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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Wrap: Flyers Road Woes Continue, Lose 4-1 in Buffalo, Simmonds an All-Star
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dragonoffrost
Season Ticket Holder
Location: The East Coast Dump, NJ
Joined: 10.12.2015

Jan 11 @ 10:08 AM ET
It's fun to be on the list finally.
- BINGO!


BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Jan 11 @ 10:09 AM ET

- dragonoffrost


Why? You know I'll be back.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jan 11 @ 10:10 AM ET
It's fun to be on the list finally.
- BINGO!


lol, that's cute
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Jan 11 @ 10:12 AM ET
lol, that's cute
- Scoob



You try watching a team struggle to be competitive for umpteen years.
dragonoffrost
Season Ticket Holder
Location: The East Coast Dump, NJ
Joined: 10.12.2015

Jan 11 @ 10:13 AM ET


You try watching a team struggle to be competitive for umpteen years.

- BINGO!


Not our fault you got bounced from the kiddie division to the big boys division.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Jan 11 @ 10:16 AM ET
Not our fault you got bounced from the kiddie division to the big boys division.
- dragonoffrost


?

We sucked in that division too, dude.

Only 3 points back of the Flyers now with 2 games in hand.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jan 11 @ 10:20 AM ET
As a scientist who looks interprets data for a living, I find a bit of fault the way you are looking this data, or how most people look at data. You are making an assumption that the 10 game streak was out of the norm, but it's part of the data set. So, you can't say that, because it happened. One could argue that the 10 game winning streak is closer to what the flyers are and losses such as last night are out of the norm. You have to look at the data for what it is. I feel like I sound like MJL, so I'm sorry about that....

Honest question, Given the lack of roster turnover, it is possible that your expectations were too high this year?

- VladDrag

I see a 10 game win streak (something they havent done in about 2400 games) a bit out of the norm, yes... Im not trying to be a Richard either. I just think a win streak of about 3-4 games.. not out of the norm. Winning 7 straight is out of the norm IMO...

I also thought that they would be improved this year, seeing how they improved as the season moved on last year.

I looked at a few things:
Hak's second year.
Additions of Provy and Konecny
Weise > White
Healthy MDZ
Full year of Ghost
Couts continuing his offensive growth.


Now that was being optimistic. I did expect some bumps for Ghost, but not to this level.

I didnt expect MDZ to regress.

I didnt expect White to have more points than Weise half way through the season.

You cant plan for injuries.. and I definitely didnt think you would be seeing AMac on the top D pair...

All in all, I did expect better. I expected them to be a bubble team. I didnt expect a record long win streak or prolonged losing streaks.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jan 11 @ 10:24 AM ET


You try watching a team struggle to be competitive for umpteen years.

- BINGO!


lol

I do pay attention to them as I have ties in that area.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jan 11 @ 10:28 AM ET
lol

I do pay attention to them as I have ties in that area.

- Scoob

in your mind?
dragonoffrost
Season Ticket Holder
Location: The East Coast Dump, NJ
Joined: 10.12.2015

Jan 11 @ 10:32 AM ET
?

We sucked in that division too, dude.

Only 3 points back of the Flyers now with 2 games in hand.

- BINGO!


I just miss

BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Jan 11 @ 10:36 AM ET
I just miss


- dragonoffrost



We all do.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 11 @ 10:37 AM ET
As a scientist who looks interprets data for a living, I find a bit of fault the way you are looking this data, or how most people look at data. You are making an assumption that the 10 game streak was out of the norm, but it's part of the data set. So, you can't say that, because it happened. One could argue that the 10 game winning streak is closer to what the flyers are and losses such as last night are out of the norm. You have to look at the data for what it is. I feel like I sound like MJL, so I'm sorry about that....

Honest question, Given the lack of roster turnover, it is possible that your expectations were too high this year?

