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Forums :: Blog World :: Matt Henderson: Oilers Drafting 10th...If At All
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Iggysbff
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Peter Chiarelli is a fking moron, Calgary, AB
Joined: 07.12.2012

Apr 30 @ 9:40 PM ET
I can provide a significant argument to the contrary but I know you've seen it before so I'll spare you seeing it again 🤙
- MaximumBone

And I’d easily refute it...again
Iggysbff
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Peter Chiarelli is a fking moron, Calgary, AB
Joined: 07.12.2012

Apr 30 @ 9:42 PM ET
Not totally unreasonable.
I mean he’s proven beyond a doubt when he healthy he can be an effective top pairing guy.

for all of Larssons deficiencies, they played off each other well and allowed them to each concentrate on their strengths. (Larsson defensive conscience and Klefbom roaming/moving the puck to put it simply) and it’s no coincidence both had mediocre years this season as things didn’t go smoothly (injuries- played away from each other etc)

By all accounts surgery was succesfull, but yes, if you mean this seasons shoulder injury may give someone pause- that’s fair.

- HB77


I still also maintain that Larsson was ok last year with Klef but it wasn’t Larsson that enabled Klef to do what he did. He had some Norris discussion around him ffs. And his numbers the year prior were almost identical without Larsson on a much much pooptier team.
HB77
Edmonton Oilers
Location: PC is a genius for drafting mcdavid
Joined: 02.20.2007

Apr 30 @ 9:44 PM ET
You can maintain that...but you’re still wrong

Even with his down year Klef was and is our best overall.

And he’s better than Risto in most aspects of the game.

- Iggysbff

Agreed

As I’ve said, I think larsson somewhat allowed Klefbom to really blossom the previous season and they were a satisfactory top pair that the sum was probably greater than the individual parts.
But even with that said, Oscar was the real strength in that pair.

AL is just too limited. without a true puck mover beside him, while still a very solid nhl player, kind of an ordinary stay at home 2nd pairing guy
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Apr 30 @ 9:53 PM ET
I still also maintain that Larsson was ok last year with Klef but it wasn’t Larsson that enabled Klef to do what he did. He had some Norris discussion around him ffs. And his numbers the year prior were almost identical without Larsson on a much much pooptier team.
- Iggysbff

Klef's numbers may have been functionally similar that year, but the role he played during that year was functionally very different. He was generally the defensive conscience on a line that saw well-deployed offensive minutes before his injury. Conveniently, this is also the spot where I think his talents are best utilized and his weaknesses least exploitable.
Iggysbff
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Peter Chiarelli is a fking moron, Calgary, AB
Joined: 07.12.2012

Apr 30 @ 9:53 PM ET
Agreed

As I’ve said, I think larsson somewhat allowed Klefbom to really blossom the previous season and they were a satisfactory top pair that the sum was probably greater than the individual parts.
But even with that said, Oscar was the real strength in that pair.

AL is just too limited. without a true puck mover beside him, while still a very solid nhl player, kind of an ordinary stay at home 2nd pairing guy

- HB77


Larsson is a really good shut down man. Period. Totally inept in puck moving and
Offense.

And the Lightning are quickly gaining reputations this playoffs as whiny dirty female genitalias.
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Apr 30 @ 9:57 PM ET
And I’d easily refute it...again
- Iggysbff

Disagree with that, too. You've stated your opinion on the matter and made it clear that your valuation of Dmen differs from my own. Refuting would require that you proved me invariably wrong.
Iggysbff
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Peter Chiarelli is a fking moron, Calgary, AB
Joined: 07.12.2012

Apr 30 @ 9:59 PM ET
Disagree with that, too. You've stated your opinion on the matter and made it clear that your valuation of Dmen differs from my own. Refuting would require that you proved me invariably wrong.
- MaximumBone


And I have...but you being a stubborn soulless ginger just refuse to admit it
Trevor_Neufeld
Calgary Flames
Location: Calgary, AB
Joined: 02.11.2007

Apr 30 @ 10:01 PM ET
Larsson is a really good shut down man. Period. Totally inept in puck moving and
Offense.

