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Forums :: Blog World :: Jason Lewis: The Los Angeles Kings Departed from a Plan of Success in 2015-16
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hiway39
Season Ticket Holder
Los Angeles Kings
Location: San Francisco, CA
Joined: 03.01.2010

May 3 @ 8:03 AM ET


Our lineups for the next two years would look like this:

2016-17 lineup ($73.6M cap hit)
Lucic-Kopitar-Brown (Lucic $5.75M cap hit)
Pearson-Carter-Toffoli
Mersch-Komarov-Lewis (No, I didn't forget King. He gets traded for futures.)
Clifford-Andreoff-Nolan
Shore/Dowd

FA Defenseman/Doughty ($3.75M to FA defense)
Muzzin/Martinez
Scuderi/Greene
Forbort (Forbort over Gravel because of waiver exemption, Gravel first call-up)

Quick
Budaj

2017-18 lineup ($73.6M cap hit)
Lucic-Kopitar-Toffoli ($6.25M to Toffoli)
Pearson-Carter-Kempe ($3.25M to Pearson)
Mersch-Komarov-Lewis
Clifford-Andreoff-Nolan
Shore/Dowd

FA Defenseman/Doughty
Muzzin/Martinez
Forbort/Greene
Gravel

Quick
FA Goalie ($1M)

- tkecanuck341


Lewis is a UFA this year, and likely going to command a raise of sorts, no?
CrownedKing
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Garden Grove, CA
Joined: 01.06.2015

May 3 @ 11:38 AM ET
Thank you. This was pretty much what I've been saying since the Philly trade and the end of our dominant start to the season and the start of our .500 play to close it out. DL or DS or both wanted to recreate 2012 and 2014 and reached to make it happen, ignoring the strengths of the current roster (at the time) and turning to players who in their mind reminded them of past pieces. Unacceptable. DL has faltered heavily since the 2014 cup, starting with the absurdity of not buying out Richards(but I'll let that rest). This mortgaging of the future for mediocre rentals/vets when you have pieces in the system must stop immediately. The damage may already be done though.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

May 3 @ 12:10 PM ET
Lewis is a UFA this year, and likely going to command a raise of sorts, no?
- hiway39


Yea, I slotted him in at $2.25M. There's still a little extra money available if he wants a little more.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

May 3 @ 12:19 PM ET
Correction: Sekera, Versteeg, and...1 playoff win.

I think what bites the most about these combined trades is the timing. In 14/15, the Kings didn't make the playoffs but traded for Sekera and then couldn't re-sign him before he joined the Oilers. Had the Kings kept McKeown and that first rounder, perhaps they could have put together a better package for a defenseman at the deadline this season. Not saying it would have made a huge difference, but if DL had more chips he might have done better than Scuds.

- Only_A_Ladd


Very true.

It's less about the prospects themselves but the inability to turn those long-term sacrifices into any short term gains that really hurts.
masterhans
Los Angeles Kings
Location: alta loma, CA
Joined: 02.22.2011

May 3 @ 12:26 PM ET
I don't disagree with having to get rid of Gaborik and Brown. Gaborik has some trade value, but you can't get rid of Brown via trade unless you're willing to take on some dead salary in return or package him up with more valuable prospects. We can't afford to to take back any salary, so trading Brown would probably cost us Kempe, which obviously isn't an option.

If I were DL, I'd try to package up Gaborik with McNabb, and trade for a 3C like Leo Komarov from Toronto. Toronto has said that they're willing to take on cap unfriendly contracts as long as there's some young talent or draft picks coming back the other way. Toronto is set at center with Kadri, Nylander, and now Auston Matthews, so Komarov is expendable. Gaborik gives them some veteran leadership and McNabb gives them some NHL ready defensive talent. Komarov only has two years left on his contract at a cap friendly $2.9M, and his contract will be off the books before Doughty's new contract goes into effect. By that time, players like Dowd, Shore, and/or Kempe should be ready to take over at 3C.

With Gaborik off the books this off-season, Lombardi has some space to go out and sign a top pairing free agent defenseman to play alongside Drew Doughty. The contract can't be for longer than 3 years, and can't be more than about $4.75M. This likely keeps us out of the Keith Yandle sweepstakes, but will let us pursue some veteran options like Dan Hamhuis or Brian Campbell. They don't need to be franchise defensemen, but they need to be capable two-way type defensemen capable of playing top-pairing minutes.

