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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Defense/Offense Conundrum, Ghost, Giroux, Goalies
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Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Feb 7 @ 4:52 PM ET
It's the model that every team uses, not to the same level of success. So it seems we're in agreement. The Blackhawks methods and model of building a team is not outdated.
- MJL


The Blackhawks model is having core guys on cap circumventing contracts, which are no longer allowed.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Feb 7 @ 4:53 PM ET
Oilers fans who are 40 years old, have seen 5 Cups, got to watch Gretzky in his prime for a decade, and now have McDavid. Boy.... I bet they wish they were Flyers fans.
- PLindbergh31


But what is their all time regular season win %? And exactly how many red Russian teams have they defeated?
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Feb 7 @ 4:57 PM ET
blackhawks model is outdated as well
- YuenglingJagr


Yep. The Kangz and Penguins also benefit from that too. But that's unfair to bring that into the discussion since we were only talking about drafting, not entire team building formulas, and that doesn't change in those scenarios.

If you want to bring it in though, it probably only helps my point. The ability to keep a core of Cup talent together is even harder now. You have to sign them to more bloated AAV deals if you want to keep them. It's possible that makes windows even smaller going forward. It certainly only increases the value of young talent in their prime on entry level deals or signed to their first long-term contracts while still RFAs. It makes drafting, and consistent drafting, even more important. Look at a team like the Hawks. Their drafting since putting their core together has been really really bad, with only Saad of note. Bust after bust and a bunch of nothings. That becomes even more of an impediment now.

Say most of our D pan out, so that the d group is basically around what we'd hope it would be. It has an expiration date from Day 1. As they get older, the odds we have the cap space to sign them all grows increasingly unlikely. The Flyers will have to be more pick and choosey. That makes the idea of young, elite forward talent to share their window even more important. Because if we go down this road, only to inevitably discover the older forwards are not up to snuff, and then have to build that up, then the young defense may already have to be broken up in part.
Baxter27
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.03.2007

Feb 7 @ 4:57 PM ET
They haven't made the playoffs in 10 years. How were they relevant during that period? Because of a Cup won in 1990?
- Feanor


I was maybe 3 years old but I can't escape the relevance.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Feb 7 @ 5:00 PM ET
Yep. The Kangz and Penguins also benefit from that too. But that's unfair to bring that into the discussion since we were only talking about drafting, not entire team building formulas, and that doesn't change in those scenarios.

If you want to bring it in though, it probably only helps my point. The ability to keep a core of Cup talent together is even harder now. You have to sign them to more bloated AAV deals if you want to keep them. It's possible that makes windows even smaller going forward. It certainly only increases the value of young talent in their prime on entry level deals or signed to their first long-term contracts while still RFAs. It makes drafting, and consistent drafting, even more important.

Say most of our D pan out, so that the d group is basically around what we'd hope it would be. It has an expiration date from Day 1. As they get older, the odds we have the cap space to sign them all grows increasingly unlikely. The Flyers will have to be more pick and choosey. That makes the idea of young, elite forward talent to share their window even more important. Because if we go down this road, only to inevitably discover the older forwards are not up to snuff, and then have to build that up, then the young defense may already have to be broken up in part.

- Mononoke


im responding to this post but I only not just read everything you said on your last post. I am busy at work and reading really big posts is currently the first thing to go.

in regards to the comment about how old giroux/jake will be in 3-5 years. I don't see them being the top players on this team by then. I also don't think our highest paid players need to be our most important players (especially in terms of scoring).

I will say that the good thing about the Flyers not necessarily drafting in the top 5 or 10, they are at least drafting a lot of players per year. It becomes a much different situation if they pick low in draft AND have fewer picks (something that got them in this place to begin with)

Okay now I will read this post I am responding to here
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Feb 7 @ 5:01 PM ET
Yep. The Kangz and Penguins also benefit from that too. But that's unfair to bring that into the discussion since we were only talking about drafting, not entire team building formulas, and that doesn't change in those scenarios.

If you want to bring it in though, it probably only helps my point. The ability to keep a core of Cup talent together is even harder now. You have to sign them to more bloated AAV deals if you want to keep them. It's possible that makes windows even smaller going forward. It certainly only increases the value of young talent in their prime on entry level deals or signed to their first long-term contracts while still RFAs. It makes drafting, and consistent drafting, even more important.

