Im not hitting the PANIC button yet...
- HossaGuy

I have lowered my expectations this year.
- SteveRain

I'm with both of you. Honestly, when the other core guys get going (outside of the Kane line), you'd think things will look a bit better. At the same time, my expectations are a bit on the low side given this team's start.

That doesn't mean that this team can't make the playoffs. But I have to really question just how deep they can go - given where the team is right now.

But things could change in an instant - especially if Bowman can trade for a LW that could skate with Toews and Hossa and a D-man who can skate and is responsible in his own end.

They finished games pretty strong in CA last week.
- tredbrta

Having been at both So Cal games, I'd have to disagree.

Thoroughly outplayed for 58 minutes in Anaheim... and then we stole that one.

LA was very good 1st, ok 2nd and horrendous on our heals 3rd the entire period.

You know, if all they did was move Hossa lines would be more balanced;

81 - 19 - 56
72 - 15 - 88
65 - 67 - 86
11 - 16 - 28

Seems like 1 guy (and a vet real pro) out of position makes more sense then having like 5 of them playing the wrong position.
- vabeachbear

I lost you at 5 of them being out of position. Its truly just 1.

Could be Dano....then your bottom 3 lines are the same.

I disagree to a certain extent about the 2010 sell off only netting Danault and Forsling. I think that's looking at it a little too black and white.

You get picks as lottery tickets, and I am willing to bet having extra picks changed their strategy a bit. What is undeniable though is that the blackhawks whiffed on a lot of their picks. They obviously hit paydirt on many of the picks that got them to this point, but they are in a better situation today if they had more depth coming in as replacements. It is hard to do, but at least they are supplementing the picks they give up on rentals

You were spot on with the trade climate this winter. The cap crunch limited Bowman's options for salary dumps...even if he learns valuable lessons from the first dump, it was a different environment this summer

So you are going to have 56 and 86 play RW on the 3rd and 4th line, because you sure as hell aren't going to move proven top players like 81/88 to accommodate them.
- SteveRain

I wouldn't move Kane but I certainly think Hossa has the understanding and ability to play LW. Worth a try. His experience will make it easier to adjust than the kids.

The issue will remain indefinitely as Hossa and Kane aren't going anywhere and Dano and TT just don't fit there. Either you shift Hossa left and/or down or you trade for a LW with the surplus - IF you want to contend now.

At this exact moment in time I think the Hawks are in a bind. You've got arguably a flawed roster with no immediate means of correction. Unless you are thrown a bone by another GM any move you attempt to make is likely to require an overpayment (i.e. Tuevo/Dano/picks). You may get a small boost in the short term but you're kicking the can down the road and will have to pay the piper eventually.

I think the worst case scenario is that you are in this dogfight from now until the end of the season to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, I think that's where we'll be. I say this because then every night is important you can't experiment you can't call up any of the prospects and see what they've got. You make deals out of desperation, etc.

In the opposite case, either in for sure or out for sure you can make better decisions because you aren't desperate. For example, if you know you're out of it you could dump Daley for less of a return and give the kids more chances at D, i.e. Polkka, Gustafusson. Possibly, play Darling more as a 1B option instead of backup to see if he can handle the load. You can't do those things easily when you are fighting for a spot. Conversely, if you know you're in, you can make smaller tweaks and not need big brush strokes of turnover, think like a Desi type deal.

My hope is that we continue to tinker, we continue to try help the younger players get better consistency and that somewhere along the line we find line combos that work better and get better results. The main roadblock in that plan is time, it needs to happen sooner than later.

One interesting note, is that there is a distinct possibility that if we do make it to the playoffs that Bickell does come back and is ready to play and plays well. It's not out of the realm of possibility and could possibly enhance his trade value for next season. Teams want a big man for the playoffs and $4mil with 1-yr left is not as unpalatable as $4mil/2yrs. Hell I'd even give Morin a chance as well, I mean the main issue there is getting PT and he's subject to waivers but hell what else you got going.