According to expansion rumors from a few days ago, when Las Vegas comes into the season next July, teams will be required to protect players with NMC, but players with NTCs will be able to left unprotected. This is likely how we'll have to get rid of Brown. My guess is that he becomes the first captain of the Las Vegas Aces.

Our lineups for the next two years would look like this:

2016-17 lineup ($73.6M cap hit)
Lucic-Kopitar-Brown (Lucic $5.75M cap hit)
Pearson-Carter-Toffoli
Mersch-Komarov-Lewis (No, I didn't forget King. He gets traded for futures.)
Clifford-Andreoff-Nolan
Shore/Dowd

FA Defenseman/Doughty ($3.75M to FA defense)
Muzzin/Martinez
Scuderi/Greene
Forbort (Forbort over Gravel because of waiver exemption, Gravel first call-up)

Quick
Budaj

2017-18 lineup ($73.6M cap hit)
Lucic-Kopitar-Toffoli ($6.25M to Toffoli)
Pearson-Carter-Kempe ($3.25M to Pearson)
Mersch-Komarov-Lewis
Clifford-Andreoff-Nolan
Shore/Dowd

FA Defenseman/Doughty
Muzzin/Martinez
Forbort/Greene
Gravel

Quick
FA Goalie ($1M)

- tkecanuck341

helm from detroit is a ufa center at 2.5 per. thought maybe he would be considered
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

May 3 @ 12:33 PM ET
helm from detroit is a ufa center at 2.5 per. thought maybe he would be considered
- masterhans


We could sign him, but that does nothing for cap relief for this season. If we sign Helm, we keep an extra $5M on the books that could be used to either Lucic or a defenseman to play with Doughty. Trading Gaborik and McNabb for a 3C makes more sense.
masterhans
Los Angeles Kings
Location: alta loma, CA
Joined: 02.22.2011

May 3 @ 12:46 PM ET
We could sign him, but that does nothing for cap relief for this season. If we sign Helm, we keep an extra $5M on the books that could be used to either Lucic or a defenseman to play with Doughty. Trading Gaborik and McNabb for a 3C makes more sense.
- tkecanuck341

we could trade a nice package for a #3 defenseman
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

May 3 @ 12:52 PM ET
we could trade a nice package for a #3 defenseman
- masterhans


We need a #2 defenseman. We are already set for our bottom pairings. The main concern is that we need the contract to be for 3 years (expires when Doughty's extension is due) and for less than $4M. That slims down the trade targets substantially. Free agency is a better way to go for this spot.

It would likely cost upwards of $3.5M to pry Helm away from Detroit, and the Kings just don't have the cap space.
Jason Lewis
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Joined: 07.17.2013

May 3 @ 2:55 PM ET
We need a #2 defenseman. We are already set for our bottom pairings. The main concern is that we need the contract to be for 3 years (expires when Doughty's extension is due) and for less than $4M. That slims down the trade targets substantially. Free agency is a better way to go for this spot.

It would likely cost upwards of $3.5M to pry Helm away from Detroit, and the Kings just don't have the cap space.

- tkecanuck341


Jake Muzzin says hi!

I'd say a 4 defenseman is reasonable to try and acquire, depending on how you feel about Brayden McNabb.
masterhans
Los Angeles Kings
Location: alta loma, CA
Joined: 02.22.2011

May 3 @ 3:00 PM ET
Jake Muzzin says hi!

I'd say a 4 defenseman is reasonable to try and acquire, depending on how you feel about Brayden McNabb.

- Jason_Lewis

yeah a righy making 4 mil (hamonic?) muzz dewey and martinez puts mcnab at 5-6 with greene forbort etc please!
masterhans
Los Angeles Kings
Location: alta loma, CA
Joined: 02.22.2011

May 3 @ 3:02 PM ET
Jake Muzzin says hi!

I'd say a 4 defenseman is reasonable to try and acquire, depending on how you feel about Brayden McNabb.

- Jason_Lewis

trouba?
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

May 3 @ 3:06 PM ET
Jake Muzzin says hi!

