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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Defense/Offense Conundrum, Ghost, Giroux, Goalies
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MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Feb 7 @ 5:52 PM ET
If you read any of my other posts you'd know that I'm reasonably forward thinking about this stuff. I am not ranting in the street about the Flyers apocalypse coming, saying trade all of da players for da otter teams' guys players. I do not want immediate, blow-up decisions thinking just about the short-term.

I have a couple long-term worries, and I think they're too easily swept up under the rug by saying that Giroux is hurt (which is baseless speculation) and that all will suddenly be well on that front when young defensemen in their first couple years in the league come in, with plenty of room to grow and hit their stride on their own. I don't think some overpaid bandaid free agent forward and a couple first and second year defensemen are the key to truly competing in the next season or two as you put it. Better? 100%, and I'm excited about it given I watch these prospects super closely. But I'm skeptical if it's quite enough, and if does anything to prevent the inevitable that is the window may be a few years further away than that even.

- Mononoke



The team has to be in sync. The Flyers are heading from a team that was lacking defenseman, to a team that might be stacked on defense, but is lacking up front. I'm not doom and gloom either, but just cant escape that if this is what we get from Giroux, and possibly even further decline, that puts a serious damper on the parade.

I think Hextall has to do some serious soul searching heading into this off season and how he wants to proceed. Those decisions are really going to make him earn his pay.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Feb 7 @ 5:58 PM ET
The ability to sign both of those players to those deals certainly helped them. I have not disputed that.

What you allude to is the Blackhawks model. Solidify your core, and then supplement around that as needed.

- MJL


Build around a core? Wow what kind of genius is Stan Bowman? Every team in the NHL is trying to supplement their core...the only thing that is different is how old the core is.

YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Feb 7 @ 6:00 PM ET
the hossa and keith deals are undeniably major, major factors in their success. i can't see how that's disputable.

however, they had kane and toews on their bridge deals around 6ish for a few years and while they were able to reap the rewards then, they are paying it now. cost of doing business in that aspect.

as bitter as they do make me, i have to give them a lot of credit for identifying guys that were useful players but they were wise to not fall in love with. theyve had a lot of turnover in the various cups as far as supporting cast.

- stayinthefnnet


Just going off of memory...seems like they would have trouble signing at least hammer and Crawford. They were up against the cap for greater than 3 seasons with a cap savings close to 4 million.

It will come back to bite them, but they won't care
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Feb 7 @ 6:04 PM ET
But I never said that Giroux wasn't a franchise talent, and that those guys were only so because they won Cups. That's not my stance at all. All of those players were absolute franchise players to begin with, and in their prime when they won or helped lead their teams to the final. Toews (aged 21-26); Bergeron (25-27); Kopitar (age 24-26); Zetterberg (27-28). And they all actually were 70-80 point players at that point, save for Bergeron who is an odd case and one of the better 2-way centers maybe in NHL history. Plus they had Krejci as another low end 1C.
- Mononoke


This is the weirdest debate I've had because we agree. So I'm not even sure what to say. I am just trying to say that at least right now, the Flyers are headed in a direction that is in line with the way the NHL is played. It worries me more that they are 3 years late to that party more than anything else.

Maybe I am just expecting more from Hextall, but we both agree he can't just keep resigning guys without making sacrifices. That is where his job will get difficult. I don't think he has really made any sacrifices yet.

Maybe coburn could be considered one but that was on a tee as far as I'm concerned. Would love it if he got rid of 2 defensemen in the coming two weeks
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Feb 7 @ 6:05 PM ET
Build around a core? Wow what kind of genius is Stan Bowman? Every team in the NHL is trying to supplement their core...the only thing that is different is how old the core is.
- YuenglingJagr


Do you dispute whether that is the Blackhawks model? There are other differences than just how old the core is, that you've missed which would point out how asinine the sarcastic comment on Bowman is.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Feb 7 @ 6:06 PM ET
They won't be competing for a Cup without a clear #1 center. Giroux is not that anymore. He can be better than he is but he's not that. I see no point in hanging onto a 2nd line Right winger approaching 30 with intangibles if there's a good chance his play could land you a top prospect that could be that #1 center.

It's all about operating within windows in the modern landscape of the cap environment in any sport. Identify when your window could open and do everything you can to burst through it guns a blazing.

MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Feb 7 @ 6:08 PM ET
Just going off of memory...seems like they would have trouble signing at least hammer and Crawford. They were up against the cap for greater than 3 seasons with a cap savings close to 4 million.

