Id like the Leafs to trade for Spurgeon (while keeping Gardiner)
Would give them a big bump in their top 4




- senstroll

Tell me when I'm looking at here.

Tell me when I'm looking at here.
- Scabeh

habs suck

tb would be better than the 2011 bruins with karlsson

habs suck

tb would be better than the 2011 bruins with karlsson
- Tumbleweed

The 2011 Bruins don't actually exist.

I think you are probably correct that the Leafs aren't quite deserving of being labelled contenders. There, happy?
- Thecakeisalie

End of story.

What I cared about was your argument that they needed to somehow prove they were contenders before they could be labelled as such. My argument is that if the right moves are made, it would make perfect sense to label a team as a contender without them actually having to prove it.

Even in that case, the Leafs did nothing to fix their defense and their defense was exposed as weak in the playoffs when they gave up an average of 4 goals a game. They signed Tavares to replace the goals of JVR/Bozak, not add to them. The Leafs haven't proven they can go far in the playoffs. They're still a team of potential.

If a team has a stacked offense and a poopty defense, then somehow magically managed to improve their defense by a mile (without giving up other important roster pieces), then you could theoretically label them a contender, without needing to wait for the season to start and have them prove it.

Leafs didn't do that though.

Do you get it? I merely have a problem with your logical argument about proving it. That's it. Nothing really specific about the Leafs at all. Just your logical argument is flawed, and it bugged me enough I spoke up on it. I'm sorry I wasted so much time just trying to explain to you what I'm even arguing with you about.

That's nice but the Leafs still didn't match your definition of speculating on being improved. They signed a very strong player to replace the production of two other players they lost. They didn't add Tavares to JVR, they lost JVR and added Tavares.

Every year there are at least 2 or 3 teams in each conference with a good chance to win. Your qualifiers for a contender are so stringent you'd label only 1 or 2 teams in the whole league as contenders. If you tried to predict who'd win the cup and got two choices, I'd bet you'd be wrong 4 out of 6 tries.

Exactly the point, there's a handful of contenders and a bunch of pretenders. Being a contender is an exclusive group of teams, otherwise you may as well say all 31 teams are contenders and throw the word right out the window.

Did you ever consider that maybe it’s something you’re doing to generate this kind of reaction?
- Feeling Glucky?

Yeah, disagree with people and pop the blue and white bubble. Classic example below.

Also, the “this many points/goals out” argument is moronic. Adding an elite 2-way Center is going to make matchups that much harder, which will increase scoring accross the roster, not to mention you’re discounting the defensive upgrade, and ignoring that it opens up two more spots. Even if you’re just doing the basic addition and subtraction, without considering the other benefits having a player of this caliber brings... his average goal production going all the way back to his rookie season is 33. That means that the two new full time players(Kap and Johnsson) that come in have to combine for 17 more goals to make up the difference. Either of them could eclipse that number given a bigger role this year.


You make arguments in bad faith all the time, this is just another example. That’s why you get the reaction you do.
- Feeling Glucky?

Didn't say anything to you and you're calling it moronic in a weak attempt to insult.

And, as many others, you're missing the point. It's not an argument in bad faith, it's the simple fact that anything considered negative towards the Leafs is instantly considered ban worthy. People are so feverishly against it, they don't even bother to read the user name, they just see a copy cat avatar and go off.

The Leafs lost players who produced goals. Tavares replaces them but by how much isn't exactly clear. It's pretty simple.

Hoping? Really?


How is it that Tampa with 3mil in cap space were going to add 11mil but we're not going to lose anything off their roster?
- burn

Clearing the players that are less effective and eat up salary like Killhorn, Johnson and Calahan.

Vegas has the Leafs as a contender.

Who knows more, UG, or the sportsbooks in Vegas?
- Aetherial

Vegas odds say otherwise.
- gravyface

2018-19 STANLEY CUP ODDS

Team Odds
Toronto Maple Leafs +700
Tampa Bay Lightning +900
Boston Bruins +950
Nashville Predators +1100
Vegas Golden Knights +1100
Washington Capitals +1200
Pittsburgh Penguins +1200
Winnipeg Jets +1400
San Jose Sharks +2200
Edmonton Oilers +2500
Philadelphia Flyers +2500
Los Angeles Kings +2500
St. Louis Blues +2500
Minnesota Wild +2600
Anaheim Ducks +2800
- justmike

Means (frank) all. They did the same in years prior because Vegas knows how many idiots there are out there who place bets with their hearts and not their brains. They move the line to balance the action and cover their ass in case they'd lose the bet.

