John Jaeckel
‏ @jaeckel

Heard just now Hawks working on several trade scenarios. Pacioretty ("top priority"), Skinner, Faulk, also talking to Vegas and Vancouver (players unnamed but LIndberg and Gagner were mentioned to me last week). FWIW, none of the scenarios I heard about included Panarin.


John says, he don't think it involves Panarin.

John Jaeckel
‏ @jaeckel

Heard just now Hawks working on several trade scenarios. Pacioretty ("top priority"), Skinner, Faulk, also talking to Vegas and Vancouver (players unnamed but LIndberg and Gagner were mentioned to me last week). FWIW, none of the scenarios I heard about included Panarin.


John says, he don't think it involves Panarin.
- flipneil

John probably right

John probably right
- Alexzanki

Johnny Jackweed has some infallible sources

I know the Hawks are going to bring Panarin back, be it trade or as a UFA next summer.... IMO, that was Bowman's plan all along... Bowman just didn't "trade" Panarin because he wanted to, but Bowman had to get the salary cap in order last summer and I will bet anything he told Panarin after he traded him that he intended on bringing him back as a UFA once he got his ducks in order..... Well now the Hawks ducks are in order...

I had the same feeling with Saad too - that first Saad trade didn't seem right at all, but Bowman did what he had to do for cap reasons, I understood that and I expected Saad would be back at some point in the near future, and of course it happened. I had the exact same reaction to the Panarin for Saad trade - it was so random that without question I knew that Bowman planned on bringing him back and Panarin knows this (because he was told) - which is why he didn't sign an extension with Columbus and IMO, getting rid of Hossa's contract was pretty much a sign or virtue signal to Panarin that "yup, we're bringing you back buddy"...

The real question is at what cost?

You don't want to give up Schmaltz or Debrincat, but Anisimov, picks & prospects -absolutely...

Even if the Hawks cant get him back via trade (I think Bowman will try hard) he will get him back next summer via UFA...

If the Hawks cant get him via trade their best option IMO is Jeff Skinner or Patches - and you would have to think that Anisimov, 2nd round pick & prospect could get it done for either one of them.... Which is good because they will both be UFA's at the end of the season, leaving the Hawks with $25,000,000 in cap space next summer to get Schmaltz, DeBrincat & Panarin signed....

Cap-wise, the Hawks are in good shape to make all of this happen and not put them in "cap hell"....

But hey, I think this would look pretty nice top 6 as a Hawks fan going into the season:

Saad-Toews-Patches
DeBrincat-Schmaltz-Kane

I mean those are basically 2 top lines there, 1a & 1b... One is a beast of a two-way forward line that can dominate at either end of the ice and the other is an offensive dynamo...

Or of course if the Hawks do bring Panarin back:

Saad-Toews-DeBrincat
Panarin-Schmaltz-Kane

^^ In a different universe it was that... Still, both those lines are deadly.

With either of those top 6's I like the Hawks chances.

Of course defense needs to be addressed..... The Hawks could really use a top 4 like Faulk, however the asking price is just ridiculous - Saad for Faulk or Schmaltz & first round pick for Faulk & Skinner?? lol, yea no....

I think the Hawks may just be better off signing a guy like Dan Hamhuis, then crossing their fingers - not only that but hope that Henri Jokiharju is ready to not only make the team but play top 4 minutes....

But yea, it will be interesting to see how the Hawks D plays out - and goaltending as well..

IMO, if most things work out for the Hawks this summer I.e; acquiring Patches or Panarin, Crawford being ready and Jokiharju being ready for top 4 minutes - this team has potential to be really dangerous....

I know the Hawks are going to bring Panarin back, be it trade or as a UFA next summer.... IMO, that was Bowman's plan all along... Bowman just didn't "trade" Panarin because he wanted to, but Bowman had to get the salary cap in order last summer and I will bet anything he told Panarin after he traded him that he intended on bringing him back as a UFA once he got his ducks in order..... Well now the Hawks ducks are in order...

I had the same feeling with Saad too - that first Saad trade didn't seem right at all, but Bowman did what he had to do for cap reasons, I understood that and I expected Saad would be back at some point in the near future, and of course it happened. I had the exact same reaction to the Panarin for Saad trade - it was so random that without question I knew that Bowman planned on bringing him back and Panarin knows this (because he was told) - which is why he didn't sign an extension with Columbus and IMO, getting rid of Hossa's contract was pretty much a sign or virtue signal to Panarin that "yup, we're bringing you back buddy"...

