Justin Lowe: Fact: It's Hard to Win a Stanley Cup Do the Leafs remind you of a young Blackhawks when they were on the verge of turning into an annual Stanley Cup contender 10 years ago?

I examine these teams, as well as provide a preview/tidbits for tonight's game.

Great insights, as always.

I'm really curious what the lines will be for the Blackhawks' next Stanley Cup winning team, and when that will be, and if any of the current players will be on that team.

I don't see anyone being willing to take on the contracts of Toews, Keith, or Seabrook until they consistently show that they've regained some of what they seem to have lost over the past three seasons. Of course, if they did play at a higher level, they might be worth keeping.

I want at least one more season after this one with Q at the helm and 2, 7, 19, 88, 20, and 50 on the team. I want big comebacks for the guys who have been underperforming. I want Stan to add some top veterans - top six forwards, top four defenders - who are in their prime. I want the youngsters to raise their game to a higher level. I want some solid, hungry, veteran role players on the bottom six. I want Crawford fully recovered. I want to see if they can get the magic back. If they can, then keep it going beyond next season. If they can't, blow it up and begin again.

Holy poop I completely forgot about Cam Barker. He was originally supposed to be better then Seabrook was he not or am I just remembering wrong ?

Barker = deer see headlights
Was he another great pick by Tallon? Imagine if Tallon had not picked some Russians, Skille. Who drafted Adam Bennett and Sanipass. Blackhawks could have been so much better without those poor selections

Help me understand this: Bergevin has a good hockey purveyor of talent under his wing in R Dudley. Yet their drafting has been average, overall. NHL moves = a lot like Bowman. Good and bAD

Holy poop I completely forgot about Cam Barker. He was originally supposed to be better then Seabrook was he not or am I just remembering wrong ?
- blizzzard

He was drafted 3rd overall in 2004. Indeed he was supposed to be a top 2 guy. Didn't realize but he's still playing, he's found a home in the KHL: http://www.eliteprospects...om/player.php?player=9198

How about be honest & admit he has yet again made more mistakes & the team needs a rebuild

Nah he won't admit to this team failing

Or to the contracts he has handed out

Starting with the Bickell deal
- Goalie-33

For the sake of honesty, try giving credit where credit's due. Stan didn't panic and trade away Core players after '11 or '12, but identified them and filled out the rest of the team through the draft, trades and FA iced a fulll team that won two more Cups.

I have no prob acknowledging he's made mistakes upon the way and have said that it's likley time to investigate what some of the Core players might bring back.

Also, again, how is Stan different from any other GM in any other sport in that he hasn't held a press conference to fess up to his mistakes.

You can go back to being angry now.

Justin, I guess as the season unfolds following what transpires off the ice is as important as what happens on the ice and like you I'm neutral as far as Q and agree there comes a time to replace him. Is he the right guy for this team at this stage of "transition"?

Guess we'll have to see the results of the season but today it seems hard to imagine that both Q and StanBow will be back. ...... A fan needs Rocky to stand up and make the right calls.

For the sake of honesty, try giving credit where credit's due. Stan didn't panic and trade away Core players after '11 or '12, but identified them and filled out the rest of the team through the draft, trades and FA iced a fulll team that won two more Cups.

I have no prob acknowledging he's made mistakes upon the way and have said that it's likley time to investigate what some of the Core players might bring back.

Also, again, how is Stan different from any other GM in any other sport in that he hasn't held a press conference to fess up to his mistakes.

You can go back to being angry now.
- HawkintheD

Agree, StanBow identified the core and wrapped them up and it led to two more cups. IMO he was spot on in that regard but a core isn't a forever thing it's an evolving thing. IMO he made the right moves with Hammer and Panarin as these guys would be lost for nothing instead he got something useful for them as opposed to losing them for nothing like the Leddy and Sharp deals. ....Everyone screamed when Crow was given 6 mil per but that ends up being a great move.

And I'll admit that when Kane and Toews were signed it was the Kane contract that worried me most. Kid was immature and his 2 way game was weak despite top 5 hands/vision in the world. Still think 10.5 for both at the time was an overpay.

Regardless the organIzation is saddled with 5-6 guys eating 50% of the cap and two of them are near being passengers. .......... It's a tough situation and wonder if some new eyes from outside the Hawk bubble, be it a GM, coach or both, would be best to "fix" what anchors this club?

Justin Lowe: Fact: It's Hard to Win a Stanley Cup
Do the Leafs remind you of a young Blackhawks when they were on the verge of turning into an annual Stanley Cup contender 10 years ago?