- VladDrag



Nah, you don't sound like me. If you did, you would post that 10 game win streaks in the NHL are out of the norm. Since you interpret data for a living, how many 10 game win streaks have there been in the last 3 NHL seasons? How about the last 5 or 10 seasons?
hockeylover
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: There's always next year., NT
Joined: 08.03.2006

Jan 11 @ 10:43 AM ET
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jan 11 @ 10:45 AM ET
Nah, you don't sound like me. If you did, you would post that 10 game win streaks in the NHL are out of the norm. Since you interpret data for a living, how many 10 game win streaks have there been in the last 3 NHL seasons? How about the last 5 or 10 seasons?
- MJL

was that a class you took while studying for your masters in hockey?
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jan 11 @ 10:48 AM ET
in your mind?
- YuenglingJagr


lol

body and spirit, too
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jan 11 @ 10:49 AM ET
Nah, you don't sound like me. If you did, you would post that 10 game win streaks in the NHL are out of the norm. Since you interpret data for a living, how many 10 game win streaks have there been in the last 3 NHL seasons? How about the last 5 or 10 seasons?
- MJL


I think there have been three so far this season.

But I agree they are out of the norm.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jan 11 @ 10:50 AM ET
I just miss


- dragonoffrost


That was a fantastic logo. Great colors, too.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Jan 11 @ 10:51 AM ET
That was a fantastic logo. Great colors, too.
- Scoob


My Whalers Sami Kapanen jersey is my most prized possession.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jan 11 @ 10:52 AM ET
I think there have been three so far this season.

But I agree they are out of the norm.

- Scoob


10 game winning streaks going back to before the shootout would be less frequent you would think due to games ending in ties.
mickel25
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Morgantown, PA
Joined: 01.21.2011

Jan 11 @ 10:52 AM ET
Nah, you don't sound like me. If you did, you would post that 10 game win streaks in the NHL are out of the norm. Since you interpret data for a living, how many 10 game win streaks have there been in the last 3 NHL seasons? How about the last 5 or 10 seasons?
- MJL


I agree with you. However, this year has 3 or 4 separate 10 game win streaks. So this year they are seemingly "the norm".
hockeylover
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: There's always next year., NT
Joined: 08.03.2006

Jan 11 @ 10:54 AM ET
I agree with you. However, this year has 3 or 4 separate 10 game win streaks. So this year they are seemingly "the norm".
- mickel25


or perhaps this year is simply out of the norm.
VladDrag
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: West Chester, PA
Joined: 01.13.2009

Jan 11 @ 10:59 AM ET
Nah, you don't sound like me. If you did, you would post that 10 game win streaks in the NHL are out of the norm. Since you interpret data for a living, how many 10 game win streaks have there been in the last 3 NHL seasons? How about the last 5 or 10 seasons?
- MJL


I don't have the time to do that. It would take way too much data analysis to do that, and I don't care enough. What I'm saying is that if it happened, it's in the data set and you can't ignore it or replace it with other data.

It's like saying, I deal with facts, and these are the facts and I don't deal in hypothetical situations.

EDIT -- and that wouldn't be interpreting data, that would simply be looking it up.

You could interpret it by looking at how many there have been, then figuring the average and the standard deviation...Then you could determine 2 SDs...and basically anything that is on either side of 2 SDs would be 'out of the norm'...

So it wouldn't be too difficult to figure out, at least statistically, but it's a lot of work I don't feel like doing.
mickel25
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Morgantown, PA
Joined: 01.21.2011

Jan 11 @ 10:59 AM ET
or perhaps this year is simply out of the norm.
- hockeylover


Like the guy from Cheers?
dragonoffrost
Season Ticket Holder
Location: The East Coast Dump, NJ
Joined: 10.12.2015

Jan 11 @ 10:59 AM ET
or perhaps this year is simply out of the norm.
- hockeylover

VladDrag
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: West Chester, PA
Joined: 01.13.2009

Jan 11 @ 11:01 AM ET


I also thought that they would be improved this year, seeing how they improved as the season moved on last year.

I looked at a few things:
Hak's second year.
Additions of Provy and Konecny
Weise > White
Healthy MDZ
Full year of Ghost
Couts continuing his offensive growth.


Now that was being optimistic. I did expect some bumps for Ghost, but not to this level.

I didnt expect MDZ to regress.

I didnt expect White to have more points than Weise half way through the season.

You cant plan for injuries.. and I definitely didnt think you would be seeing AMac on the top D pair...

All in all, I did expect better. I expected them to be a bubble team. I didnt expect a record long win streak or prolonged losing streaks.

- jak521


I agree with all of what you said, I just didn't think it would make them that much better. I do think they should be higher in the standings than they are, but I'm not surprised they are not.
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