I personally don't care what Phil does in the regular season. If he continues to average close to a point per game in the playoffs, he is valuable.
- cap1681

I don't see any way we move Kessel in the next couple of years. I kind of feel he'll decline a bit, but hopefully we have some kids that will pick up the slack. I thought most people knew when we got him that his contract will out-live his usefulness. I also think there's a good chance he'll be a 3 or 4 time cup champ when his contract ends.

How about pushing for the three-peat with even more offence

Jvr and bozak for Shultz

Gietzal-Crosby-hornquvist
Haglin-malkin-rust
Jvr-bozak-Kessel
Sheary-Wilson-reaves
- BrainSap

WTF is this sh!t

EA Hockey trade idea you have. Great in Theory. Impossible to execute.
- sditulli

I didn't propose any trade and there is no such thing as an impossible trade as long as it works under the cap. It does take an open mind, though.

I don't think there's a team out there that can absorb his cap hit, that is a contender, that would be willing to give up something of real value to Pitt. In my mind, it only makes sense in a multiplayer swap where we alleviate ourselves of Maatta as well. A team that comes to mind is Anaheim with the option of them sending a D man. Maybe LA would send Muzzin our way (doubtful) but most realistically (imo) would be centered around Kessel for Trouba. But I don't think any of these moves get us closer to a cup. We can give Maatta less minutes now that we have Hunwick and a healthy Letang - the smart play is to lock up a solid 3C for a few years (I think the Bozak idea is indeed a good one, especially considering the other options are being snatched up and GMJR hasn't signed any insurance for the position)
- WSCTeton17

I think a team like Nashville who has an utter lack of wingers but has an abundance of quality defensemen. I think there could be a trade involving Ekholm, Josi, or Ellis that would benefit both teams.

I'm sure there are other winger-lacking teams with abundant defensemen. D > W just like C > W.

Phils passing was always elite even in TO.

His defensive game is better in Pittsburgh and that's partially due to a better team, but in reality it's due to Phil Kessel's personality.

When Phil is scoring and the team is winning he does many other hockey things very well. When things aren't going his way he slacks off. In Toronto there were many times things weren't going well for Phil/Leafs. When the Leafs were good that one year and they made the playoffs he was a beast in the playoffs. I even seen him push a guy off the puck in the corner. It was awesome. I tried to call my old man to tell him about it but the phone line was busy because my dad was trying to call me. "Holy poop you see Phil pushing people around out there?"

I think he'll be top talent in Pittsburgh for a long time, and to whichever guy posted about his cap hit, it's only 6.8mil. That's a bargain.

29 year old forward coming off an outstanding postseason and a great regular season despite playing 30% of the time with Bonino even though the line wasn't working?

Gotta trot out the aging curve!

38 year old center coming off one of his worst seasons where he had the same number of goals as Ryan Reaves and coming off knee surgery?

Screw the aging curve, let's sign him for $6mil and eschew all other needs!

Phil is not declining, he's going nowhere, and he's still going to be a fine value in three or four years.

29 year old forward coming off an outstanding postseason and a great regular season despite playing 30% of the time with Bonino even though the line wasn't working?

Gotta trot out the aging curve!

38 year old center coming off one of his worst seasons where he had the same number of goals as Ryan Reaves and coming off knee surgery?

Screw the aging curve, let's sign him for $6mil and eschew all other needs!

Phil is not declining, he's going nowhere, and he's still going to be a fine value in three or four years.
- hardnosed

Until you have a chart or graph no one will ever believe your crazy theory

29 year old forward coming off an outstanding postseason and a great regular season despite playing 30% of the time with Bonino even though the line wasn't working?

Gotta trot out the aging curve!

38 year old center coming off one of his worst seasons where he had the same number of goals as Ryan Reaves and coming off knee surgery?

Screw the aging curve, let's sign him for $6mil and eschew all other needs!

Phil is not declining, he's going nowhere, and he's still going to be a fine value in three or four years.
- hardnosed

This is great

29 year old forward coming off an outstanding postseason and a great regular season despite playing 30% of the time with Bonino even though the line wasn't working?

Gotta trot out the aging curve!

38 year old center coming off one of his worst seasons where he had the same number of goals as Ryan Reaves and coming off knee surgery?