And the Lightning are quickly gaining reputations this playoffs as whiny dirty female genitalias.

- Iggysbff


That game was bs
Iggysbff
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Peter Chiarelli is a fking moron, Calgary, AB
Joined: 07.12.2012

Apr 30 @ 10:03 PM ET
That game was bs
- fry

I mean they are playing the Bruins...and making them look like saints... that’s a feat.
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Apr 30 @ 10:17 PM ET
Agreed

As I’ve said, I think larsson somewhat allowed Klefbom to really blossom the previous season and they were a satisfactory top pair that the sum was probably greater than the individual parts.
But even with that said, Oscar was the real strength in that pair.

AL is just too limited. without a true puck mover beside him, while still a very solid nhl player, kind of an ordinary stay at home 2nd pairing guy

- HB77

I'm gonna take issue with this statement on two fronts.

The first being your use of ordinary (kinda semantic, I know) as he is anything but an ordinary 2nd pairing guy. Your wording there implies you place him on a tier with the average second pairing shutdown Dman (Braun/Dillon, Hamonic, McNabb, Methot, K Miller) when he's well ahead of that.

My second contention is the implication that a player of his type and ability isn't vital to the core of a Cup-winning team. I've laid this out before but all the best teams employ a defenseman who faces top competition and either saws them off in GF% or stifles them to the point where they allow their forwards to outscore them. Of the former, we have Hjalmarsson, Mitchell, Vlasic, Manson, Dumoulin to a slightly lesser degree- this is the category under which Larsson falls.

To the latter, you have the rare breed like Chara, Hedman, Doughty, this year's Pietrangelo, seemingly all of Nashville's top-4 (systems likely help), and Lindholm to a lesser degree. These are obviously hard to find and even harder to acquire. Fortunately, there's also a newer style archetype of this player type that started with guys like Stralman and Niskanen that offers a lite-version of those players. I think this is the role Klefbom will be best suited to with appropriate deployment.
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Apr 30 @ 10:24 PM ET
And I have...but you being a stubborn soulless ginger just refuse to admit it
- Iggysbff

Before we begin this (again), can we both agree that Larsson and his pairing was the shutdown pairing? His was the one Todd defaulted to using against the opposition's top players, correct?
Iggysbff
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Peter Chiarelli is a fking moron, Calgary, AB
Joined: 07.12.2012

Apr 30 @ 10:49 PM ET
Before we begin this (again), can we both agree that Larsson and his pairing was the shutdown pairing? His was the one Todd defaulted to using against the opposition's top players, correct?
- MaximumBone

Yes I can agree to that. But can you agree that Larsson is totally inept at making break out passes and at making any kind of transition play without either dumping it out or passing over to his Defense partner or rimming it around the boards to get out without making an excuse that it’s just Todd’s system?
HB77
Edmonton Oilers
Location: PC is a genius for drafting mcdavid
Joined: 02.20.2007

Apr 30 @ 10:53 PM ET
I'm gonna take issue with this statement on two fronts.

The first being your use of ordinary (kinda semantic, I know) as he is anything but an ordinary 2nd pairing guy. Your wording there implies you place him on a tier with the average second pairing shutdown Dman (Braun/Dillon, Hamonic, McNabb, Methot, K Miller) when he's well ahead of that.

-I think this is pretty much exactly the caliber he is. What makes him so much superior to those guys?
It’s not really a slag either cause those types can also be integral to a succesfull team. As you’ve stated in the next stanza.
I mean some of them are right now



My second contention is the implication that a player of his type and ability isn't vital to the core of a Cup-winning team. I've laid this out before but all the best teams employ a defenseman who faces top competition and either saws them off in GF% or stifles them to the point where they allow their forwards to outscore them. Of the former, we have Hjalmarsson, Mitchell, Vlasic, Manson, Dumoulin to a slightly lesser degree- this is the category under which Larsson falls.

