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Forums :: Blog World :: James Tanner: The Best and Worst 3rd-Line Centres: CONCLUSION
Author Message
mw630
Joined: 06.24.2011

Sep 4 @ 3:29 PM ET
Hockey is a team game.
- MJL


Correct?? It's also played on ice. Are we just stating random facts here?
martox
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Stockholm - "Nights when we don't have our A-game, we better have our A-commitment & A-effort."
Joined: 09.25.2014

Sep 4 @ 3:33 PM ET
Hockey is a team game.
- MJL

yes it is but we are talking who is the better player here. not team
leonkennedy
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 3 cups in 5 years = DYNASTY
Joined: 04.13.2012

Sep 4 @ 3:56 PM ET
I do think that some guys can get a bad rap in a rating system like this - no one is perfect and there are probably better ways to evaluate a group of players.

That being said, at worst, an exercise like this is still valuable because a) you get to explore and learn about the world of depth players b) you get to get a sense of which teams have a lot of depth c) you get a sense of which teams need to improve their depth to win a Cup.

I think that since Hayes is 24, what you see is probably what you get. It is entirely possible that Hayes is an anomaly and somehow gets better as he ages Jose Bautista style.

However, if the Rangers think of themselves as Contenderse, which I am sure they do, they clearly need an upgrade at that position because, even in a best-case scenario, Hayes isn't moving into the Hertl/Bonino realm.

That being said, maybe he could be an elite 4th-line C and give his team a huge depth advantage by moving down the lineup.

- James_Tanner

http://www.hockeybuzz.com...ckeys-Discourse/155/78905
PetterKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 07.12.2015

Sep 4 @ 3:59 PM ET
James,

You should pass your analysis on Marcus Kruger on to Joel Quenneville, Scotty Bowman and the Swedish Ice Hockey association—which placed Kruger on the national team that won a silver in the 2014 Olympics and this year's WC team.

It will be very illuminating to them.

- John Jaeckel


He even played on the top line because of injures in the olympics.
rmiethaner
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Buffalo, NY
Joined: 10.04.2006

Sep 4 @ 4:02 PM ET
James,

I have watched him play regularly since 2009, when Scotty Bowman recommended him to the Hawks, based on Detroit's scouting.

You've probably seen him play, what, five times and on tv?

Take a look at the % of starts in the defensive zone, the quality of his linemates, defensive assignments, faceoff%, PK time (and how good the Chicago PK is with—and without—him) and . . . the two rings.

You can pronounce what you like based on some selective data points taken somewhat out of context.

But 2 Hall of Fame coaches (for starters), who know him and his ability a whole lot better than you do, apparently don't subscribe to the same theories. Sorry.

- John Jaeckel




This argument point has to stop on this site. It is 2016. Every game by every team is available to watch in a variety of different ways.

Also, why is everyone so sensitive if someone does not say that they think that every player on their favorite team is the best?

Hockey fans are the worst.
PetterKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 07.12.2015

Sep 4 @ 4:06 PM ET
Pretty sure Sweden also benched OEL in that tournament. At the time many people said "If OEL is really among the best player in the world, Tanner, then why did Sweden leave him off?"

Whose laughing now? He's unanimously considered a top 5 defenseman, just like I said all along.

- James_Tanner


The still made it to the final and with the most injured team so I think they made the right moves...
nvrsoft
Montreal Canadiens
Joined: 02.23.2015

Sep 4 @ 4:51 PM ET
http://public.tableau.com...KS4DFW?:display_count=yes
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Sep 4 @ 5:00 PM ET
James,

I have watched him play regularly since 2009, when Scotty Bowman recommended him to the Hawks, based on Detroit's scouting.

You've probably seen him play, what, five times and on tv?

Take a look at the % of starts in the defensive zone, the quality of his linemates, defensive assignments, faceoff%, PK time (and how good the Chicago PK is with—and without—him) and . . . the two rings.

You can pronounce what you like based on some selective data points taken somewhat out of context.

But 2 Hall of Fame coaches (for starters), who know him and his ability a whole lot better than you do, apparently don't subscribe to the same theories. Sorry.

- John Jaeckel


To be fair, I did not factor special teams into this at all, so there's a good chance he provides value there. His Cups don't really matter, since they probably win with or without him.

I don't think my data is really out of context at all - again, he scored 4 points while playing medium competition and seems to get scored on a ton.

