I love playoff hockey.

I understand analytics and probability.

Everybody loves an underdog.

Go Pens!
- icedog97

Pens aren't "an underdog"

Best team in the league without having their #1D. Defending champs. 2 of the top 5 forwards in the league. 2 1st lines, a 2nd line, and a 3rd line. Best forwards top to bottom in the league. Fastest team in the league. Very solid defense and goaltending. Solid coaching. IMO they were the favorites coming into this series, and still are(obviously).

..."So the best team in the NHL for the last two years is on the verge of elimination..."

Sorry, but you're not the best team in the NHL if you are always eliminated in the playoffs.

EK clearly doesn't vet his bloggers very well.
- Rinosaur

But.. he has a college degree. Good thing he put that to use blogging for a site not taken seriously by the hockey world. At least his flawless grammar in his blogs can attest to his credentials, oh wait.

Ah, luck. What do the fancy stats people call it, PDO? The fancy stat to point to when all the other fancy stats aren't working out like they're supposed to.

And who cares if Tanner is trolling? Troll him right back. It's telling how childish he is when he resorts to calling people names.

I'm stoked the Pens are winning, but god damn are they lucky. Timely goals, Cullen getting away with a tiny bit of holding on Shatty, Fleury playing like 2008 Fleury, Holtby looking like dog poop. I don't know how anyone can watch these games and think the Pens have been the better team for the majority of the time. But either way, good for Fleury. One of the most like-able guys in the game, dude is standing on his head against the best team in the league.

I'm stoked the Pens are winning, but god damn are they lucky. Timely goals, Cullen getting away with a tiny bit of holding on Shatty, Fleury playing like 2008 Fleury, Holtby looking like dog poop. I don't know how anyone can watch these games and think the Pens have been the better team for the majority of the time. But either way, good for Fleury. One of the most like-able guys in the game, dude is standing on his head against the best team in the league.
- j.boyd919

Come on man, any realistic analysis of the game is just straight up pure trolling.

Actually, you are completely incorrect on the last statement. An 80% probability averages wrong 1 in 5 times. It also can be wrong 20 times in a row. This is how casinos make their money. They love people like you. "Oh, Red has hit 10 times in a row, so black has to hit next....so lets bet a lot of money on it". Casinos have millions of bets that go on every day, and the probability will eventually hit over the long haul. But it takes hundreds of thousands, or millions for you to get to that average sometimes. Probability treats each instance separately and they are disparate from each other. So assuming the caps will win the next game just because Pittsburgh won the last two even if it was an 80% probability is an absolute fallacy. You have to have thousands of repetitions to approach that percentage...a small subset of 7 games (or 4 for that matter) can completely fall outside of that probability and its not even that unusual. Thats without factoring in the facts such as being outplayed in goal and by the superstars.
- gravemaster

That was literally my point.

If you need to be pedantic, there are literally dozens of commentors here who need your help.

Come on man, any realistic analysis of the game is just straight up pure trolling.
- james_tanner1

^^Most Pens fans, because they only see the scoreboard, and when people explain what just happened... they get all soft and dry. All chaffed up.

It is a fact that a goalie playing out of his mind IS NOT LUCK.

Yes it is . He's saving a higher percentage of saves than is possible to continue doing. It is a guarantee that his save percentage goes down the longer the series goes.

- james_tanner1

I have a legitimate question about this statement... By this logic, any great, statistically improbable performance by an athlete is lucky? If you want to say that his numbers are not generally sustainable over a long period of time, I would certainly agree. But calling his performance "lucky" is laughable, and doesn't give any credit to the way Fleury is playing. And I'm not sure how you can "guarantee" any sports outcome.

I have a legitimate question about this statement... By this logic, any great, statistically improbable performance by an athlete is lucky? If you want to say that his numbers are not generally sustainable over a long period of time, I would certainly agree. But calling his performance "lucky" is laughable, and doesn't give any credit to the way Fleury is playing. And I'm not sure how you can "guarantee" any sports outcome.
- Geno16

Really what it comes down to is the fact that the Pens are limiting the high danger chances, and Holtby is having serious trouble in the medium danger range. Pens are slightly edging out the scoring chance battle and really making the most of those opportunities.

