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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Cleanout Day Musings
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WhirlingDervish
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "Make The Flyers Great Again", PA
Joined: 02.01.2016

Apr 26 @ 2:13 PM ET
but also you can't expect them to hit on every prospect. having MDZ, Gudas, and Ghost up now, can alleviate the time you have with some of the prospects in order not to rush them. from what i see and read i feel like sanheim may need another year, same with morin, and hagg just hasnt taken his game to that next level yet. provorov i believe is ready to make the jump and ive heard that myers' game has taken incredible leaps. he may need a year or two but ive heard his progression is almost sanheim-esque. its an exciting time, but gudas should definitely be in their plans, at least for the next 2-3 years.

Myers will stay in Juniors, Haag and Morin need another year in AHL and Sanheim needs at least one to refine his game for the NHL level (according to Bill). SO the only potential up grade for this D is IF Provorov makes the jump.

They better have Gudas in their long term plans...

Hopefully Hextall has a trick or two up his sleeve to help out the blue line in the off season
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Apr 26 @ 2:18 PM ET
I really like Brown. But I think we would have to move up.
- hereticpride


He was terrific at the u18s. A couple months ago he may have been available at 15-17, but he is peaking at the right time, showing his potential. He could go well within the top ten, and that's unlikely we trade up that far, if Hexy even trades up.

I will say this about Brown: his combination of vision and passing ability could be elite as a big man. I think his skating is a touch overrated, but it's mostly in terms of burst and keeping his feet moving...which would probably help him use his good shot more. At speed, he's very good (not unlike a slightly better skating Coots). It's not really a concern, maybe strength fixes it. I have one concern about him, and it's I'm not sure his 200 ft game is good enough to be the next Getzlaf/Thornton. It's not bad or anything, but it's something that could separate him from being a 1C vs. a 2C, if it improves. He has a boatload of skill though. Size and skill package? He's it.
Mordecai
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: not very poggers
Joined: 08.27.2015

Apr 26 @ 2:20 PM ET
He was terrific at the u18s. A couple months ago he may have been available at 15-17, but he is peaking at the right time, showing his potential. He could go well within the top ten, and that's unlikely we trade up that far, if Hexy even trades up.

I will say this about Brown: his combination of vision and passing ability could be elite as a big man. I think his skating is a touch overrated, but it's mostly in terms of burst and keeping his feet moving...which would probably help him use his good shot more. At speed, he's very good (not unlike a slightly better skating Coots). It's not really a concern, maybe strength fixes it. I have one concern about him, and it's I'm not sure his 200 ft game is good enough to be the next Getzlaf/Thornton. It's not bad or anything, but it's something that could separate him from being a 1C vs. a 2C. He has a boatload of skill though. Size and skill package? He's it.

- Mononoke


What do you think about Keller?

I'm expecting us to move up in some fashion. Hopefully for a C.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Apr 26 @ 2:24 PM ET
There will be two rookies on the blue line when camp breaks.
- mayorofangrytown


Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Apr 26 @ 2:28 PM ET
What do you think about Keller?

I'm expecting us to move up in some fashion. Hopefully for a C.

- Mordecai


What do I think about Keller?

Everyday I rave about him here. On my own informal first round draft board (for fun), I have him 4/5 with Dubois. And if he slips to around 10+, which is very possible with how loaded the top 10 is and how many teams need d men and because he's a small 5'10", I would trade up for him in a heartbeat. I managed to watch him once in his season, but I saw every game U.S. played in u18, and he blew my mind. Everything scouts wrote matched up. I had a similar reaction to watching him that I did to Provorov last year. I just had a gut reaction: kid will be a star, and he's everything they need.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Apr 26 @ 2:28 PM ET
Myers will stay in Juniors, Haag and Morin need another year in AHL and Sanheim needs at least one to refine his game for the NHL level (according to Bill). SO the only potential up grade for this D is IF Provorov makes the jump.
- WhirlingDervish


Yes.
Winning
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Put in Matt Read
Joined: 03.29.2011

Apr 26 @ 2:31 PM ET
trade for mcdonugh
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Apr 26 @ 2:35 PM ET
Yes.
- Tomahawk


I think Morin will be up by the deadline, or earlier if Schultz or Gudas gets hurt.

Hextall promoted Ghost after 21 total AHL games when Streit got hurt. I think he'll be ready to promote Morin after 100+.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

Apr 26 @ 2:35 PM ET
At 18 I think Jones, Bellows, Keller and Brown will be around there.

If they did trade up I would target Dubois. Not sure where he goes.

My order if at 18:

Max Jones
Keiffer Bellows
Logan Brown
Clayton Keller

Move up option: Dubois
Pelle31Forever
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.20.2014

Apr 26 @ 2:35 PM ET
Dave Isaac and Sam Carchidi both tweeting Schenn wants to go long term and be with this team
- arichardson22


Define long term
Winning
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Put in Matt Read
Joined: 03.29.2011

Apr 26 @ 2:36 PM ET
At 18 I think Jones, Bellows, Keller and Brown will be around there.