- Justin Lowe

Well Justin, you are correct about the chatter surrounding the Maple Leafs and the 'expectation' of them becoming a true Cup contender. In reading your post, it sounds like you either believe the local media hype or want to, which is really not a bad thing I guess. But I watch that team a lot, and IMO they are a long way from achieving 1X what the Hawks pulled off 3X. Let's go on the basis of what I've seen this season:

1) Without Frederick Anderson in goal this year, this team has nowhere close to the # of standings points they have now. He is their MVP easily. He is doing for the Leafs what Crawford has done for the Hawks these past few seasons - mask some very ugly acne on the rest of the squad.

2) Leafs are in by far the weakest division of the NHL - 2 very good teams in Tampa and Boston, then a decent team in the Leafs followed by some abominably horrible squads like Buffalo, Montreal, Ottawa. With a schedule skewed to playing those teams more often, the standings points make the Buds look better than they are. Put them in the Central or Metro, they are totally life and death to make the playoffs. Move the Hawks or Penguins into the Atlantic, either one qualifies easily just like the Leafs are doing.

3) They have a stud in Auston Mathews. He's going to get Connor McDavid money after next season. I don't think its a big deal but things will change a bit when the money has to be re-allocated to accommodate him, Nylander and maybe Marner. A couple of guys will have to be sacrificed - maybe JVR but there's no great loss in dumping the likes of Jake Gardiner or Bozak. So far,the Leafs have managed their contracts and cap budget much better than Stanbo & Co. have.

4) You touched on it - no Stanley Cup for the Leafs with that defence group. There's no stud there. Morgan Rielly is very good but not great. Gardiner, Polak, Borgman, Hainsey just won't make it happen. Very difficult to make that group better without giving up young assets in trade.

So I've got a trade for you to consider Justin - Duncan Keith to Toronto for Timothy Liljegren, Kasperi Kaponen and your #1 pick in this year's draft. You know Coach Babcock would be all over that one and get Dunc's attitude re-adjusted and get him back on track. With him on the roster playing 26 minutes a night, now your Maple Leafs are a contender this year without removing a current roster player.

Should be a good game tonight assuming the Hawks haven't chosen to attend a pity party for themselves.

Someone should actually grade each GM each season. Checkmark for good moves. Minus sign for gamble and lost, or bad judgement. See how many GM had 100%. Btw how many GM would have identified and kept each of the core. Bowman has made some good and some bad moves, ok. He had better get more physical players.

What is so hard to understand about his job performance. It is right there on paper to ascertain. Quit saying he was great or terrible. Call it like it is. Unless you are short sighted and hold a grudge with him

Just woke up from a great nights sleep, is Q still coach or is it time to go back to bed?

So I've got a trade for you to consider Justin - Duncan Keith to Toronto for Timothy Liljegren, Kasperi Kaponen and your #1 pick in this year's draft. You know Coach Babcock would be all over that one and get Dunc's attitude re-adjusted and get him back on track. With him on the roster playing 26 minutes a night, now your Maple Leafs are a contender this year without removing a current roster player.


- RickJ

IMO Keith could possibly make the difference for the Leafs at a better than fair cap hit. This is the kind of deal I'd love to see the Hawks pull off. ....... In the back of my mind I hope that, and I know the numbers may never work, that if a team wants Keith they have to take Seabrook too in some fashion realizing the Hawks will have to retain some salary.

Here is 1 flaw I wish Q would correct:

For a few seasons now the PP has been terrible, so I wish he would just tell the guys it is ok to retaliate in situations where you may cancel the PP, ie the Malkin play. Someone should have jumped Malkin and punched him in the face multiple times. Who gives a crap that you nullify the 2 min man advantage. Players are quitting on Q because they are going out there and risking thier careers because Q wants them to play a gentleman's game, when the NHL has become a dirty game.

IMO Keith could possibly make the difference for the Leafs at a better than fair cap hit. This is the kind of deal I'd love to see the Hawks pull off. ....... In the back of my mind I hope that, and I know the numbers may never work, that if a team wants Keith they have to take Seabrook too in some fashion realizing the Hawks will have to retain some salary.
- Mr Ricochet

Mr.R, #2 is the absolute best trade chip the Hawks have to acquire multiple very good, young players on ELC's. Moving him results in a huge hole on D and leaves those 2 brain surgeons Kempny and Gustaffson on the roster as temporary replacements - but that's only until end of this season. If Keith agreed to go and you move him, drive a very hard bargain to whoever wants him. Unfortunately, insisting that Seabs be part of the deal would kill any interest because even if the Hawks ate 50% of #7's salary that makes it a $9M / year total salary bite for both guys to the acquiring team.

Agree, StanBow identified the core and wrapped them up and it led to two more cups. IMO he was spot on in that regard but a core isn't a forever thing it's an evolving thing. IMO he made the right moves with Hammer and Panarin as these guys would be lost for nothing instead he got something useful for them as opposed to losing them for nothing like the Leddy and Sharp deals. ....Everyone screamed when Crow was given 6 mil per but that ends up being a great move.