Screw the aging curve, let's sign him for $6mil and eschew all other needs!

Phil is not declining, he's going nowhere, and he's still going to be a fine value in three or four years.
- hardnosed

Well said, analytical graphs really have destroyed peoples "eye test" perceptions. It is funny that teams that went heavy on analytics are already backing off them and realizing that all graphs and charts do is stereo type a player without seeing the intangibles of said player....in other words most of it is just a "fad" and an already dying one at that.

Well said, analytical graphs really have destroyed peoples "eye test" perceptions. It is funny that teams that went heavy on analytics are already backing off them and realizing that all graphs and charts do is stereo type a player without seeing the intangibles of said player....in other words most of it is just a "fad" and an already dying one at that.
- Darklight11

Data is great. The problem is that those trying to interpret it do an awful job of it. There's two ways it happens:

1. The stats-head, instead of starting with a hypothesis, collecting data and then reaching a conclusion starts with a conclusion and then goes searching for data that will confirm what they already believe or in some cases want to believe. We've seen this with various scapegoats through the years.

2. The stats-head goes searching for numbers without actually knowing anything about the player or barely seeing him play. So their numbers game has no anchor in reality and the numbers can't be vetted because of a lack of familiarity with the player.

Examples on this blog would be the love of Daniel Winnik and moreso the touting of Mark Arcobello as not only a legit NHLer, but as a third line center possibility a couple years back based solely on advanced stats and a 10 game cup of tea with the Penguins. For Tanner, it's David Rundblad. Arcobello and Rundblad are or course playing overseas these days.

But then of course, that isn't because the numbers were skewed and/or misinterpreted - it's because the NHL is a good-old-boy network where guys who have lived hockey all their life should be kicked to the curb in favor of math majors.

Data is great. The problem is that those trying to interpret it do an awful job of it. There's two ways it happens:

1. The stats-head, instead of starting with a hypothesis, collecting data and then reaching a conclusion starts with a conclusion and then goes searching for data that will confirm what they already believe or in some cases want to believe. We've seen this with various scapegoats through the years.

2. The stats-head goes searching for numbers without actually knowing anything about the player or barely seeing him play. So their numbers game has no anchor in reality and the numbers can't be vetted because of a lack of familiarity with the player.

Examples on this blog would be the love of Daniel Winnik and moreso the touting of Mark Arcobello as not only a legit NHLer, but as a third line center possibility a couple years back based solely on advanced stats and a 10 game cup of tea with the Penguins. For Tanner, it's David Rundblad. Arcobello and Rundblad are or course playing overseas these days.

But then of course, that isn't because the numbers were skewed and/or misinterpreted - it's because the NHL is a good-old-boy network where guys who have lived hockey all their life should be kicked to the curb in favor of math majors.
- hardnosed

Good post !!!!!!

Well said, analytical graphs really have destroyed peoples "eye test" perceptions. It is funny that teams that went heavy on analytics are already backing off them and realizing that all graphs and charts do is stereo type a player without seeing the intangibles of said player....in other words most of it is just a "fad" and an already dying one at that.
- Darklight11

Just a fad? Immediately after hiring Stat Sam (one of the most respected analytics guys from hockey) from War-On-Ice (an analytics website) the Penguins won back to back cups.



So yeah, it's just a fad, and already dying out.

Just a fad? Immediately after hiring Stat Sam (one of the most respected analytics guys from hockey) from War-On-Ice (an analytics website) the Penguins won back to back cups.



So yeah, it's just a fad, and already dying out.
- j.boyd919

Playing Devil's Advocate for a moment. The Pens lost most of the analytics battles the playoffs in pretty much every series, did they not?

Playing Devil's Advocate for a moment. The Pens lost most of the analytics battles the playoffs in pretty much every series, did they not?
- Rinosaur

This playoffs? More often than not they did. They lost the corsi battles most of the games. But the scoring chance/high danger chances were closer. I think the Washington series was the most lopsided one. Fleury outplaying Holtby was huge. But I think in the CBJ, OTT, and NSH series... The analytics battles were closer. And when they're closer like that... The Pens skilled forwards and finishing ability edged the other teams.