I'd say a 4 defenseman is reasonable to try and acquire, depending on how you feel about Brayden McNabb.

- Jason_Lewis


I'm not convinced that Muzzin is a #2 defenseman. I know he's a advanced stats darling, but he just doesn't fit with Doughty. Besides, I liked the pairing of Muzzin and Martinez from this season. Keeping them together gives us one of the best second pairings in the league.

I don't mind McNabb. He'll likely turn into a top 4 defenseman in the next few seasons. However, I don't think he's a top-pairing defenseman either, and he'd want to much money to play on the 3rd pairing. My solution to the Kings roster woes involve the immediate departure of McNabb and Gaborik. After Scuderi and Greene depart, I'm expecting a 3rd pairing of Forbort and Gravel. If we expect to compete long term, we have to make use of young, relatively inexpensive talent.
Jason Lewis
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Joined: 07.17.2013

May 3 @ 3:14 PM ET
I'm not convinced that Muzzin is a #2 defenseman. I know he's a advanced stats darling, but he just doesn't fit with Doughty. Besides, I liked the pairing of Muzzin and Martinez from this season. Keeping them together gives us one of the best second pairings in the league.

I don't mind McNabb. He'll likely turn into a top 4 defenseman in the next few seasons. However, I don't think he's a top-pairing defenseman either, and he'd want to much money to play on the 3rd pairing. My solution to the Kings roster woes involve the immediate departure of McNabb and Gaborik. After Scuderi and Greene depart, I'm expecting a 3rd pairing of Forbort and Gravel. If we expect to compete long term, we have to make use of young, relatively inexpensive talent.

- tkecanuck341


Well, being a good #2 doesn't mean having to fit on the top pair.

Muzzin stands alone pretty well, and the Muzzin Martinez pairing got the most difficult minutes of any Kings pairing this season and did quite well with them. With a good #2 it's like having a good 2C, you can disperse minutes better, and give more favorable matchups to your 1C or No. 1 D.
MikeOxbyg
Los Angeles Kings
Location: CA
Joined: 02.28.2011

May 3 @ 3:19 PM ET
I am pretty much inagreement with thecannuck on most matters here,

Brown must go,

McNaab should go,

and I would be ok with Gaborik being traded.

Other expendables: King, Andreoff, Nolan

Not sold on Schenn, I like Gravel over Forbort

Muzz and Amart are a good second pair and agree there needs to be someone acquired to pair with DD.

The forward lines are a mess and I have lost my confidence in DS to make good lines

Osprey
Joined: 11.10.2015

May 3 @ 4:25 PM ET
The fact that Muzzin is the team's #2 after Doughty is part of the problem, IMO. Consider what many say is the best defense corps in the league: Nashville. They have a player that is identical to Muzzin in almost every way, Ekholm, playing as their #4 defenseman. Take away Josi and Ellis and imagine Nashville's defense as Weber followed by Ekholm. Is it still one of the best defense corps in the league? Absolutely not, yet that's what LA runs with. It's no wonder that LA's defense has no stability and is constantly adding new defensemen to fix it. At what point do you finally stop and wonder if, since all of these different players rotating through the #4-6 spots aren't correcting the defense issue, perhaps the issue lies with the #2-3 spots?

Here's the problem, IMO. Doughty is a two-way defenseman, which is fantastic to have as your #1, but the team's #2 and #3 are both offensive defensemen. What LA desperately needs in their top 3 (and, ideally, as the #2) is a defensive defenseman, like SJ has with Vlasic. LA won Cups with Scuderi and Mitchell in their top 3s. Now, they have no one like that there. Doughty is surrounded by offensive defensemen, so it's no wonder that he carries a heavier defensive burden and plays almost 30 minutes and the team has lost the defensive stinginess that used to be their hallmark.

LA could really use their own Vlasic or a younger Mitchell to come in and be that #2 to relieve Doughty, stabilize the defense and push Muzzin and Martinez into the #3/4 spots that they're more suited for. I think that Lombardi hoped to get that in McNabb, but that hasn't worked out as well or as quickly. If he improves or the organization strikes gold with a young defenseman in the system (which will get harder if they continue to trade away candidates), then Muzzin and Martinez might then be pushed down to #4/5 and then you'd have an extremely solid defense corps to rival the ones that they took to two Cups.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

May 3 @ 4:25 PM ET
Well, being a good #2 doesn't mean having to fit on the top pair.