The real question is at what cost?

You don't want to give up Schmaltz or Debrincat, but Anisimov, picks & prospects -absolutely...

Even if the Hawks cant get him back via trade (I think Bowman will try hard) he will get him back next summer via UFA...

If the Hawks cant get him via trade their best option IMO is Jeff Skinner or Patches - and you would have to think that Anisimov, 2nd round pick & prospect could get it done for either one of them.... Which is good because they will both be UFA's at the end of the season, leaving the Hawks with $25,000,000 in cap space next summer to get Schmaltz, DeBrincat & Panarin signed....

Cap-wise, the Hawks are in good shape to make all of this happen and not put them in "cap hell"....

But hey, I think this would look pretty nice top 6 as a Hawks fan going into the season:

Saad-Toews-Patches
DeBrincat-Schmaltz-Kane

I mean those are basically 2 top lines there, 1a & 1b... One is a beast of a two-way forward line that can dominate at either end of the ice and the other is an offensive dynamo...

Or of course if the Hawks do bring Panarin back:

Saad-Toews-DeBrincat
Panarin-Schmaltz-Kane

^^ In a different universe it was that... Still, both those lines are deadly.

With either of those top 6's I like the Hawks chances.

Of course defense needs to be addressed..... The Hawks could really use a top 4 like Faulk, however the asking price is just ridiculous - Saad for Faulk or Schmaltz & first round pick for Faulk & Skinner?? lol, yea no....

I think the Hawks may just be better off signing a guy like Dan Hamhuis, then crossing their fingers - not only that but hope that Henri Jokiharju is ready to not only make the team but play top 4 minutes....

But yea, it will be interesting to see how the Hawks D plays out - and goaltending as well..

IMO, if most things work out for the Hawks this summer I.e; acquiring Patches or Panarin, Crawford being ready and Jokiharju being ready for top 4 minutes - this team has potential to be really dangerous....
- Savard2Secord

But what do you really think?

Why wouldn't Bowman bring back another ex Blackhawks? That's how he does business, besides giving everyone NMCs.
- howiehandles

Because the cap has forced him to trade players he never wanted to trade.. Just when Bowman had it right - he's in "cap hell"..

Panarin will absolutely be back be it trade this summer, trade at the TDL or as a UFA he will be a Chicago Blackhawk within the next 12 months, lol.

Of course Kruger was another guy Bowman never wanted to trade.

Imagine the Hawks over the last 10 years without a salary cap... It's amazing the Hawks won 3 Cups with basically 3 different teams.... Bowman knows what works..

Those talks better start with Debrincat and/or Schmaltz going back to Columbus.
- DJBAKER0513

That's not going to happen....

Plan B is trade for Patches and then sign Panarin as a UFA.... Panarin is ending up in Chicago regardless be in now or next summer...

Bowman traded Panarin with the intention of bringing him back as a UFA, and Panarin is totally aware of this..

You just don't trade a guy like Panarin out of the blue without a plan to bring him back and him knowing about it..

Hawks have been doing this for years tho - since the 90's..

I suppose then the plan is to win games by scores of 7-5? Because that D is still a tire fire...
- MTounian

TBH, no one knows what that defense will be..

The whole damn team was sloppy last season - but I suppose that happens when you play 20 rookies, half of them on D...

IMO, I expect BOTH Keith and Seabrook to be better and with any luck Henri Jokiharju is ready and can play top 4 minutes..

But hey, the Hawks have plenty of defense, I think Q can find something that works and IMO - it wouldn't hurt to sign a guy like Hamhuis.... He can play 20 minutes a night..

But what do you really think?
- DuranDuran

This.

But what do you really think?
- DuranDuran

Panarin will be a Blackhawk at some point in the next 12 months..

I think Columbus fans are going to be pissed when they realize they basically gave the Hawks Anisimov, Saad and Panarin progressively over the course of 3 seasons for a bag of pucks..

Other teams probably have more assets to offer now. Other teams will have as much or more money to offer next summer.

Here's what would be epicly dumb: Bowman sends Debrincat and the rights to Boqvist and something else to CBJ for Panarin—and then he signs elsewhere next summer.

I don't see it. Then again, I do know they are going HARD after Pacioretty on the recommendation of Kane and hoping to sign him to an extension now. Same logic sort of applies except I think the prices will be higher for Panarin in trade and on his next contract.