Playing Devil's Advocate for a moment. The Pens lost most of the analytics battles the playoffs in pretty much every series, did they not?
- Rinosaur

Yep, and they repeatedly have made moves that the stats-heads said were awful because of analytical reasons.

Do you think Rutherford asked Ventura whether he should trade for Hainsey and his 46.7% Corsi over the last three years? Nope. And it's not like Ventura went to Sullivan in the playoffs and was like, "hey coach, this Hainsey guy's numbers are awful you should bench him." And Sullivan wasn't like "gee, you're right math guy. I'll bench him."

Point is, these stats hire are good PR that a certain segment of the fanbase and blogosphere gobbles up. The reality is that they're not having any kind of impact on the moves made by teams.

(And then of course I'm sure Dubas signed off on Hainsey and his amazing advanced stats getting three years from Toronto.)

ARE YOU NUTS?

ARE YOU NUTS?
- allaboutpens

Probably

ARE YOU NUTS?
- allaboutpens

I'm nuts about the Pens!

Just a fad? Immediately after hiring Stat Sam (one of the most respected analytics guys from hockey) from War-On-Ice (an analytics website) the Penguins won back to back cups.



So yeah, it's just a fad, and already dying out.
- j.boyd919

you don't think it has something to do with them hiring a capable coach for once?

you don't think it has something to do with them hiring a capable coach for once?
- martox

nah, stats guy was more important than Sully.

Just a fad? Immediately after hiring Stat Sam (one of the most respected analytics guys from hockey) from War-On-Ice (an analytics website) the Penguins won back to back cups.



So yeah, it's just a fad, and already dying out.
- j.boyd919

lol, and then they sign ryan reaves whose analytics look like moldy poop

lol, and then they sign ryan reaves whose analytics look like moldy poop
- rbaurle51

and they signed hainsey and they signed hunwick. oh and they signed AND resigned tom sestito.

and they signed hainsey and they signed hunwick. oh and they signed AND resigned tom sestito.
- martox

I'm sure the team uses analytics sometimes and other times they go with their gut. I really think when they brought in cullen that was an analytics signing. There's just much more else to a player than the numbers and sometimes it pays off and more often than not it really doesn't. Numbers don't lie, but they don't paint the entire picture.

IMO there has to be a balance of analytical and eye-test thinking, coupled with level-headed cap/team management.

I'll give RW credit for clearly stating he shouldn't be traded now (or ever maybe). However concluding through a few charts that his incredibly minuscule decline is due to age is both stupid and careless. Regardless of year-to-year statistics, everyone continually gets worse after their prime. Didn't need a chart for that. A decline in statistics can be tied to so many other variables though, as mentioned on this board. The gong show that was the Maple Leafs and 1st pairing matchups in TOR, better quality of teammate in PIT when playing with Sid/Geno (dishing more), worse quality of teammate in PIT when playing on a 16-17 HBK, better team in general (not being the guy) - see KD and MIA LeBron when they took their talents somewhere else - , and so on.

The positive and negative facts here aren't outlandish and most/all comments are fair. He does rely on his skating ability to generate chances more than most goal scorers that have the innate positioning skills to lurk/disappear and get open for scoring opportunities, which could hurt him in years to come. His one-timing ability is probably the worst in the entire NHL (literally). It blows my mind that someone doesn't force him to up the flex on his stick by 5-10. There's got to be a better balance where he can still have the potent wrister/snap shot and a serviceable one-timer. I'm foreshadowing the possibility of him reinventing himself a little bit (and probability for that matter because most good/great players do it).

Any who, I think one thing not being mentioned here though is time value of money. In the last 2-3 years of his contract, a 6.8 million dollar cap hit will probably be par for the course for a second line forward. I don't think there is any way, even with a continued decline, he's lower than a second liner at that time.

Circling back to level headed cap management, as WAS GM said, "I think if you try to do something, there's a much higher probability you make the team worse, instead of better." The Pens want to push the pace and score goals, which is Phil Kessel's game. Regardless of any continued decline, Phil will most likely be making the Pens better than he is worse at the end of his contract, despite what his cap hit allows us to do. He is currently the NHL poster boy for secondary scoring, and while he certainly won't hold that title forever, I think he's worth the cap hit in each respective year compared to his peers.