This part is the most likely scenario.
- Feds91Stammer

That and not being a team that would take Ryan. I feel like he'd rather downgrade the package for Karlsson if a team was willing to take on Ryan.

IMO a sleeper team that nobody is talking about is WPG. With their Trouba situation and the fact they freed up that money for Stastny, I could see them quietly showing up as a good trade partner.

Everyone is focusing on prospects Ottawa might want, but I think Dorion is only looking to save face and get the best total return.

Important to keep in mind that he traded away their #1 pick next year. He might be inclined to make a trade that will help the team a bit right now rather than going tank mode in a year they don't have their own 1st.

Granted, if you can get Heiskanen or Sergachev with other add ins that could be worth it to them.
- MacPatty

The only savings he wants is getting Ryan off his payroll. If that's not going to happen, you can bet the farm on the fact he wants a young d-stud.

Everyone is focusing on prospects Ottawa might want, but I think Dorion is only looking to save face and get the best total return.

Important to keep in mind that he traded away their #1 pick next year. He might be inclined to make a trade that will help the team a bit right now rather than going tank mode in a year they don't have their own 1st.

Granted, if you can get Heiskanen or Sergachev with other add ins that could be worth it to them.
- MacPatty

Obviously this is the case but a return of Sergachev or Heiskanen by itself is better than a package of okay pieces from PIT.

That and not being a team that would take Ryan. I feel like he'd rather downgrade the package for Karlsson if a team was willing to take on Ryan.

IMO a sleeper team that nobody is talking about is WPG. With their Trouba situation and the fact they freed up that money for Stastny, I could see them quietly showing up as a good trade partner.
- Rinosaur

Not if Ryan is involved imo. They have Laine, Wheeler, and Connor needing contracts next season.

The only savings he wants is getting Ryan off his payroll. If that's not going to happen, you can bet the farm on the fact he wants a young d-stud.
- Rinosaur

Melnyk needing to dump Ryan's contract is why this deal hasn't happened imo.

Nope. Not trying to be a Richard, but I can guarantee you that's a non-starter. Jboyd mentioned Dumoulin and I don't even think that's a starting point. I'm not sure the Pens even have something they want.

Now, if the Pens were a team that could take on Ryan(which they're not), then yeah, you might be able to start with Dumo or Maatta.

Karlsson is not in the cards for the Pens. I've said this a few times, but IMO Letang would need to be the piece going out along with a 1st for real value. I just don't think OTT wants someone like Letang. They want a younger Letang.
- Rinosaur

You are probably right. But if Ottawa wants to make a run at the playoffs rather than folding tent and giving Colorado a top 3 pick, I think they might actually prefer a guy like Schultz who can take over the PP QB role with Karlsson gone. Also consider that the guy they traded that pick (Duchene) for might not want to re-sign for a rebuild and could walk as a FA.

Moot point because I don't think the Pens are in the game at all, just my thoughts.

Not if Ryan is involved imo. They have Laine, Wheeler, and Connor needing contracts next season.
- Feds91Stammer

Wasn't trying to imply Ryan would be a part of that deal in WPG. Trouba IMO is the type of dman they'd want if Ryan is not involved.

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/7/18/12205730/so-you-want-to-sign-an-spc-a-standard-player-contract-primer
- Feds91Stammer

https://www.capfriendly.c...ator/ryan-oreilly#results

Doesn't look right for a $7.5m a year contract. Cap hit aside which would help teams get to the floor.

You are probably right. But if Ottawa wants to make a run at the playoffs rather than folding tent and giving Colorado a top 3 pick, I think they might actually prefer a guy like Schultz who can take over the PP QB role with Karlsson gone. Also consider that the guy they traded that pick (Duchene) for might not want to re-sign for a rebuild and could walk as a FA.

Moot point because I don't think the Pens are in the game at all, just my thoughts.
- MacPatty

The correct route at this point is to dump Karlsson, Duchene, and Stone for all possible assets they can get.

OTT sucked last year with Hoffman and Karlsson. Replacing them with Schultz and Sprong makes them even worse.

They should not be concerned with COL owning their pick at this point.

https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/ryan-oreilly#results

Doesn't look right for a $7.5m a year contract. Cap hit aside which would help teams get to the floor.
- Aussiepenguin

That is the buyout calculator.

See here.

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/ryan-oreilly

Doesn't vary by 50% overall and doesn't vary by 35% year to year.

Dorian is clearly dealing with two decisions:

1) Get a young future top pairing dman and picks for Karlsson

2) Take a lesser package if a team is willing to take Ryan

Caveat: Teams trading for Karlsson may be insisting a deal is worked out beforehand, which seems to be a hold-up. Media speculations is Tampa is the only team he's willing to do that with of the teams involved.

