I think this is pretty simple. The Caps need to get it together. they are a better team but right now they aren't elevating their game. it's that simple
- Maverick1818

Bingo. The Pens are playing like a team that wants to win and doing whatever they need to win; the Caps are not.

Bingo. The Pens are playing like a team that wants to win and doing whatever they need to win; the Caps are not.
- Rinosaur

That's how I see it, they have the ability to bring their game up a level and so do that Caps but the Caps came into round one and didn't get it done like they should have and then aren't in round two.

I still think if they do, the Pens are done but it'll be up to the Caps.

I also think a lot of it has to fall on Holtby, he hasn't been the amazing goalie we have known him to be and he needs to step it up.

That's how I see it, they have the ability to bring their game up a level and so do that Caps but the Caps came into round one and didn't get it done like they should have and then aren't in round two.

I still think if they do, the Pens are done but it'll be up to the Caps.

I also think a lot of it has to fall on Holtby, he hasn't been the amazing goalie we have known him to be and he needs to step it up.
- Maverick1818

I don't think this series finished. If the Caps find that level, I agree that the Pens are finished and I also agree a lot falls on Holtby; he's been mediocre in both the Leafs series and this one.

I don't think this series finished. If the Caps find that level, I agree that the Pens are finished and I also agree a lot falls on Holtby; he's been mediocre in both the Leafs series and this one.
- Rinosaur

it's weird, it's not characteristic of him at all. I guess we'll see if they can bring it up a level

Bingo. The Pens are playing like a team that wants to win and doing whatever they need to win; the Caps are not.
- Rinosaur

This is it right here. The Pens are led by Crosby who does all the intangibles to lead the team as well.

It has nothing to do with me being right or wrong.

It is a fact that the Penguins have won because of high save and shooting percentages.

It is a fact that the Capitals controlled more of the play and took more shots.

It is a fact that the team who does that usually wins.

It is a fact that (while possible) teams that win with high PDOs tend to fall back to earth.

I said this after last game: When you play well and lose, you have to ask if you need to trust the process or make adjustments. The stats say the Capitals should trust the process.

They aren't getting rewarded for doing the things that usually get rewarded in hockey games.

There is a chance that the Capitals keep playing well and MAF continues to play amazing. It's not likely, but it can definitely happen.

The most likely outcome for game three is that if the Caps continue to play like they did in games one and two, they will win.

Just because something goes against the analytics doesn't make it wrong. The entire purpose of analytics to is to find probabilities. Critics of this seem to miss the key point that even an 80% probability is wrong 1 in 5 times.
- james_tanner1

Dude you are a jagoff.

The Pens have been and still are a better team , You idiots look at stupid analytics and think it is gospel. Watch the damn game and realize that the Caps have been the Pens B*****s as long as they have been in the league. Go raise your Presidents banner next year and we will raise #5

The Caps are stinking up the joint from Trotz, to Holtby, and the rest of the team. Yes, they have dominated more than not, but that is not how the game is decided.
Holtby has been sub par, the Caps are struggling to score, and most importantly Trotz doesn't have any answers. The Pens are supposedly banged up and yet who can tell? The better team is winning and that is how it works. The Pens appear to have a better game plan and execution. Hats off to them. Also, Fleury has been a stud. Those are are the facts jack.

It's a fact the pens have won 2 games.
- Upstate_isles

Lol - as much as I have faith in Tanner's dissection of the last two games, that has to be the most sobering fact of all.

Caps are down 2; maybe they 'deserved' better. BUT if they want to ever win, they are going to have to dig deep and there is no better time than now to show that determination.

See you (frank)ers on Monday.

Lol - as much as I have faith in Tanner's dissection of the last two games, that has to be the most sobering fact of all.

Caps are down 2; maybe they 'deserved' better. BUT if they want to ever win, they are going to have to dig deep and there is no better time than now to show that determination.

See you (frank)ers on Monday.
- ghostibator

It is there for them, you see flashes of it in this series. I think if they can just get a the lead, they will play with more confidence. You could see last game, when the Pens got that 2-1 lead, and they hit the post...it was like...not this ish again. The look to the heavens thing. I think they come out and smoke the Pens in game 3. Then the Pens come back and win game 4. If I am the Pens, get the first goal and the Caps may fall apart.

