>The numbers are beyond stiffling
>Doubtful Shaw will be giving any kind of discount
>Could see a CC/Shaw's rights package trade
>Would not want a crappy goalie coming back with any kind of cap hit
>Cap space will be gold for some time
>CC has been wonderful, but think he would even admit he got outplayed by Elliot in this year's playoff series
>To win without CC, the Hawks must regain their possession dominance game
>And Darling must be aggressive and confident -- thought Darling was pretty average this year -- tentative, deep in his net, and seldom poke-checked
>And if Darling wants too much $ next year -- find another goalie
- SnapitUpstairs

Agree on Darling. So who do you go out and get for the nets?

All I want is for Ladd to somehow be re upped and Matt Martin to be on the roster at the same time.




- mrpaulish

Martin is an RFA. OS him? Or trade for rights? OS not likely.

edit: my mistake on Martin. He is UFA. So what will he take?

JJ,

Your write-ups are always excellent, but this morning's post is just outstanding. I think you should keep the format with a "Rumors" and then "Opinion" section Great stuff!

As far as the Blackhawk's and this summer, I believe we are on the exact same page in assessing this team's ability to win a Stanley Cup in 2016/17.

Roster Holes:
2LW
4D
6D
Basically the entire bottom 4 forwards (Only Kruger+Desi are NHL quality bottom 6 players at this point)

That is A LOT to overcome, with a little less than $1mil in cap space to be allocated those vacant roster spots. I have been saying it since the day after Seabrook's double post and out in Game 7 in STL, the only way to make this team a real contender for next season is to trade away a big salary with an in-house replacement. While Darling is not Corey Crawford (yet), who was Corey Crawford before 2013? He was a career AHLer that single-handedly choked away the 2012 Phoenix series with two of the softest OT goals I can ever remember. 50 is a much better goalie now, but that is not the point. Darling saved Crow's behind in the Nashville series, and the Hawks didn't sign this Swedish guy to a 1-way contract to play in the AHL, IMO. Tough decisions have to be made, and not only is Crow the Hawks most expendable big cap hit, he is also the most valuable besides the 19,2,88,72.

The Hawks have to decide whether going into next season with essentially the same team that lost in Round 1...BUT without Ladd, without Shaw, without Weise, without TT and without Fleischmann. Anyone who thinks that roster has a legitimate shot at winning the Cup is just kidding themselves, IMO.

The only other alternative to trading Crow is to trade Anisimov for a young, ELC Top 4 Dman. The Hawks won 2 Cups (and arguably all 3 bc I wouldn't consider 2010 Sharp a true top 6 C) without a Top 6 quality center. Kane carried his line for 5 years, and with Panarin on his other wing, you could stick 2016 Handzus on the line and they would still be a threat on every shift. So, IMO, its either Crow or Anisimov....and maybe Kruger to save $2mil by signing a $1mil vet bottom 6 C. Should be interesting what Stan+Co decide to do....
- EnzoD

The only other alternative to trading Crow is to trade Anisimov for a young, ELC Top 4 Dman.

Exactly....Not based on any whispers but trading AA would be easier and less risky than Crawford. If the front office is fine with Shaw in that spot or at some point sooner than later Nick Schmaltz that could be the ticket.

JJ,

Your write-ups are always excellent, but this morning's post is just outstanding. I think you should keep the format with a "Rumors" and then "Opinion" section Great stuff!

As far as the Blackhawk's and this summer, I believe we are on the exact same page in assessing this team's ability to win a Stanley Cup in 2016/17.

Roster Holes:
2LW
4D
6D
Basically the entire bottom 4 forwards (Only Kruger+Desi are NHL quality bottom 6 players at this point)

That is A LOT to overcome, with a little less than $1mil in cap space to be allocated those vacant roster spots. I have been saying it since the day after Seabrook's double post and out in Game 7 in STL, the only way to make this team a real contender for next season is to trade away a big salary with an in-house replacement. While Darling is not Corey Crawford (yet), who was Corey Crawford before 2013? He was a career AHLer that single-handedly choked away the 2012 Phoenix series with two of the softest OT goals I can ever remember. 50 is a much better goalie now, but that is not the point. Darling saved Crow's behind in the Nashville series, and the Hawks didn't sign this Swedish guy to a 1-way contract to play in the AHL, IMO. Tough decisions have to be made, and not only is Crow the Hawks most expendable big cap hit, he is also the most valuable besides the 19,2,88,72.

The Hawks have to decide whether going into next season with essentially the same team that lost in Round 1...BUT without Ladd, without Shaw, without Weise, without TT and without Fleischmann. Anyone who thinks that roster has a legitimate shot at winning the Cup is just kidding themselves, IMO.