- u think Adam Larsson is of the top pairing caliber of vlasic !? I can’t agree there.
The rest- maybe. I mean he’s good no question. But he’s just so inept at moving the puck and starting transition. And he’s a mediocre skater too. He can break a forecheck which is a great skill, but he relies on his Partner for outlets.
Not the skater Manson is either. Just sayin
.




To the latter, you have the rare breed like Chara, Hedman, Doughty, this year's Pietrangelo, seemingly all of Nashville's top-4 (systems likely help), and Lindholm to a lesser degree. These are obviously hard to find and even harder to acquire. Fortunately, there's also a newer style archetype of this player type that started with guys like Stralman and Niskanen that offers a lite-version of those players. I think this is the role Klefbom will be best suited to with appropriate deployment.

- MaximumBone


I like larsson. Glad to have him. Just don’t think he’s anything close to what we hoped he would be when we dealt for him. And I don’t think his skating/offensive instincts can be improved enough to ever really get there either
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Apr 30 @ 11:00 PM ET
Yes I can agree to that. But can you agree that Larsson is totally inept at making break out passes and at making any kind of transition play without either dumping it out or passing over to his Defense partner or rimming it around the boards to get out without making an excuse that it’s just Todd’s system?
- Iggysbff

I won't concede that he's totally inept at this because that's provably wrong. I will concede it's not his strong point but the frequency with which he dumps the puck out, rims it around or resets to his partner is inflated under Todd's method of breakout. I'm not saying he wouldn't do it if not under another coach, but if the same can be observed in Klefbom AND Sekera (two quality puckmovers), then the same WILL be true of Larsson (and the others).

So evidently not?
HB77
Edmonton Oilers
Location: PC is a genius for drafting mcdavid
Joined: 02.20.2007

Apr 30 @ 11:06 PM ET
I won't concede that he's totally inept at this because that's provably wrong. I will concede it's not his strong point but the frequency with which he dumps the puck out, rims it around or resets to his partner is inflated under Todd's method of breakout. I'm not saying he wouldn't do it if not under another coach, but if the same can be observed in Klefbom AND Sekera (two quality puckmovers), then the same WILL be true of Larsson (and the others).

So evidently not?

- MaximumBone


It being part of system/relying on it as a safety net is one thing.
It being your default is something else totally.

Seks and klef will Always look to create transition, even if they don’t always and as u said, also rely on clearing in that manner. I mean every defender does.

But their skill set and ability are apples and oranges
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Apr 30 @ 11:17 PM ET
I think this is pretty much exactly the caliber he is. What makes him so much superior to those guys?
It’s not really a slag either cause those types can also be integral to a succesfull team. As you’ve stated in the next stanza.
I mean some of them are right now

u think Adam Larsson is of the top pairing caliber of vlasic !? I can’t agree there. The rest- maybe. I mean he’s good no question. But he’s just so inept at moving the puck and starting transition. And he’s a mediocre skater too. He can break a forecheck which is a great skill, but he relies on his Partner for outlets.
Not the skater Manson is either. Just sayin.

I like larsson. Glad to have him. Just don’t think he’s anything close to what we hoped he would be when we dealt for him. And I don’t think his skating/offensive instincts can be improved enough to ever really get there either

- HB77

What makes him superior to those guys is that he's the anchor of a shutdown pairing. The argument could be made on Braun, but he doesn't seem to be the driver of shutdown results with Vlasic on his pairing. Dillon, Methot and Miller are or were the defensive presences on softer minute pairings (Burns, Karlsson and Krug), Hamonic has noticeably inferior results since taking on the shutdown role in New York and McNabb currently lacks the track record of shutdown success.

I think Larsson has the shutdown ability of Vlasic and is about where Vlasic was at the same age (low offensive output). Coincidentally, look at Vlasic being a prime example of a guy who improved his offensive instincts and results as he aged through his prime (https://www.nhl.com/playe...rc-edouard-vlasic-8471709). This isn't to say I think he WILL do so; merely a recognition and counter to a point you made.