We will all know a lot more by Dec. 31st.

If this club doesn't make hay in December with so many home games they could be vulnerable.

Last year at this time I was saying the same....I pointed out about a mediocre goal differential back then and it is the same way now...+3

That's a very important stat that indicates team strength as much or more than anything else.

But the important factor is they are coming off a Cup run and are older as John mentioned. You can see some of that age show on the big 3 when they are out there on a long shift in OT.

Teams have all gotten bigger and faster.....And unless the young guys contribute in a big way it will be difficult.

Where I sit the Hawks have a better record than they have played up until now...
Although the red flag is up I will give them a few more weeks.

I disagree to a certain extent about the 2010 sell off only netting Danault and Forsling. I think that's looking at it a little too black and white.

You get picks as lottery tickets, and I am willing to bet having extra picks changed their strategy a bit. What is undeniable though is that the blackhawks whiffed on a lot of their picks. They obviously hit paydirt on many of the picks that got them to this point, but they are in a better situation today if they had more depth coming in as replacements. It is hard to do, but at least they are supplementing the picks they give up on rentals

You were spot on with the trade climate this winter. The cap crunch limited Bowman's options for salary dumps...even if he learns valuable lessons from the first dump, it was a different environment this summer
- YuenglingJagr

I disagree to a certain extent about the 2010 sell off only netting Danault and Forsling. I think that's looking at it a little too black and white.

At the end of the day only black and white matters....

They finished games pretty strong in CA last week.

This isn't about a worn out core - though it may be later in the year. IMO this is more about turnover - 7-8 roster spots have new faces depending on who plays. It is also about line imbalance. Forcing 2 kids under 22 (TT and Dano) from RW to LW and now a young D man to play his offside.

IMO - push vets to play LW and let Dano and TT play their natural positions. If TT is injured (and he looks like it) then sit him until he is healthy. Maybe send him to Rockford for a stint at RW before coming back up.

The line imbalance is shortening the bench too much. That is what will cost this team in "finish" down the line. Stan may still be able to address this in trade this year but the cost may be too steep.
- tredbrta

Not so sure about this one.

Also, I know I'm not an avid Hawks watcher, although I do watch them when I can, but off the top of my head from the players last year to this year I'm only counting 4 players that are not on roster that were a big part of the team, Sharp, Richards, oduya, Saad. New faces, would be Daley, Anisimov, Dano, And Mashinter. That i see consistently different. Correct me if I'm wrong.

I'm not sure who the other 3-4 players would be

Some fans of other teams pop in at times and remark how great the Hawks look: Keith, Kane, Panarin, Seabrook.

I'll go with those two myself... as your two best players and the guys who are really superstars, not just stars.

I've agreed with your bubble assessment from the summer if you'll recall.

Stamkos!
- spatso

Stamkos leaving Tampa sort of upends the whole "cycle turning" theory you regurgitate regularly.

Hawks right now are in the lower 3rd of the league age wise. They can re-tool just like 11 and be back on top. Kane and Toews are 26 and 27.

And Stamkos really doesn't make players around him better like Kane. AA is reaping the benefits this year.... and I'm not saying Stamkos is not a stud.

I wouldn't move Kane but I certainly think Hossa has the understanding and ability to play LW. Worth a try. His experience will make it easier to adjust than the kids.

The issue will remain indefinitely as Hossa and Kane aren't going anywhere and Dano and TT just don't fit there. Either you shift Hossa left and/or down or you trade for a LW with the surplus - IF you want to contend now.
- tredbrta

It is going to be interesting watching the RW situation resolve itself. 81, 88, 56, and 86 all play their best hockey on the ride side but playing one of them on the 4th line (56 or 86) is a waste. Dano and Teravainen haven't been stellar on LW but Dano has been improving.

Having been at both So Cal games, I'd have to disagree.

