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Not that anyone asked, but because I am a list person and completist (everyone has a bit of OCD, mine has always been hockey), it was going to drive me insane if I did the Western Conference but didn't do the Eastern Conference
As always: Just my opinions, for fun. I can/will be wrong. Just how I see these teams, at this point of the summer.
Also, to be clear: This one is a lot harder than the West. The East has a bunch of teams that, to me, are really, really close together. With the exception of Ottawa and likely Montreal, a case could be made for each team to finish no worse than 10th -- yes, even the Islanders, post-Tavares.
Eastern Conference predictions, mid-July
16. Ottawa: Well. Wow. With or without Erik Karlsson, this is just a bad, bad hockey team. It's not that they don't have some good pieces -- they actually do. Mark Stone is a really good piece. Thomas Chabot is a good prospect on defense and is gaining experience. They should get something good for Karlsson, at least one truly good piece, if they move him. If they keep him to start the season, then obviously that would be awkward, but he's still an elite player. But the gap between them and the rest of the Eastern Conference is significant enough to where while no team is ever really hopeless, you look at what Ottawa is currently and what they project to have coming, and you realize this might be the toughest roster to overhaul in the sport
15. Montreal: The problem with Shea Weber being hurt is that it can be argued that no unit on any team needs a specific player more than Montreal's defense needs Weber. It doesn't mean he's the best defenseman in the league. It means that without him, the gap between Montreal's ability to match up against top lines -- they simply are going to be overwhelmed in that regard, night after night after night, until he returns. The gap between Weber and their other defensemen is that significant. That being said: It's not necessarily horrific in Montreal -- again, they have more pieces than some might think. A healthy Carey Price can hide some things, if they play a system that limits quality shots. The problem, of course, is that they are in the hard spot of having to depend on young players to produce at Top 6 levels on offense, especially if they move Max Patches for a combination of a younger roster player and futures. I personally think Montreal will be a better team at the end of the year than they will at the beginning, as some of their younger players eat hard minutes and get better. But it's gonna be a long 3-4 months before they start to see it
14. New Jersey: Taylor Hall is a beast. Nico Hischier looks like a young Nicklas Backstrom with more speed. Kyle Palmieri and a healthy Marcus Johansson are legit NHL Top 6/9 forwards, and Sami Vatanen and Damon Severson are solid NHL defensemen, second-pairing quality. It's not all bad in New Jersey. But the biggest reason why I thought Taylor Hall was a deserving candidate for MVP last year is that if you look at the Devils roster objectively, they really do need a couple more pieces. I do think last year was an aberration for what their talent base was, and while I think it's awesome that Hall finally got to play some playoff games, at this point of the summer, I think they are a prime candidate to take a step back next season
13. New York Islanders: To be honest, I don't think it's all bad for the Isles. Yeah, losing a No. 1 center for nothing -- that's ridiculous. You can't let that happen. You just can't. But they did, and at some point, you gotta look at what they have left. They have enough pieces to where they can honestly say they're maybe not rebuilding -- Lamoriello didn't help them much, IMO, by bringing in Flip and Komarov, but again, it's what he did. Barry Trotz can possibly hide them with some of the talent that the Isles do have -- and they do have some. Is Mat Barzal ready to be a No. 1 center? That's a heavy lift, night after night. But he's gonna produce points. He just is. That means that you're still gonna get production out of Anders Lee and Josh Bailey. Jordan Eberle is probably gonna get 20 goals and 50 points, if they get anywhere close to competent play out of Brock Nelson, etc. They should have enough offense to win games. The question is on defense. It's so hard to find good defensemen, and if the Isles' forwards aren't able to tighten up defensively, their defense isn't going to be able to suppress enough shots for that goaltending to hold up. The Isles will probably be somewhat entertaining but ultimately not good enough to move higher in the conference
12. New York Rangers: After admitting that their core simply wasn't good enough to contend last season, it's to be expected that the Rags aren't going to set the league on fire next season. They have some good pieces and talented youngsters coming in, and Henrik Lundqvist is going to provide stability in net. They're likely going to look like all teams that are rebuilding on the fly that have some good pieces: Some nights, Chris Kreider or Mika Zibanejad are gonna pop a couple, Kevin Shattenkirk is gonna score on the PP, and Lundqvist is gonna stone you and a good team is gonna get beat 3-2 by the Rags and you might think they are on their way. But over 82 games, they simply aren't going to have enough secondary scoring and consistency from their defense to finish higher
