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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: What will the Leafs goaltending picture look like next season??
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Unholy_Goalie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: usually UG offends everyone by telling the truth - dt99999, ON
Joined: 08.23.2006

May 30 @ 12:08 AM ET
Whoever the back-up ends up being, he has to be able to play minimum 25 games, if not 30 games. The Leafs D is unlikely to improve by leaps and bounds overnight and overworking Andersen is a bad plan that has backfired before and can't continue. To help keep Andersen fresh in the short term, they need a back-up who can play more than once a month and it's easier to get a good back-up than it is the help they need on D. But they D definitely needs to be improved too.

Sparks was by far the best goalie in the AHL and he can't get sent back down. He definitely deserves a chance to prove he can be the back-up next year. But he has no proven pedigree in the NHL which means if he can't cut it, the Leafs will be right back where they started with Andersen facing 2,000+ shots. Going with Sparks could be a risk but I'd have no problem with giving him the chance if he earns it in camp.

McElhinney played very good last year and literally had a career year. The way he was playing, he should have played more games, especially down the stretch when 3rd place was all but guaranteed. However, the odds of him doing that again are slim to none. He's at an advanced age and he's always been a journeymen goalie. Definitely looks like a sell high situation because a couple bad starts and his value disappears completely and keeping him means Sparks is likely gone. In any scenario, McElhinney probably has to get traded.

Another option could be sending out an offer sheet to either Juuse Saros in Nashville or Philipp Grubauer in Washington. Both teams could chose to let those goalies walk if the price is too high and the Leafs could go as high as 3.9 million AAV and only give up a 2nd round pick. And both goalies are potential starters and reasonably young. Either one could be the goalie of the future and even at a high price of 3.9 million a year, it puts the Leafs total at 8.9 million spent on goalies. If either one plays 30+ games a year at a high level, the slight overpayment would be worth it, especially if they prove to actually be better than Andersen which is entirely possible too.

Emil Garipov is also an option from the KHL, as is drafting and/or acquiring Veini Vehvilainen and Kaapo Kahkonen to add to the future goaltending depth and replace Sparks if they move him and get a veteran goalie as the back-up.

All that being said, I could see them going out and still getting a back-up as a UFA like Cam Ward. He's 34 and not as good as he use to be but he's an experienced starter who could provide the Leafs with 25-30 solid starts and he's always played well in Toronto for some reason. Khudobin is also a UFA and so is Bernier but odds are Babcock wouldn't go for that again even though he proved to be an effective back-up capable of playing 35+ games the past two years.
MaximusAurelius
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: #FireDubas
Joined: 04.23.2012

May 30 @ 4:11 AM ET
Since I'm the self-proclaimed goalie expert on here , I'll weigh in on this..

Leafs best option: trade McElhinney and Sparks. make a small trade for Grubauer's rights. sign Grubauer. Have a solid goalie tandem in Andersen and Grubauer - see who comes out on top as #1. It depends a bit what Grubauer would be looking for in salary, might be a bit too much with a contract similar to Raanta's (and Flyers probably all over Grubauer to sign him as their next starting goalie).

Leafs next best option:
trade Andersen for Schneider.
Unless Schneider is injured - which he is almost certainly not - he still has 3-4 good seasons in him, seasons better than Andersen can provide Leafs with.
This scenario prevents Leafs as well what to do 3-4 years from now with Andersen when Woll emerges as an NHL starting goalie.

[option 1 and 2 can be combined; Schneider + Grubauer tandem]

Regarding Sparks:
Trade him.
He's not a #1 NHL goalie. His rebound control is atrocious. He's had a nice season - he'll not be a better backup than McElhinney; in fact worse because he'll have more issues with only playing 15-25 games per season..
If you can get a high 2nd round pick 2018 for Sparks, that's a good deal.
I think Arizona needs a backup; TB, St Louis, Calgary, Carolina, SJ, Ott, Buf, NYI, Phi, Detroit all could be looking for some changes in goal (backup position) as well..
gravyface
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I wouldn't even trade [Marner] for McDavid -- UsernameUnknown
Joined: 02.19.2009

May 30 @ 6:12 AM ET
I'm sorry for the fans of McBackup, but you don't drop a 24 year old on waivers. You keep him and trade the 35 year old backup. What is Andersen asks for 6.5 plus on his next deal? I haven't seen anyone in the Leafs system who is even close.
- Falon




Yeah, and I think having a tandem option down the road isn't never a bad idea.