Thoroughly outplayed for 58 minutes in Anaheim... and then we stole that one.

LA was very good 1st, ok 2nd and horrendous on our heals 3rd the entire period.
- jjcbeme

Key word was "finish". They finished all 3 games well.

I disagree to a certain extent about the 2010 sell off only netting Danault and Forsling. I think that's looking at it a little too black and white.

You get picks as lottery tickets, and I am willing to bet having extra picks changed their strategy a bit. What is undeniable though is that the blackhawks whiffed on a lot of their picks. They obviously hit paydirt on many of the picks that got them to this point, but they are in a better situation today if they had more depth coming in as replacements. It is hard to do, but at least they are supplementing the picks they give up on rentals

You were spot on with the trade climate this winter. The cap crunch limited Bowman's options for salary dumps...even if he learns valuable lessons from the first dump, it was a different environment this summer
- YuenglingJagr

JJ has worked through the deals, etc... etc... in his blog previously and frankly it doesn't look good as he mentioned in this blog... they didn't end up with much of anything, and Forsling may never play in this league.

Pretty obvious that there is absolutely no achievable return that would replace Kane. I can't imagine the front office considering it unless there were negative off ice reports. We know they must be watching him very closely. This offense without Kane would be non-existent.
- tredbrta

How about Kane and Bickell for McDavid? What is that, 13M in cap space for the next two years?

C'mon guys we're sitting tied for 3rd in the division.....a nice stretch of home games coming up. We lost a tough OT game in LA after playing 3 games in 4 nights, came back home clearly flat and out of sorts with our first home game in 2 weeks against a desperate Wild team, and then lost a tough OT game in Ottawa where i thought we were the better team.

This team will go on a nice run coming up, im sure of it. A bunch of home games, easier opponents later in the month. I think over that time Toews, Hossa, and Dano will break out and start producing, and im hoping Teravainen does too. A lot of players that haven't played nearly as well as they are capable of, especially at forward.

We're still playing pretty solid team defense, and it would help to get more consistent goaltending or we'd see even fewer GA.

What im saying is im not all of a sudden because of a few rough games gonna change my outlook on this team.

There still isn't a team out West i would pick to beat us in a 7 game series assuming we're healthy. I wouldn't say we're a "bubble" team. Thats kinda silly. Along with LA i bet all other teams would agree nobody is more dangerous when all the chips are on the table.

You know, if all they did was move Hossa lines would be more balanced;

81 - 19 - 56
72 - 15 - 88
65 - 67 - 86
11 - 16 - 28

Seems like 1 guy (and a vet real pro) out of position makes more sense then having like 5 of them playing the wrong position.
- vabeachbear

I'm coming around to this same idea too. Hossa is a pro. If he's the only guy on his off-side the whole team is looking a lot better than having 2 very young guys play on theirs instead. Get 53 far far away. Let that 4th line develop some chemistry, although I would consider swapping Shaw to RW on the 4th and putting Garbutt on LW on the 3rd. I think those are their natural sides? Then you really do only have Hossa on his off wing.

How about Kane and Bickell for McDavid? What is that, 13M in cap space for the next two years?
- Dieselhead

Unfortunately, the Oilers also have to comply with the salary cap

Some fans of other teams pop in at times and remark how great the Hawks look: Keith, Kane, Panarin, Seabrook.

I'll go with those two myself... as your two best players and the guys who are really superstars, not just stars.

I've agreed with your bubble assessment from the summer if you'll recall.
- kaptaan

My list is different

Kane, Kane, Kane (thank god we didnt do something knee jerk), Keith, Toews (still a factor but find some linemates), Panarin, Anisimov and Hossa (yes, goals down but what a two way guy).

Seabs looks spent. Making more and more turnovers or slow to get back to cover rebounds. Too many minutes.

Last thought: Keith was extremely non-aggressive getting back to puck last night on the rebound goal. Too many minutes also.

