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Forums :: Blog World :: James Tanner: Unsolved Mysteries: Taylor Hall and the Breakdown of Logic & Common Sense
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Steven_Stamkos
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Doesn't like this
Joined: 05.08.2016

Sep 14 @ 1:20 PM ET
only 2 guys with better p/60 5v5 in the league ( and 1 of them had a tiny sample )....how much more defense do you want him to play?
- Garnie


Seems like to me a good coach will put players in situations where they are more likely to succeed; and to protect their weaknesses.

Kane has been very successful racking up points with favorable zone starts and lower competition. Gardiner has proven to be effective against 2nd tier competition.

Babcock and Quenville doing their jobs well.
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Sep 14 @ 1:21 PM ET
catching up on this thread

Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Sep 14 @ 1:23 PM ET
Seems like to me a good coach will put players in situations where they are more likely to succeed; and to protect their weaknesses.

Kane has been very successful racking up points with favorable zone starts and lower competition. Gardiner has proven to be effective against 2nd tier competition.

Babcock and Quenville doing their jobs well.

- Steven_Stamkos


We use these arguments for EK:

In the last five years, Erik Karlsson has had the puck in the offensive zone roughly 54.2% of the time. I don't think the best defensive-defenseman in the world could play good enough defense to make up for the puck just not being near their goalie for that much time.

Kane's CF over the same 5 years is 53.3%...so can we say the same thing?

ifiwasgm
Joined: 11.10.2014

Sep 14 @ 1:24 PM ET
So we keep hearing the rant that Hall is always injured, but he played all 82 last year. And granted he has had some crazy unlucky injuries, (skate in the face in warm-up) which everyone knows were his own fault.

Tyler Seguin has never played a full season, and he seems to always be injured. I get it, "HE NEVER PLAYED FOR THE OILERS"

Sad that alot of Oiler fans think it was Hall's fault that the team sucked for 10yrs too(and he was only here for 6)

Edit: Seguin made 48 in lockout year (this not meant to be aknock against Seguin in any way)
Steven_Stamkos
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Doesn't like this
Joined: 05.08.2016

Sep 14 @ 1:31 PM ET
We use these arguments for EK:

In the last five years, Erik Karlsson has had the puck in the offensive zone roughly 54.2% of the time. I don't think the best defensive-defenseman in the world could play good enough defense to make up for the puck just not being near their goalie for that much time.

Kane's CF over the same 5 years is 53.3%...so can we say the same thing?


- Garnie


NO!

It doesn't fit the narrative we are trying to make everyone believe: Chicago players = bad and many players on bad teams = good.
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Sep 14 @ 1:33 PM ET
NO!

It doesn't fit the narrative we are trying to make everyone believe: Chicago players = bad and many players on bad teams = good.

- Steven_Stamkos



oh...my bad
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 14 @ 1:37 PM ET
Kane gets the most sheltered minutes in hockey, and has no defensive game to speak of. He's a great player, but for the slight upgrade in offense, Ill take Hall's overall game. Just my opinion, no one is saying this is a fact.
- JTanner



Why are you posting under your alt account? Kane should get sheltered minutes. That's quality coaching by Quenneville. Hall's overall game is not significantly better than Kane, to give him an edge.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 14 @ 1:40 PM ET
Let it go dude.

Hall is great. Oilers know it and many others do as well but there are holes in his overall game and wingers have the least impact of any position by a large margin.

Hall may or may not be a good "team guy" but that is all just speculation.

What we can say for sure is that the team wasn't winning with scrubs on the backend and Hall on the team. Now we may have lost Hall but we gained a legit top 3 defender with upside and replaced Hall with a player of good calibre.

Lw is still an area of strength for the Oilers and Justin Schultz or Nikita are no longer our defacto #1 right shooting defenders.

Oilers now much better than Oilers last year.

- Aerchon


Chiarelli's job is to put the best team he can on the ice, not the best list of players. We'll find out if the move accomplishes making the team better or not.
Tanner: Team Finland
Joined: 09.12.2016

Sep 14 @ 1:46 PM ET
Why are you posting under your alt account? Kane should get sheltered minutes. That's quality coaching by Quenneville. Hall's overall game is not significantly better than Kane, to give him an edge.
- MJL



They made me a new account for the Finland blogs so I could still write NHL ones, and I just didn't log out and relog in .
1979AD
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: "I'm a Sens Fan!" -Kaptaan
Joined: 09.08.2010

Sep 14 @ 1:48 PM ET
This is a repost of what I said 2 months ago. This will definitely help bring some light to the situation we have with Larsson (THE COMPLETE SITUATION).

Did a little bit more research on AL recently and believe it or not, he was used and depended on as a "QB" within the powerplay back when he was playing with his swedish team(s) as a youngster. Not only that, but he had a lot of time on the PP internationally and he succeeded to a high extend. He is also noted for a good shot from the point and elite passing. As for the skating rumors, his skating has come along since when he first started and he has taken great strides in inproving his transitional game via skating and positional play.