Fleury/Murray worked out pretty good, despite losing one, both teams have now prospered (even though Fleury's numbers this playoffs are an aberration, VGK isn't complaining).
gravyface
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I wouldn't even trade [Marner] for McDavid -- UsernameUnknown
Joined: 02.19.2009

May 30 @ 6:22 AM ET
Whoever the back-up ends up being, he has to be able to play minimum 25 games, if not 30 games. The Leafs D is unlikely to improve by leaps and bounds overnight and overworking Andersen is a bad plan that has backfired before and can't continue. To help keep Andersen fresh in the short term, they need a back-up who can play more than once a month and it's easier to get a good back-up than it is the help they need on D. But they D definitely needs to be improved too.

Sparks was by far the best goalie in the AHL and he can't get sent back down. He definitely deserves a chance to prove he can be the back-up next year. But he has no proven pedigree in the NHL which means if he can't cut it, the Leafs will be right back where they started with Andersen facing 2,000+ shots. Going with Sparks could be a risk but I'd have no problem with giving him the chance if he earns it in camp.

McElhinney played very good last year and literally had a career year. The way he was playing, he should have played more games, especially down the stretch when 3rd place was all but guaranteed. However, the odds of him doing that again are slim to none. He's at an advanced age and he's always been a journeymen goalie. Definitely looks like a sell high situation because a couple bad starts and his value disappears completely and keeping him means Sparks is likely gone. In any scenario, McElhinney probably has to get traded.

Another option could be sending out an offer sheet to either Juuse Saros in Nashville or Philipp Grubauer in Washington. Both teams could chose to let those goalies walk if the price is too high and the Leafs could go as high as 3.9 million AAV and only give up a 2nd round pick. And both goalies are potential starters and reasonably young. Either one could be the goalie of the future and even at a high price of 3.9 million a year, it puts the Leafs total at 8.9 million spent on goalies. If either one plays 30+ games a year at a high level, the slight overpayment would be worth it, especially if they prove to actually be better than Andersen which is entirely possible too.

Emil Garipov is also an option from the KHL, as is drafting and/or acquiring Veini Vehvilainen and Kaapo Kahkonen to add to the future goaltending depth and replace Sparks if they move him and get a veteran goalie as the back-up.

All that being said, I could see them going out and still getting a back-up as a UFA like Cam Ward. He's 34 and not as good as he use to be but he's an experienced starter who could provide the Leafs with 25-30 solid starts and he's always played well in Toronto for some reason. Khudobin is also a UFA and so is Bernier but odds are Babcock wouldn't go for that again even though he proved to be an effective back-up capable of playing 35+ games the past two years.

- Unholy_Goalie


Yes to Sparks. It's the least they can do and Dubas would know best -- having run the team the last few years -- if Sparks is going to cut it in the NHL.

As for Leafs' D, I agree: that right-side is atrocious, and Boston tore it apart; help there could come from within (Zaitsev being healthy, having a rebound year), but they need a top 4 on the right-side to push Hainsey down big-time.

Also, we like to pin the hopes on the backend, but the forwards could really play a better possession game next year and shot suppression starts with F3 knowing what's going on and what to do. Replacing Bozak and JVR would help a lot here; I'll take the 5-10 less goals for a LW that's willing to play both ends of the ice (Johnsson).
MaximusAurelius
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: #FireDubas
Joined: 04.23.2012

May 30 @ 6:48 AM ET
Yes to Sparks. It's the least they can do and Dubas would know best -- having run the team the last few years -- if Sparks is going to cut it in the NHL.

As for Leafs' D, I agree: that right-side is atrocious, and Boston tore it apart; help there could come from within (Zaitsev being healthy, having a rebound year), but they need a top 4 on the right-side to push Hainsey down big-time.

Also, we like to pin the hopes on the backend, but the forwards could really play a better possession game next year and shot suppression starts with F3 knowing what's going on and what to do. Replacing Bozak and JVR would help a lot here; I'll take the 5-10 less goals for a LW that's willing to play both ends of the ice (Johnsson).

- gravyface


Difference between Marlies and other AHL teams - no salary cap in AHL.
Not too put a negative spin on Marlies' recent success and Dubas' 'magic', but it's easier to add some good veterans (Greening, Clune, Smith, Loverde) to a good core of young players, than if you have limits in salary (and other financial restrictiosn re services around AHL team) ..

Sparks isn't that good of a goalie ; his ceiling is nhl mediocre backup.
gravyface
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I wouldn't even trade [Marner] for McDavid -- UsernameUnknown
Joined: 02.19.2009

May 30 @ 7:01 AM ET
Difference between Marlies and other AHL teams - no salary cap in AHL.
Not too put a negative spin on Marlies' recent success and Dubas' 'magic', but it's easier to add some good veterans (Greening, Clune, Smith, Loverde) to a good core of young players, than if you have limits in salary (and other financial restrictiosn re services around AHL team) ..