Say most of our D pan out, so that the d group is basically around what we'd hope it would be. It has an expiration date from Day 1. As they get older, the odds we have the cap space to sign them all grows increasingly unlikely. The Flyers will have to be more pick and choosey. That makes the idea of young, elite forward talent to share their window even more important. Because if we go down this road, only to inevitably discover the older forwards are not up to snuff, and then have to build that up, then the young defense may already have to be broken up in part.

- Mononoke



A huge concern...great thought process here. As much as we all love our Simmonds and Giroux's. Heart and soul flyers who have given a lot to this franchise, any sentimental feeling or letters on their jerseys doesn't change the fact that moving on from them in the right deal would be the best course of action for the Flyers in order to maximize their chances of winning a Cup. These are not irreplaceable talents
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Feb 7 @ 5:07 PM ET
Yep. The Kangz and Penguins also benefit from that too. But that's unfair to bring that into the discussion since we were only talking about drafting, not entire team building formulas, and that doesn't change in those scenarios.

If you want to bring it in though, it probably only helps my point. The ability to keep a core of Cup talent together is even harder now. You have to sign them to more bloated AAV deals if you want to keep them. It's possible that makes windows even smaller going forward. It certainly only increases the value of young talent in their prime on entry level deals or signed to their first long-term contracts while still RFAs. It makes drafting, and consistent drafting, even more important. Look at a team like the Hawks. Their drafting since putting their core together has been really really bad, with only Saad of note. Bust after bust and a bunch of nothings. That becomes even more of an impediment now.

Say most of our D pan out, so that the d group is basically around what we'd hope it would be. It has an expiration date from Day 1. As they get older, the odds we have the cap space to sign them all grows increasingly unlikely. The Flyers will have to be more pick and choosey. That makes the idea of young, elite forward talent to share their window even more important. Because if we go down this road, only to inevitably discover the older forwards are not up to snuff, and then have to build that up, then the young defense may already have to be broken up in part.

- Mononoke


I think what you've laid out...while is very true, is also using the assumption that the Flyers won't continue to draft well.

We don't know how things will play out in 5 years, and trust me, I see the "worst case scenario" of being stuck in limbo basically, but again I go back to the way they've been drafting, being in the position of having too many good players to pay doesnt sound like the worst case scenario
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Feb 7 @ 5:07 PM ET
im responding to this post but I only not just read everything you said on your last post. I am busy at work and reading really big posts is currently the first thing to go.

in regards to the comment about how old giroux/jake will be in 3-5 years. I don't see them being the top players on this team by then. I also don't think our highest paid players need to be our most important players (especially in terms of scoring).

I will say that the good thing about the Flyers not necessarily drafting in the top 5 or 10, they are at least drafting a lot of players per year. It becomes a much different situation if they pick low in draft AND have fewer picks (something that got them in this place to begin with)

Okay now I will read this post I am responding to here

- YuenglingJagr


I'll keep it brief. I have been pretty clear that Giroux still can anchor a top PP to respectability and probably 60 points or so. I think his points could even go up next year because this 5v5 scoring is abnormal and a team problem too. Jake doesn't worry me as much. I think he can still be the second best forward on a Cup team for years. Some people are a little too doom and gloom, acting like G still isn't pacing for 64 points or whatever right now.

I also trust the Flyers scouts to unearth gems and keep a good stockpile. But finding solid players and finding franchise talent.....2 separate things. Even the scouts need the high end resources to do that better.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Feb 7 @ 5:13 PM ET
I'll keep it brief. I have been pretty clear that Giroux still can anchor a top PP to respectability and probably 60 points or so. I think his points could even go up next year because this 5v5 scoring is abnormal and a team problem too. Jake doesn't worry me as much. I think he can still be the second best forward on a Cup team for years. Some people are a little too doom and gloom, acting like G still isn't pacing for 64 points or whatever right now.

I also trust the Flyers scouts to unearth gems and keep a good stockpile. But finding solid players and finding franchise talent.....2 separate things. Even the scouts need the high end resources to do that.

- Mononoke


I'll keep it briefer...I dont think they need to find the next generational talent or 80 point player to win a cup...I really don't

A bit of an exaggeration here, but guys like Toews, Bergeron, Kopitar, Zetterberg arent considered franchise talent if they dont win cups first. If we swtich Giroux or Coots with those guys (players they have been compared to) what happens? Feel me?


PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Feb 7 @ 5:18 PM ET
You mentioned the Oilers and relevance. I can assure you they have always been relevant.
- PLindbergh31


I wonder if Oiler fans feel the last 7 years were worth it
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Feb 7 @ 5:18 PM ET
The Blackhawks model is having core guys on cap circumventing contracts, which are no longer allowed.
- Feanor


If you think out how many players, 40 or so, maybe more, that have played on the Hawks during their Cup runs, that having 2 players signed to front loaded contracts with low years on the back end, constitutes the Blackhawks model of team building, then we disagree.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Feb 7 @ 5:22 PM ET
I cant believe they're still holding a playoff spot
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Feb 7 @ 5:23 PM ET
I think what you've laid out...while is very true, is also using the assumption that the Flyers won't continue to draft well.

We don't know how things will play out in 5 years, and trust me, I see the "worst case scenario" of being stuck in limbo basically, but again I go back to the way they've been drafting, being in the position of having too many good players to pay doesnt sound like the worst case scenario

- YuenglingJagr


I just want Hextall to make up his mind in the next 12-18 months or so -- with some aging guys on expiring deals, our most important player starting to show his age, and the top prospect forward talent not being as strong as the rest -- on whether or not the rebuild isn't less far along than thought with the forward core, and if it isn't prudent to take a step back to take 2 steps forward (not really talking about wins/losses here).
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Feb 7 @ 5:26 PM ET
I wonder if Oiler fans feel the last 7 years were worth it
- PhillySportsGuy

They aren't even thinking about it except to wave it a happy good bye.

The same way I felt about the 5 years I bought tickets with no playoffs only to end up with Lindros on the ice for the Flyers.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Feb 7 @ 5:27 PM ET
I cant believe they're still holding a playoff spot
- Just5

Lol
steelydan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 04.16.2009

Feb 7 @ 5:27 PM ET
I just want Hextall to make up his mind in the next 12-18 months or so -- with some aging guys on expiring deals, our most important player starting to show his age, and the top prospect forward talent not being as strong as the rest -- on whether or not the rebuild isn't less far along than thought with the forward core, and if it isn't prudent to take a step back to take 2 steps forward (not really talking about wins/losses here).
- Mononoke


Is our most important player showing his age, or is he just playing hurt? Meh, who cares. Hit the panic button anyway.

Or, maybe. The Flyers remain the bubble team that they were expected to be, and continue to stir in the young defensemen (ie: trade Streit, bring up prospect A). Come next season, you have a younger, cheaper defense with some legit money to spend on a forward. Maybe then we can expect to compete with the top 2-3 teams in the conference.

MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Feb 7 @ 5:31 PM ET
Is our most important player showing his age, or is he just playing hurt? Meh, who cares. Hit the panic button anyway.

Or, maybe. The Flyers remain the bubble team that they were expected to be, and continue to stir in the young defensemen (ie: trade Streit, bring up prospect A). Come next season, you have a younger, cheaper defense with some legit money to spend on a forward. Maybe then we can expect to compete with the top 2-3 teams in the conference.

- steelydan



I certainly hope he has a physical issue that will improve, but I have doubts about that. I really don't want the Flyers to spend any significant money in free agency until they get much closer to being a top team.
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Feb 7 @ 5:34 PM ET
I'll keep it briefer...I dont think they need to find the next generational talent or 80 point player to win a cup...I really don't

A bit of an exaggeration here, but guys like Toews, Bergeron, Kopitar, Zetterberg arent considered franchise talent if they dont win cups first. If we swtich Giroux or Coots with those guys (players they have been compared to) what happens? Feel me?

- YuenglingJagr


But I never said that Giroux wasn't a franchise talent, and that those guys were only so because they won Cups. That's not my stance at all. All of those players were absolute franchise players to begin with, and in their prime when they won or helped lead their teams to the final. Toews (aged 21-26); Bergeron (25-27); Kopitar (age 24-26); Zetterberg (27-28). And they all actually were 70-80 point players at that point, save for Bergeron who is an odd case and one of the better 2-way centers maybe in NHL history. Plus they had Krejci as another low end 1C.
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Feb 7 @ 5:36 PM ET
If you think out how many players, 40 or so, maybe more, that have played on the Hawks during their Cup runs, that having 2 players signed to front loaded contracts with low years on the back end, constitutes the Blackhawks model of team building, then we disagree.
- MJL


the hossa and keith deals are undeniably major, major factors in their success. i can't see how that's disputable.