11. Detroit: You could just about copy-and-paste the Islanders projection with Detroit's, just change some names. I'm not as down on the overall talent level of the Red Wings as some, especially their forwards. I actually kinda like them, especially if Filip Zadina truly is a legit, stone-cold finisher. I thought Jonathan Bernier was a good signing and will help solidify their goaltending, as well. The problem with Detroit is that their defense is just bad. There's no way around it. There's not enough good defensemen in the NHL to go around, and Detroit has too many guys who will be eating minutes that they simply should not be playing. But if someone told me that come next March, Detroit has found a way to be around the 8-10 position in the conference, I wouldn't be shocked. I think they have enough pieces with enough experience that they could punch a little above their weight for a lot of the upcoming season
10. Buffalo: Finally -- FINALLY -- some progress should happen for this team. The problem? It might not be a stratospheric leap. Why? Even though they have improved much of their talent and depth, even after shipping out Ryan O'Reilly, it's simply too much of a heavy lift to ask Rasmus Dahlin to stabilize a very, very, very ordinary defense. Jack Eichel is a tremendous player, and Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Ristolainen and Marco Scandella are good NHL players, as is Jake McCabe. Patrik Berglund and Vladimir Sobotka will help fill roles. The Sabres aren't going to be bad. They are going to show real progress. It's just I don't think they're quite ready to be really good yet. Next year around this time? Maybe so
9. Carolina: This is where it starts to get REALLY, REALLY, DIFFICULT. The 6-9 slots in the Eastern Conference are going to be absolutely ridiculous -- it could be argued than ANY of the teams I list right now could finish with 96-plus points. But at some point, you gotta make decisions, and I think the Hurricanes -- for as talented as they are, and they are talented enough to make this prediction look stupid -- will eventually falter. Why? The goaltending. Scott Darling probably won't be as bad as he was last season. Probably. But we all saw what Petr Mrazek brings to the table if Darling does look like a sieve again, and if the Hurricanes need Mrazek to save their season, then it's fair to say that we can hazard a guess how that's gonna end. Which is too bad, in some respects, because the Hurricanes have a tremendous, modern-age defense, and Sebastian Aho is a difference-maker. Jordan Staal is still a good, two-way center -- there are pieces there. But at some point, you gotta draw the line, and while I think Dougie Hamilton is a really good player, I still think after 82 games, the Hurricanes are coming up short. Maybe barely
8. Columbus: This is going to be a tricky situation for the Blue Jackets, who as of this moment are going to enter the season under the weight of the Artemi Panarin situation where he simply just might not be interested in signing. Old friend Sergei Bobrovsky is UFA at season's end, as well. It doesn't mean that CBJ won't get him signed -- I assume they will until shown otherwise -- but it's the little things that are gonna separate the playoff teams in the East, and I think it's the Blue Jackets who are gonna blink just enough to finish eighth. There's a lot to like about this team, though -- Riley Nash was a sneaky-good signing for what they have on the NHL roster, and Zach Werenski-Seth Jones is just an absolutely ridiculous pairing on defense. All things being equal, Bob's gonna stop enough shots to where the Blue Jackets aren't gonna miss the playoffs
7. Florida: I think pretty much everyone who was paying attention at the end of last season realizes the truth: If the season had been one week longer, the Panthers would've been in the playoffs. Unless Mike Hoffman and his WAG come down to Miami carrying their Ottawa Dynamite and blow up another dressing room (allegedly), then he and his 25-30 goals should be enough to help get this team into the playoffs with room to spare. Sasha Barkov is simply a tremendous player, for those who haven't watched a lot of Panthers games, by the way
6. Our very own Philadelphia Flyers: First, the disclaimer: I tried very hard to consider the weaknesses of this team -- the brittle goaltending that isn't special, the years-long inability to kill penalties, the lack of physicality on defense -- and project if it it continued this season, would it be enough to make this miss the playoffs. I tried very hard to not be a homer on this. But to be honest, all things being equal because you simply cannot predict injuries to key players, I don't see how this team doesn't get 100 points. Claude Giroux doesn't even have to get 80 points, that's how significant it was to get JVR signed. There's simply no reason to believe JVR's not going to get 25 goals and 50-55 points. There's no rational basis to believe that's not going to happen, and if it does, the Flyers should be able to score enough to offset some weaknesses. We all know what Provorov and Ghost are, as players -- but it's possible that Provorov could get even a little better, as he has gained more experience. Travis Sanheim would really help if he makes himself someone who the coach won't want to scratch, and yes, it would be nice to know that whoever the 3C is will be productive and effective. But really, while the Flyers aren't perfect, they have enough talent and depth to ensure playoff hockey come next June
