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Forums :: Blog World :: James Tanner: PLUS/MINUS: Hall, Subban, Lucic, Polak, Panthers, Lightning, Coyotes etc.
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Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Jul 3 @ 2:29 PM ET
Did Tanner actually say that PK is superior defensively
- oilpatch



I wasn't responding to that, but I think so.
DoubleDown
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Not to point any fingers but Tyson Barrie has looked awful in the blue and white for the Leafs., QC
Joined: 07.28.2006

Jul 3 @ 2:30 PM ET
What I was saying is that without Price, they have a terrible team, as was evident when Price went down last year. Montreal fans can attempt to divert attention to the Oilers all they want (we know our team has sucked forever) but at least our GM is fixing some holes...
- laughs2907


Both GMs suck all right? Both organizations suck too. Edmonton is just in a better position because they happen to have been more pathetic. Congrats.
laughs2907
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Wuhan, China
Joined: 07.18.2006

Jul 3 @ 2:32 PM ET
Price is back, you said ouch about Weber...did you want the Habs to trade for Bishop?

Weber is as good as PK, unless the .845786543 shots per game difference is that important?

- Garnie


When you consider age and term, Montreal easily lost that trade, don't kid yourself... Weber is on the decline.
DoubleDown
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Not to point any fingers but Tyson Barrie has looked awful in the blue and white for the Leafs., QC
Joined: 07.28.2006

Jul 3 @ 2:32 PM ET
Did Tanner actually say that PK is superior defensively
- oilpatch


There's no point of view from Tanner that you can't get from a spreadsheet.
storm88
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Surrey, BC
Joined: 09.29.2011

Jul 3 @ 2:32 PM ET
If you guys really want to build thru the draft, you need to hire Kevin Lowe and dallas eakins
- oilpatch


or tambellini or macT or Kruger or any combo of any gm/coach in the last 10 years

wait, i think we've already had tambellini in the office.
laughs2907
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Wuhan, China
Joined: 07.18.2006

Jul 3 @ 2:34 PM ET
If you guys really want to build thru the draft, you need to hire Kevin Lowe and dallas eakins
- oilpatch


laughs2907
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Wuhan, China
Joined: 07.18.2006

Jul 3 @ 2:35 PM ET
Both GMs suck all right? Both organizations suck too. Edmonton is just in a better position because they happen to have been more pathetic. Congrats.
- DoubleDown


The tables are about to turn on that one...
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Jul 3 @ 2:38 PM ET
When you consider age and term, Montreal easily lost that trade, don't kid yourself... Weber is on the decline.
- laughs2907



Meh, I'd rather jerk off with a cheese grader than have to watch PK's antics every game. Pretty sure he had to go regardless of who they got back. But they needed a good D back and they got a pretty good D IMO, sure he might only have 3 or 4 years but the Habs won't be on the hook for anything if he has to retire and that will give them time to restock the cupboards a bit.

storm88
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Surrey, BC
Joined: 09.29.2011

Jul 3 @ 2:38 PM ET
You need a couples dirty (frank)ers on every team. You need to hit guys, make the D grip the stick a little tighter etc etc. You don't want 20 martins/Polaks but a couple won't hurt you.

Soon enough all the soft hearts will have no checking and no slappers rule and then even some of the top girls will be able to join the league. Yeah, sounds like a lot of fun.

- Garnie



Canucks needed to sign Martin.
Burrows/Martin/Dorsett = 9, 650, 000 cap hit
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Jul 3 @ 2:38 PM ET
The tables are about to turn on that one...
- laughs2907


Geez I hope so.
laughs2907
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Wuhan, China
Joined: 07.18.2006

Jul 3 @ 2:42 PM ET
Meh, I'd rather jerk off with a cheese grader than have to watch PK's antics every game. Pretty sure he had to go regardless of who they got back. But they needed a good D back and they got a pretty good D IMO, sure he might only have 3 or 4 years but the Habs won't be on the hook for anything if he has to retire and that will give them time to restock the cupboards a bit.


- Garnie


Cheese graters can feel pretty good if used correctly.
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Jul 3 @ 2:44 PM ET
Cheese graters can feel pretty good if used correctly.
- laughs2907





James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jul 3 @ 2:51 PM ET
James,

Open your mind here for a moment. Because I think this is where analytics shows you something that is simply not grounded in reality.

David Rundblad is not underrated. He is not overrated. To anyone who has watched him play, being given numerous second third and fourth chances in numerous organizations, he is just awful.

Rundblad is actually, meh, ok coming up the ice—albeit about as fast as a glacier. But he can pass the puck. And he can definitely fire it.

But that's where it ends.

He is horrible defending over 200 feet of ice, because he is so slow, and he is completely non-competitive.

When a power forward like a Ladd, or a Benn, or even a Doan sees him with the puck below the circles, it's like a shark attracted to blood. He will cough up the puck and give up on the play, often leading to goals, because he has the heart of a dog.

And this, while it shows up on the scoresheet as just a turnover and/or a goal against has a huge and bad psychological effect on the entire team.

So yeah, I heard all the pushback the last couple of years, "but he's +11, he has positive possession numbers."

To which I would reply, take a look at his zone starts, and who he's playing with, which was often Duncan Keith. because he needed sheltering big time.

Rundblad is, if anything, overrated by those who point to slices of analytics as proof he's anything more than an AHL-version of Sheldon Souray, Cam Barker or Andy Delmore.

