Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest! Joined: 07.19.2015
Feb 9 @ 2:31 AM ET
The best part is that it's very smart stats and math people that were running websites that evaluated what happened with what we know as advanced stats.
All the NHL teams hire these guys...and then suddenly they supposedly get magic advanced stats that are so much better than before? They have a lot more time/money/effort that is put into what each team considers to be important and can break it into much more detail.
Would have to be an idiot to think they hire these people to search naturalstattrick all day and anything the NHL teams do doesnt make what is available on the internet wrong. Baseball adapted it quicker, because it's easier to evaluate, but the same poop happened - YuenglingJagr
Exactly. What we look at as advanced stats (and it's way beyond Corsi or even just on-ice events) is just the culmination of a ton of research done by very smart people, with parallel math and science backgrounds who also love hockey, doing statistical evaluating and modeling. Anyone can go back and look at Eric Tulsky's articles on Broad Street Hockey, a fan site, and see his articles on hockey stats research, back when it was a little more nascent. He was hired by the Hurricanes. He and others piggybacked off each other, and through that, voila, we have the bedrock of research in hockey analytics. They designed the tools; we use them and treat them as axiomatic. That they were hired doesn't change that it was THEIR research or websites to begin with.
No doubt someone like him has resources more easily at hand, and is committed to furthering analytical research and the evaluation method. But there's some important things to note: the actual stats he uses (or the guys from War on Ice, or whoever else) probably are close to identical to what we have, per crowd source. That part is just counting. Using mental brain power to evaluate the stats and determine what comes next is what he's paid for (hopefully).
And plenty of franchises "using" analytics, if they do, are not guaranteed to be using them properly or effectively or much at all. There's so much data out there, and NHL franchises probably only use a small bit of it, due to confusion or stubbornness. And if they are interested, it's probably more so in cherry picking raw data they arbitrarily like than properly analyzing it, perhaps even at the behest of the department head in charge there who isn't exactly an Eric Tulsky. But here's the other important thing. There's plenty more where he came from doing freelance work on it themselves. It's not like one of these people gets hired, and everyone else is like, "The (frank) do we do now?!" Plenty of smart people keep on doing research. No one can look at a site like this and tell me otherwise....
Exactly. What we look at as advanced stats (and it's way beyond Corsi or even just on-ice events) is just the culmination of a ton of research done by very smart people, with parallel math and science backgrounds who also love hockey, doing statistical evaluating and modeling. Anyone can go back and look at Eric Tulsky's articles on Broad Street Hockey, a fan site, and see his articles on hockey stats research, back when it was a little more nascent. He was hired by the Hurricanes. He and others piggybacked off each other, and through that, voila, we have the bedrock of research in hockey analytics. They designed the tools; we use them and treat them as axiomatic. That they were hired doesn't change that it was THEIR research or websites to begin with.
No doubt someone like him has resources more easily at hand, and is committed to furthering analytical research and the evaluation method. But there's some important things to note: the actual stats he uses (or the guys from War on Ice, or whoever else) probably are close to identical to what we have, per crowd source. That part is just counting. Using mental brain power to evaluate the stats and determine what comes next is what he's paid for (hopefully).
And plenty of franchises "using" analytics, if they do, are not guaranteed to be using them properly or effectively or much at all. There's so much data out there, and NHL franchises probably only use a small bit of it, due to confusion or stubbornness. And if they are interested, it's probably more so in cherry picking raw data they arbitrarily like than properly analyzing it, perhaps even at the behest of the department head in charge there who isn't exactly an Eric Tulsky. But here's the other important thing. There's plenty more where he came from doing freelance work on it themselves. It's not like one of these people gets hired, and everyone else is like, "The (frank) do we do now?!" Plenty of smart people keep on doing research. No one can look at a site like this and tell me otherwise....
One thing that I've said is that repeatedly is that the science of analytics is very sound. That's never been debated by me. Here is where you and jagr went badly off course. You make the comment of plenty of franchises "using" analytics, if they do, are not guaranteed to be using them properly or effectively or much at all. There's an arrogance there on your part for someone who heavily relies on analytics to form his opinion. Why does that not also apply to you, or any other fan looking at analytics websites? I read it all the time in your posts, how NHL teams and specifically the Flyers are making poor decisions. You watch the game and fancy analytics, so you know better!
Jagr makes the statement that the hire these guys and they all of sudden get analytics that are so much better. Well yes, they do. Why else would they hire them and pay them? Common sense.
Here is the difference. If we look at analytics from the very beginning of it coming to the mainstream, it has grown. They've refined and come up with better ways to statistically analyze the game over time. To think that's not going to continue when a team hires one of these experts, is absurd. Of course it's going to continue to grow. Now when one of these guys finds new and better ways, it's just for their team!
Secondly, with any statistic, the better the data, the better the statistics generated. Data that go into the stats that we as fans have, isn't very good for the most part. It's very basic, and there is a lot of false data in it for individual players. John Chayka founded Stathletes, which is a company that used intense video study to compile statistics on the sport of hockey. Once he was hired by Arizona, in an interview he stated that he and his staff spend about 6 hours breaking down each game. What do you think they're doing? LOL. You can get most of the statistical data for each game that we as fans have access to in minutes after the game is over!