The only other alternative to trading Crow is to trade Anisimov for a young, ELC Top 4 Dman. The Hawks won 2 Cups (and arguably all 3 bc I wouldn't consider 2010 Sharp a true top 6 C) without a Top 6 quality center. Kane carried his line for 5 years, and with Panarin on his other wing, you could stick 2016 Handzus on the line and they would still be a threat on every shift. So, IMO, its either Crow or Anisimov....and maybe Kruger to save $2mil by signing a $1mil vet bottom 6 C. Should be interesting what Stan+Co decide to do....
- EnzoD

The only other alternative to trading Crow is to trade Anisimov for a young, ELC Top 4 Dman.

Exactly....Not based on any whispers but trading AA would be easier and less risky than Crawford. If the front office is fine with Shaw in that spot or at some point sooner than later Nick Schmaltz that could be the ticket.

My gut tells me that Mrazek is staying put in Detroit.
- EKB13

How many years are left on Jimmy Howard? If he has fewer years/dollars than Crow, would you make that trade and let Howard/Darling battle it out?

Your suggestion makes even less sense.

That means the acquiring team would need close to $10 mill in cap space available. Look at the list of teams with that type of coin available and then factor in Crawford has to agree to the trade.

As I said it will be difficult.

As far as Shaw....Unless the Hawks know a team is going to write a sheet for over $3.6 mill they have control of the negotiations. Shaw isn't arbitration eligible and his only leverage is an offer sheet. I think the Hawks pay Shaw Kruger money or close to it...But maybe they give him a one year deal with a raise and a wink, and then sign him later on this season to a bigger contract.

Otherwise if someone writes a huge offer sheet for Shaw, better off to take the 1st and 3rd rounder and then use the cap space to sign a UFA.
- Al

>Toronto, Ottawa, Vancouver, Edmonton -- I believe all have the cap space to do so
>But, to your point, spending to the cap vs the team's budget is another thing
>Shaw on a 1 year deal would make sense
>Is Crawford in total control of where he would go?
>Think all signs point to CC as gone -- you mentioned it -- CC has a "replacement" already on the roster
>If CC can block all trades, Hawks are in big $ trouble for quite some time

It's interesting you bring this up, since as you say, Saad, Sharp, and Oduya were still there in 2014 (WCF) and 2015 (Cup). Is this just a product of some aging players all throughout the lineup? Or is something else going on in that other teams have tactically adjusted to our system? You could see how players past their prime could affect this, but what do you do?
- DMChi2010

Great question, sir. Honestly the answer is out of my league, but:

Remember though those 5 on 5 possession numbers (Corsi %) went from 2nd best in the league in 13/14 and 14/15 to 15th last year. So indeed when Saad, Sharp and Oduya were there they were 2nd in the league. And what I read, before checking myself, that the 5 on 5 numbers dropped each successive year for 3 years is incorrect.

The big drop off came when they lost Saad, Sharp and Oduya.

The only other alternative to trading Crow is to trade Anisimov for a young, ELC Top 4 Dman.

Exactly....Not based on any whispers but trading AA would be easier and less risky than Crawford. If the front office is fine with Shaw in that spot or at some point sooner than later Nick Schmaltz that could be the ticket.
- Al

Bowman was after Anisimov for years I just don't see him being dealt.

I can see the comparison with Schneider and Crawford in a way, but Vancouver had to deal either Schneider or Luongo....they HAD to. They gave Schneider a big raise, but his contract was much less than Luongo's, The Canucks FO figured they would be able to trade Bobby Lu. When they couldn't deal him they dealt Schneider who was making only $4mill per at the time.

That's a situation more similar to Leddy being dumped because the Hawks had no other choice and Garth Snow being their to benefit while others didn't have the cap space.

So if you believe the Hawks have no choice but to deal Crawford NOW, then I can see the comparison, if not it isn't the same. Also, the Hawks need to find a club to absorb all or most of a Crawford's $6 million cap hit. In my view that will be much more difficult than trading a younger more affordable Schneider at the time.

I think it could be possible Crawford goes at some point, John's math is not much different than mine.....if not another player with around a $4 million cap hit will need to go....But I don't think Crawford goes now.
- Al

Wouldn't CCs winning pedigree offset some if not all the contract money?

Bowman was after Anisimov for years I just don't see him being dealt.
- Dabearshawks

Unfortunately, I agree.

For those of you who know the mechanics of playing the game better, is it possible for Anisimov to drastically improve his FO %? To me, if he can't do 50%, then he loses some of his usefulness to the possession game.

Would anyone here do a Seabrook for Trouba trade?
- Dannyboy

Chevy wouldn't....

The only other alternative to trading Crow is to trade Anisimov for a young, ELC Top 4 Dman.