I looked even further and talked with a couple of friends who watch NJ or are a fan of a team within that division. Deboer and fellow minded coaches, aligned with the trap style of defensive play vastly limited Larsson's ability and development offensively. Last year was also a big step for him physically and responsibility wise. Here is a link that talk about the quarrels and thoughts between Deboer, the team, and Larsson and how significantly it affected his development, especially offensively.

http://bleacherreport.com...ersey-devils-upon-himself

Offensively and development wise, he began to turn the corner once Deboer was fired. The following links talks about Larsson's play with Deboer and once Deboer was fired and Scott Stevens + Adam Oates were hired, along with how it greatly impacted his offensive play (in a very good way).

http://njdab.com/articles...eakout-season-in-2015-16/

http://fireandice.northje...ved-offensively-1.1496747


Here is a link to Larsson's stats and hockey bio. Interestingly, he has won quite a few awards in his swedish league that are based on offensive stats. He was also named as one of the top 3 players for the top 3 player award in this year's world championships.

http://www.eliteprospects...m/player.php?player=10713

At first, the trade was a shocker for pretty much most of us. I'm not trying to defend the trade because we could/should have gotten more in return plus I'm a massive fan of Hall and what he did for us (Ironic how HallFan will probably have to change his name now) (a conditional 1st would have been interesting to add into the mix at least, especially considering the risks, development, and guarantees at hand).
Plus, if Lucic was also on top of Chia's priorities, a trade involving Pouliot and maybe RNH or eberle for instance would have made more sense.
Nonetheless, what happened happened. Nothing more or less than a bitter sweet move that imo was on its way.

- EdmHockeyMan


It sounds Like Chiarelli must really have re-evaluated his ways since back when he traded Seguin for the purpose of affording Horton's new contract/Horton's UFA replacement's new contract:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRyIgatcTAs

I'm not so sure. Based on the video clip, I'd be more apt to believe that you've done more research into Larsson to justify him as a player than Chia has.
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Sep 14 @ 1:49 PM ET
They made me a new account for the Finland blogs so I could still write NHL ones, and I just didn't log out and relog in .
- JTanner



I hope the Finland blog was 100% all about Komarov.
LordHumungous
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Greetings from the Humungous. Ayatollah of rock and rolla!
Joined: 08.15.2014

Sep 14 @ 1:52 PM ET
It was a clean hit. I just watched the video and not sure why you would think it was anything other than clean.
- OGoilerfan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCjafePVUIw

For sure...totally clean...blind side check blatantly to the head 4 seconds after Crosby makes the pass.

You may want to check out hockey for dummies just to help you out a bit for your understanding of the game.

https://www.amazon.com/Ho...hn-Davidson/dp/0764552287
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Sep 14 @ 2:07 PM ET
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCjafePVUIw

For sure...totally clean...blind side check blatantly to the head 4 seconds after Crosby makes the pass.

You may want to check out hockey for dummies just to help you out a bit for your understanding of the game.

https://www.amazon.com/Ho...hn-Davidson/dp/0764552287

- LordHumungous



meh...not going to watch again...but Crosby ran into him from what I remember.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 14 @ 2:10 PM ET
They made me a new account for the Finland blogs so I could still write NHL ones, and I just didn't log out and relog in .
- JTanner



That's cool.

I'll repeat a question that I asked you earlier, that you didn't answer. Are the HERO charts that you frequently post, made with score adjusted data?
NugentHallberle
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Saskatoon, SK
Joined: 10.17.2013

Sep 14 @ 2:22 PM ET
Kane gets the most sheltered minutes in hockey, and has no defensive game to speak of. He's a great player, but for the slight upgrade in offense, Ill take Hall's overall game. Just my opinion, no one is saying this is a fact.
- JTanner


Doesn't QoC even out over time and not matter?!?

"James Tanner" believes QoC doesn't matter and "JTanner - Team Finland" believes it does.... Weird. Only logical explanation is they are two different people.
Dcoms
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Chatham , ON
Joined: 06.22.2014

Sep 14 @ 3:01 PM ET
A. Bergeron>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Krecji MCDavid>>Hall, Crosby>>Malkin. And you forgot the teams that don't have 1A,1B centers

B. I'm not calling you an idiot

C. I'm saying the research is flawed at best.

- sbroads24

I'll call you an idiot if you think Bergeron and Kreci are better than Crosby, Malkin, and McDavid. Who won the cup this year again? Who has t made the playoffs in years? Dumbest post I have seen on Tanners board and considering how many he makes that is exceptional.
Blackstrom2
Washington Capitals
Location: richmond, VA
Joined: 10.11.2010

Sep 14 @ 3:03 PM ET
I'll call you an idiot if you think Bergeron and Kreci are better than Crosby, Malkin, and McDavid. Who won the cup this year again? Who has t made the playoffs in years? Dumbest post I have seen on Tanners board and considering how many he makes that is exceptional.
- Dcoms



He was saying the first line center is better than the second line center (or forward in Hall's case) for each team.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Sep 14 @ 3:36 PM ET
I'll call you an idiot if you think Bergeron and Kreci are better than Crosby, Malkin, and McDavid. Who won the cup this year again? Who has t made the playoffs in years? Dumbest post I have seen on Tanners board and considering how many he makes that is exceptional.
- Dcoms