Other teams probably have more assets to offer now. Other teams will have as much or more money to offer next summer.

Here's what would be epicly dumb: Bowman sends Debrincat and the rights to Boqvist and something else to CBJ for Panarin—and then he signs elsewhere next summer.

I don't see it. Then again, I do know they are going HARD after Pacioretty on the recommendation of Kane and hoping to sign him to an extension now. Same logic sort of applies except I think the prices will be higher for Panarin in trade and on his next contract.
- John Jaeckel

what if it's a sign and trade, then I guess getting Debrincat or Schamtlz (sorry) makes more sense.

Panarin will be a Blackhawk at some point in the next 12 months..

I think Columbus fans are going to be pissed when they realize they basically gave the Hawks Anisimov, Saad and Panarin progressively over the course of 3 seasons for a bag of pucks..
- Savard2Secord

i think chicago fans are going to lose their minds when we sign and trade him to florida on an 8 yr deal. so you can keep saad and artem anisimov.

Why can't that team just pick a player?

Seriously.

Trade Saad to sign Panarin, trade Panarin for Saad...might as well flip them again and see how nothing changes for your team

Why can't that team just pick a player?

Seriously.

Trade Saad to sign Panarin, trade Panarin for Saad...might as well flip them again and see how nothing changes for your team
- rmull905

That takes all the fun out of it.

what if it's a sign and trade, then I guess getting Debrincat or Schamtlz (sorry) makes more sense.
- Alexzanki

Sign and trade = purple unicorn

A bunch of Hawks fans on twitter talking about how they’d love to get Panarin back isn’t a “hot Rumor”.

Can’t believe people get charged $20 for this when twitter is free. And you’ll know that by using twitter, you’ll essentially have the same sources as Eklund.

A bunch of Hawks fans on twitter talking about how they’d love to get Panarin back isn’t a “hot Rumor”.

Can’t believe people get charged $20 for this when twitter is free. And you’ll know that by using twitter, you’ll essentially have the same sources as Eklund.

Other teams probably have more assets to offer now. Other teams will have as much or more money to offer next summer.

Here's what would be epicly dumb: Bowman sends Debrincat and the rights to Boqvist and something else to CBJ for Panarin—and then he signs elsewhere next summer.

I don't see it. Then again, I do know they are going HARD after Pacioretty on the recommendation of Kane and hoping to sign him to an extension now. Same logic sort of applies except I think the prices will be higher for Panarin in trade and on his next contract.
- John Jaeckel

THIS....makes me throw up in my mouth. If they ink Patches to some idiotic 7 x 6 million or 7 x 7 million deal I will have to highly consider becoming a Blues or Canucks fan..."GAG"....nah..... will just stop watching hockey all together....DON"T DO IT STAN!!!!

this will blow kicksave's mind. here's my (travis yost's) 2 cents.

Entering the 2018-19 NHL season, the three goaltenders carrying the largest cap hits are Price, Lundqvist and Bobrovsky.

All three are in unique spots. Price ($10.5 million cap hit) is a 30-year-old goaltender coming off of his worst professional season. Behind a leaky Montreal team, Price managed just a 90.0 save percentage in 2017-18. That ranked him 47th league-wide, trailing names like Ottawa’s Condom and Vancouver’s Nilsson.

Lundqvist ($8.5 million cap hit) stopped 91.5 per cent of shots – right around league average, and indiscernible from the likes of teammates Georgiev and Pavelec over their 29 combined appearances in 2017-18.

Bobrovsky ($7.4 million cap hit), meanwhile, put together another fantastic season for Columbus. His 92.1 per cent stop rate was one of the highest in the league and earned him some distant Vezina Trophy consideration.

Three highly paid goalies, three incredibly different situations. It’s what makes the goaltending position so materially different from any other skating group. There’s no doubt these are three of the more talented netminders in the league but if you looked strictly at their performance last year, you’d raise an eyebrow or two.

The goaltending pay issue has beleaguered NHL front offices for years. Decision makers who pay for performance for forwards and defencemen don’t see the same degree of volatility, perhaps in large part because the statistical measures we have available for those players are more reliable and indicative of a player’s talent.

For goaltenders, it’s quite a different story. There is almost no correlation between a player’s cap hit and the rate at which he stops shots.

Embedded Image of a (frank)ing stupid line graph.

