Frose lol is he still a hab?
- senstroll

Penciled in as our 4th line centre.

Unless Peca outplays him at camp?



Edit: Thanks for explaining.

Penciled in as our 4th line centre.

Unless Peca outplays him at camp?



Edit: Thanks for explaining.
- Scabeh

I hear that Vermette is still available, you guys should snap him up before the Leafs do.

I hear that Vermette is still available, you guys should snap him up before the Leafs so.
- TrashPanda

I pray to god Bergevin doesn't read this.

gar is anti-tanner.

he prefers to use multiple arbitrary stats out of context that happen to fit the argument of the day.
- Tumbleweed

MASOOC?

Goals above replacement?

Where is that replacement? How do you score over it?
- Scabeh

I was looking at some formulas for this because I thought I'd do some analysis on my own. Isolating that last sentence, the word "thought" was probably where it all went wrong for me.

It's complicated, but in a nutshell, they take a variation of the league minimum salary (a bit over to provide depth of sample size), and then calculate baseline performance metrics for Offensive output (ie, Shots Created), Defensive performance (Shots Against / Shots Prevented), Penalty Offset (ie, Drawn vs Taken), Faceoff acumen, Powerplay benefits, and so on. The idea is to come up with a numerical value that represents how much better a player is than a replacement player.

In current considerations 6 GAR = 1 Win. The measurement today very much favours centres, and focuses far more on offense. But to put it in perspective, someone like Hedman had a GAR of 12.57 last year; Gardiner and Rielly both had 9.7. Petry was an 11.68, which was probably one of the nice bright lights on last year's Habs team.

Penciled in as our 4th line centre.

Unless Peca outplays him at camp?



Edit: Thanks for explaining.
- Scabeh

congrats on drafting Jack Hughes

Goals above replacement?

Where is that replacement? How do you score over it?
- Scabeh

the replacement is Weber's wheelchair, and how quickly it can be replaced

congrats on drafting Jack Hughes
- senstroll

Id like the Leafs to trade for Spurgeon (while keeping Gardiner)
Would give them a big bump in their top 4...
- senstroll

I've been saying Spurgeon for months now! Glad you agree.

I think they can do it but 1 of Sandin or Rasanen might have to go in the package. I'd also trade Brown in that deal.

I was looking at some formulas for this because I thought I'd do some analysis on my own. Isolating that last sentence, the word "thought" was probably where it all went wrong for me.

It's complicated, but in a nutshell, they take a variation of the league minimum salary (a bit over to provide depth of sample size), and then calculate baseline performance metrics for Offensive output (ie, Shots Created), Defensive performance (Shots Against / Shots Prevented), Penalty Offset (ie, Drawn vs Taken), Faceoff acumen, Powerplay benefits, and so on. The idea is to come up with a numerical value that represents how much better a player is than a replacement player.

In current considerations 6 GAR = 1 Win. The measurement today very much favours centres, and focuses far more on offense. But to put it in perspective, someone like Hedman had a GAR of 12.57 last year; Gardiner and Rielly both had 9.7. Petry was an 11.68, which was probably one of the nice bright lights on last year's Habs team.
- Monkeypunk

Doesn't pass the smell test. This metric must be flawed.

I hear that Vermette is still available, you guys should snap him up before the Leafs do.
- TrashPanda

Pipe down you!!

We need Vermette, he's better than Tavares.. Vermette vaults us back into contender status..

I've been saying Spurgeon for months now! Glad you agree.

I think they can do it but 1 of Sandin or Rasanen might have to go in the package. I'd also trade Brown in that deal.
- Aaron_85

I saw him mentioned as one of the potential players available from Minny..but havent heard a thing since then.. so no idea how accurate that was.

I was looking at some formulas for this because I thought I'd do some analysis on my own. Isolating that last sentence, the word "thought" was probably where it all went wrong for me.

It's complicated, but in a nutshell, they take a variation of the league minimum salary (a bit over to provide depth of sample size), and then calculate baseline performance metrics for Offensive output (ie, Shots Created), Defensive performance (Shots Against / Shots Prevented), Penalty Offset (ie, Drawn vs Taken), Faceoff acumen, Powerplay benefits, and so on. The idea is to come up with a numerical value that represents how much better a player is than a replacement player.

In current considerations 6 GAR = 1 Win. The measurement today very much favours centres, and focuses far more on offense. But to put it in perspective, someone like Hedman had a GAR of 12.57 last year; Gardiner and Rielly both had 9.7. Petry was an 11.68, which was probably one of the nice bright lights on last year's Habs team.
- Monkeypunk

I see.

But if a Stat has Petry as one of the leagues best defensemen last season, something must be wrong with the stat as a measuring stick?

He had a good season all things considered..... was awesome at times and terrible at others.... Overall good season but still....

I've been saying Spurgeon for months now! Glad you agree.

I think they can do it but 1 of Sandin or Rasanen might have to go in the package. I'd also trade Brown in that deal.
- Aaron_85

5'9", 174.

Hard pass.

I saw him mentioned as one of the potential players available from Minny..but havent heard a thing since then.. so no idea how accurate that was.
- senstroll

I heard the same thing but it seems like it was all talk coming out of Minny considering they haven't done much. They must believe they are still in the thick of contention.