I am sure his complete lack of an offensive game and hard zone starts probably make him better than I have rated him here, and I am sure you do know what you're talking about (though I could accuse your of being a *slight* homer).

However, even accounting for that, he's still well into the lower half of the league's third-line centres.

The stats say he's bad and we know that historically, people tend to overate the defensive contributions of gritty, hard-checking players who are very noticeable in games.

I'd be OK with moving him from the "worst" category to the simply "bad" one.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 4 @ 5:05 PM ET
Correct?? It's also played on ice. Are we just stating random facts here?
- mw630


It relates to your Toews was "exposed" last year comment.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 4 @ 5:06 PM ET
yes it is but we are talking who is the better player here. not team
- martox


Aware of that.
DeflatedPucks
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: NYC, NY
Joined: 04.29.2016

Sep 4 @ 5:08 PM ET
This argument point has to stop on this site. It is 2016. Every game by every team is available to watch in a variety of different ways.

Also, why is everyone so sensitive if someone does not say that they think that every player on their favorite team is the best?

Hockey fans are the worst.

- rmiethaner



Its JJ. Same guy who thinks Toews is the best player in the world.
devils_mike
New Jersey Devils
Location: NJ
Joined: 09.30.2009

Sep 4 @ 5:10 PM ET
Anyways, if you think Kruger is good, please tell me why. I see a guy who got 4 points and is bad at defense. For the record, there are players who get tons of bad zone starts and are actually effective. Kruger is not one of them.

There are players who play unusually hard QOC and have good stats. Kruger is not one of them.


It's fascinating to me how you somehow find value in zone starts and QOC when you are defending your position, yet explicitly left them off your initial "analysis."

And I quote: "Everyone is entitled to their own opinions and I fully disclose that I don't care about things like face-offs, quality of competition and zone starts."

devils_mike
New Jersey Devils
Location: NJ
Joined: 09.30.2009

Sep 4 @ 5:12 PM ET
To be fair, I did not factor special teams into this at all, so there's a good chance he provides value there.
- James_Tanner



Exactly. So why bother?
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Sep 4 @ 5:12 PM ET
Coming from the writer who listed Toews as the #1 center in the NHL
- mw630

He has a point.

Seriously, what's so special about Kruger? He was a 4th line center until last year and people are shocked he would be ranked as a low tier 3rd liner?
lumlums
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 06.25.2011

Sep 4 @ 5:20 PM ET
He has a point.

Seriously, what's so special about Kruger? He was a 4th line center until last year and people are shocked he would be ranked as a low tier 3rd liner?

- sbroads24


But cup rings!!!!
mw630
Joined: 06.24.2011

Sep 4 @ 5:27 PM ET
It relates to your Toews was "exposed" last year comment.
- MJL


Well I'm a little confused about your argument. He has played with a possession monster in Hossa for the majority of his time and Saad for a large portion. He was unable to elevate the play of other players on his line when they struggled this last season. While he still excelled in faceoffs, their team was largely a one scoring line team and struggled because of it.

If we're talking about best players, he should be able to pick up the slack when the top tier talent he's playing with are struggling. If the argument is this is a team game and he's not responsible for that, then his 3 cups and 2 gold medals become more insignificant in evaluating him.
devils_mike
New Jersey Devils
Location: NJ
Joined: 09.30.2009

Sep 4 @ 5:29 PM ET
I think the argument that because the Hawks use him and because he was chosen for the Swedish National team that he is somehow above criticism is pretty ridiculous.

As someone who has taught people how to argue for an actual job, I can tell you that blindly appealing to the experts is #1 on the list of terrible arguments.

This doesn't discount expert testimony of course, it just isn't a good argument because experts are also never 100% correct.

I can destroy your argument in 1 sentence: Phil Kessel was left of team USA.

Anyways, if you think Kruger is good, please tell me why. I see a guy who got 4 points and is bad at defense. For the record, there are players who get tons of bad zone starts and are actually effective. Kruger is not one of them.


There are players who play unusually hard QOC and have good stats. Kruger is not one of them.

To pay him $3 million and play him higher than the 4th line is a mistake.And if you factor who they gave to Carolina just to get out of a different bad contract, you can say its a pretty big mistake.

- James_Tanner


Yikes.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 4 @ 5:41 PM ET
Well I'm a little confused about your argument. He has played with a possession monster in Hossa for the majority of his time and Saad for a large portion. He was unable to elevate the play of other players on his line when they struggled this last season. While he still excelled in faceoffs, their team was largely a one scoring line team and struggled because of it.