The relationship between the two is non-existent. For every fantastic season from a highly paid goalie, you have a poor season from another highly paid goalie. The same is true for the cheaper goaltenders. Another way of saying this: If you knew a player’s cap hit (or pay), you would know very little about his ability to stop shots. (Imagine substituting that with forwards and goal-scoring!)

This seems paradoxical. How can a position so critically important to the game be so unpredictable? How can so much money be spent on a position where we have such little statistical understanding?

One plausible theory is that the measurement fails because save percentage is more a team measure than an individual one. For example, consider Scott Darling – noted on the (frank)ing stupid line graph above. He played 75 fantastic games over three seasons with the Chicago Blackhawks and signed a lucrative deal with Carolina to take over as the de facto number one for the 2017-18 season. Darling’s performance was abysmal. His 88.8 stop rate was one of the lowest in the league. But goaltending in Carolina has been challenging for years. Is it possible that poor defensive play is adversely impacting the play of a slew of goaltenders, including – but certainly not limited to – Darling?

It’s as reasonable a question as any. But newer measures of goaltending performance should be able to provide an answer. What we are ultimately trying to solve with Darling, and any goalie for that matter, is whether or not they are positively contributing to team performance. To that end, we must consider their ability to stop shots, but we must also take into consideration the quality of the shots they face. Elite defensive teams will more frequently unburden their goaltenders by keeping shots to the perimeter, while poor defensive teams will all but open a formal invitation to their crease.

Let’s look at Delta Save Percentage (via Corsica). Delta Save Percentage measures the difference between a goalie’s actual save percentage on the year and the save percentage we would have expected that goaltender to realize based on the volume and quality of those shots. The idea is that more talented puck-stoppers will generate positive numbers here because, regardless of the difficulty of those shots, they are simply more likely to stop them.

Does the relationship change?

Embedded Image of another (frank)ing stupid line graph. jeez.

Again, there’s no relationship. When considering shot volume and shot quality, we don’t see any evidence that highly paid players are any more or less likely to stop proportionally more shots than their lower-paid compatriots. Though, I am a bit fascinated by 2017-18 Ryan Miller. He didn’t pop on anyone’s radar because of the limited games played (28 in total), but he stopped 92.8 per cent of shots in a sample where we could have most reasonably expected him to stop 90.2 per cent. That’s the highest delta observed in the last four seasons.

Now, maybe a great hockey scout or exceptional front office has figured something out that most other teams haven’t. Maybe there’s something on a player’s tape – or something in another statistical measure – that can better tease out the value a goaltender brings to the table. I’m not sure we can rule that out.

What we can rule out, though, is this notion that the league at aggregate has figured out how to pay goaltenders. The above graphs would suggest that it’s a pointless endeavour to negotiate an NHL goalie’s second or third contract, since the possibility of him being outplayed by a younger, cheaper goaltender on his first contract or a “bridge” deal is high.

The league probably does a strong job of weeding out the goalies who don’t belong. We rarely see guys with truly terrible and persistent save percentages stick around for a long time, and that makes sense. But discerning the league’s fifth best goalie from the league’s 19th best goalie? That seems like an impossible task with what we have available.

Which raises the question: Why are teams paying premiums for guesswork?

End of uninteresting long winded blog. What are you doing tsn?

I think the Hawks try and trade a contract (AA $4M) for a similar contract with less years (ie Patches $4M/1 year). That will clear an extra $4M in cap space for next year for next offseason, when Panarin can be had without costing big picks/prospects. They should use the cap space they have now to sign 1 year deals so they have the full cap space to work with next offseason. Not saying its AA for Patches, but cap/years is what I'm looking at.

Ek, your rumors are getting worse everyday, if Panarin gets dealt back to the Hawks i will delete my account............

Toews for Panarin.

this will blow kicksave's mind. here's my (travis yost's) 2 cents.

Entering the 2018-19 NHL season, the three goaltenders carrying the largest cap hits are Price, Lundqvist and Bobrovsky.

All three are in unique spots. Price ($10.5 million cap hit) is a 30-year-old goaltender coming off of his worst professional season. Behind a leaky Montreal team, Price managed just a 90.0 save percentage in 2017-18. That ranked him 47th league-wide, trailing names like Ottawa’s Condom and Vancouver’s Nilsson.

Lundqvist ($8.5 million cap hit) stopped 91.5 per cent of shots – right around league average, and indiscernible from the likes of teammates Georgiev and Pavelec over their 29 combined appearances in 2017-18.