My point is that even without any potential added offense, his abilities make him worth FAR more than the title of simply ordinary 2nd pairing shutdown guy.
HB77
Edmonton Oilers
Location: PC is a genius for drafting mcdavid
Joined: 02.20.2007

Apr 30 @ 11:30 PM ET
What makes him superior to those guys is that he's the anchor of a shutdown pairing. The argument could be made on Braun, but he doesn't seem to be the driver of shutdown results with Vlasic on his pairing. Dillon, Methot and Miller are or were the defensive presences on softer minute pairings (Burns, Karlsson and Krug), Hamonic has noticeably inferior results since taking on the shutdown role in New York and McNabb currently lacks the track record of shutdown success.

I think Larsson has the shutdown ability of Vlasic and is about where Vlasic was at the same age (low offensive output). Coincidentally, look at Vlasic being a prime example of a guy who improved his offensive instincts and results as he aged through his prime (https://www.nhl.com/playe...rc-edouard-vlasic-8471709). This isn't to say I think he WILL do so; merely a recognition and counter to a point you made.

My point is that even without any potential added offense, his abilities make him worth FAR more than the title of simply ordinary 2nd pairing shutdown guy.

- MaximumBone

The real crux is how truly effective is that shutdown pairing.
I mean one can say he might anchor it in a manner unlike some of the other guys, but it could be as much of an indication of the partner larsson has. and as mentioned, how successful said pairing is.

It’s almost like you’re penalizing the other guys for being the defensive presence on a More well rounded pairing because of the skill set of their partner. Not every team employs a pure shutdown pair. Or more importantly, necessarily even has to. But this isn’t an indication that said defensive conscience of pairing is inferior per se

As far as vlasic, those numbers were INterestkng to see. Just by eye I dont think he has the offensive instincts and passing skills that vlasic possesses, but ill
Admit I don’t really remember if those were nonexistent early on his career and developed as time went on instead of just a higher comfort level to take those chances
Sean Maloughney
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Edmonton
Joined: 09.26.2010

Apr 30 @ 11:34 PM ET
Larsson is a really good shut down man. Period. Totally inept in puck moving and
Offense.

And the Lightning are quickly gaining reputations this playoffs as whiny dirty female genitalias.

- Iggysbff

Everything in these statements are factual.
Iggysbff
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Peter Chiarelli is a fking moron, Calgary, AB
Joined: 07.12.2012

Apr 30 @ 11:37 PM ET
What makes him superior to those guys is that he's the anchor of a shutdown pairing. The argument could be made on Braun, but he doesn't seem to be the driver of shutdown results with Vlasic on his pairing. Dillon, Methot and Miller are or were the defensive presences on softer minute pairings (Burns, Karlsson and Krug), Hamonic has noticeably inferior results since taking on the shutdown role in New York and McNabb currently lacks the track record of shutdown success.

I think Larsson has the shutdown ability of Vlasic and is about where Vlasic was at the same age (low offensive output). Coincidentally, look at Vlasic being a prime example of a guy who improved his offensive instincts and results as he aged through his prime (https://www.nhl.com/playe...rc-edouard-vlasic-8471709). This isn't to say I think he WILL do so; merely a recognition and counter to a point you made.

My point is that even without any potential added offense, his abilities make him worth FAR more than the title of simply ordinary 2nd pairing shutdown guy.

- MaximumBone

Vlasic is a far superior skater. Larsson is a lumbering skater at best.
Vlasic can pass and breakout and skate through the nuetral zone. Larsson cannot.
Vlasic has puck handling and passing skills and can shoot. Larsson has poor mechanics, is all arms like a gorilla, and has a muffin shot.

To compare them is borderline criminal.
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Apr 30 @ 11:58 PM ET
The real crux is how truly effective is that shutdown pairing.
I mean one can say he might anchor it in that manner unlike some of the other guys, but it could be as much of an indication of the partner he has. and as mentioned, how successful said pairing is.