And I'll admit that when Kane and Toews were signed it was the Kane contract that worried me most. Kid was immature and his 2 way game was weak despite top 5 hands/vision in the world. Still think 10.5 for both at the time was an overpay.

Regardless the organIzation is saddled with 5-6 guys eating 50% of the cap and two of them are near being passengers. .......... It's a tough situation and wonder if some new eyes from outside the Hawk bubble, be it a GM, coach or both, would be best to "fix" what anchors this club?
- Mr Ricochet

Definitely not a forever thing but I figured they had at least a few more (maybe as many as 5) kicks at the can after 2015, while the Core was still together. I’m sure Stan did too and as much as people can say they hated one contract or another, it was the price of winning.

Kane and Toews signed those two deals after 2 Cups were won. Like you said Crow’s deal which was complained about constantly now looks like one of the best.

I think at the end of the season they should at the least part ways with Q. He’s a great coach but they all have a shelf life and as the team becomes whatever it’s next iteration is I think it will require a different guiding hand.

A team like the hawks should score on 20% of PP, so if we draw on AVG 2 extra PP a game That would be a extra goal over the other team every 2.5 games. figuring over the course of a season that should account for maybe an Extra 10-15 pts over the course of the year. Retaliation penalilties are for bad hockey teams. Have guys that will clean his clock and a good clean legal hit is way bigger then some farce of a fight were to men hug and fall on the ground.

Keith to Toronto could be interesting? they are heavy on Forwards. Keith looks to be a player that can play top line minutes (NO PP) the next 3 years at just over 5 mil is fine.

Mr.R, #2 is the absolute best trade chip the Hawks have to acquire multiple very good, young players on ELC's. Moving him results in a huge hole on D and leaves those 2 brain surgeons Kempny and Gustaffson on the roster as temporary replacements - but that's only until end of this season. If Keith agreed to go and you move him, drive a very hard bargain to whoever wants him. Unfortunately, insisting that Seabs be part of the deal would kill any interest because even if the Hawks ate 50% of #7's salary that makes it a $9M / year total salary bite for both guys to the acquiring team.
- RickJ

I think if it was the direction they decided, Kane would be their absolute best trade chip followed closely by Keith; but I like what you’ve suggested in terms of Keith and it’s the type of deal Stan should be investigating.

Also agree that cro-barring Seabs into that trade would diminish Keith’s value. I like Seabs and wish he was still playing at a higher level, but I think he’s here til the bitter end.

RickJ.....your logic in point #2 is flawed. Leafs have only played the division bottom-dwellers 8 times so far and are only 4-3-1 against them, and have a combined 2-1 record against the Bruins and Bolts. No way is their record inflated at this point because of a weak division.

Mr.R, #2 is the absolute best trade chip the Hawks have to acquire multiple very good, young players on ELC's. Moving him results in a huge hole on D and leaves those 2 brain surgeons Kempny and Gustaffson on the roster as temporary replacements - but that's only until end of this season. If Keith agreed to go and you move him, drive a very hard bargain to whoever wants him. Unfortunately, insisting that Seabs be part of the deal would kill any interest because even if the Hawks ate 50% of #7's salary that makes it a $9M / year total salary bite for both guys to the acquiring team.
- RickJ

I guess nothing can or will happen until the Hawks decide this yr is gone, they won't make the playoffs. IF that happens do they have the balls to move Keith and if so who, and how many, makes that decision. ........ To me that's the biggest problem right now, who, and how many, are calling the shots.

Agreed, moving Seabs and Keith to the same team is moving 13ish mil in salary without any salary retained and no team competing for a cup can fit that under the cap. Just wondering out loud if some creative maneuvering is a possibility, a 3rd team maybe?

But a scenario you lay out with TOR makes sense for both sides. Whether it be the Leafs or not it is reasonable for both clubs and therefore seemingly a possibility. My guess is most players in the league would want to play in Toronto regardless then add the young talent and Babcock and it's as a good a place to be for a hockey player as any.

Justin another nice write up. A couple of things: I ve stated that I don't think bowman is a very good gm and the cons have out weigh the pros in time as a gm. I do like and will give him credit for the direction in which the team is going retool on the fly get younger and faster. The two trades in the offseason did pan out yet so another check mark against bowman cons column. Drafting has not very good also in the last 8-9 years only 3 top six talent smaltz dcat and sad no goaltending depth or goalie right now that could be a number 1 in the future no top 3 d man to replace seabrook or kieth in the system. My point is I don't think bowman the best gm to undertake the next steps to make this team a contender again. Any prospects updates in Europe Canada or the U.S., any free agents in Europe or collage that the hawks are looking at to sign besides skiura.

