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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: Impressions of, and questions concerning--D, Rasmus Ristolainen
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jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Apr 17 @ 4:26 PM ET
maybe they have a pretty good coach that played the cards he was dealt and got the most out of his team...

wonder where Bylsma is these days?

- Michael Pachla


No doubt, no doubt. Both GM and coach will probably win some hardware this year. But did any team have as much dead-dying-or-injured money as the sabres this year?

Between Bogo, Moulson, gorges, Pominville, there's like $19m for under 40 points. Throw in Okposo and you're paying $25m for fewer points than Kucherov scored by himself, by quite a bit.

No team can survive dedicating that much cap, to that little production. Now ror, Risto or Reinhart have to pay the price it seems
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Unpopular opinion (i think): The best Die Hard movie is the 4th one- Live free or Die Hard -jdfitz7, NY
Joined: 10.07.2010

Apr 17 @ 4:26 PM ET
his even strength scoring was comparable to 3rd liners and his zone entry numbers taken over a 13 game span were less than jordan freaking nolan.

mid 1st rounder, good prospect and decent roster player would in fact be a haul.

And yes im sure if we packaged picks and prospects with bogo and okposo we could move them. That kinda seems like backwards logic given where the team is at

- Sabresfan-365


Here's the thing though, 3rd liners don't score 55 points a year, and some of them even get a lot of PP time, yet still don't get there, you can't just throw out the PP because it's "only 20%" of the game.

You can say "well we played really great for 48 minutes, and scored a goal and allowed none, but not so well for 12 and allowed 4 but scored none, but (frank) it, we only need 80%, so we win!"
washedup20
Location: the little apple
Joined: 08.19.2014

Apr 17 @ 4:30 PM ET
Disco Dan is front of the line at Calgary, Pegula is helping him out, he is going to bring bogo and Okposo with him there.
hehateme
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 04.11.2017

Apr 17 @ 4:32 PM ET
maybe they have a pretty good coach that played the cards he was dealt and got the most out of his team...

wonder where Bylsma is these days?

- Michael Pachla


Do I detect a hint of Common sense here....
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Unpopular opinion (i think): The best Die Hard movie is the 4th one- Live free or Die Hard -jdfitz7, NY
Joined: 10.07.2010

Apr 17 @ 4:34 PM ET
He's a decent QB. I don't think he's great.

He was one of the most inaccurate deep passers last year.

- sbroads24


Who gives a (frank)? More than 80% of passes are less than 20 air yards.

Edit: No I wasn't doing a thing there.
BareMetal
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Buffalo, NY
Joined: 11.15.2017

Apr 17 @ 4:37 PM ET
Parise out weeks with a broken sternum.

Dude's in year 6 of a 13 year deal at age 33. Yikes.
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Unpopular opinion (i think): The best Die Hard movie is the 4th one- Live free or Die Hard -jdfitz7, NY
Joined: 10.07.2010

Apr 17 @ 4:37 PM ET
Yep. Mittelstadt makes doing this a lot easier too
- sbroads24


That's Chiarelli level thinking. "Well, we've got this guy who can step in, sure. Let's take a lottery ticket for him!"
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Unpopular opinion (i think): The best Die Hard movie is the 4th one- Live free or Die Hard -jdfitz7, NY
Joined: 10.07.2010

Apr 17 @ 4:41 PM ET
Brady doesn't have a strong arm
Peyton didn't have a strong arm

It's all about reading defenses and putting the ball where it needs to be when it needs to be there.

Marino, Elway, Farve had cannons but they knew how to use it!

- Stripes77


Allegedly used to keep a chart in his locker of WR's finger's he had broken. It was a long list.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Apr 17 @ 4:43 PM ET
What QBs in the league besides Brady has a high Football IQ that can make up for not having a strong arm ?
- gerbe75pts


Well, we can start with Brees if you like, and go on from there.
Slump Buster
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I root for draft picks but not the team, apparently, NY
Joined: 10.24.2006

Apr 17 @ 4:44 PM ET
Parise out weeks with a broken sternum.

Dude's in year 6 of a 13 year deal at age 33. Yikes.