This is going to a long drawn-out process since OTT doesn't need to trade him.

The correct route at this point is to dump Karlsson, Duchene, and Stone for all possible assets they can get.
- Feds91Stammer

I agree here especially hearing that this coming draft is supposed to be super deep. They could get multiple firsts and prospects out of the deal and if they draft well, be a major team in three or four years.

I agree here especially hearing that this coming draft is supposed to be super deep. They could get multiple firsts and prospects out of the deal and if they draft well, be a major team in three or four years.
- Rinosaur

I also believe they need new ownership.

I also believe they need new ownership.
- Feds91Stammer

They'll be in Quebec by then.

That is the buyout calculator.

See here.

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/ryan-oreilly

Doesn't vary by 50% overall and doesn't vary by 35% year to year.
- Feds91Stammer

I know it's the buyout calculator - hence my reference to it in the initial post.

Your 50-35% is different but does explain the numbers on the signing bonuses. So it has changed from previous agreements. The signing bonuses set up buyouts which in my opinion circumvent the cap if/when used.

FWIW, I think the ELCs for Crosby, Ovechkin, and McDavbid were better values than either Kucherov's new deal or bridge deal.

I know it's the buyout calculator - hence my reference to it in the initial post.

Your 50-35% is different but does explain the numbers on the signing bonuses. So it has changed from previous agreements. The signing bonuses set up buyouts which in my opinion circumvent the cap if/when used.
- Aussiepenguin

How?

The example you provided brings a total cap savings of $1,666,667 over the course of 10 years.

The signing bonuses are the exact opposite effect and are what are considered buyout proof deals.

I know it's the buyout calculator - hence my reference to it in the initial post.

Your 50-35% is different but does explain the numbers on the signing bonuses. So it has changed from previous agreements. The signing bonuses set up buyouts which in my opinion circumvent the cap if/when used.
- Aussiepenguin

I could be wrong, but I think signing bonuses factor into the cap hit and, since buyout penalties are the savings of the AAV versus salary paid, would actually increase the buyout hit on the back-end of the contract.

In other words, as base salary decreases, buyout cap hit increases.

But like I said, I could be wrong.

I could be wrong, but I think signing bonuses factor into the cap hit and, since buyout penalties are the savings of the AAV versus salary paid, would actually increase the buyout hit on the back-end of the contract.

In other words, as base salary decreases, buyout cap hit increases.

But like I said, I could be wrong.
- jmatchett383

This is essentially it.

Just look at a Tarasenko buyout vs a ROR buyout.

Tarasenko's contract has 0 bonus money in it so a buyout for him would save $12,333,333 over the next 10 years while ROR has $27.5m in remaining bonuses a buyout for his contract saves only $1,666,667 over the next 10 years.

This is for the same cap hit with the same amount of years remaining too.

This is essentially it.

Just look at a Tarasenko buyout vs a ROR buyout.

Tarasenko's contract has 0 bonus money in it so a buyout for him would save $12,333,333 over the next 10 years while ROR has $27.5m in remaining bonuses a buyout for his contract saves only $1,666,667 over the next 10 years.

This is for the same cap hit with the same amount of years remaining too.
- Feds91Stammer

I actually used Shea Weber as a model, as the base salary and bonuses swing wildly towards the front-end and back-end of the deal.

The correct route at this point is to dump Karlsson, Duchene, and Stone for all possible assets they can get.

OTT sucked last year with Hoffman and Karlsson. Replacing them with Schultz and Sprong makes them even worse.

They should not be concerned with COL owning their pick at this point.
- Feds91Stammer

I agree with everything you are saying. The question is whether Dorion and Melnyk can swallow their pride enough to do this.

I agree with everything you are saying. The question is whether Dorion and Melnyk can swallow their pride enough to do this.
- MacPatty

I would say they have to swallow their ignorance not their pride.

I actually used Shea Weber as a model, as the base salary and bonuses swing wildly towards the front-end and back-end of the deal.
- jmatchett383

My understanding is pretty much any significant portion of bonuses make it nearly impossible to buyout due to lack of cap relief from said buyout.

Going back to taxes, another factor is how the contract is structured. If he's paid the majority via signing bonus, he pays taxes on that in Florida, which we know is federal only. The remaining balance spread out through the year is subject to jock tax.

My understanding is pretty much any significant portion of bonuses make it nearly impossible to buyout due to lack of cap relief from said buyout.
- Feds91Stammer

Yes. The bonuses diminish the base salary while increasing the AAV, making the savings per year so great that a buyout saves a minimal amount, if anything.