5'9", 174.

Hard pass.
- Unholy_Goalie

please go to the Bruins / Tampa Bay thread with your negativity

Doesn't pass the smell test. This metric must be flawed.
- Unholy_Goalie

I've said before that any of these metrics (Corsi, Fenwick, GAR, etc.) are incapable of dealing with a Jake Gardiner.

I understand that you loathe him, but he brings an offensive dynamic to the team. He makes more good passes than bad passes, and creates offense. Unfortunately, he creates offense for both teams. It just slants more in his own team's favour.

The bottom line with Gardiner is that its easy to be mad at him because his gaffes are so ridiculously egregious. He makes mistakes that 10 year old kids know better than to make.

But in the end, he is still a greater benefit than a detriment.

I've said before that any of these metrics (Corsi, Fenwick, GAR, etc.) are incapable of dealing with a Jake Gardiner.

I understand that you loathe him, but he brings an offensive dynamic to the team. He makes more good passes than bad passes, and creates offense. Unfortunately, he creates offense for both teams. It just slants more in his own team's favour.

The bottom line with Gardiner is that its easy to be mad at him because his gaffes are so ridiculously egregious. He makes mistakes that 10 year old kids know better than to make.

But in the end, he is still a greater benefit than a detriment.
- Monkeypunk

You have me confused with someone else because I don't loathe Gardiner. I understand he's a good passer (probably #1 in the NHL in completed stretch passes) and he's a good skater. His offensive qualities usually outweigh his defensive flaws. I was the first to defend him when people were poopting on him for game 7. The reality is, he's a #3 defenseman who was forced to play #1 minutes for a lack of a better option. The player isn't bad, his utilization is bad.

Penciled in as our 4th line centre.

Unless Peca outplays him at camp?



Edit: Thanks for explaining.
- Scabeh

Frenchies can call him Byron Fraise

I pray to god Bergevin doesn't read this.
- Scabeh

I'll make sure to post it on a telephone pole outside the Belle Centre.

I see.

But if a Stat has Petry as one of the leagues best defensemen last season, something must be wrong with the stat as a measuring stick?

He had a good season all things considered..... was awesome at times and terrible at others.... Overall good season but still....
- Scabeh

I didn't watch the Habs much last year - I really don't remember much about Petry - except that I did like him with Edmonton a few years ago. But if Petry is a rushing defenseman who makes good outlet passes, and drives the play, then the metric would favour him for that. If he is the #1 D on the PP, the metric would also favour that.

His GAR numbers do seem to be largely driven by his offensive and PP contributions.

Meanwhile England is ranked 5th in the World Football Elo ratings.

I guess unless you're in the top 3 or 4 teams though you're relegated to beer league status, amirite?
- mjones242

wtf are 'Elo ratings'???

https://fifa.com/fifa-wor...king-table/men/index.html

England lost vs Belgium.
won games vs team ranked #21 (Tunesia) and #55 (Panama - a team below Burkina Faso, Jamaica and Montenegro )

Then had to play vs #16 Colombia and #24 Sweden.

The road to the semi-finals couldn't have been easier.
If England would have been in another group (for example the Morocco/Spain/Portugal group) and wouldn't have been in 8th finals to start with.

now they have to play a 'difficult' Croatie team (ranked #20).

England vs Brasil / Argentina / Spain / Portugal / Argentina / France / Belgium / Uruguay stands 0 chance.

Let's hope they get what they deserve, and go home tonight after a nice loss.

please go to the Bruins / Tampa Bay thread with your negativity
- plantheparade

Yeah, not wanting to trade a bunch of young prospects and picks for a glorified and sober version of Ian White is negative. Sure.

Spurgeron is (frank)ing tiny for an NHL defenseman. If the Leafs signed him like Minnesota did (zero cost), sure, give him a chance. But he's never played a full season due to injuries. He has a long list of injuries. Part of that is because he's seriously undersized. He's not a 40+ point defenseman either. He's also 28 going on 29.

If the Leafs are going to get a RHD, they should be aiming for a guy with more potential. Some size too would be nice. Outside of someone like Pietrangelo, the younger, the better too.

I see.

But if a Stat has Petry as one of the leagues best defensemen last season, something must be wrong with the stat as a measuring stick?

He had a good season all things considered..... was awesome at times and terrible at others.... Overall good season but still....
- Scabeh

the thing is, just because a stat doesnt align with my perception..I dont assume there is something wrong with the stat automatically.

these types of models are just trying to present a players overall impact over a season. And probably include a ton of stuff our eyes and memory dont see or value.

i just looked having not payed any attention to him at all.. and he really had 12 goals and 42 points? I had no clue

the thing is, just because a stat doesnt align with my perception..I dont assume there is something wrong with the stat automatically.

these types of models are just trying to present a players overall impact over a season. And probably include a ton of stuff our eyes and memory dont see or value.

i just looked having not payed any attention to him at all.. and he really had 12 goals and 42 points? I had no clue
- senstroll

weber went down early, Petry got 1st PP time and tons of ice time

Now look at his +/-