Lol - as much as I have faith in Tanner's dissection of the last two games, that has to be the most sobering fact of all.

Caps are down 2; maybe they 'deserved' better. BUT if they want to ever win, they are going to have to dig deep and there is no better time than now to show that determination.

See you (frank)ers on Monday. (Emphasis added)
- ghostibator

Deserving has got nothing to do with it.

Dude you are a jagoff.

The Pens have been and still are a better team , You idiots look at stupid analytics and think it is gospel. Watch the damn game and realize that the Caps have been the Pens B*****s as long as they have been in the league. Go raise your Presidents banner next year and we will raise #5
- acpappas

Pens are not 'the better team'. But they are getting it done. That's what SPORTS are all about.

Pens are basically a 1.5 line time at the moment; they barely get any sustained offensive zone possession, but they managed to pop a few in. Luck? or maybe just Efficiency?

As someone said earlier, Caps are playing with fire battling offense with offense, but the Pens are playing a risky game letting the Caps hangout in their zone so much.

It has worked out thus far, and really the shots were pretty pedestrian, but with 4 posts/bars last game, and atleast 3 the first game, there certainly is a LUCK factor involved. That's just how it goes though.

Caps better sack up and come out roarin' on Monday.

Deserving has got nothing to do with it.
- szielinski

No poop numbnutz. Read my whole comment. My point is that is just that. Sack up and fight; posts and bars will be hit, and you might get 40 shots. BUT it doesn't mean you will win.

Pens are not 'the better team'. But they are getting it done. That's what SPORTS are all about.

Pens are basically a 1.5 line time at the moment; they barely get any sustained offensive zone possession, but they managed to pop a few in. Luck? or maybe just Efficiency?

As someone said earlier, Caps are playing with fire battling offense with offense, but the Pens are playing a risky game letting the Caps hangout in their zone so much.

It has worked out thus far, and really the shots were pretty pedestrian, but with 4 posts/bars last game, and atleast 3 the first game, there certainly is a LUCK factor involved. That's just how it goes though.

Caps better sack up and come out roarin' on Monday.
- ghostibator

Don't agree they are a one and a half line team. Through two games they ve got offensedrom people on all 4... that being said the Malkin and Bonino line need to be better.

Oh... the people here... so hateful for Tanner for his opinions, but you just make it easier for him to be able to give them by all this silly rage and debating.

Pens are not 'the better team'. But they are getting it done. That's what SPORTS are all about.

Pens are basically a 1.5 line time at the moment; they barely get any sustained offensive zone possession, but they managed to pop a few in. Luck? or maybe just Efficiency?

As someone said earlier, Caps are playing with fire battling offense with offense, but the Pens are playing a risky game letting the Caps hangout in their zone so much.

It has worked out thus far, and really the shots were pretty pedestrian, but with 4 posts/bars last game, and atleast 3 the first game, there certainly is a LUCK factor involved. That's just how it goes though.

Caps better sack up and come out roarin' on Monday.
- ghostibator

I'm not going to argue who's a better team, but seriously, a 1.5 line team? That's one of the most ignorant comments I've read through all this. If that's true, the caps are a one line team.

the pens are playing without their #1 Dman who eats 30 minutes/night and their #1 goalie has not played in the post season. i do believe in puck luck but i would not say these 2 pens wins were luck.

you mentioned that the odds were that the pens and fleury would play worse than their performance the first 2 games, what proof is there that the caps will play better? those stares on the bench when it was a 3-1 game last night looked like they threw in the towel. the pens have the last change the next 2 games and have a much better record at home than on the road. so i am thinking the pens split the next 2 worst case scenario.

Honestly he wrote this the other day and got hits so he did it again. Why bother responding anymore he's clearly trolling us, caps could get swept and he maintain their the best team ever.

Honestly he wrote this the other day and got hits so he did it again. Why bother responding anymore he's clearly trolling us, caps could get swept and he maintain their the best team ever.
- Upstate_isles

That's what I said. It's a troll blog.

Anybody who wants to say the Caps are the better team should look at the top 4 scorers in the playoffs at the moment.

Just checking the scoring for Dmen... Ian Cole and J Schultz have 5 and 4 points respectively. Shatty and Nisky have the same amount as Ollie Maatta and Hainsey with 3. Pens have played one less game too.