however, they had kane and toews on their bridge deals around 6ish for a few years and while they were able to reap the rewards then, they are paying it now. cost of doing business in that aspect.

as bitter as they do make me, i have to give them a lot of credit for identifying guys that were useful players but they were wise to not fall in love with. theyve had a lot of turnover in the various cups as far as supporting cast.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Feb 7 @ 5:39 PM ET
the hossa and keith deals are undeniably major, major factors in their success. i can't see how that's disputable.

however, they had kane and toews on their bridge deals around 6ish for a few years and while they were able to reap the rewards then, they are paying it now. cost of doing business in that aspect.

as bitter as they do make me, i have to give them a lot of credit for identifying guys that were useful players but they were wise to not fall in love with. theyve had a lot of turnover in the various cups as far as supporting cast.

- stayinthefnnet


The ability to sign both of those players to those deals certainly helped them. I have not disputed that.

What you allude to is the Blackhawks model. Solidify your core, and then supplement around that as needed.
steelydan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 04.16.2009

Feb 7 @ 5:39 PM ET
I certainly hope he has a physical issue that will improve, but I have doubts about that. I really don't want the Flyers to spend any significant money in free agency until they get much closer to being a top team.
- MJL


Something has to give. They don't have enough firepower with their current forwards to make the leap from a bubble team to a legitimate contender; even if the majority of defensive prospects pan out. At some point, you need to bring in another scorer. Although it obviously depends on FA crop, current cap status, and other factors; I think they should look to bring in that player once he becomes available (at the right price, of course).

People always want to state the demise of Giroux, or his inability to obtain "elite" status. At the end of the day, he's a top-tier talent who continues to put people in their place. Of course he'll slow down, but he's 8.5 years into the league at 29 years old. No reason to think he doesn't have another 3-4 years of high-level compete in him.
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Feb 7 @ 5:42 PM ET
The ability to sign both of those players to those deals certainly helped them. I have not disputed that.
- MJL


wasn't trying to be accusatory and my apologies if it came off that way. just needed a break from work and had to let my bitterness shine through whenever given the chance haha
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Feb 7 @ 5:42 PM ET
Is our most important player showing his age, or is he just playing hurt? Meh, who cares. Hit the panic button anyway.

Or, maybe. The Flyers remain the bubble team that they were expected to be, and continue to stir in the young defensemen (ie: trade Streit, bring up prospect A). Come next season, you have a younger, cheaper defense with some legit money to spend on a forward. Maybe then we can expect to compete with the top 2-3 teams in the conference.

- steelydan


If you read any of my other posts you'd know that I'm reasonably forward thinking about this stuff. I am not ranting in the street about the Flyers apocalypse coming, saying trade all of da players for da otter teams' guys players. I do not want immediate, blow-up decisions thinking just about the short-term.

I have a couple long-term worries, and I think they're too easily swept up under the rug by saying that Giroux is hurt (which is baseless speculation) and that all will suddenly be well on that front when young defensemen in their first couple years in the league come in, with plenty of room to grow and hit their stride on their own. I don't think some overpaid bandaid free agent forward and a couple first and second year defensemen are the key to truly competing in the next season or two as you put it. Better? 100%, and I'm excited about it given I watch these prospects super closely. But I'm skeptical if it's quite enough, and if does anything to prevent the inevitable that is the window may be a few years further away than that even. Hey, I love what Hextall is doing so far long-term. I just want him to KEEP doing it.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Feb 7 @ 5:46 PM ET
Something has to give. They don't have enough firepower with their current forwards to make the leap from a bubble team to a legitimate contender; even if the majority of defensive prospects pan out. At some point, you need to bring in another scorer. Although it obviously depends on FA crop, current cap status, and other factors; I think they should look to bring in that player once he becomes available (at the right price, of course).

People always want to state the demise of Giroux, or his inability to obtain "elite" status. At the end of the day, he's a top-tier talent who continues to put people in their place. Of course he'll slow down, but he's 8.5 years into the league at 29 years old. No reason to think he doesn't have another 3-4 years of high-level compete in him.

- steelydan


Giroux has scored 12 points in 5 on 5 play, in 54 games played. That has him ranked 261st in the NHL. That is alarming.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Feb 7 @ 5:47 PM ET
wasn't trying to be accusatory and my apologies if it came off that way. just needed a break from work and had to let my bitterness shine through whenever given the chance haha
- stayinthefnnet


Not at all, I knew what you were saying. Always enjoy your input.
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