It’s almost like you’re penalizing the other guys for being the defensive presence on a More well rounded pairing because of the skill set of their partner. Not every team employs a pure shutdown pair. Or more importantly, necessarily even has to. But this isn’t an indication that said defensive conscience of pairing is inferior per se

As far as vlasic, those numbers were INterestkng to see. Just by eye I dont think he has the offensive instincts and passing skills that vlasic possesses, but ill
Admit I don’t really remember if those were nonexistent early on his career and developed as time went on instead of just a higher comfort level to take those chances

- HB77

As to the effectiveness of Larsson's shutdown pairing this year:

On-ice GF/GA: 48-48 (Klefbom playing lighter minutes had 44-57)
On-ice GF/GA sans Klefbom: 33-25
On-ice HDCA/60: 11.95 (Klefbom playing lighter minutes had 11.91)
On-ice HDGA/60: 1.41 (Klefbom playing lighter minutes had 1.61)
On-ice HD conversion rate: 11.7% (Klefbom had 13.5%)
GF% w/o Klefbom: 54.2% (so his time anchoring the shutdown pairing)

Does this provide sufficient evidence that his shutdown pairing is doing its job?

As far as the penalizing those players, it's more penalizing their shutdown ability because they're not exemplifying it under equally trying circumstances that Larsson is. Playing on a softer minutes pairing means they're getting the benefit of being given opportunities to score on lesser competition and in more advantageous positions (post-icing).

I wasn't nearly as able to watch and breakdown the play back during those early years of Vlasic's career so I'll concede I'm not as equipped to pursue that line of thought. Statistically speaking, it's certainly a match.
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Apr 30 @ 11:59 PM ET
It being part of system/relying on it as a safety net is one thing.
It being your default is something else totally.

Seks and klef will Always look to create transition, even if they don’t always and as u said, also rely on clearing in that manner. I mean every defender does.

But their skill set and ability are apples and oranges

- HB77

Who's to say that this isn't coached to be this way? It wouldn't be an abjectly poor choice for the coach to lean towards his Dmen giving the puck to the primary puckmover.

If something is coached to be your default, then it becomes your default under that coach. We have evidence that Larsson didn't lean this heavily towards those plays during his time in New Jersey. McLellan and Johnson (don't know who is more to blame) coaching his wingers to be too far up in the Dzone and the neutral zone leads to a Dman having FAR fewer options with which to pass to and gives opposition team's forechecks an easier job in limiting outlet options.

Watching the playoffs, you can see team's play a much more puck supportive breakout system which enables their less talented puck movers the chance to look much better at moving the puck. Passing is a simple, foundational skill that EVERY single NHL player has in spades. Breakout/stretch passing is a different story but those aren't needed to orchestrate a consistently successful breakout. See players like Miller, McQuaid, Coburn, hell even Emelin and Orpik and you can see them making short and effective passes on well-constructed breakouts.
HB77
Edmonton Oilers
Location: PC is a genius for drafting mcdavid
Joined: 02.20.2007

May 1 @ 12:30 AM ET
As to the effectiveness of Larsson's shutdown pairing this year:

On-ice GF/GA: 48-48 (Klefbom playing lighter minutes had 44-57)
On-ice GF/GA sans Klefbom: 33-25
On-ice HDCA/60: 11.95 (Klefbom playing lighter minutes had 11.91)
On-ice HDGA/60: 1.41 (Klefbom playing lighter minutes had 1.61)
On-ice HD conversion rate: 11.7% (Klefbom had 13.5%)
GF% w/o Klefbom: 54.2% (so his time anchoring the shutdown pairing)

Does this provide sufficient evidence that his shutdown pairing is doing its job?

As far as the penalizing those players, it's more penalizing their shutdown ability because they're not exemplifying it under equally trying circumstances that Larsson is. Playing on a softer minutes pairing means they're getting the benefit of being given opportunities to score on lesser competition and in more advantageous positions (post-icing).

I wasn't nearly as able to watch and breakdown the play back during those early years of Vlasic's career so I'll concede I'm not as equipped to pursue that line of thought. Statistically speaking, it's certainly a match.