Let's not forget that the Pens have made the likely Vezina winner and last years winner look like trash.

Pens are not 'the better team'. But they are getting it done. That's what SPORTS are all about.

Pens are basically a 1.5 line time at the moment; they barely get any sustained offensive zone possession, but they managed to pop a few in. Luck? or maybe just Efficiency?

As someone said earlier, Caps are playing with fire battling offense with offense, but the Pens are playing a risky game letting the Caps hangout in their zone so much.

It has worked out thus far, and really the shots were pretty pedestrian, but with 4 posts/bars last game, and atleast 3 the first game, there certainly is a LUCK factor involved. That's just how it goes though.

Caps better sack up and come out roarin' on Monday.
- ghostibator

Who won the first 2 games? Go ahead and live in your analytic fantasy land, 1.5 line team and if the pucks that hit the post went in. Bottom line Pens up 2-0 and Pens won last year. Better team, better coach nuff said

Who won the first 2 games? Go ahead and live in your analytic fantasy land, 1.5 line team and if the pucks that hit the post went in. Bottom line Pens up 2-0 and Pens won last year. Better team, better coach nuff said
- acpappas

The Pens could win four straight and the narrative here won't change. I ll give him credit at least Tanner responds to people's comments unlike other bloggers!

Honestly he wrote this the other day and got hits so he did it again. Why bother responding anymore he's clearly trolling us, caps could get swept and he maintain their the best team ever.
- Upstate_isles

You are a better man than I. I know/knew he was trolling, but I couldn't help it.

It has nothing to do with me being right or wrong.

It is a fact that the Penguins have won because of high save and shooting percentages.

It is a fact that the Capitals controlled more of the play and took more shots.

It is a fact that the team who does that usually wins.

It is a fact that (while possible) teams that win with high PDOs tend to fall back to earth.

I said this after last game: When you play well and lose, you have to ask if you need to trust the process or make adjustments. The stats say the Capitals should trust the process.

They aren't getting rewarded for doing the things that usually get rewarded in hockey games.

There is a chance that the Capitals keep playing well and MAF continues to play amazing. It's not likely, but it can definitely happen.

The most likely outcome for game three is that if the Caps continue to play like they did in games one and two, they will win.

Just because something goes against the analytics doesn't make it wrong. The entire purpose of analytics to is to find probabilities. Critics of this seem to miss the key point that even an 80% probability is wrong 1 in 5 times.
- james_tanner1

Actually, you are completely incorrect on the last statement. An 80% probability averages wrong 1 in 5 times. It also can be wrong 20 times in a row. This is how casinos make their money. They love people like you. "Oh, Red has hit 10 times in a row, so black has to hit next....so lets bet a lot of money on it". Casinos have millions of bets that go on every day, and the probability will eventually hit over the long haul. But it takes hundreds of thousands, or millions for you to get to that average sometimes. Probability treats each instance separately and they are disparate from each other. So assuming the caps will win the next game just because Pittsburgh won the last two even if it was an 80% probability is an absolute fallacy. You have to have thousands of repetitions to approach that percentage...a small subset of 7 games (or 4 for that matter) can completely fall outside of that probability and its not even that unusual. Thats without factoring in the facts such as being outplayed in goal and by the superstars.

James Tanner: Coaching, Luck Sink Capitals
- james_tanner1

I love playoff hockey.

I understand analytics and probability.

Everybody loves an underdog.

Go Pens!

So.....let me get this straight.....


The "best team in the league over the past 2 years" is the Capitals, and not the defending Stanley Cup champions, the team that eliminated the Caps from the playoffs last year, and the team that is currently up 2-0 on the Caps in this years playoffs?

That's really what you're going with? The Caps are the leagues best team since 2015?

Nobody cares about regular season wins and select fancy stats.

Its about having the players that get the job done at the time of need. One team in this series has them, the other doesn't(minus Justin Williams).

Pens know how to counter attack, use their speed to create odd man rushes, and take advantage of their chances. That's a deadly formula when you have A. Elite star power/world class talent and B. The best forwards top to bottom in the NHL. Combine that with solid goaltending, and its not "luck", its simply the better team getting the job done.