- BareMetal


Thankfully we lost that sweepstakes. Suter is awesome but the two of them are going to be choking them in the not-too-distant future
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Apr 17 @ 4:45 PM ET
For fun...

just posted this on last page as new one was being posted;

I'm not sure Niku is ready....defensively for this series but anyone defending Chairot right now is clearly not watching!!!! I am not getting involved in this whole hate on for Rexy in here but I could play better defense in our zone than Myers/Chairot have thus far.

Myers has scored two nice goals, absolutely!! but his defensive and decision making play is horrendous

- Ross77

Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Apr 17 @ 4:51 PM ET
Here's the thing though, 3rd liners don't score 55 points a year, and some of them even get a lot of PP time, yet still don't get there, you can't just throw out the PP because it's "only 20%" of the game.

You can say "well we played really great for 48 minutes, and scored a goal and allowed none, but not so well for 12 and allowed 4 but scored none, but (frank) it, we only need 80%, so we win!"

- Wetbandit1


anywhere near ROR's time?

also that's a ridiculous example, no penalty kill is that bad for 82 games. equally as stupid as saying as long as our power play is clicking its okay if we suck at the game state where the majority of the game is played.

they had the #1 PP in the league when they were the 6th worst team in the NHL.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Apr 17 @ 4:58 PM ET
anywhere near ROR's time?

also that's a ridiculous example, no penalty kill is that bad for 82 games. equally as stupid as saying as long as our power play is clicking its okay if we suck at the game state where the majority of the game is played.

they had the #1 PP in the league when they were the 6th worst team in the NHL.

- Sabresfan-365


That top 15 pick that comes back for ROR, assuming that is the crux of the deal, had better be a tremendous pick, otherwise...
Fattony1187
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 02.12.2015

Apr 17 @ 5:00 PM ET
I would be pretty upset missing out on 2 franchise wingers but I can deal with TK or Wahlstrom
- gerbe75pts



If TK turns out as good as Matt, I will love the pick. Love his style of play. Even when he’s not scoring he’s doing something.
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Apr 17 @ 5:04 PM ET
That top 15 pick that comes back for ROR, assuming that is the crux of the deal, had better be a tremendous pick, otherwise...
- kingcong39



doesn't have to be. If the prospect included was guhle-like ceiling wise that'd be of value.
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Apr 17 @ 5:08 PM ET
That top 15 pick that comes back for ROR, assuming that is the crux of the deal, had better be a tremendous pick, otherwise...
- kingcong39



I've yet to hear why it's worth the risk. Reasons I've heard:

Shed salary: don't need the space right now, better options to move if you want to

Overpaid: most players areoverpaid on the second or 3rd contract, at least in the first few years. Karlsson will be overpaid. Why are we arguing over 2 mil, when we're wasting $20m elsewhere?

Only scores on the PP: 60 points

Gonna get a big return: not judging by he proposals here

He's an "old 27 year old": played 81 games

He's gonna lose a step: consistent every year

He quit this year: scored in the last 5 minutes of the last game

He was brought here to make us better: so was McDavid for the oilers

To move that for a chance to maybe - maybe - have something as good 3 years down the line is folly imo
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Apr 17 @ 5:08 PM ET
doesn't have to be. If the prospect included was guhle-like ceiling wise that'd be of value.
- Sabresfan-365


I guess I'm not just as high on the possible return as others are when it comes to ROR.

It's not that I think he is a bad player it all. It's his salary cap hit and how many teams are eager, not just willing, to absorb it at no money retained by Buffalo.

I say that because the Sabres have to stop having so much dead money on their roster. They have a ton, and that's not even including buyouts, compliance buyouts, etc.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Apr 17 @ 5:10 PM ET
I've yet to hear why it's worth the risk. Reasons I've heard:

Shed salary: don't need the space right now, better options to move if you want to

Overpaid: most players areoverpaid on the second or 3rd contract, at least in the first few years. Karlsson will be overpaid. Why are we arguing over 2 mil, when we're wasting $20m elsewhere?