Sparks isn't that good of a goalie ; his ceiling is nhl mediocre backup.

- MaximusAurelius


How could you possible label him with the limited amount of NHL games he played?

Like, the flow chart on evaluating goalie prospects goes something like, "is player a goalie? Yes/No. Yes? Roll dice. Goalies are an enigma wrapped in a riddle wrapped in a suit of armour".

17 games played on a last place team and you don't think he's an NHL goalie.
MaximusAurelius
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: #FireDubas
Joined: 04.23.2012

May 30 @ 7:26 AM ET
How could you possible label him with the limited amount of NHL games he played?

Like, the flow chart on evaluating goalie prospects goes something like, "is player a goalie? Yes/No. Yes? Roll dice. Goalies are an enigma wrapped in a riddle wrapped in a suit of armour".

17 games played on a last place team and you don't think he's an NHL goalie.

- gravyface


I've seen enough of Sparks (AHL/NHL) to be certain he's not an NHL starter.
burn
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tavares is sledge hockey level - Islesrbettr, ON
Joined: 08.02.2006

May 30 @ 7:29 AM ET
I've seen enough of Sparks (AHL/NHL) to be certain he's not an NHL starter.
- MaximusAurelius



What does that have to do with him being backup?
MaximusAurelius
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: #FireDubas
Joined: 04.23.2012

May 30 @ 7:40 AM ET
What does that have to do with him being backup?
- burn

Apart from McSavey (incredible numbers last year, and seems to fit in really well) Leafs also have Pickard.
A guy that has actually served as an NHL backup (almost a hundred games) and done well.
There's not a lot of difference between both players as for potential, but Spark's trade value and expectations are surely a bit higher - hence why you keep Pickard as a potential backup and trade Sparks.
burn
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tavares is sledge hockey level - Islesrbettr, ON
Joined: 08.02.2006

May 30 @ 7:42 AM ET
Apart from McSavey (incredible numbers last year, and seems to fit in really well) Leafs also have Pickard.
A guy that has actually served as an NHL backup (almost a hundred games) and done well.
There's not a lot of difference between both players as for potential, but Spark's trade value and expectations are surely a bit higher - hence why you keep Pickard as a potential backup and trade Sparks.

- MaximusAurelius



Sure, that's fine but not what you originally said. You said you've seen enough of sparks to know that he isn't a starter in the nhl.

.HOHO.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Its better to let people think you're an idiot, than to open your mouth and confirm their suspicions, NS
Joined: 07.05.2010

May 30 @ 7:47 AM ET
You guys don't understand my dilemma, my cabin is a framed 2x4 tent with a tarped roof , screens for windows and poly for walls..
- bobbyisno1



Get a better cabin, dopey!
MaximusAurelius
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: #FireDubas
Joined: 04.23.2012

May 30 @ 7:49 AM ET
Sure, that's fine but not what you originally said. You said you've seen enough of sparks to know that he isn't a starter in the nhl.
- burn


correct.
he isn't.
that's why i was talking about the backup position.
Leafs do have an 'issue' in goal - it's the starting position which they might consider upgrading.
Sparks, Pickard, McSavey all three options for the backup position playing 20-25 games/season. MsSavey seems best option there, then Pickard, then Sparks.
winsix
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Henry Hudson's Fairchild 24 South Porcupine
Joined: 04.03.2016

May 30 @ 8:03 AM ET
correct.
he isn't.
that's why i was talking about the backup position.
Leafs do have an 'issue' in goal - it's the starting position which they might consider upgrading.
Sparks, Pickard, McSavey all three options for the backup position playing 20-25 games/season. MsSavey seems best option there, then Pickard, then Sparks.