Let's just look at one basic stat Corsi, to keep this as short as possible. When looking at their own players, teams just don't look at the team data for when that player is on the ice. That's not very good. What they do is use modern technology, software and video, to breakdown each players shifts in each game. They want specific data as much as possible for that player. So in the town hall when a naive fan brings up corsi to Hakstol and he says throw it out the window, there's a very good reason why he can say that because he has access to so much better information. When he states he knows because he looks at it, and he studies it, that's what he's referring to.
Here is an interview with Bob McKenzie talking about analytics. Keep in mind that this is from 2 1/2 years ago.
The sooner you guys realize where analytics has gone, and what teams have access to compared to what fans have access to, the better you'll understand analytics.
One thing that I've said is that repeatedly is that the science of analytics is very sound. That's never been debated by me. Here is where you and jagr went badly off course. You make the comment of plenty of franchises "using" analytics, if they do, are not guaranteed to be using them properly or effectively or much at all. There's an arrogance there on your part for someone who heavily relies on analytics to form his opinion. Why does that not also apply to you, or any other fan looking at analytics websites? I read it all the time in your posts, how NHL teams and specifically the Flyers are making poor decisions. You watch the game and fancy analytics, so you know better!
Jagr makes the statement that the hire these guys and they all of sudden get analytics that are so much better. Well yes, they do. Why else would they hire them and pay them? Common sense.
Here is the difference. If we look at analytics from the very beginning of it coming to the mainstream, it has grown. They've refined and come up with better ways to statistically analyze the game over time. To think that's not going to continue when a team hires one of these experts, is absurd. Of course it's going to continue to grow. Now when one of these guys finds new and better ways, it's just for their team!
Secondly, with any statistic, the better the data, the better the statistics generated. Data that go into the stats that we as fans have, isn't very good for the most part. It's very basic, and there is a lot of false data in it for individual players. John Chayka founded Stathletes, which is a company that used intense video study to compile statistics on the sport of hockey. Once he was hired by Arizona, in an interview he stated that he and his staff spend about 6 hours breaking down each game. What do you think they're doing? LOL. You can get most of the statistical data for each game that we as fans have access to in minutes after the game is over!
Let's just look at one basic stat Corsi, to keep this as short as possible. When looking at their own players, teams just don't look at the team data for when that player is on the ice. That's not very good. What they do is use modern technology, software and video, to breakdown each players shifts in each game. They want specific data as much as possible for that player. So in the town hall when a naive fan brings up corsi to Hakstol and he says throw it out the window, there's a very good reason why he can say that because he has access to so much better information. When he states he knows because he looks at it, and he studies it, that's what he's referring to.
Here is an interview with Bob McKenzie talking about analytics. Keep in mind that this is from 2 1/2 years ago.
The sooner you guys realize where analytics has gone, and what teams have access to compared to what fans have access to, the better you'll understand analytics. - MJL
This post is a way too long response to a post that is way to long.
Poster 1: I like and strongly believe in the value of the numbers.
Poster 2: You don't understand the numbers than NHL teams use. - jmatchett383
Nope, that's wrong. Someone cannot understand numbers that they don't have access to. The point is that NHL teams have better numbers than fans have access to.
Nope, that's wrong. Someone cannot understand numbers that they don't have access to. The point is that NHL teams have better numbers than fans have access to. - MJL
They have different numbers. Better is subjective. But yes, I worded that incorrectly.
Exactly. What we look at as advanced stats (and it's way beyond Corsi or even just on-ice events) is just the culmination of a ton of research done by very smart people, with parallel math and science backgrounds who also love hockey, doing statistical evaluating and modeling. Anyone can go back and look at Eric Tulsky's articles on Broad Street Hockey, a fan site, and see his articles on hockey stats research, back when it was a little more nascent. He was hired by the Hurricanes. He and others piggybacked off each other, and through that, voila, we have the bedrock of research in hockey analytics. They designed the tools; we use them and treat them as axiomatic. That they were hired doesn't change that it was THEIR research or websites to begin with.
No doubt someone like him has resources more easily at hand, and is committed to furthering analytical research and the evaluation method. But there's some important things to note: the actual stats he uses (or the guys from War on Ice, or whoever else) probably are close to identical to what we have, per crowd source. That part is just counting. Using mental brain power to evaluate the stats and determine what comes next is what he's paid for (hopefully).
And plenty of franchises "using" analytics, if they do, are not guaranteed to be using them properly or effectively or much at all. There's so much data out there, and NHL franchises probably only use a small bit of it, due to confusion or stubbornness. And if they are interested, it's probably more so in cherry picking raw data they arbitrarily like than properly analyzing it, perhaps even at the behest of the department head in charge there who isn't exactly an Eric Tulsky. But here's the other important thing. There's plenty more where he came from doing freelance work on it themselves. It's not like one of these people gets hired, and everyone else is like, "The (frank) do we do now?!" Plenty of smart people keep on doing research. No one can look at a site like this and tell me otherwise....
Not looking to continue this all day but you've basically just agreed that teams probably have data the general public doesn't have and also made the case that it's not necessarily what you have but what you do with it. Those are two different issues. I don't think anyone here has argued that by simply having data you're good at using it and will draw the right conclusions for your team. All some of us have been saying, and you seem to agree, is that we as the general public don't have everything that the teams have in terms of data.
It's really not worth raising blood pressure over.
Now, if you'll excuse me, it's a snow day so I have some "working from home" to do. lol