If 100 million people irrationally decided to bet the Ottawa Senators were going to win the Cup, Vegas would be forced to move the line and make Ottawa the favorite to win the Cup, regardless of their actual odds of winning it.

Ah (frank), here we go again.

Short bus dropped Uggy off at home early!

The Jets had one long playoff run... Talk about consistency
- PatC80

Longer run than the Leafs. In the Western Conference. Beat some really good teams too. And their team is balanced. Very good defense, very good offense, one of the best goalies in the league. They proved they can be a legit contender. Leafs still getting bounced in the 1st round, blowing 3rd period leads in game 7. One team earned it, the other didn't. Yet.

Means (frank) all. They did the same in years prior because Vegas knows how many idiots there are out there who place bets with their hearts and not their brains. They move the line to balance the action and cover their ass in case they'd lose the bet.

If 100 million people irrationally decided to bet the Ottawa Senators were going to win the Cup, Vegas would be forced to move the line and make Ottawa the favorite to win the Cup, regardless of their actual odds of winning it.
- Unholy_Goalie

You actually do just love arguing hey? Anything anyone says on here is challenged immediately by you, nobody’s safe.

Id like the Leafs to trade for Spurgeon (while keeping Gardiner)
Would give them a big bump in their top 4




- senstroll

Funny, I've been looking at Tierney's work, as well, of late. Petry stood out as a RHD, but I don't like his price tag. Spurgeon's not much better, really.

If you look at the Leaf's D, though - Dermott with a full season rounds into a nice 7-8 GAR, guy, which is pretty nice. If Zaitsev returns to 2016-17 form, he's a 7-8 GAR guy as well.

It would mean they don't need to do anything to get a top-4 of D-Men all between 7-10. None of them reach that elite 12+ status, but it's a very formidable group.

TL;DR


Taxes, blah, blah, blah, 2011 Bruins, blah, blah, blah, vegas, blah, blah, odds, blah, blah, noncontender, blah, blah, defense still sucks, blah, blah, Freddie not elite, blah, blah, [insert Uggieism here]

Signing Hamhuis seems like a wise move as well.
- Feeling Glucky?

meh. on the left side they have Rielly/Gardiner/Dermott.
Really need a top 4 RHD to make an impact.

At the moment this is how I would rank the Leafs RHD

Carrick
Zeitsev
Hainsey

Getting someone who can bump all 3 down and 1 out.
Really thats pretty weak overall RHD. NZ had one terrible year, I saw a comparision from his year 1 vs year 2 and it was like 2 different players. very strange.

hopefully it was just an off year or injury issue..otherwise he wont help much

Funny, I've been looking at Tierney's work, as well, of late. Petry stood out as a RHD, but I don't like his price tag. Spurgeon's not much better, really.

If you look at the Leaf's D, though - Dermott with a full season rounds into a nice 7-8 GAR, guy, which is pretty nice. If Zaitsev returns to 2016-17 form, he's a 7-8 GAR guy as well.

It would mean they don't need to do anything to get a top-4 of D-Men all between 7-10. None of them reach that elite 12+ status, but it's a very formidable group.
- Monkeypunk

that's it. right now, we're banking on improvement organically through one guy developing and one guy rebounding.

i'd put rielly as another guy that is still getting better. i don't think he's topped out just yet.

The purpose of Vegas odds are to get people betting, not to predict actual outcomes.
- TheMussel

Tell me when I'm looking at here.
- Scabeh

thats his GAR (goals above replacement) model ranking each teams top 4 D.
I assume by TOI? since Dermott probably bumps the Leafs up a bit.

GAR models are still very much a wip..

meh. on the left side they have Rielly/Gardiner/Dermott.
Really need a top 4 RHD to make an impact.