- MaximumBone


What’s that player comparison website called again ?
Iggysbff
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Peter Chiarelli is a fking moron, Calgary, AB
Joined: 07.12.2012

May 1 @ 12:30 AM ET
As to the effectiveness of Larsson's shutdown pairing this year:

On-ice GF/GA: 48-48 (Klefbom playing lighter minutes had 44-57)
On-ice GF/GA sans Klefbom: 33-25
On-ice HDCA/60: 11.95 (Klefbom playing lighter minutes had 11.91)
On-ice HDGA/60: 1.41 (Klefbom playing lighter minutes had 1.61)
On-ice HD conversion rate: 11.7% (Klefbom had 13.5%)
GF% w/o Klefbom: 54.2% (so his time anchoring the shutdown pairing)

Does this provide sufficient evidence that his shutdown pairing is doing its job?

As far as the penalizing those players, it's more penalizing their shutdown ability because they're not exemplifying it under equally trying circumstances that Larsson is. Playing on a softer minutes pairing means they're getting the benefit of being given opportunities to score on lesser competition and in more advantageous positions (post-icing).

I wasn't nearly as able to watch and breakdown the play back during those early years of Vlasic's career so I'll concede I'm not as equipped to pursue that line of thought. Statistically speaking, it's certainly a match.

- MaximumBone


I haven't checked, but how much of his toi is with McDavid? Cuz we all know whoever is on with McDavid will have stats scewed in their favor. And obviously I mean 5 on 5 time because we all know he doesn't play pp with McDavid because well....we all know Larsson gets no pp time because he's inept offensively
HB77
Edmonton Oilers
Location: PC is a genius for drafting mcdavid
Joined: 02.20.2007

May 1 @ 12:40 AM ET
Who's to say that this isn't coached to be this way? It wouldn't be an abjectly poor choice for the coach to lean towards his Dmen giving the puck to the primary puckmover.

But that was my point.
It’s not sekera and klefboms default while it is for larsson. Are u implying this is just a coincidence?
.


If something is coached to be your default, then it becomes your default under that coach. We have evidence that Larsson didn't lean this heavily towards those plays during his time in New Jersey. McLellan and Johnson (don't know who is more to blame) coaching his wingers to be too far up in the Dzone and the neutral zone leads to a Dman having FAR fewer options with which to pass to and gives opposition team's forechecks an easier job in limiting outlet options.

Watching the playoffs, you can see team's play a much more puck supportive breakout system which enables their less talented puck movers the chance to look much better at moving the puck. Passing is a simple, foundational skill that EVERY single NHL player has in spades. Breakout/stretch passing is a different story but those aren't needed to orchestrate a consistently successful breakout. See players like Miller, McQuaid, Coburn, hell even Emelin and Orpik and you can see them making short and effective passes on well-constructed breakouts.

- MaximumBone


I mean passing may be a foundational skill, but making quick correct decisions and soft hands to deliver in tight spaces and without time certainly isnt a skill everyone possesses. At least not in anywhere close to the same level. And that difference in level can mean the difference in one who defaults to a dump to Center ice or a seam pass through potential trouble to a moving forward.

And again, are you implying that tmac is coaching his wingers to play a different style depending on which defenders are on the ice? Cause In a game of changes on the fly, that seems extremely unlikely for any team that doesn’t possess a Brent burns or Erik Karlsson. Of course they’re aware, but a total change in strategy is unlikely. Point is, even if it’s partly tmacs coaching strategy that impedes Larsson. the fact remains klef and sekera don’t default to that dump out. But larsson does.
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

May 1 @ 12:41 AM ET
I haven't checked, but how much of his toi is with McDavid? Cuz we all know whoever is on with McDavid will have stats scewed in their favor. And obviously I mean 5 on 5 time because we all know he doesn't play pp with McDavid because well....we all know Larsson gets no pp time because he's inept offensively
- Iggysbff

Near equal amounts of time spent on-ice with McDavid (~425 each).
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