I many times find myself agreeing with Tanner. However, he gets caught up in a fallacy here. Kadri and Johansen had the same point totals in 2016-2017, but Johansen had the better stats across the board. (And Johansen played a higher percentage of his minutes against the top lines of his opponents than Kadri did).
But that's not the real issue. Of course, Kadri at $4.5MM is a better deal on paper than Johansen at $8MM. But that's a false choice. The Predators didn't have a shot at Kadri for $4.5MM. So, you can't fairly make that comparison. The Preds were faced with a choice to re-sign Johansen (and perhaps overpay by $1MM per year). Or, if they lose him to a better RFA offer, who is available on the open market to step into a #1C role on a cup contender? Sure they would get compensatory picks, but those wouldn't do the Preds any good for 3-4 years at least.
The Preds made up for the overpayment by extending the term and not having a no trade clause. In 5-6 years, $8MM for a #1 center is going to be a bargain. Further, the Preds locked up their entire first line for 5 more years at $18MM per year. All of them are 25 or younger. They scored 180 points combined this past season. The worst contract Poile has right now is Rinne for $7MM. But he's only got two seasons left at that number. In fact, other than Rinne, he doesn't have a single player over 29 signed past this upcoming season. That is a recipe for avoiding salary cap jail.
If you look at the top paid RW, LW, C combinations in the league. There are certainly a handful that are better than the Preds top 3. But they cost quite a bit more too. I mean, Benn/Spezza/Radulov looks like a pretty scary combo in Dallas, but they aren't that young, and the cap hit is $23MM. The Capitals, Blackhawks, Kings & Ducks are in a similar boat. Older guys - good ones sure. But they are more expensive and signed long term.
The Islanders, Oilers & Leafs have similar situations to the Preds in terms of good, young first lines without totally breaking the bank. But none of those teams are in near as good of shape as the Preds long term. They have lots of young talent they are going to have to pay in the next year or two. Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, Strome & others. Plus, each of those teams have several UFA's they are going to have to likely overpay to keep or replace.
Poile has left himself room under the cap to do what he needs in order to either find a long-term goaltender (if Saros isn't the guy), lock up Ellis long-term & get a good piece here and there in the FA or Trade market. His top 2 forward lines & top 2 defensive pairs are signed for multiple years at a cap hit of just over $45MM. So, in context, its hard to say Poile "overpaid" for Johansen. |