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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Shifting star power in Eastern Conference a growing concern for Penguins
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Mino42
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philipsburg, PA
Joined: 08.10.2015

Jul 6 @ 2:28 PM ET
I think that Marner will have more points that Kessel next year. The reason I used 70 points was to show that Kessel's numbers (like Giroux's last year) were likely an abberation, not the norm.

Let me ask this: you can have either Marner or Kessel right now at the same cap hit. Who do you take?

If you don't say Marner, that's just blind homerism.

- jmatchett383

It depends on the length of the deal. If it was 8 more years then of course it would be Marner but if it was only a couple I would stick with Phil.
Barnaby36
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Former Orpik44
Joined: 02.22.2013

Jul 6 @ 2:29 PM ET
No they won't. Crosby 8.7M, Malkin 9.5M. Expect Matthews to want above 10M and Marner close to it. Tavares is 10M+.

Expect 5-6M for Guentzel.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 6 @ 2:30 PM ET
It depends on the length of the deal. If it was 8 more years then of course it would be Marner but if it was only a couple I would stick with Phil.
- Mino42


I think if you took a poll of the 29 teams besides Toronto and Pittsburgh, you'd find you're in the minority.

Kessel is a very good player, but his numbers are likely to take a hit. I think 80 points is realistic for him this year. Marner, with Toronto adding Tavares to their team, is only going to make Marner's numbers go up, I think he's a lock for at least 70, pushing 80.
dcoms77
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Chatham, ON
Joined: 12.26.2013

Jul 6 @ 2:31 PM ET
AND Tampa is going to have to gut their team to afford Karlson and Kucherov extensions.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 6 @ 2:31 PM ET
No they won't. Crosby 8.7M, Malkin 9.5M. Expect Matthews to want above 10M and Marner close to it. Tavares is 10M+.

Expect 5-6M for Guentzel.

- Barnaby36


I think Guentzel will use Pastrnak as a comparable. If you can get him locked up for under $8M, you do it, he's the future.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 6 @ 2:32 PM ET
AND Tampa is going to have to gut their team to afford Karlson and Kucherov extensions.
- dcoms77


Especially if they lose Sergachev in the trade. They'll cut Coburn, Stralman, and Girardi loose and either trade or buy out Callahan, but they'll also probably lose one of Johnson, Palat, or Killorn. That McDonagh trade is gonna kill them.

Buy they have Point and Raddysh to make up for the top-6 scoring they'll lose.
NewfieStud
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 03.04.2013

Jul 6 @ 2:33 PM ET
But Phil Kessel has a Dad bod and makes it work! Marner not at that level yet!
Mino42
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philipsburg, PA
Joined: 08.10.2015

Jul 6 @ 2:36 PM ET
I think if you took a poll of the 29 teams besides Toronto and Pittsburgh, you'd find you're in the minority.

Kessel is a very good player, but his numbers are likely to take a hit. I think 80 points is realistic for him this year. Marner, with Toronto adding Tavares to their team, is only going to make Marner's numbers go up, I think he's a lock for at least 70, pushing 80.

- jmatchett383


I agree with you that Kessel is very unlikely to hit 90 again this year but besides last year (he was playing when he shouldn't have been) Phil has been money in the playoffs. I understand how life works and that your skills go away as you age but Phil has a proven track record in the playoffs and Marner doesn't. I don't think I'm crazy in saying I would take two more years of Kessel over Marner but beyond that I would gladly switch. I just don't think we need to crown the Leafs just yet that and was my point when I started this.
outpost316
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 06.16.2009

Jul 6 @ 2:37 PM ET
Kadri > Brassard
Kessel = Marner
Nylander > Jake

Leafs Cap space > Pens Cap Space

Otherwise agr33d

The amount of stupid in this single post makes me wonder if you are James Tanner under fake account... Kessel = Marner.... ???? LOL. On what planet do you live James?
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 6 @ 2:39 PM ET
I agree with you that Kessel is very unlikely to hit 90 again this year but besides last year (he was playing when he shouldn't have been) Phil has been money in the playoffs. I understand how life works and that your skills go away as you age but Phil has a proven track record in the playoffs and Marner doesn't. I don't think I'm crazy in saying I would take two more years of Kessel over Marner but beyond that I would gladly switch. I just don't think we need to crown the Leafs just yet and was my point when I started this.
- Mino42


Oh, by no means are the Leafs a lock to win the Cup. And sure, they'll have some hard decisions to make with all of their extensions. But doing a 1-for-1 comparison arbitrarily of certain players isn't a great way to prove it.

If I'm a betting man, I still would pick TB to come out of the East this year, with or without EK. But I think Toronto finally makes some noise this year, while I think the Pens will tread water.

Edit: If healthy, I still think the Pens go to the ECF.
WSCTeton17
Joined: 07.29.2013

Jul 6 @ 2:41 PM ET
Kadri > Brassard
Kessel = Marner
Nylander > Jake

Leafs Cap space > Pens Cap Space

Otherwise agr33d

- Cape Breton Bruins

Agreed for sure. Kadri > Brass
Amanion
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 07.02.2012

Jul 6 @ 2:45 PM ET
Oh, by no means are the Leafs a lock to win the Cup. And sure, they'll have some hard decisions to make with all of their extensions. But doing a 1-for-1 comparison arbitrarily of certain players isn't a great way to prove it.

If I'm a betting man, I still would pick TB to come out of the East this year, with or without EK. But I think Toronto finally makes some noise this year, while I think the Pens will tread water.

Edit: If healthy, I still think the Pens go to the ECF.