Muzzin stands alone pretty well, and the Muzzin Martinez pairing got the most difficult minutes of any Kings pairing this season and did quite well with them. With a good #2 it's like having a good 2C, you can disperse minutes better, and give more favorable matchups to your 1C or No. 1 D.

- Jason_Lewis


That's what I mean when I say #2. Someone to play top pairing minutes with Doughty. Right now, Doughty has several different line partners throughout any given game, depending on the on-ice situation. That needs to change. Whoever it is doesn't need to be the all around dominant defenseman that Doughty is, but needs to be able to play all of the even strength minutes that Doughty does every night (22 minutes this season), plus a couple more on special teams. This would allow us to get Doughty's minutes back in check rather than having to play him 30+ minutes every game.

They tried out McNabb there for most of the season, and he really held the top pairing back this season. It's part of the reason that M&M got the hard match-ups. If we could bring back 2012 Willie Mitchell , then most of our defensive woes would be solved. Sadly, we can't, so we'll need to go out and acquire that presence from elsewhere.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

May 3 @ 4:26 PM ET
The fact that Muzzin is the team's #2 after Doughty is part of the problem, IMO. Consider what many say is the best defense corps in the league: Nashville. They have a player that is identical to Muzzin in almost every way, Ekholm, playing as their #4 defenseman. Take away Josi and Ellis and imagine Nashville's defense as Weber followed by Ekholm. Is it still one of the best defense corps in the league? Absolutely not, yet that's what LA runs with. It's no wonder that LA's defense has no stability and is constantly adding new defensemen to fix it. At what point do you finally stop and wonder if, since all of these different players rotating through the #4-6 spots aren't correcting the defense issue, perhaps the issue lies with the #2-3 spots?

Here's the problem, IMO. Doughty is a two-way defenseman, which is fantastic to have as your #1, but the team's #2 and #3 are both offensive defensemen. What LA desperately needs in their top 3 (and, ideally, as the #2) is a defensive defenseman, like SJ has with Vlasic. LA won Cups with Scuderi and Mitchell in their top 3s. Now, they have no one like that there. Doughty is surrounded by offensive defensemen, so it's no wonder that he carries a heavier defensive burden and plays almost 30 minutes and the team has lost the defensive stinginess that used to be their hallmark.

LA could really use their own Vlasic or a younger Mitchell to come in and be that #2 to relieve Doughty, stabilize the defense and push Muzzin and Martinez into the #3/4 spots that they're more suited for. I think that Lombardi hoped to get that in McNabb, but that hasn't worked out as well or as quickly. If he improves or the organization strikes gold with a young defenseman in the system (which will get harder if they continue to trade away candidates), then Muzzin and Martinez might then be pushed down to #4/5 and then you'd have an extremely solid defense corps to rival the ones that they took to two Cups.

- Osprey


I absolutely hate to say this, but I agree with Osprey.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

May 3 @ 4:37 PM ET
I am pretty much inagreement with thecannuck on most matters here,

Brown must go,

McNaab should go,

and I would be ok with Gaborik being traded.

Other expendables: King, Andreoff, Nolan

Not sold on Schenn, I like Gravel over Forbort

Muzz and Amart are a good second pair and agree there needs to be someone acquired to pair with DD.

The forward lines are a mess and I have lost my confidence in DS to make good lines

- MikeOxbyg


I agree with most of this.

I like Gravel over Forbort as well, but Forbort will get the call-up first because he's no longer waiver exempt, while Gravel still has one year left of exemption. When Scuderi's contract ends after next season, Gravel can be the next call-up. Schenn isn't coming back unless they expect Greene to be out for a long time.

I don't agree with Andreoff or Nolan being expendable. In fact, I really like our 4th line of Clifford, Andreoff, and Nolan. They bring a hard-hitting, tough to play against, possession heavy, and defensively responsible game for slightly over a $3M combined cap hit. Having this inexpensive option allows us to allocate more money to players like Lucic, Toffoli, Pearson, and Doughty.