It will come back to bite them, but they won't care

- YuenglingJagr


They've also been hurt by bonus money earned.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Feb 7 @ 6:08 PM ET
This is the weirdest debate I've had because we agree. So I'm not even sure what to say. I am just trying to say that at least right now, the Flyers are headed in a direction that is in line with the way the NHL is played. It worries me more that they are 3 years late to that party more than anything else.

Maybe I am just expecting more from Hextall, but we both agree he can't just keep resigning guys without making sacrifices. That is where his job will get difficult. I don't think he has really made any sacrifices yet.

Maybe coburn could be considered one but that was on a tee as far as I'm concerned. Would love it if he got rid of 2 defensemen in the coming two weeks

- YuenglingJagr


Don't know about sacrifices but he's taken no risk yet. Part of that is because he hasn't had to. But the time will come soon where he will have to go out on a limb in some way
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Feb 7 @ 6:11 PM ET
Don't know about sacrifices but he's taken no risk yet. Part of that is because he hasn't had to. But the time will come soon where he will have to go out on a limb in some way
- Just5


He has to decide soon what direction this team is going to head in in terms of the veteran players on the team. I'm not just talking about decisions that need to be made heading into the trade deadline.
Baxter27
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.03.2007

Feb 7 @ 6:29 PM ET
They won't be competing for a Cup without a clear #1 center. Giroux is not that anymore. He can be better than he is but he's not that. I see no point in hanging onto a 2nd line Right winger approaching 30 with intangibles if there's a good chance his play could land you a top prospect that could be that #1 center.

It's all about operating within windows in the modern landscape of the cap environment in any sport. Identify when your window could open and do everything you can to burst through it guns a blazing.

- Just5

There is no indication that Simmonds could bring back a top prospect with #1 centre Potential. If Hextall worries about Windows closing before they're even open he's going to be stuck limbo. Hextall has a responsibility to continually improve the team. Impact players will emerge from all different sources and the extent of their impact is rarely predictable. Waiting for players you can label as cup caliber before assembling a strong team is a good way to be ill prepared when they finally arrive.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Feb 7 @ 6:31 PM ET
He has to decide soon what direction this team is going to head in in terms of the veteran players on the team. I'm not just talking about decisions that need to be made heading into the trade deadline.
- MJL


Understood. Major shakeups aren't what the deadline is for anyway. Usually these will be draft day deals. I think Simmonds will have similar value next year also. There's no reason why he wont continue on this pace
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Feb 7 @ 6:35 PM ET
There is no indication that Simmonds could bring back a top prospect with #1 centre Potential. If Hextall worries about Windows closing before they're even open he's going to be stuck limbo. Hextall has a responsibility to continually improve the team. Impact players will emerge from all different sources and the extent of their impact is rarely predictable. Waiting for players you can label as cup caliber before assembling a strong team is a good way to be ill prepared when they finally arrive.
- Baxter27


A 30 goal scoring power forward who is dynamite on the PP, can also PK and is on a bargain of a contract for 2 more years is absolutely a piece that can bring back a top prospect from another organization

Think Milan Lucic trade...which brought back a #13 overall, a very good goaltending prospect in Martin Jones and another lower tier prospect.

Also...do not underestimate the contract that he's on. The Flyers could potentially sell to any team the prospect of having Simmonds on their team for a 1.9 mil a year cap charge for 2 more years after this one
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Feb 7 @ 6:42 PM ET
Put Bishop behind this Flyers team for that span. Think he'd have done better -- enough to be worth expending assets to be an upgrade -- as compared to Mason and Neuvirth? I don't.
- bmeltzer


Baxter27
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.03.2007

Feb 7 @ 6:43 PM ET
A 30 goal scoring power forward who is dynamite on the PP, can also PK and is on a bargain of a contract for 2 more years is absolutely a piece that can bring back a top prospect from another organization

Think Milan Lucic trade...which brought back a #13 overall, a very good goaltending prospect in Martin Jones and another lower tier prospect

- Just5

A top prospect vs someone the Flyers think can be their next #1 centre is a little different. How often do teams trade others their next top Center. Sequin is the most recent example I can think of and his whole trade history is bizarre.
Baxter27
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.03.2007

Feb 7 @ 6:57 PM ET
I'm not even against moving Simmonds in the right circumstances. I'm against moving him based on the idea is value will never be higher and the crystal ball thinking that he doesn't fit the Flyers plans. Many over value his current trade return potential vs future trade value.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Feb 7 @ 7:02 PM ET
I'm not even against moving Simmonds in the right circumstances. I'm against moving him based on the idea is value will never be higher and the crystal ball thinking that he doesn't fit the Flyers plans. Many over value his current trade return potential vs future trade value.
- Baxter27