If they did trade up I would target Dubois. Not sure where he goes.

My order if at 18:

Max Jones
Keiffer Bellows
Logan Brown
Clayton Keller

Move up option: Dubois

- J35Bacher

logan brown is top 10
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Apr 26 @ 2:37 PM ET

- Feanor

Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Apr 26 @ 2:37 PM ET
Define long term
- Pelle31Forever


Going in to the next decade.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Apr 26 @ 2:39 PM ET
Define long term
- Pelle31Forever

5 yrs plus
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Apr 26 @ 2:40 PM ET
I think Morin will be up by the deadline, or earlier if Schultz or Gudas gets hurt.

Hextall promoted Ghost after 21 total AHL games when Streit got hurt. I think he'll be ready to promote Morin after 100+.

- Feanor


When I saw Morin (not much), he was good in the d-zone, had good gap control, but was a little panicky with the puck and needs to make decisions quicker. Not sure it helped that the forwards weren't always a lot of help and that Alt may have worse puck skills than Morin. I don't believe he gets called up before you said, but I would like to see a Moron-Sondheim pairing. Wouldn't surprise me to see him magically improve next year.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

Apr 26 @ 2:42 PM ET
logan brown is top 10
- Winning



My top ten:

Tor: Matthews
EDM: Laine
VAN: Puljujarvi
CBS: Chychrun
CGY: Tkachuck
WPG: Dubois
AZ: Nylander
BUF: Bean
MON: Sergachev
COL: Juolevi


Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Apr 26 @ 2:42 PM ET
Define long term
- Pelle31Forever


Marriage
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Apr 26 @ 2:42 PM ET
When I saw Morin (not much), he was good in the d-zone, had good gap control, but was a little panicky with the puck and needs to make decisions quicker. Not sure it helped that the forwards weren't always a lot of help and that Alt may have worse puck skills than Morin. I don't believe he gets called up before you said, but I would like to see a Moron-Sondheim pairing. Wouldn't surprise me to see him magically improve next year.
- Mononoke

who is this moron guy we draft i'm intrigued
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Apr 26 @ 2:43 PM ET
When I saw Morin (not much), he was good in the d-zone, had good gap control, but was a little panicky with the puck and needs to make decisions quicker. Not sure it helped that the forwards weren't always a lot of help and that Alt may have worse puck skills than Morin. I don't believe he gets called up before you said, but I would like to see a Moron-Sondheim pairing.
- Mononoke



PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Apr 26 @ 2:44 PM ET

- Feanor


I had no idea Hakstol was capable of smiling.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Apr 26 @ 2:44 PM ET
Let's put it this way.

Lucic and players like him (Hartnell) have this kind of mold

pesky
role player and pesky
first liner for a few seasons and pesky
role player and pesky
pesky/washed up/gone pretty quick by this point. The dropoff is usually sharp.

That's absolutely helpful. Everyone hates a Lucic in his prime, but everyone also wants one. That being said, I'd rather have a later half first round pick as a forward put up 5+ 60 point seasons as a top 6 guy.

In short, reliability would be nice in the first round, as opposed to flash in the pan-esque

- Giroux_Is_God


Expecting a guy in the bottom half of the first round to have 5+ 60-point seasons seems high expectations. I went back to the 2005 draft and listed the "big name" forward picks in the back half of the first (didn't do the last 3 years, early to tell). Some of the bigger forward names:

2005: Oshie (24)
2006: Giroux (22)
2007: Pacioretty (22)
2008: Eberle (22)
2009: Kreider (19), Johansson (24)
2010: Tarasenko (16), Kuznetsov (26)
2012: Hertl (17), Teravainen (18)

That's it. 10 players in 8 years. Obviously you go for it, but it's a longshot.
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Apr 26 @ 2:45 PM ET
who is this moron guy we draft i'm intrigued
- 2Real


Not Carson Wentz: 4.0 GPA in Phys. Ed.

jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Apr 26 @ 2:46 PM ET
I had no idea Hakstol was capable of smiling.
- PLindbergh31


Hextall was informing him of the VLC trade.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Apr 26 @ 2:46 PM ET
Not Carson Wentz: 4.0 GPA in Phys. Ed.
- Mononoke


I hear he's well spoken.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Apr 26 @ 2:47 PM ET
Expecting a guy in the bottom half of the first round to have 5+ 60-point seasons seems high expectations. I went back to the 2005 draft and listed the "big name" forward picks in the back half of the first (didn't do the last 3 years, early to tell). Some of the bigger forward names:

2005: Oshie (24)
2006: Giroux (22)
2007: Pacioretty (22)
2008: Eberle (22)
2009: Kreider (19), Johansson (24)
2010: Tarasenko (16), Kuznetsov (26)
2012: Hertl (17), Teravainen (18)

That's it. 10 players in 8 years. Obviously you go for it, but it's a longshot.

- jmatchett383



Scoring is so down over the past few years that I think sometimes we forget to slide the scale a little downward when it comes to expected point totals in today's NHL.


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