Only scores on the PP: 60 points

Gonna get a big return: not judging by he proposals here

He's an "old 27 year old": played 81 games

He's gonna lose a step: consistent every year

He quit this year: scored in the last 5 minutes of the last game

He was brought here to make us better: so was McDavid for the oilers

To move that for a chance to maybe - maybe - have something as good 3 years down the line is folly imo

- jcragcrumple


If they can get a true quality return, you have to consider and probably do trade him.

I'm not sure the level of quality lines up, and what it seems like some of the prevailing wisdom is Patriots like, meaning trade an asset a year early rather than a year late, which I get, but it's tough to take right now after so very many horrible seasons.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Apr 17 @ 5:12 PM ET
doesn't have to be. If the prospect included was guhle-like ceiling wise that'd be of value.
- Sabresfan-365


Using that example, what do we think Guhle's absolute ceiling is, and then what is his likely ceiling?

Is it a max of a number 2 with more likely a number 3?

If so, what else would need to come back for ROR in addition to that kind of player (2nd pairing stalwart or high quality 2nd player)?

Is that kind of player enough by itself?

If it is, that deal seems just as much about dumping the cap hit as it does making the trade to get better.
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Apr 17 @ 5:12 PM ET
If they can get a true quality return, you have to consider and probably do trade him.

I'm not sure the level of quality lines up, and what it seems like some of the prevailing wisdom is Patriots like, meaning trade an asset a year early rather than a year late, which I get, but it's tough to take right now after so very many horrible seasons.

- kingcong39


Definitely. I don't see a mid-first and a prospect as worthy value though. That's a lottery ticket and we already have a sure thing
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Apr 17 @ 5:26 PM ET
Definitely. I don't see a mid-first and a prospect as worthy value though. That's a lottery ticket and we already have a sure thing
- jcragcrumple



this is all relative. What im sure of what he is and what your sure of are two completely different things. That's ultimately what matters here for Botts
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Apr 17 @ 5:29 PM ET
this is all relative. What im sure of what he is and what your sure of are two completely different things. That's ultimately what matters here for Botts
- Sabresfan-365


I'm sure of 55-60p with fewer than 8 pims and 20 goals. We traded gaustad for a mid first and thought we stole that trade. The best player in that trade was in goal for the preds last night
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Apr 17 @ 5:33 PM ET
this is all relative. What im sure of what he is and what your sure of are two completely different things. That's ultimately what matters here for Botts
- Sabresfan-365


Isn't it also fair to say that, for those who say a pick in the 10-15 range is fair value, that there is an assumption that the player picked will be at least as big an impact player, if not more, than ROR?

The examples given a few times sure seem to confirm that.

If the best thing they get in the deal is a pick between 10-15, and that player does not turn out to be anything special, they are screwed.

I say that understanding the 'cap savings' aspect, but how many players signed with cap space are actually either worth the contract or exceed their contract?

Now, if only GM's would attack RFA's, then we would have an entirely different story regarding cap space usage.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Apr 17 @ 5:38 PM ET
365 put it well in the last thread: they're all 2nd-3rd line guys. No huge stars on big contracts (maybe marchessault soon though), but they didn't spend 20+ million on Bogo, moulson, gorges and Pominville this year either.
- jcragcrumple

Marchessault was a 1st line producer last year in Florida, and It looks like Karlsson, while maybe not a perrenial 40 goal guy, is also a legit top liner.

I agree with 365, but it's not like they're best player is Sam Reinhart or something
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Apr 17 @ 5:40 PM ET
Isn't it also fair to say that, for those who say a pick in the 10-15 range is fair value, that there is an assumption that the player picked will be at least as big an impact player, if not more, than ROR?

The examples given a few times sure seem to confirm that.

If the best thing they get in the deal is a pick between 10-15, and that player does not turn out to be anything special, they are screwed.

I say that understanding the 'cap savings' aspect, but how many players signed with cap space are actually either worth the contract or exceed their contract?

Now, if only GM's would attack RFA's, then we would have an entirely different story regarding cap space usage.

- kingcong39

Disagree here, mailnly because I don't think Ryan O'Reilly is anywhere near good enough to be considered irreplacable
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