Pittsburgh. Even an idiot knows this
Tonybere
New York Rangers
Location: ON
Joined: 02.04.2016

Sep 14 @ 3:50 PM ET
meh...not going to watch again...but Crosby ran into him from what I remember.
- Garnie


You mis-remember. Crosby was all but standing still and just turned a little when he felt someone coming very close to him. Steckel hit nothing but head, on a player that was no where near the play. Completely unnecessary, avoidable and therefore, illegal contact.
Mordecai
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: not very poggers
Joined: 08.27.2015

Sep 14 @ 3:56 PM ET
From Eric Tulsky, who is an "analytics pioneer" who holds a PHD from Harvard in chemistry and has worked in nanotechnology. He is the lead anaylitics guy on the Hurricanes and as far as I know was the first "blogger" hired by the NHL.

Conclusion

While competition certainly does play a big factor in determining how a player will do in any given shift, with these competition metrics we see nobody with usage extreme enough to require a major correction factor. Using the curve for the average player on the first chart, we can calculate that Nodl’s 95th percentile usage is only harsh enough to bump an average player’s Corsi down to 49.5%, while Betts’ 13th percentile usage would be soft enough to allow an average player to post a 50.6% Corsi.

The analogous situation in zone starts would be if everyone’s offensive zone start percentage were between 48% and 52%; such small corrections are scarcely worth the effort, and a person who ignored competition when evaluating players would not be wrong by much. Quality of competition is very similar to shot quality: it plays a huge role in individual shifts/shots, but over the course of a season the differences across teams and players are small enough that it can usually be neglected.

These competition metrics provide valuable insight into what a coach thinks of a player and how he tries to use them, but in practice they do not show differences large enough to have significant impact on the player’s results.


http://nhlnumbers.com/201...of-quality-of-competition

- James_Tanner



This was pretty interesting. It is from2012 though and neither Nodl nor Betts were very good.
Mordecai
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: not very poggers
Joined: 08.27.2015

Sep 14 @ 3:58 PM ET
Does anyone get a weird psycho-sexual vibe from all these bloggers talking about men countless times a week/year?

I studied Psychology for a year, this sounds a lot like Freud.

- PapaSquat


Freud was a fraud
annoyed
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: ON
Joined: 10.28.2013

Sep 14 @ 4:15 PM ET
You mis-remember. Crosby was all but standing still and just turned a little when he felt someone coming very close to him. Steckel hit nothing but head, on a player that was no where near the play. Completely unnecessary, avoidable and therefore, illegal contact.
- Tonybere



I watched again... Sid drifts into him.

waitforawhistle
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: manteno, IL
Joined: 12.28.2009

Sep 14 @ 4:30 PM ET
You mis-remember. Crosby was all but standing still and just turned a little when he felt someone coming very close to him. Steckel hit nothing but head, on a player that was no where near the play. Completely unnecessary, avoidable and therefore, illegal contact.
- Tonybere


Brutal hit. Doesn't belong in the game.
Steven_Stamkos
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Doesn't like this
Joined: 05.08.2016

Sep 14 @ 4:41 PM ET
From Eric Tulsky, who is an "analytics pioneer" who holds a PHD from Harvard in chemistry and has worked in nanotechnology. He is the lead anaylitics guy on the Hurricanes and as far as I know was the first "blogger" hired by the NHL.

Conclusion

While competition certainly does play a big factor in determining how a player will do in any given shift, with these competition metrics we see nobody with usage extreme enough to require a major correction factor. Using the curve for the average player on the first chart, we can calculate that Nodl’s 95th percentile usage is only harsh enough to bump an average player’s Corsi down to 49.5%, while Betts’ 13th percentile usage would be soft enough to allow an average player to post a 50.6% Corsi.

The analogous situation in zone starts would be if everyone’s offensive zone start percentage were between 48% and 52%; such small corrections are scarcely worth the effort, and a person who ignored competition when evaluating players would not be wrong by much. Quality of competition is very similar to shot quality: it plays a huge role in individual shifts/shots, but over the course of a season the differences across teams and players are small enough that it can usually be neglected.

These competition metrics provide valuable insight into what a coach thinks of a player and how he tries to use them, but in practice they do not show differences large enough to have significant impact on the player’s results.


http://nhlnumbers.com/201...of-quality-of-competition

- James_Tanner



you should read his next article on there. Describes the impact elite players (i.e. the players Rielly regularly plays against and Gardiner rarely plays against) have on goal scoring.

http://nhlnumbers.com/201...mmate-shooting-percentage


Quality of Competition stats based on Corsi only provides incomplete info that you regularly use to make flawed conclusions.

Tanner: Team Finland
Joined: 09.12.2016

Sep 14 @ 5:49 PM ET
That's cool.

I'll repeat a question that I asked you earlier, that you didn't answer. Are the HERO charts that you frequently post, made with score adjusted data?

- MJL



I would have to check.
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