Hard to say what his value might be. Some could be undervaluing it. I think one simple question needs to be asked. Does anyone think the Flyers can be a top team in the next 2-3 years with the current group of top forwards?
ravishingone
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, PA
Joined: 06.30.2007

Feb 7 @ 7:05 PM ET
Trades happen involving young dmen for similarly young top 6 forwards. James Neal, Ryan
Johannsen (spelling?], Jeff Carter come to mind. Is there really an expectation Provorov, Sanheim, Morin, Haag, and Ghost will all be with the Flyers long term? I don't, even more so if other guys like Wilcox, Friedman, and either of the Swedes development is accelerated.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Feb 7 @ 7:09 PM ET
Trades happen involving young dmen for similarly young top 6 forwards. James Neal, Ryan
Johannsen (spelling?], Jeff Carter come to mind. Is there really an expectation Provorov, Sanheim, Morin, Haag, and Ghost will all be with the Flyers long term? I don't, even more so if other guys like Wilcox, Friedman, and either of the Swedes development is accelerated.

- ravishingone


If the Flyers end up with a surplus of good young defenseman, if there is such as thing, Hextall will probably use that to shore up a weakness on the team.
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Feb 7 @ 7:10 PM ET
No one wants to trade Simmonds and we'd prefer other decisions first. But signing a 31 year old needing a well deserved 6-7 year deal is dicey to begin with for a team that may not be quite there yet. There's time yet though.

Truthfully, GMs would be tripping over themselves and stabbing each other and doing countless untold things to acquire a prime Wayne Simmonds on a sweetheart deal. The deal would be huge. Fact is top #1 centers aren't really traded (do we even think Johansen is one? I don't). Like a #1 d man, you have to acquire one yourself homegrown. It's risky but what isn't. That's just sports management.
Baxter27
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.03.2007

Feb 7 @ 7:11 PM ET
Hard to say what his value might be. Some could be undervaluing it. I think one simple question needs to be asked. Does anyone think the Flyers can be a top team in the next 2-3 years with the current group of top forwards?
- MJL

I don't think that question needs to be asked until next season.
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Feb 7 @ 7:14 PM ET
Do you dispute whether that is the Blackhawks model? There are other differences than just how old the core is, that you've missed which would point out how asinine the sarcastic comment on Bowman is.
- MJL


can someone provide me what their working definition on Blackhawks model even really is?

i'm not going to critique them for tanking/being lucky with kane and toews. and then realizing what their main group of 5 or 6 guys are and then having the guts to walk away from their own as overpriced FAs. but am i missing something that is specific to them?

i wont say bowman is bad at what he's doing, because he has had some good decisions as well as strokes of luck. but hes not exactly reinventing the wheel
ravishingone
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, PA
Joined: 06.30.2007

Feb 7 @ 7:14 PM ET
If the Flyers end up with a surplus of good young defenseman, if there is such as thing, Hextall will probably use that to shore up a weakness on the team.
- MJL


Absolutely. A young dman with perceived room for growth is a heck of a bargaining chip in the trade market . Honestly, I think the team is pretty much where Hextall thought it would be at this point.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Feb 7 @ 7:17 PM ET
can someone provide me what their working definition on Blackhawks model even really is?

i'm not going to critique them for tanking/being lucky with kane and toews. and then realizing what their main group of 5 or 6 guys are and then having the guts to walk away from their own as overpriced FAs. but am i missing something that is specific to them?

i wont say bowman is bad at what he's doing, because he has had some good decisions as well as strokes of luck. but hes not exactly reinventing the wheel

- stayinthefnnet


The entire conversation on the Blackhawks when the comment was made that the Hawks method is outdated. I disagreed.
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Feb 7 @ 7:19 PM ET
The entire conversation on the Blackhawks when the comment was made that the Hawks method is outdated. I disagreed.
- MJL


that i follow.

i was just curious what people were considering to be the "Hawks" method.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Feb 7 @ 7:19 PM ET
I don't think that question needs to be asked until next season.
- Baxter27


I think Hextall and his advisors should start thinking about it now. You never know, but an offer could be made for a top player on the Flyers. If that happens, he'll have a tough decision to make.

I also think even if this team is in or close to a playoff spot, he should still consider trading a few pieces. This team has enough veteran defensive depth to the point where trading someone like Streit won't be a huge blow to the team.
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