Gloom, despair and agony on me,
Deep dark depression... excessive misery,
If it weren't for bad LUCK, I'd have no LUCK at all,
Gloom, despair and agony on me !

From Hee Haw... should be the Caps new fight song

I have a legitimate question about this statement... By this logic, any great, statistically improbable performance by an athlete is lucky? If you want to say that his numbers are not generally sustainable over a long period of time, I would certainly agree. But calling his performance "lucky" is laughable, and doesn't give any credit to the way Fleury is playing. And I'm not sure how you can "guarantee" any sports outcome.
- Geno16

I guarantee no single event, but you can guarantee things like save percentage dropping.

Without really getting into a semantics argument about a term as general and all-purspose as the world 'luck' I'd rather just say fine, don't call it lucky.

The word isn't important.

The fact is that a goalie stopping 95% of his shots is an extremely good bet to see a course correction almost immediately. This isn't like a small sample size that could take weeks to correct.

Just off the top of my head, after two games I can think of a couple goal posts (don't even count as shots) and plays where normally the puck is going in (two specific crease-plays were a position player stopped the puck) so clearly it takes some degree of luck to even stop 95% of the shots.

While Feury's performance has been good, keep this in mind:

Put him in the AHL and he's going to have a significant talent upgrade over most other goalies, lessening the amount of luck it takes to have a supreme performance. If he came to your men's league, he'd probably never allow a goal. But going up against other pros where you no talent edge, means that luck plays a huge role in every person having a big game.

I can't wait to watch a team give him 7yr/49 mil and realize what a mistake it is.
- mw630

please PLEASE dont be the rangers

Man, Tanner & Wilson are tough to read... Put your "advanced stats" and luck to bed. This series is akin to the Rumble in the Jungle. Pens playing Ali and the Caps playing Foreman.

Pens are letting the Caps go wild and burn themselves out early and are countering with precision. Look at the Pens goals... how many are countering off of aggressive attacks by the Caps?

Its the little things... watch the Kessel goal, even when Ovi back checks (which is rare) he chases the puck carrier and leaves Kessel wide open. Crosby back checks and smartly deflects a puck into the corner, saving what would have been an easy goal. That is a two goal swing that won't show up in "advanced stats".

This is the NHL version of the rope-a-dope. The Pens letting the Caps feel in control out hitting and out shooting without landing any real damage. Then the Pens are countering with speed and skill to put the Caps out. The series isn't over but the Pens are proving so far that stats don't mean sh*t.

Man, Tanner & Wilson are tough to read... Put your "advanced stats" and luck to bed. This series is akin to the Rumble in the Jungle. Pens playing Ali and the Caps playing Foreman.

Pens are letting the Caps go wild and burn themselves out early and are countering with precision. Look at the Pens goals... how many are countering off of aggressive attacks by the Caps?

Its the little things... watch the Kessel goal, even when Ovi back checks (which is rare) he chases the puck carrier and leaves Kessel wide open. Crosby back checks and smartly deflects a puck into the corner, saving what would have been an easy goal. That is a two goal swing that won't show up in "advanced stats".

This is the NHL version of the rope-a-dope. The Pens letting the Caps feel in control out hitting and out shooting without landing any real damage. Then the Pens are countering with speed and skill to put the Caps out. The series isn't over but the Pens are proving so far that stats don't mean sh*t.
- MacPatty

Nah.

Man, Tanner & Wilson are tough to read... Put your "advanced stats" and luck to bed. This series is akin to the Rumble in the Jungle. Pens playing Ali and the Caps playing Foreman.

Pens are letting the Caps go wild and burn themselves out early and are countering with precision. Look at the Pens goals... how many are countering off of aggressive attacks by the Caps?