- MaximusAurelius


Goaltending is not the main issue with the Leafs. There is a strong correlation between teams playing well and the performance of the goaltenders. Andersen is slightly better than the average starter, the list attached puts him one spot behind Price in 11th. I agree largely with this list and getting better d-men is a much bigger priority at this point.

https://www.nhl.com/news/...s-for-2017-18/c-282860450
MaximusAurelius
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: #FireDubas
Joined: 04.23.2012

May 30 @ 8:11 AM ET
Goaltending is not the main issue with the Leafs. There is a strong correlation between teams playing well and the performance of the goaltenders. Andersen is slightly better than the average starter, the list attached puts him one spot behind Price in 11th. I agree largely with this list and getting better d-men is a much bigger priority at this point.

https://www.nhl.com/news/...s-for-2017-18/c-282860450

- winsix


Andersen has been quite bad when it matters most - during the playoffs.
your rankings are fantasy so not really the same of 'who is the best goalie in NHL rankings'.
Honestly, Robin Lehner on Leafs would give same results as Andersen.
The issue is, you would like to get a top goalie on your team (similar to Lundqvist in his prime, the Price, Holtby, etc. category).
Adam French
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Isn't Cooley 5"11? You know who else is 5"11? Sydney Crosby. - Scabeh
Joined: 04.06.2011

May 30 @ 8:13 AM ET
The Bozek will be the goalie.
MaximusAurelius
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: #FireDubas
Joined: 04.23.2012

May 30 @ 8:14 AM ET
The Grabner will be the goalie.
- AdamFrench


buddzy
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 03.03.2017

May 30 @ 8:31 AM ET
Difference between Marlies and other AHL teams - no salary cap in AHL.
Not too put a negative spin on Marlies' recent success and Dubas' 'magic', but it's easier to add some good veterans (Greening, Clune, Smith, Loverde) to a good core of young players, than if you have limits in salary (and other financial restrictiosn re services around AHL team) ..

Sparks isn't that good of a goalie ; his ceiling is nhl mediocre backup.

- MaximusAurelius


How can you possibly know for sure what Sparks' ceiling is?
Adam French
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Isn't Cooley 5"11? You know who else is 5"11? Sydney Crosby. - Scabeh
Joined: 04.06.2011

May 30 @ 8:38 AM ET
How can you possibly know for sure what Sparks' ceiling is?
- buddzy

He used the measuring tape.
MaximusAurelius
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: #FireDubas
Joined: 04.23.2012

May 30 @ 8:38 AM ET
I wonder that - if 'rumours' are true indeed - if Matthews indeed requested to have Marner on his wing, where that would leave the rest of the FW lineup..

Hyman - Matthews - Marner
?? - Tavares / Nylander - Nylander / ??
Marleau - Kadri - Brown
Johnsson - ?? - Kapanen

wonder whether Leafs, instead of pursuing Tavares, might actually try and pursue an RFA like Zucker or Domi for 2nd line LW or RFA Stone or Mantha to play RW with Nylander..

trading for them would costs Leafs alot, but an offer sheet would be an option..
Not sure what salary Stone is looking for, but a 5.85mln/7y deal might be enough for Ott not to match if they want to retain Karlsson on their team...

Going forward, and Tavares probably being the best UFA available in NHL history - that might actually be a better scenario for the Leafs than 'just' getting Tavares..:

Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Zucker (trade?) - Nylander - Stone (offersheet)
Marleau - Kadri - Brown
Johnsson - x - Kapanen

top3 FW group in league.
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

May 30 @ 8:40 AM ET
Apart from McSavey (incredible numbers last year, and seems to fit in really well) Leafs also have Pickard.
A guy that has actually served as an NHL backup (almost a hundred games) and done well.
There's not a lot of difference between both players as for potential, but Spark's trade value and expectations are surely a bit higher - hence why you keep Pickard as a potential backup and trade Sparks.

- MaximusAurelius

Uh?
So trade the young upcoming goalie and the old goalie that most nhl teams wouldnt want.
Good strategy for building long term success.
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

May 30 @ 8:41 AM ET
How can you possibly know for sure what Sparks' ceiling is?
- buddzy

He doesnt.
No clue.
MaximusAurelius
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: #FireDubas
Joined: 04.23.2012

May 30 @ 8:42 AM ET
He doesnt.
No clue.

- Fakepartofme


still always right on the goalies
zazzle
Joined: 01.19.2013

May 30 @ 8:48 AM ET
still always right on the goalies
- MaximusAurelius

MaximusAurelius
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: #FireDubas
Joined: 04.23.2012

May 30 @ 8:51 AM ET
an interesting bit on Zaitsev, Ozhaginov, Rosen, Borgman etc. and any European players.

I'm listening to a podcast (1y old) and apparently under current CBA, Leafs could just 'retire' Zaitsev to Europe after x years - still pay him, but no cap hit.
I never thought that was possible, but that obviously creates quite an interesting dynamic.
I think that only goes for under35 year olds, so not applicable for Kovalchuk situation.

Any thoughts?
Archaic
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Waterloo, ON
Joined: 01.12.2011

May 30 @ 8:54 AM ET
still always right on the goalies
- MaximusAurelius

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