Last year same happened to Kings... Voynov beat his wife, they skated Doughty 30 min a night and by March he was a shadow of his usual self. Too many minutes.

Not so sure about this one.

Also, I know I'm not an avid Hawks watcher, although I do watch them when I can, but off the top of my head from the players last year to this year I'm only counting 4 players that are not on roster that were a big part of the team, Sharp, Richards, oduya, Saad. New faces, would be Daley, Anisimov, Dano, And Mashinter. That i see consistently different. Correct me if I'm wrong.

I'm not sure who the other 3-4 players would be
- KINGS67

As I posted - it depends on who is playing. TVR and Darling played a 3rd of the year last year. I count them as turnover but maybe shouldn't. So, for this year - new names who have played with the big team.

Panarin, Anisimov, Dano, TVR, Darling, Daley, Gustafson, Svedberg, Mashinter, Kero, Hartman, Hinostroza, Garbutt....

Even Desi and TT are essentially new faces in the locker room. That is a lot of turnover.

I'm coming around to this same idea too. Hossa is a pro. If he's the only guy on his off-side the whole team is looking a lot better than having 2 very young guys play on theirs instead. Get 53 far far away. Let that 4th line develop some chemistry, although I would consider swapping Shaw to RW on the 4th and putting Garbutt on LW on the 3rd. I think those are their natural sides? Then you really do only have Hossa on his off wing.
- maria_wyeth

This is what I want. A trial for Hossa at LW and lose Mashinter. If Sharp could do it so can Hossa.

Stamkos leaving Tampa sort of upends the whole "cycle turning" theory you regurgitate regularly.

Hawks right now are in the lower 3rd of the league age wise. They can re-tool just like 11 and be back on top. Kane and Toews are 26 and 27.

And Stamkos really doesn't make players around him better like Kane. AA is reaping the benefits this year.... and I'm not saying Stamkos is not a stud.
- tredbrta

Kane has the clutch factor that Stamkos seemingly doesn't. SCF series is a perfect example. He had more opportunities than Kane did, but couldn't finish any of them. I can't think of a player in the league who "shows up" at the big moments the way that Kane does

Not so sure about this one.

Also, I know I'm not an avid Hawks watcher, although I do watch them when I can, but off the top of my head from the players last year to this year I'm only counting 4 players that are not on roster that were a big part of the team, Sharp, Richards, oduya, Saad. New faces, would be Daley, Anisimov, Dano, And Mashinter. That i see consistently different. Correct me if I'm wrong.

I'm not sure who the other 3-4 players would be
- KINGS67

Don't forget Panarin, he's the best new face we have. I think he more than replaces Saad. If he stays on a line with Kane I imagine he will beat Saad's numbers from last season pretty handily. I know that we haven't found the 1LW to replace Saad, but I think Panarin for Saad is a more accurate comparison than Panarin for Sharp, regardless of which lines everyone plays on. AA more than makes up for losing Richards. Not replacing Oduya, and not replacing one of Sharp, Versteeg, Bickell are the big problems right now, IMO

I lost you at 5 of them being out of position. Its truly just 1.

Could be Dano....then your bottom 3 lines are the same.
- SteveRain

1. JJ: Excellent blog as usual. I am not giving up on the team just yet.
2. If guys are hurt, why are they playing? Sit them now and rest them (TT?)
3. Maybe we should call up Danault as soon as he is in shape. That might free up some better line combinations:

67-19-81 (a couple of people have said that Kero is a LW by inclination)
72-15-88
65-16-56
28-Danault-86

All the RW are back where they belong.

4. Why not try McNeill or Haggerty or the much maligned Jeremy Morin at LW? IIRC, Morin had some success playing with Toews and Hossa in the past. I know he has a permanent spot in Q's Doghouse, but now maybe it is time for one last chance.

This is what I want. A trial for Hossa at LW and lose Mashinter. If Sharp could do it so can Hossa.
- tredbrta

This.