Its the little things... watch the Kessel goal, even when Ovi back checks (which is rare) he chases the puck carrier and leaves Kessel wide open. Crosby back checks and smartly deflects a puck into the corner, saving what would have been an easy goal. That is a two goal swing that won't show up in "advanced stats".

This is the NHL version of the rope-a-dope. The Pens letting the Caps feel in control out hitting and out shooting without landing any real damage. Then the Pens are countering with speed and skill to put the Caps out. The series isn't over but the Pens are proving so far that stats don't mean sh*t.
- MacPatty

You do realize Tanner even says Pens are scoring on the odd man rushes...

You guys gonna make this a series or not?
Jesus, beat the pens...get rid of those fackers.

I'm stoked the Pens are winning, but god damn are they lucky. Timely goals, Cullen getting away with a tiny bit of holding on Shatty, Fleury playing like 2008 Fleury, Holtby looking like dog poop. I don't know how anyone can watch these games and think the Pens have been the better team for the majority of the time. But either way, good for Fleury. One of the most like-able guys in the game, dude is standing on his head against the best team in the league.
- j.boyd919

Tanner found his Pens support. I think the issue here is understanding what "Luck" actually means.

You guys gonna make this a series or not?
Jesus, beat the pens...get rid of those fackers.
- Fakepartofme

They just may tonight. Pens might have a few key players out of the lineup. Who knows though... they could get lucky again.

Luck Definition:

[luhk]

noun
1.
the force that seems to operate for good or ill in a person's life, as in shaping circumstances, events, or opportunities:
With my luck I'll probably get pneumonia.
2.
good fortune; advantage or success, considered as the result of chance:
He had no luck finding work.
3.
a combination of circumstances, events, etc., operating by chance to bring good or ill to a person:
She's had nothing but bad luck all year.

Unfortunately the Trump era has ushered this idea that you can just say words don't actually mean what they mean or facts don't actually matter. You just say, "No." You can't choose to change a definition just because it helps your argument.

If you look at those three definitions of "Luck" you will see they deal with a "force" and "chance." Luck has nothing to do with will, ability or a person actually doing anything themselves. This is not up for interpretation. Luck is outside of your control.

When the Pens score, it's not fortunate. The Pens had the best offense in the NHL this year, but it's somehow fortunate or lucky that they score or even generate offense? Just because they're losing the possession game doesn't mean the opportunity to generate offense is lucky. Losing the possession game doesn't mean you don't get any chances, it simply means the other team is doing a better job at it. It's not some magical force giving the Pens this opportunity. Read the definition.

When Fleury plays out of mind, it's not luck. It's not luck that he's playing in past form. A player playing well isn't "luck." A player playing well is simply a player playing well. Now, if Fleury was all over the place looking like a fish flopping around with no rhyme or reason and EVERY shot just seems to go into him, then ok... I'll call that luck because it's out of his control. Fleury is in control of Fleury right now, so again... not Luck.

When the Pens know their weakness on defense and sacrifice their bodies to cut down on quality chances or do whatever they can do keep the Caps out of high-danger situations it's not luck. It's the Pens recognizing their short-comings and compensating; something the Caps refuse to do. Again, not luck. The Pens have taken control of their obvious weakness.

When a team wins the possession game, but loses the actual game IT'S NOT BAD LUCK. There's an actual reason(s) why. Holtby playing bad isn't bad luck; he played bad in the Leafs series, but the Caps' skill was able to persevere. The goals getting passed Holtby aren't lucky bounces or "pucks with eyes." The Pens are scoring on legitimate scoring chances because they have players who can do it.

Again, I'm not arguing that the Caps aren't playing a better game; they are, but the Pens winning has nothing to with luck. Re-read the definition of "Luck" and try not to pull a Trump.

Knowledge is power.

Luck Definition:


- Rinosaur[luhk]

noun
1.
the force that seems to operate for good or ill in a person's life, as in shaping circumstances, events, or opportunities:
With my luck I'll probably get pneumonia.
2.
good fortune; advantage or success, considered as the result of chance:
He had no luck finding work.
3.
a combination of circumstances, events, etc., operating by chance to bring good or ill to a person:
She's had nothing but bad luck all year.

