment to his production to date. Could look very bad in the future.

I would think more like 3-4 years, $4m. Or even a bridge deal at 2 years, $3m.

I'm no expert here. It just seems to me he's way short of enough ice time to justify 5x5 or better.

- Cmonalready


Thats what a 40pt center garners. If he dumps another 50-60 points this year then its an easy 5 million per maybe closer to 6
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jul 16 @ 3:42 PM ET
Thats what a 40pt center garners. If he dumps another 50-60 points this year then its an easy 5 million per maybe closer to 6
- fattybeef


Here is where the myth that the Hawks have "more cap space" really plays a factor.

Yes, the Hawks have more cap to work with, but in proportion to what other teams not saddled with so many large contracts for so few players have to work with, the mathematical principles of proportions will still see the Hawks constrained more than others to add salary or large contracts without quickly losing their space.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 16 @ 3:52 PM ET
Which is why his agent should be fired if he signs now, and why, unless Stan overpays, he wont be signed this season.

Tell you right now, I would much rather have Scheifele than Schmaltz for equal money.

- Return of the Roar

His agent should never be fired for securing a deal. They have to weigh the possibility of injury or having a down year, etc etc. This year or next, either way Schmaltz is likely getting paid.

To get Scheifele, the Hawks would have had to be a bottom 10 team during their cup years. Would you give up those building years to cups 2+3? They're extremely lucky to find a player of Schmaltz's caliber in the mid rounds and that he's developing strongly.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jul 16 @ 3:53 PM ET
Thats what a 40pt center garners. If he dumps another 50-60 points this year then its an easy 5 million per maybe closer to 6
- fattybeef


Odds are good he does it. He got off to a slow start with 4 points in his first 26 games, which is why he got demoted to the AHL. Since he was called up he seems to have been on a 55 point pace fairly consistently. 83rd in NHL forward total points over that span of nearly 1.5 seasons. Many of those points are at even strength so he could expand his point totals if the Hawks get him going consistently on the PP because his actual PP time is farther down the list. I think he is also showing he can be trusted in all situations with how well he handed the PK duty he did last year.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 16 @ 3:54 PM ET
Thats what a 40pt center garners. If he dumps another 50-60 points this year then its an easy 5 million per maybe closer to 6
- fattybeef

Definitely closer to 6.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 16 @ 4:23 PM ET
Here is where the myth that the Hawks have "more cap space" really plays a factor.

Yes, the Hawks have more cap to work with, but in proportion to what other teams not saddled with so many large contracts for so few players have to work with, the mathematical principles of proportions will still see the Hawks constrained more than others to add salary or large contracts without quickly losing their space.

- Return of the Roar


Very good post. In it's totality the Hawks are in great cap shape in this window right now but the Toews and Seabs contracts will continue to hurt as they are nowhere near playing to them. Even that aside they don't have elite young players to pay anymore, but will be able to pay Dcat and Schmaltz, so they will avoid the total cap hell they've been in for much of the last 6-7 yrs.


HawksHype
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.08.2011

Jul 16 @ 4:30 PM ET
What would a super team comprised of players from each of the 3 cup runs look like?
- BlazinMike


Saad-Toews-Hossa
Sharp-Vermette-Kane
Ladd-Bolland-Shaw
Bickell-Kruger-Brouwer
Stalberg-Frolik-Teravainen

Keith-Seabrook
Hjalmarsson-Byfuglien
Leddy-Oduya
Campbell-Rozsival (had to)

Crawford
Niemi
Spec41971
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Rolling meadows, IL
Joined: 03.04.2017

Jul 16 @ 4:32 PM ET
"Sheeeeiiiittttttt" -Senator Clay Davis
- mrpaulish


“Double Sheeeeiiiitttttttt” - Spec41971
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jul 16 @ 4:33 PM ET
Water always finds its own level.

Hartman is a 3rd/4th line NHL guy. Until he gets his game more disciplined he will most likely stay on the 4th line. Those who thought he was the second coming of Andrew Shaw were sadly mistaken.

- Return of the Roar


THIS!
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