Meaning, if you can dress a guy to just play the point on the power play, in that regard, he's a worthwhile player. But that is a big "if," and typically not a luxury a team can afford these days.

Otherwise, he blows.

- John Jaeckel


Man, you really hate Rundblad. Maybe he isn't great, but based on the numbers he puts up, I'd really like to see him get a chance playing some real minutes. There are so many players in the NHL who are bad and who get signed year after year that I just can't see why a guy who measures out as above average can't get a decent chance. A lot of it is that most teams won't even consider playing a puck mover on the bottom pairing.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jul 3 @ 2:51 PM ET
JVR, Marner, Komarov, Shoshnikov, Brown, Kapanen, Rychel, Leipsic, Lindberg, Hyman Timashov, Leivo, Bracco, Martin, Lupul, Michalek

Yeah, I'd say they have some options.
- James_Tanner


Future looks bright for sure.

How much are we betting the Leafs make the playoffs this year?

Case of our favorite beverages?

*you were too busy writing a new blog to respond : )

- Garnie


Do you really wanna bet against your favorite team?
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jul 3 @ 2:53 PM ET
The Schneider trade was almost like the Hall trade. We get a good player in return, but you kinda waited for ---- the 9th overall and? Larsson, and? If you do your research online you'll see why the Canucks traded Schneider. Or why Schneider asked to be traded. Or why a certain player got his "A" taken off his jersey. Just a terrible situation. The fact the Canucks ended moving Lou as well, but still have goaltending depth is pretty amazing.

Demko is the future.

- storm88



While I'd usually avoid paying big for a goalie, it seems that Corey Schneider might be the best goalie in the NHL, so in retrospect, getting 9th overall pick for him was a rip.
FLflames34
Calgary Flames
Location: ., HI
Joined: 02.26.2010

Jul 3 @ 2:54 PM ET
Man, you really hate Rundblad. Maybe he isn't great, but based on the numbers he puts up, I'd really like to see him get a chance playing some real minutes. There are so many players in the NHL who are bad and who get signed year after year that I just can't see why a guy who measures out as above average can't get a decent chance. A lot of it is that most teams won't even consider playing a puck mover on the bottom pairing.
- James_Tanner

Where is my HERO chart?
FLflames34
Calgary Flames
Location: ., HI
Joined: 02.26.2010

Jul 3 @ 2:55 PM ET
While I'd usually avoid paying big for a goalie, it seems that Corey Schneider might be the best goalie in the NHL, so in retrospect, getting 9th overall pick for him was a rip.
- James_Tanner



Best post you have made.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jul 3 @ 2:57 PM ET
You always claim to be willing to change your opinions when presented with new information so take a look at this article. It's not out to disprove "fancy" stats, quite the opposite actually, but it does give a pretty thoughtful explanation as to why some players can look so good according to analytics (Miller, Rundblad), yet be so bad in reality.


https://marshawned.wordpr...u-the-kevan-miller-story/

- Tweek


Good article, interesting points, though the critic in me isn't a fan of working backwards to get the answer you want.

That being said, I definitely agree there are times when stats could lead you astray and I think for sure you must use more than just a hero chart to make a good evaluation, so this isn't really new information to me.

But there are still biases against puck moving guys who aren't going to score enough to play top 4. When in doubt, go with the hacker like Polak. However, I believe if you gave all of Polak's ice time to Rundblad or Schultz you'd be a better team.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jul 3 @ 2:58 PM ET
Did Tanner actually say that PK is superior defensively
- oilpatch


Yes and this is an objective fact that isn't up for argument.
FLflames34
Calgary Flames
Location: ., HI
Joined: 02.26.2010

Jul 3 @ 2:59 PM ET
Yes and this is an objective fact that isn't up for argument.
- James_Tanner

Go Iceland
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jul 3 @ 3:00 PM ET
I did stop reading at PK is so much better defensively than Weber. lol you never played hockey did you?
- Habsody


Actually I did and you should be open to a little thing called reality my friend.
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Jul 3 @ 3:00 PM ET
Do you really wanna bet against your favorite team?
- James_Tanner



Not really, well maybe....I usually lose when I do.

Plus you've already backtracked when you said they'll probably get a 4th for Polak at the deadline, obviously meaning they won't be a playoff team. : )

LeftCoaster
Utah Hockey Club
Location: Glendale AZ
Joined: 07.03.2009

Jul 3 @ 3:01 PM ET
If you guys really want to build thru the draft, you need to hire Kevin Lowe and dallas eakins
- oilpatch

um ….. no thanks!
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Jul 3 @ 3:03 PM ET
Good article, interesting points, though the critic in me isn't a fan of working backwards to get the answer you want.

That being said, I definitely agree there are times when stats could lead you astray and I think for sure you must use more than just a hero chart to make a good evaluation, so this isn't really new information to me.

But there are still biases against puck moving guys who aren't going to score enough to play top 4. When in doubt, go with the hacker like Polak. However, I believe if you gave all of Polak's ice time to Rundblad or Schultz you'd be a better team.

- James_Tanner



Polak just helped his team get to the finals, give the big guy a break for a few hours
DutchCanSaveUs
Colorado Avalanche
Joined: 07.07.2013

Jul 3 @ 3:03 PM ET
You seriously over-value Landeskog.

Lol. Where has he been as 'Captain' this entire time? Duchene is the leader of our team.

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