- jmatchett383

Sounds like anti Pittsburgh Homerism to me. I believe if Pens survived Caps last year they would have won Cup. They didnt. Tampa doesnt scare me because we have played well against them over the years. That said, if EK goes to Tampa, you are looking at a Golden State style super team. I would not like Pens chances against TB then
WSCTeton17
Joined: 07.29.2013

Jul 6 @ 2:45 PM ET
I agree with you that Kessel is very unlikely to hit 90 again this year but besides last year (he was playing when he shouldn't have been) Phil has been money in the playoffs. I understand how life works and that your skills go away as you age but Phil has a proven track record in the playoffs and Marner doesn't. I don't think I'm crazy in saying I would take two more years of Kessel over Marner but beyond that I would gladly switch. I just don't think we need to crown the Leafs just yet that and was my point when I started this.
- Mino42

What’s the ratio of Phil’s “money” goals that are snipes in the playoffs vs tap ins gifted to him by Hagelin, Bonini, Sid, and Geno? A good chunk of his goals are absolute snipes, but another good chunk are backdoor beauties. The proof is in the Pens playoff goal highlights on YouTube
Mino42
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philipsburg, PA
Joined: 08.10.2015

Jul 6 @ 2:46 PM ET
Oh, by no means are the Leafs a lock to win the Cup. And sure, they'll have some hard decisions to make with all of their extensions. But doing a 1-for-1 comparison arbitrarily of certain players isn't a great way to prove it.

If I'm a betting man, I still would pick TB to come out of the East this year, with or without EK. But I think Toronto finally makes some noise this year, while I think the Pens will tread water.

- jmatchett383

I mostly agree with you. TBL is going to be tough and if they get EK look out. Everyone this time last year was down on the Caps and we saw how worked out. The Leafs need to fix that D if they want to make it outta the first round. I see it being another tough year to come outta the east.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 6 @ 2:48 PM ET
Sounds like anti Pittsburgh Homerism to me. I believe if Pens survived Caps last year they would have won Cup. They didnt. Tampa doesnt scare me because we have played well against them over the years. That said, if EK goes to Tampa, you are looking at a Golden State style super team. I would not like Pens chances against TB then
- Amanion


So the fact that I rooted for Pittsburgh to win the Cup the past 3 years (sans the first round last year) makes me anti-Pittsburgh? I guess I'm not a real Steelers fan either when I wave my Terrible Towel around every Sunday too.

But nice try.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 6 @ 2:49 PM ET
I mostly agree with you. TBL is going to be tough and if they get EK look out. Everyone this time last year was down on the Caps and we saw how worked out. The Leafs need to fix that D if they want to make it outta the first round. I see it being another tough year to come outta the east.
- Mino42


Hey, if the Penguins could win a Cup playing Ron Hainsey on their top pair, I don't see what's stopping the Leafs from doing something similar.
Mino42
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philipsburg, PA
Joined: 08.10.2015

Jul 6 @ 2:50 PM ET
So the fact that I rooted for Pittsburgh to win the Cup the past 3 years (sans the first round last year) makes me anti-Pittsburgh? I guess I'm not a real Steelers fan either when I wave my Terrible Towel around every Sunday too.

But nice try.

- jmatchett383

He didn't mean it...
bird899
Joined: 07.01.2010

Jul 6 @ 2:53 PM ET
Only RW would get a hard on over signing Ennis. Anyone under 5’9 and can skate RW drools over and bashes any bigger player. Napoleon complex at its finest
Mino42
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philipsburg, PA
Joined: 08.10.2015

Jul 6 @ 2:53 PM ET
Hey, if the Penguins could win a Cup playing Ron Hainsey on their top pair, I don't see what's stopping the Leafs from doing something similar.
- jmatchett383

Yeah but the Pens didn't have 5 Ron Hainsey's and a Morgan Reilly. Even without Letang they had guys that could step up into the play and move the puck.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 6 @ 2:54 PM ET
He didn't mean it...
- Mino42


I hope not. I don't hide the fact that I'm a Flyers fan. But growing up, I always liked the Penguins (prior to Crosby, the hate didn't go both ways, sorry guys), too. Then when I got married, my wife's family is from Pittsburgh, so I watched them even more.

I'm not the biggest fan of Malkin, I never liked Kunitz, and I think Letang is a Richard, but I never had a problem rooting for them as a team unless they play the Flyers.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 6 @ 2:54 PM ET
Yeah but the Pens didn't have 5 Ron Hainsey's and a Morgan Reilly. Even without Letang they had guys that could step up into the play and move the puck.
- Mino42


I think Toronto's D can move the puck. Stopping the other team from moving the puck will be their issue.
Nucker101
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 09.26.2010

Jul 6 @ 2:55 PM ET
I think Guentzel will use Pastrnak as a comparable. If you can get him locked up for under $8M, you do it, he's the future.
- jmatchett383


God I hope so. Especially since Pastrnak is better
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 6 @ 2:58 PM ET
God I hope so. Especially since Pastrnak is better
- Nucker101


Guentzel has a high PPG average over his first 2 seasons than Pastrnak had, and has been money in the playoffs.
Mino42
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philipsburg, PA
Joined: 08.10.2015

Jul 6 @ 2:59 PM ET
I think Toronto's D can move the puck. Stopping the other team from moving the puck will be their issue.
- jmatchett383

Well they did have Roman Polak so I stand by my statement.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 6 @ 3:01 PM ET
Well they did have Roman Polak so I stand by my statement.

- Mino42


I agree.
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