At the moment this is how I would rank the Leafs RHD

Carrick
Zeitsev
Hainsey

Getting someone who can bump all 3 down and 1 out.
Really thats pretty weak overall RHD. NZ had one terrible year, I saw a comparision from his year 1 vs year 2 and it was like 2 different players. very strange.

hopefully it was just an off year or injury issue..otherwise he wont help much
- senstroll

i am wondering/hoping that it was an injury issue that he's over. looks like he lost weight and was pushed around rather easily.

otherwise, we're hooped by that contract.

You actually do just love arguing hey? Anything anyone says on here is challenged immediately by you, nobody’s safe.
- ClarksonDavid

No more or less than the majority of people here. I was replying to things people said towards me.

thats his GAR (goals above replacement) model ranking each teams top 4 D.
I assume by TOI? since Dermott probably bumps the Leafs up a bit.

GAR models are still very much a wip..
- senstroll

Goals above replacement?

Where is that replacement? How do you score over it?

i am wondering/hoping if it was an injury issue that he's over. looks like he lost weight out and was pushed around rather easily.

otherwise, we're hooped by that contract.
- Tumbleweed

I’m hopeful Dubas could find a sucker to take that contract.. might have to make it worth their while I guess

that's it. right now, we're banking on improvement organically through one guy developing and one guy rebounding.

i'd put rielly as another guy that is still getting better. i don't think he's topped out just yet.
- Tumbleweed

And that fair, but risky if a lot doesnt go their way.

Dubas could be waiting it out, see how the season plays out.

meh. on the left side they have Rielly/Gardiner/Dermott.
Really need a top 4 RHD to make an impact.

At the moment this is how I would rank the Leafs RHD

Carrick
Zeitsev
Hainsey

Getting someone who can bump all 3 down and 1 out.
Really thats pretty weak overall RHD. NZ had one terrible year, I saw a comparision from his year 1 vs year 2 and it was like 2 different players. very strange.

hopefully it was just an off year or injury issue..otherwise he wont help much
- senstroll

He missed a quarter of the year with a LBI. I can't remember if it was leg, ankle, knee - it probably doesn't matter. I think you're right though - if it's in that area, and it affects his mobility, it is hopefully something he's recovered from.

BTW

2016/17

GAR 6.7
Offensive GAR 3.1
Defensive GAR 1.5
PP GAR 0.8
Penalty Offset 1.3

2017/18

GAR 0.76
Offensive GAR 0.484
Defensive GAR -0.178
PP GAR 0.05
Penalty Offset 0.411

He went from a 3/4 guy, to someone that could have been replaced by just about anyone.

that's it. right now, we're banking on improvement organically through one guy developing and one guy rebounding.

i'd put rielly as another guy that is still getting better. i don't think he's topped out just yet.
- Tumbleweed

They're banking on several question marks.

Can Dermott play a full season at the pace he played at or will he take a step backwards? (See Gardiner / Zaitsev in year 1 vs year 2.)

Will they move Gardiner or overpay him to stay?

Will Zaitsev be like his rookie season or are the Leafs (frank)ed with a garbage contract?

Will Ozy be a good addition or another shot in the dark at a Russian RHD?

Is Rielly going to reach yet another level or will he plateau?

Is Hainsey finally too old to play as much as he does, especially on the PK?

Is the lack of RHD going to screw up Babcocks system?

James Tanner would feel right at home right about now.

Goals above replacement?

Where is that replacement? How do you score over it?
- Scabeh

In concept, GAR is a one size fits all number that encapsulates how valuable an individual player is in terms of on-ice play, relative to a ‘replacement level’ player. A replacement level player is a player of a caliber such that they are readily available and can be acquired and played at a moment’s notice. Think along the lines of the players who shuttle waivers every year, or are your emergency callups from the AHL. A replacement level player is one of those. An example would be a player like Byron Froese - a good player in the AHL who becomes very limited at the NHL level.

Frose lol is he still a hab?

James Tanner would feel right at home right about now.
- Scabeh

gar is anti-tanner.

he prefers to use multiple arbitrary stats out of context that happen to fit the argument of the day.