Exactly....Not based on any whispers but trading AA would be easier and less risky than Crawford. If the front office is fine with Shaw in that spot or at some point sooner than later Nick Schmaltz that could be the ticket.
- Al

IMO, I think one of 15 or 50 needs to be moved to address the defense and overall team depth. Like someone here said earlier, Crow was outplayed by Brian Elliot. Vezina winner Braden Holtby was outplayed by rookie Matt Murray. Jonathan Quick was outplayed by Martin Jones (The apprentice dispatched the mentor ). What did all of those Veteran, High-Quality goalies have in common this spring? An incomplete defense core in front of them. Without Orpik the Caps D was a shell of itself. Same thing can be said of Oduya for the Hawks and Alec Martinez for the Kings. DEFENSE wins championships, IMO. Address 4D (and 2LW but that just seems impossible with the tight cap) by trading 50 or 15, or I don't like the Hawks chances next Spring....

Agree on Darling. So who do you go out and get for the nets?
- blackhawk24

>To me, goalies are like relief pitchers
>Ride them while they are hot, replace them when they are not
>Would not pay too much in $ and term for the position
>Would not build my team around one
>Key would be to have a goalie that does not give up softies on a regular basis (all goalies do give up a softie now and then)
>Would try to recapture the Hawks style of playing faster than everyone else and having the biscuit a lot more than the other team

How many years are left on Jimmy Howard? If he has fewer years/dollars than Crow, would you make that trade and let Howard/Darling battle it out?
- phantasmo

Howard has three seasons left at $5.3 million. As far as I'm concerned, I'd prefer to keep Crawford over trying to get Howard. The small cap savings isn't worth it.

If the cap settles at $73MM, here is how it can work:

Forwards
Toews 10,500,000
Kane 10,500,000
Hossa 5,275,000
AA 4,550,000
Ladd 4,000,000
Kruger 3,083,333
Shaw 2,500,000
Motte/Hartman 925,000
Panik 875,000
Panarin 812,500
Desi 800,000
Lundberg 692,500

$44,513,333

Seabrook 6,875,000
Keith 5,538,461
Hammer 4,100,000
TVR 825,000
Svedberg 750,000 (not on a two-way any more)
Kempny 700,000

$18,788,461

Crawford 6,000,000
Darling 587,500

$6,587,500

Overages for Scuds, Panarin, Rozy and Rundblad

$3,070,000

TOTAL $72,959,294

I might be dreaming on Shaw, Ladd, and the cap, but this lineup could work at $73MM

Wouldn't CCs winning pedigree offset some if not all the contract money?
- blackhawk24

Sure but it doesn't take away from the fact it will be very difficult and he needs to agree.

Crawford got his big contract for a few reasons....1st Bowman always liked him as did Waite even though he played almost 5 years in the AHL. He was a good soldier and stayed an extra year in the AHL basically because there was more wiggle room with Niemi's contract than his. Then he comes up and has gotten better every year and has won 2 Cups.

If Crawford wants to go he will if not I don't think they will ramrod a trade down his throat like they were able to do with Campbell.

At some point a player here could say NO, I'm not going to an also ran, figure out another way out of the box.

I believe the Hawks have taken calls on Crawford as JJ has said....When they actively shop him we will know because they need his permission to go anywhere....And agents let that stuff out of the bag.

Great entry today, JJ. It pretty much sums up the summer agenda and the legwork that goes into making the decisions.

I'm glad I'm not the one who has to decide who gets traded and who stays. I am bracing myself for the inevitable bad news, but hoping they can get some value.

I would like to think that Crawford would fetch a better return than Schneider did. This is a relatively cost controlled asset who has proven he can win and proven he can carry a team.

Anisimov would be a tough loss, also. Panarin gave a lot of credit to him for his role in making that line happen this past season.

The idea of acquiring a goaile in a Crawford deal (whether it be a Bernier, Pavelec) would be those guys have NHL experience (as a starter or backup) and on the last year of their deal. So the following year when a Panarin extension kicks in, the rest of their money will fall off. I don't think anyone ever said Bernier is/would be a CC "replacement" but is a guy that could play 30-35gms, and with a better team/D in front of him...can be respectable.
- PatShart

Yes, with a goalie coming back you want a guy who is off the books in one year. That's why I liked Mason, IMO you could make a deep run with him at 4.1 mil before he's off the books. But a poster showed that the Flyers are pretty deep at goalie prospects and PHI probably isn't a fit.

But just spitballing IF Bernier became a Hawk and beat out Darling for more starts, or they split starts, and Darling is the long term choice you'd ink him for less money over a 3-4 yr deal than if he took the #1 spot next year and won 38-40 games.