If we're talking about best players, he should be able to pick up the slack when the top tier talent he's playing with are struggling. If the argument is this is a team game and he's not responsible for that, then his 3 cups and 2 gold medals become more insignificant in evaluating him.

- mw630


On occasion even the best players can struggle themselves. When trades are made and talent is removed, and players around a player struggle, it can affect a player. Toews is, and remains one of the top centers in the NHL. The comment that he was exposed, is not sensible. Toews on a down year, still put up 58 points which ranked him 24th in the league among centers.
devils_mike
New Jersey Devils
Location: NJ
Joined: 09.30.2009

Sep 4 @ 5:46 PM ET
This argument point has to stop on this site. It is 2016. Every game by every team is available to watch in a variety of different ways.

Also, why is everyone so sensitive if someone does not say that they think that every player on their favorite team is the best?

Hockey fans are the worst.

- rmiethaner


Every NHL franchise will be thrilled to know they can save money on all their scouting expenses since watching the game on TV is the same as watching it live.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Sep 4 @ 5:46 PM ET



Exactly. So why bother?

- devils_mike



Because 80% of the game is played at 5v5 and if you play PK or PP it doesn't really matter what "line" you're on anyways.
rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Sep 4 @ 6:05 PM ET
This argument point has to stop on this site. It is 2016. Every game by every team is available to watch in a variety of different ways.

Also, why is everyone so sensitive if someone does not say that they think that every player on their favorite team is the best?

Hockey fans are the worst.

- rmiethaner

Yea but nobody has the time to watch every single game by every single team to observe every single player
mw630
Joined: 06.24.2011

Sep 4 @ 6:20 PM ET
On occasion even the best players can struggle themselves. When trades are made and talent is removed, and players around a player struggle, it can affect a player. Toews is, and remains one of the top centers in the NHL. The comment that he was exposed, is not sensible. Toews on a down year, still put up 58 points which ranked him 24th in the league among centers.
- MJL


I think you may have missed the beginning of the conversation. No one is questioning that Toews is a top level talent. The issue is JJ critiquing other writer's evaluation when he ranks Toews as the BEST center in the NHL. Which, by any measurement other than faceoff win %, he is not. And in an area he excels, he was only .1% better than Giroux, and Toews took 200+ less faceoffs. Defense is very important for a center, but so is putting up points, especially when you're a #1 center. Your stat that had him ranked 24th among centers in the league supports that he lacks pretty heavily in that area. He is a fringe top 5 center in the league, but is clearly not #1. That's all the argument was, and I'll leave it at that.
southernhawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: of champions, AL
Joined: 01.19.2012

Sep 4 @ 6:22 PM ET
http://www.espn.com/nhl/s...e-trophy-shutdown-machine
DPVA1097
Joined: 09.04.2016

Sep 4 @ 6:38 PM ET
Are you high? The Chicago Blackhawks are likely to miss the playoffs and Kruger is one of the worst centers? I guess that you're blogging skills are comparable to were your team is will finish in the standings. Seriously, this has to be the biggest crock of BS I have ever read on this blog site, and there's been alot of BS on here. Every year you guys and most of North America rag on the hawks, and yet every year they're a contender and their players are winning major awards. So tell me again, besides a couple of BS analytics and your horrible opinion, why is Kruger almost the worst 3rd line center, even though if you actually watch hawks games he plays 4C about 90% of the times. The bigger question though, please explain why the hawks are likely to miss playoffs? Also, list the teams that will make the playoffs because I have to see your joke of a prediction.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Sep 4 @ 6:42 PM ET
Are you high? The Chicago Blackhawks are likely to miss the playoffs and Kruger is one of the worst centers? I guess that you're blogging skills are comparable to were your team is will finish in the standings. Seriously, this has to be the biggest crock of BS I have ever read on this blog site, and there's been alot of BS on here. Every year you guys and most of North America rag on the hawks, and yet every year they're a contender and their players are winning major awards. So tell me again, besides a couple of BS analytics and your horrible opinion, why is Kruger almost the worst 3rd line center, even though if you actually watch hawks games he plays 4C about 90% of the times. The bigger question though, please explain why the hawks are likely to miss playoffs? Also, list the teams that will make the playoffs because I have to see your joke of a prediction.
- DPVA1097


Since you ask so nicely:

St. Louis
Nashville
Minnesota

Edmonton
San Jose
Calgary

Winnipeg
Dallas
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