Definitely not a forever thing but I figured they had at least a few more (maybe as many as 5) kicks at the can after 2015, while the Core was still together. I’m sure Stan did too and as much as people can say they hated one contract or another, it was the price of winning.

Kane and Toews signed those two deals after 2 Cups were won. Like you said Crow’s deal which was complained about constantly now looks like one of the best.

I think at the end of the season they should at the least part ways with Q. He’s a great coach but they all have a shelf life and as the team becomes whatever it’s next iteration is I think it will require a different guiding hand.
- HawkintheD

Yep, you get a reasonable shot at a cup you take it. And as mentioned if you score each GM for their moves you'll have winners and losers for every one of them. Fans of their own teams too often are in a bubble in that regard. ...... But every manager has strengths and weaknesses and some are better at acquiring talent, identifying talent, trades, working a cap or maintaining a core. Where is your particular organIzation in it's process and who best to strengthen what is missing from a managerial standpoint.

But it seems managing a cap is job #1 with a cap that stays near flat. You simply can't have misses like the Seabrook contract especially with a Toews who under performs his salary by such a wide margin.

I have no answers and don't think the Hawks do either. My hope is they have the right questions which is the first step to understanding the problems and solving them..... The Hawks have had the same decision makers, whoever they are, for 7-8 yrs. I wonder if some fresh eyes on old problems can't do anything but help. Some eyes from outside the 7-8 yr Hawk bubble.

Yep, you get a reasonable shot at a cup you take it. And as mentioned if you score each GM for their moves you'll have winners and losers for every one of them. Fans of their own teams too often are in a bubble in that regard. ...... But every manager has strengths and weaknesses and some are better at acquiring talent, identifying talent, trades, working a cap or maintaining a core. Where is your particular organIzation in it's process and who best to strengthen what is missing from a managerial standpoint.

But it seems managing a cap is job #1 with a cap that stays near flat. You simply can't have misses like the Seabrook contract especially with a Toews who under performs his salary by such a wide margin.

I have no answers and don't think the Hawks do either. My hope is they have the right questions which is the first step to understanding the problems and solving them..... The Hawks have had the same decision makers, whoever they are, for 7-8 yrs. I wonder if some fresh eyes on old problems can't do anything but help. Some eyes from outside the 7-8 yr Hawk bubble.
- Mr Ricochet

Great points on a gm is wirtz&mcdoung so in love with the bowmans that it blinds them from making objective and rational decisions. No gm is perfect and bowman isn't the worst gm either in the NHL but in the last 2 1/2 years he has made really bad decisions on shaping this team seabrook contract is the biggest mistake not trading him after the 15th cup was a mistake that was in my opinion the time to start changing over the core. Coach Q also is set in his ways as a coach old school mentality play vets over rookies or young players sit young players when they make mistake but not the vets I know its about sending messages but it has to equal in my mind. Take Kieth off the pp reduce his minutes and probably be fresher it work in boston with chara took him off the pp reduced his minutes to about 19-20 minutes a game looks like a top 4dman again. Let kane run the pp not dineen and see what happens it can't get any worse.

RickJ.....your logic in point #2 is flawed. Leafs have only played the division bottom-dwellers 8 times so far and are only 4-3-1 against them, and have a combined 2-1 record against the Bruins and Bolts. No way is their record inflated at this point because of a weak division.
- bullethead7

Good point. What do they play - 28 games within their division? Whatever it is the Leafs should wind up with plenty of standings points and no stress to make the playoffs as a result of a weak division grouping. But will have to go thru Boston and Tampa (or if somebody in the Metro knocked off Tampa in the 1st round) in the playoffs. Don't like their chances with that defence.

Question to all - Do we know if Stan Bowman acted alone in negotiations with Seabs camp, or did McD have some input also? I do not know if we can only put that signing on Stan's shoulders. Until I hear otherwise, I believe McD has input on all things Blackhawks.

I think if it was the direction they decided, Kane would be their absolute best trade chip followed closely by Keith; but I like what you’ve suggested in terms of Keith and it’s the type of deal Stan should be investigating.

Also agree that cro-barring Seabs into that trade would diminish Keith’s value. I like Seabs and wish he was still playing at a higher level, but I think he’s here til the bitter end.
- HawkintheD

The problem with trading Patrick Kane is the salary a team would have to absorb and fit in. Buffalo would do it but what do they have to give back other than their #1 pick which would be great but the rest of the team is junk? And Kane might not waive to go home.

Going to the game tomorrow? I'm thinking of driving down to see the new arena. Secondary market tix look reasonable.