If the cap settles at $73MM, here is how it can work:

Forwards
Toews 10,500,000
Kane 10,500,000
Hossa 5,275,000
AA 4,550,000
Ladd 4,000,000
Kruger 3,083,333
Shaw 2,500,000
Motte/Hartman 925,000
Panik 875,000
Panarin 812,500
Desi 800,000
Lundberg 692,500

$44,513,333

Seabrook 6,875,000
Keith 5,538,461
Hammer 4,100,000
TVR 825,000
Svedberg 750,000 (not on a two-way any more)
Kempny 700,000

$18,788,461

Crawford 6,000,000
Darling 587,500

$6,587,500

Overages for Scuds, Panarin, Rozy and Rundblad

$3,070,000

TOTAL $72,959,294

I might be dreaming on Shaw, Ladd, and the cap, but this lineup could work at $73MM
- Return of the Roar

Up Ladd to 5.5

Trade Crawford

Sign Vet to back up Scotty D and then it can work, maybe


Probably have to make Shaw 3mm per

How many years are left on Jimmy Howard? If he has fewer years/dollars than Crow, would you make that trade and let Howard/Darling battle it out?
- phantasmo

Jimmy Howard has alot of Eddie Belfour in him. Can be lights out, but can come apart emotionally in the net too often.

The rumor has grown to Crosby and Ovi coming here too. Get it done Stan! (Red Font).
- HawkintheD

Also just heard from my top source that Gretzky and Lemieux are both willing to come out of retirement and sign cheap Cap friendly 1 year contracts to go after a Cup. Source says CHI is going hard after both. Deals could be finalized later today I'm told. Stay tuned.

Nice work JJ .Always good to have a ear to the track .I will hate to see Crow go ,it is a giant gamble .But maybe it is Darling time ,he has paid his dues .And has been mentioned here by a few ,he seems to play better when given the ball and allowed to run with it . If they could get a top 10 pick this year that would be huge ,with out taking much salary back could be a big win . Always great to have up to date news thanks JJ

Good morning....

I think Johns' statement is dead on regarding the illusion that this upcoming team's was just as good as a cup winning team. Not buying it.

This team probably won't be as good on a paper as the team that finished off the playoffs. You are essentially losing Ladd and Weisse, Teuvo, and possibly Shaw and/or Crawford or another piece. So far you have retained Panik, and signed Kempy. So on D, you may be a step better, but a step better from awful isn't good enough.

The problem remains as Bowman has to re-up vital parts to his team, he shrinks the flexibility in regards to cap space he has to supply the team and coaching staff with ample depth players. We've seen when this team wins cups, the 3rd line and depth is awful good. that isn't the case right now, and really...Bowman and his scouts are going to have to hit homeruns on Euroopean free agents and college UFAS who can step in the NOW and provide that depth, while being on the cheap.

the only what that changes is trading another high salaried player away, OR having your top stars, f/d/g carry you each and every win in the playoffs, which rarely, if ever, happens.

I agree with John......the most difficult offseason this team has faced. Even more so then 2010 because even after salary dumps the cap flexcibility still isnt' remotely enough.....

And...imagine that overage next year AND a 5+ million AAV bump to Panarin on top of it......that has to keep Bowman and Al up late at night in the dark......

Excellent blog JJ.

I really don't understand the why some are extremely fearful that moving Crawford will mean this team plummets. Pretty sure a no name goalie in '10 led us to a cup. What has he done since? Dittly squat. If moving Crow means you get another solid D and maybe a bottom 6 guy or a fringe top 6 LW with speed to play with Toews and vet 5/6 D man I don't really see the issue. The '10 D core was not anything to write home about and Niemi led us. I'd say that was an awfully big goalie gamble that year.

It is about the money. You have to decide where to allocate your limited funds. Somewhere on the roster you will have to take some gambles. The salary cap forces you to do that.

Currently the positions being gambled on are your #4 D and Toews' LW and probably 2 spots in your bottom 6. That is a lot of holes. Hossa is also another year older too (father time always wins).

Standing pat with this roster means a 1st or 2nd round exit again. Crawford's play, despite being a top 5-10 goalie, can't cure all of those holes. I think if this team wants to make another deep run in the next year or two, they have to strongly consider moving Crawford. Stan is not going to pull a #4D and another top 6 LW from the KHL or Europe for cheap. If he does he and the scouting department should get front office of the century.
- bhawks2241

Just referring to the bolded you have to concede that that 2010 team Nieme won a cup with was a pure powerhouse. After that all cups were won with elite goalies recognizing we'll have to wait to see if Murray is indeed elite.

Nice work JJ .Always good to have a ear to the track .I will hate to see Crow go ,it is a giant gamble .But maybe it is Darling time ,he has paid his dues .And has been mentioned here by a few ,he seems to play better when given the ball and allowed to run with it . If they could get a top 10 pick this year that would be huge ,with out taking much salary back could be a big win . Always great to have up to date news thanks JJ
- oldduffman

Paid his dues? A grand total of 43 NHL games in two seasons and he is ready to replace Crawford?

Sample size not big enough.