I don't mind Dwight King, but with our immediate cap issues, I think Mersch can bring the same game on the 3rd line for less than half the price. I think he'd net a decent return for futures in a trade, so I think he should be traded.
Jason Lewis
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Joined: 07.17.2013

May 3 @ 5:46 PM ET
The fact that Muzzin is the team's #2 after Doughty is part of the problem, IMO. Consider what many say is the best defense corps in the league: Nashville. They have a player that is identical to Muzzin in almost every way, Ekholm, playing as their #4 defenseman. Take away Josi and Ellis and imagine Nashville's defense as Weber followed by Ekholm. Is it still one of the best defense corps in the league? Absolutely not, yet that's what LA runs with. It's no wonder that LA's defense has no stability and is constantly adding new defensemen to fix it. At what point do you finally stop and wonder if, since all of these different players rotating through the #4-6 spots aren't correcting the defense issue, perhaps the issue lies with the #2-3 spots?

Here's the problem, IMO. Doughty is a two-way defenseman, which is fantastic to have as your #1, but the team's #2 and #3 are both offensive defensemen. What LA desperately needs in their top 3 (and, ideally, as the #2) is a defensive defenseman, like SJ has with Vlasic. LA won Cups with Scuderi and Mitchell in their top 3s. Now, they have no one like that there. Doughty is surrounded by offensive defensemen, so it's no wonder that he carries a heavier defensive burden and plays almost 30 minutes and the team has lost the defensive stinginess that used to be their hallmark.

LA could really use their own Vlasic or a younger Mitchell to come in and be that #2 to relieve Doughty, stabilize the defense and push Muzzin and Martinez into the #3/4 spots that they're more suited for. I think that Lombardi hoped to get that in McNabb, but that hasn't worked out as well or as quickly. If he improves or the organization strikes gold with a young defenseman in the system (which will get harder if they continue to trade away candidates), then Muzzin and Martinez might then be pushed down to #4/5 and then you'd have an extremely solid defense corps to rival the ones that they took to two Cups.

- Osprey



A young version (Talking 25-28) of Willie Mitchell would be really really nice for L.A. to have at the moment. Very true.
Regulate
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Joined: 07.15.2009

May 3 @ 8:06 PM ET
A lot of people underestimate how good a player Nic Dowd is. If given a legit shot next year, he should be our 3C. He is a big game player right now in the playoffs too.
Jason Lewis
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Joined: 07.17.2013

May 3 @ 9:25 PM ET
A lot of people underestimate how good a player Nic Dowd is. If given a legit shot next year, he should be our 3C. He is a big game player right now in the playoffs too.
- Regulate


I do not disagree.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

May 3 @ 9:48 PM ET
A lot of people underestimate how good a player Nic Dowd is. If given a legit shot next year, he should be our 3C. He is a big game player right now in the playoffs too.
- Regulate


The AHL is not the NHL. Linden Vey, Nick Shore, Jordan Weal, Bud Holloway, Pavel Rosa, and others all demolished the AHL, and never really transitioned into quality NHL talent. Dowd might be the 3C of the future, but he should spend a season as the Kings' 13th forward before he's handed the Reigns (sic).

In other words, we have no idea how good of a player Nic Dowd is, because he's only played a couple NHL games so far in his career.

Also, using in-house talent does nothing to solve our cap issues for this season. Having Dowd take over does nothing to move Gaborik's contract.
KINGS67
Season Ticket Holder
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Rolling Hills Estates, CA
Joined: 01.29.2010

May 4 @ 2:32 PM ET
I am pretty much inagreement with thecannuck on most matters here,

Brown must go,

McNaab should go,

and I would be ok with Gaborik being traded.

Other expendables: King, Andreoff, Nolan

Not sold on Schenn, I like Gravel over Forbort

Muzz and Amart are a good second pair and agree there needs to be someone acquired to pair with DD.

The forward lines are a mess and I have lost my confidence in DS to make good lines

- MikeOxbyg


KINGS67
Season Ticket Holder
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Rolling Hills Estates, CA
Joined: 01.29.2010

May 4 @ 2:52 PM ET
A young version (Talking 25-28) of Willie Mitchell would be really really nice for L.A. to have at the moment. Very true.
- Jason_Lewis

Trouba
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