Bobrovsky ($7.4 million cap hit), meanwhile, put together another fantastic season for Columbus. His 92.1 per cent stop rate was one of the highest in the league and earned him some distant Vezina Trophy consideration.

Three highly paid goalies, three incredibly different situations. It’s what makes the goaltending position so materially different from any other skating group. There’s no doubt these are three of the more talented netminders in the league but if you looked strictly at their performance last year, you’d raise an eyebrow or two.

The goaltending pay issue has beleaguered NHL front offices for years. Decision makers who pay for performance for forwards and defencemen don’t see the same degree of volatility, perhaps in large part because the statistical measures we have available for those players are more reliable and indicative of a player’s talent.

For goaltenders, it’s quite a different story. There is almost no correlation between a player’s cap hit and the rate at which he stops shots.

Embedded Image of a (frank)ing stupid line graph.

The relationship between the two is non-existent. For every fantastic season from a highly paid goalie, you have a poor season from another highly paid goalie. The same is true for the cheaper goaltenders. Another way of saying this: If you knew a player’s cap hit (or pay), you would know very little about his ability to stop shots. (Imagine substituting that with forwards and goal-scoring!)

This seems paradoxical. How can a position so critically important to the game be so unpredictable? How can so much money be spent on a position where we have such little statistical understanding?

One plausible theory is that the measurement fails because save percentage is more a team measure than an individual one. For example, consider Scott Darling – noted on the (frank)ing stupid line graph above. He played 75 fantastic games over three seasons with the Chicago Blackhawks and signed a lucrative deal with Carolina to take over as the de facto number one for the 2017-18 season. Darling’s performance was abysmal. His 88.8 stop rate was one of the lowest in the league. But goaltending in Carolina has been challenging for years. Is it possible that poor defensive play is adversely impacting the play of a slew of goaltenders, including – but certainly not limited to – Darling?

It’s as reasonable a question as any. But newer measures of goaltending performance should be able to provide an answer. What we are ultimately trying to solve with Darling, and any goalie for that matter, is whether or not they are positively contributing to team performance. To that end, we must consider their ability to stop shots, but we must also take into consideration the quality of the shots they face. Elite defensive teams will more frequently unburden their goaltenders by keeping shots to the perimeter, while poor defensive teams will all but open a formal invitation to their crease.

Let’s look at Delta Save Percentage (via Corsica). Delta Save Percentage measures the difference between a goalie’s actual save percentage on the year and the save percentage we would have expected that goaltender to realize based on the volume and quality of those shots. The idea is that more talented puck-stoppers will generate positive numbers here because, regardless of the difficulty of those shots, they are simply more likely to stop them.

Does the relationship change?

Embedded Image of another (frank)ing stupid line graph. jeez.

Again, there’s no relationship. When considering shot volume and shot quality, we don’t see any evidence that highly paid players are any more or less likely to stop proportionally more shots than their lower-paid compatriots. Though, I am a bit fascinated by 2017-18 Ryan Miller. He didn’t pop on anyone’s radar because of the limited games played (28 in total), but he stopped 92.8 per cent of shots in a sample where we could have most reasonably expected him to stop 90.2 per cent. That’s the highest delta observed in the last four seasons.

Now, maybe a great hockey scout or exceptional front office has figured something out that most other teams haven’t. Maybe there’s something on a player’s tape – or something in another statistical measure – that can better tease out the value a goaltender brings to the table. I’m not sure we can rule that out.

What we can rule out, though, is this notion that the league at aggregate has figured out how to pay goaltenders. The above graphs would suggest that it’s a pointless endeavour to negotiate an NHL goalie’s second or third contract, since the possibility of him being outplayed by a younger, cheaper goaltender on his first contract or a “bridge” deal is high.

The league probably does a strong job of weeding out the goalies who don’t belong. We rarely see guys with truly terrible and persistent save percentages stick around for a long time, and that makes sense. But discerning the league’s fifth best goalie from the league’s 19th best goalie? That seems like an impossible task with what we have available.

Which raises the question: Why are teams paying premiums for guesswork?

End of uninteresting long winded blog. What are you doing tsn?
- The Deal Man

Holy (frank)ing chocolate drops Batman. Wtf is that? Did you get your English professor mixed up with your rumour professor?

(frank)!

If you think you can DISCERN how good a goalie is off of one year of save percentage then you, my friend, are dumb.