5. Pittsburgh: Yeah, at some point, Crosby/Malkin are gonna slip, and the decline is going to be significant. But that time probably isn't now. I could write a ton more words about them but really, we know what this team is: A legitimate Stanley Cup contender. They still have enough pieces who are going to produce in clutch time where no one should be surprised if they win the Eastern Conference next year. We can hate the players, but this is still an extremely dangerous team -- and as much as it pains me to admit it, there's maybe still enough of a gap between them and the Flyers to be irritating
4. Washington (obviously, if they win the division they'll be second for seeding purposes): This is a very interesting team. How will they handle success? Will they pull the chute and coast during the regular season? Or are they gonna come back seriously hungry for more? Truthfully, I think it's going to be closer to the latter than the former -- this is a team that has been extremely productive in the regular season for the last five years. Now, all the pressure in the world has been lifted off of some very talented, key players who should still be productive. If they buy in to what Todd Reirden is selling -- and I think they're going to try to do just that -- then there's plenty of reason to see this team being solid from start to finish last year, if they do come into camp with the mindset of grinding it out for 82 games. Very, very quietly, Nicklas Backstrom slid down the depth chart to become maybe the most accomplished No. 2 center in the league, though the next team on this list might have something to say about that
3. Toronto: Matthews-Tavares-Kadri. Man, that's just crazy. It is. In a league where most teams don't have a No. 1 center, Toronto has two. In a team where most teams don't have two Top-6 caliber centers, Toronto has three. No, that doesn't solve every problem a team can have, but at some point, you gotta acknowledge the truth of things: Matthews-Tavares-Kadri is about as good as it's gonna get, in the salary cap era. But at the same time, for as good as the Leafs are going to be -- because just as importantly, Frederik Andersen is a damn good goaltender -- the concerns on defense are legitimate. It's not that the Leafs have a bad defense -- that's overplayed. Morgan Reilly is a legit top pairing defenseman, Travis Dermott is a legit prospect/young player, and Ron Hainsey is a capable player who, if playing the correct minutes and usage, is a top-6 defenseman. The problem is that when you're running up against the likes of the Bruins and Lightning, you gotta have another no-doubt guy, and for all the things Jake Gardiner does well, he's not that guy. The Leafs are gonna have to make that hard call: How much do you want to pay to upgrade on Jake Gardiner? Who is that player you are going to target? Are you willing to roll the dice on Matthews and Marner's ELC-status for one more year? Tough decisions to make, but better than being in the lottery
2. Boston: First, an honest admission: I was one of the people who mocked Don Sweeney as the GM a few years ago, when they promoted him and traded Dougie Hamilton, then went off the board in the first round during his first draft. The bottom line is this: Sweeney and his management team have successfully managed to rebuild a team on the fly that won the Cup in 2011 to one that I wouldn't be at all surprised if they won the East in 2018/19. They, like just about everyone else, have some flaws -- no team is perfect. But Charlie McAvoy is a damn good defenseman already, Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak is absolutely terrifying as a line, and while Tuuka Rask needs to be a little tougher and tighter in the playoffs, he's still a legit No. 1 goaltender in the NHL. Just a damn good team, and if they find a way to snag another young, top-6 center so they can start to move David Krejci down the lineup...yikes. That's why they were in on John Tavares and why I was glad he didn't go there
1. Tampa Bay: The reigning Norris Trophy winner in his prime. A Vezina finalist in goal just entering his prime. A 100-point winger in his absolute prime. Man. You can go on and on about this team right now, because while they aren't perfect -- they're going to have to retool the defense on the fly, either in-season or next -- there is no other team in the sport who can play as fast as this one when they are playing on all cylinders. They are absolutely terrifying if you can't check them and can't get the puck out of your end. I still think Erik Karlsson winds up there, and if he does and they don't gut the NHL roster to do it, then this team is going to be hell to deal with for the next five years or so, with probably a Cup or two in there -- at some point, they're gonna break through
That's it! Yeah, it's long. But it was fun for me to write -- helps me crystallize what I'll be looking for, come next season. It's mid-summer, to boot -- gotta think hockey! |
