Vegas has the Leafs as a contender.

Who knows more, UG, or the sportsbooks in Vegas?
- Aetherial

I think they both know sweet (frank)all

Vegas odds say otherwise.
- gravyface

The purpose of Vegas odds are to get people betting, not to predict actual outcomes.

The purpose of Vegas odds are to get people betting, not to predict actual outcomes.
- TheMussel

#Brainiac

I have a question for anyone who follows Ottawa a little more closely. Sports talk radio is trying to drum up interest in a potential Cody Ceci trade to the Leafs.

Other than him being a right shot, I don't see a fit there. Never been impressed much with his game. Am I wrong? Is he better than I've seen?

Anyone have any pro's and con's to his game and if the Leafs would be a fit?

Seems like nonsense really, but...I'm curious.

The purpose of Vegas odds are to get people betting, not to predict actual outcomes.
- TheMussel

however, they obviously have to pay out on one of those 31 odds..

The TOilers look pretty out of place up that high, but I guess they do have McDavid.
- Archaic

Yeah I don't like that bet. The Leafs also get pushed up a bit because the line is affected by how much money will be bet and with the Leafs' fanbase that would be a lot. Books move the line to hedge against huge losses if a popular pick wins. Nevertheless the Leafs are clearly a top contender.

You bet $100 to win the amount on that list!
- .OHOH.

so the other way of noting it would be that the Leafs are 7:1 odds?

I think they both know sweet (frank)all
- Scabeh

I mean, vegas has this whole math thing pretty figured out... or they wouldn't be doing too well.

so the other way of noting it would be that the Leafs are 7:1 odds?
- Feeling Glucky?

however, they obviously have to pay out on one of those 31 odds..
- plantheparade

They absolutely do. I'm no sports book I wouldn't be surprised if the logic went something like this:

1. The Leafs sign Tavares
2. The Leafs immediately get a lot better, and were the 6th place team last year without him
3. The biggest fanbase in Hockey will no doubt have a ton of people placing bets that the Leafs will win the cup
4. If they place bets at the odds I set, say, 12:1, and they win the cup (which they have a good chance of doing according to my analysts), then I'd have to pay out 12:1 odds for millions of rabid Leafs fans. (high expected value, less profit)
5. If I increase the odds, to say 7:1, then I end up paying all those people less money. (lower expected value, more profit)

I have a question for anyone who follows Ottawa a little more closely. Sports talk radio is trying to drum up interest in a potential Cody Ceci trade to the Leafs.

Other than him being a right shot, I don't see a fit there. Never been impressed much with his game. Am I wrong? Is he better than I've seen?

Anyone have any pro's and con's to his game and if the Leafs would be a fit?

Seems like nonsense really, but...I'm curious.
- Mrbs71

I heard it on TSN 1050 this morning as well.. Ceci is still only 24, has good sized is a RHD and put up some decent numbers in the OHL. Would be a decent pick up here and could slot in to the 3rd pairing and move up to the 2nd pairing if Zaitsev's struggles continue.

The only knock on Ceci is that he plays for the Senators

They absolutely do. I'm no sports book I wouldn't be surprised if the logic went something like this:

1. The Leafs sign Tavares
2. The Leafs immediately get a lot better, and were the 6th place team last year without him
3. The biggest fanbase in Hockey will no doubt have a ton of people placing bets that the Leafs will win the cup
4. If they place bets at the odds I set, say, 12:1, and they win the cup (which they have a good chance of doing according to my analysts), then I'd have to pay out 12:1 odds for millions of rabid Leafs fans.
5. If I increase the odds, to say 7:1, then I end up paying all those people less money.
- TheMussel

Bang on.

Vegas odds are influenced by how much people "want to" or actually bet on something.

It's not exactly the mathematical odds of winning for a team.

I have a question for anyone who follows Ottawa a little more closely. Sports talk radio is trying to drum up interest in a potential Cody Ceci trade to the Leafs.

Other than him being a right shot, I don't see a fit there. Never been impressed much with his game. Am I wrong? Is he better than I've seen?

Anyone have any pro's and con's to his game and if the Leafs would be a fit?

Seems like nonsense really, but...I'm curious.
- Mrbs71

I would stay far far away. I would be very surprised if the Leafs had any interest.

Bang on.

Vegas odds are influenced by how much people "want to" or actually bet on something.

It's not exactly the mathematical odds of winning for a team.
- Scabeh

So, in other words... No one, including Vegas, expects the Habs to win the Cup?

Bang on.

Vegas odds are influenced by how much people "want to" or actually bet on something.

It's not exactly the mathematical odds of winning for a team.
- Scabeh

As heavy money moves one way or the other the odds adjust accordingly. Pay out less to the people that are betting the heavy favorite and more to those that are taking the underdog - helps lean it toward the house. Totally simplified, but just a generic explanation. That's why odds shift within days of a fight or final and usually the heavy money comes on the favorite on the last day (so the odds don't change leading up to).

So, in other words... No one, including Vegas, expects the Habs to win the Cup?
- PatC80

Well the team is doing it's best!

I heard it on TSN 1050 this morning as well.. Ceci is still only 24, has good sized is a RHD and put up some decent numbers in the OHL. Would be a decent pick up here and could slot in to the 3rd pairing and move up to the 2nd pairing if Zaitsev's struggles continue.

The only knock on Ceci is that he plays for the Senators
- PatC80

He has some of the worst fancy stats... and it goes well before this past season.

I saw a tweet a while ago, and I dont know what to really make of it..but it was something like Ceci has the worst Puck battles lost per game rating in the NHL. How you track it or who comes up with the info i am not sure. But its pretty funny.

Dubas laughs at the suggestion

They absolutely do. I'm no sports book I wouldn't be surprised if the logic went something like this:

1. The Leafs sign Tavares
2. The Leafs immediately get a lot better, and were the 6th place team last year without him
3. The biggest fanbase in Hockey will no doubt have a ton of people placing bets that the Leafs will win the cup
4. If they place bets at the odds I set, say, 12:1, and they win the cup (which they have a good chance of doing according to my analysts), then I'd have to pay out 12:1 odds for millions of rabid Leafs fans. (high expected value, less profit)
5. If I increase the odds, to say 7:1, then I end up paying all those people less money. (lower expected value, more profit)
- TheMussel

So, in other words... No one, including Vegas, expects the Habs to win the Cup?
- PatC80

except garnie, he loves his Habs

except garnie, he loves his Habs
- Symba007

It's in the family!

That's a poopty way to define a contender when you consider Vegas had terrible odds to win the Cup and yet there they were in the Finals.
- Unholy_Goalie

oh

except garnie, he loves his Habs
- Symba007

Almost as much as Tumble loves the Senators

except garnie, he loves his Habs
- Symba007

We all know that everyone who posts in the Leafs thread is here because they love the Leafs.

He has some of the worst fancy stats... and it goes well before this past season.

I saw a tweet a while ago, and I dont know what to really make of it..but it was something like Ceci has the worst Puck battles lost per game rating in the NHL. How you track it or who comes up with the info i am not sure. But its pretty funny.

Dubas laughs at the suggestion
- senstroll

What kind of stat is that, haven't heard of it before.. If Ottawa trades with Toronto, it might cost a lot.. That's the only reason, I would stay away.. Might be too expensive for us. Still a decent player and would take him here.