Unfortunately the Trump era has ushered this idea that you can just say words don't actually mean what they mean or facts don't actually matter. You just say, "No." You can't choose to change a definition just because it helps your argument.

If you look at those three definitions of "Luck" you will see they deal with a "force" and "chance." Luck has nothing to do with will, ability or a person actually doing anything themselves. This is not up for interpretation. Luck is outside of your control.

When the Pens score, it's not fortunate. The Pens had the best offense in the NHL this year, but it's somehow fortunate or lucky that they score or even generate offense? Just because they're losing the possession game doesn't mean the opportunity to generate offense is lucky. Losing the possession game doesn't mean you don't get any chances, it simply means the other team is doing a better job at it. It's not some magical force giving the Pens this opportunity. Read the definition.

When Fleury plays out of mind, it's not luck. It's not luck that he's playing in past form. A player playing well isn't "luck." A player playing well is simply a player playing well. Now, if Fleury was all over the place looking like a fish flopping around with no rhyme or reason and EVERY shot just seems to go into him, then ok... I'll call that luck because it's out of his control. Fleury is in control of Fleury right now, so again... not Luck.

When the Pens know their weakness on defense and sacrifice their bodies to cut down on quality chances or do whatever they can do keep the Caps out of high-danger situations it's not luck. It's the Pens recognizing their short-comings and compensating; something the Caps refuse to do. Again, not luck. The Pens have taken control of their obvious weakness.

When a team wins the possession game, but loses the actual game IT'S NOT BAD LUCK. There's an actual reason(s) why. Holtby playing bad isn't bad luck; he played bad in the Leafs series, but the Caps' skill was able to persevere. The goals getting passed Holtby aren't lucky bounces or "pucks with eyes." The Pens are scoring on legitimate scoring chances because they have players who can do it.

Again, I'm not arguing that the Caps aren't playing a better game; they are, but the Pens winning has nothing to with luck. Re-read the definition of "Luck" and try not to pull a Trump.

Knowledge is power.

(frank). You're right. When Cullen blocked that shot he perfectly angled that block so the puck would bounce just out of distance to allow him to get away with wrapping his free hand around shattenkirk to win the body position and bolt up the ice to slice a bouncing puck while being whacked from behind through Holtby's 5 hole. Yeah there was ZERO luck involved.

(frank). You're right. When Cullen blocked that shot he perfectly angled that block so the puck would bounce just out of distance to allow him to get away with wrapping his free hand around shattenkirk to win the body position and bolt up the ice to slice a bouncing puck while being whacked from behind through Holtby's 5 hole. Yeah there was ZERO luck involved.
- j.boyd919

I see your sarcasm, but you're right. There was ZERO luck involved, so thank you.

If you want to zone in on one goal like that, we could sit here all day and point out how hockey is a game of bounces/inches, so the game itself is inherently 50% luck. What about the other four goals? Those were all luck?

Cullen's hard work persisted and he beat out Shattenkirk to that puck. The goal on Holtby wasn't luck; it was Holtby playing how Holbty has thus far in the playoffs... mediocre.

You clearly don't know what luck, but that's ok. I'm sure you can read up.

I see your sarcasm, but you're right. There was ZERO luck involved, so thank you.

If you want to zone in on one goal like that, we could sit here all day and point out how hockey is a game of bounces/inches, so the game itself is inherently 50% luck. What about the other four goals? Those were all luck?

Cullen's hard work persisted and he beat out Shattenkirk to that puck. The goal on Holtby wasn't luck; it was Holtby playing how Holbty has thus far in the playoffs... mediocre.

You clearly don't know what luck, but that's ok. I'm sure you can read up.
- Rinosaur

- j.boyd919

That was a tremendous response. Maybe the best response ever by any other poster on this board. Believe me.

What a lucky save by Winnik!