Jason Lewis: The Oddity of Goaltending and First Round Selections

This is a great read, Jason. Nicely done.

Thanks for reading!

This is a really good blog. Really Good.

Jason Lewis: The Oddity of Goaltending and First Round Selections
- Jason_Lewis

Good blog man!

Jason Lewis: The Oddity of Goaltending and First Round Selections
- Jason_Lewis

Excellent blog. Could've used more cowbell (read: leaf bashing), but great nonetheless

Good read.

Thanks for all the positive feedback you guys! Much appreciated and thank you all for reading!

Great to see something many suspected clarified with such helpful research and data.

I'm curious how the 'bust' rate for top drafted goalies compares to that of forwards and defenseman taken in the first round. A fair amount of those high pick skaters don't pan out either. Perhaps the big difference is how many late round goalies become top players vs the few skaters that make it from the late rounds...

As for Jonathan Bernier, hopefully he gets a new team and a shot of reserecting his career.

Interesting blog. Looking at your numbers, 4 of 24 goalies drafted in the 1st round are above average which would make the percentage 16% not 6%. It would be interesting to compare what the percentage of forwards and defencemen drafted in the 1st round that are above average. I would guess that it would be similar or less.

Also may be interesting to look at the percentage of above average goalies that are taken in each round. I would guess that as the round gets higher the percentage gets lower. Likely much less than 16% of goalies drafted in the 5th round are above average NHL goalies now. Don't think you can pass on elite goalie prospects in first few rounds and expect them to be there in round 7.

Interesting blog. Looking at your numbers, 4 of 24 goalies drafted in the 1st round are above average which would make the percentage 16% not 6%. It would be interesting to compare what the percentage of forwards and defencemen drafted in the 1st round that are above average. I would guess that it would be similar or less.

Also may be interesting to look at the percentage of above average goalies that are taken in each round. I would guess that as the round gets higher the percentage gets lower. Likely much less than 16% of goalies drafted in the 5th round are above average NHL goalies now. Don't think you can pass on elite goalie prospects in first few rounds and expect them to be there in round 7.
- EyeJay

My apologies. Punched it in wrong in haste.

But, even by "Elite" goaltending prospect standards, a 10-15% success rate is pretty bad. That's quite a chance to take.

I like where you are going with this though, and I might extend the study of it to include all those rounds. I think the real issues comes up when you ask, okay, what were we passing on to take that goalie?

I'm fairly certain Rask was drafted by Toronto.

I'm fairly certain Rask was drafted by Toronto.
- thebutlerdunnit

Fixed!

Going back a little bit, the Devils really enjoyed this strategy Jean-Francois Damphousse (24th overall 1997) Ari Ahonen (27th overall 1999) In hindsight, wtf were they doing picking goalies! If only they knew Marty would run the franchise until 2012-2013

According to John Hoven Kopitars contract almost done

Rumored to be around 8 years 9.75AAV

Unbelievable term and money if it is true. NMC apparently holding talks up.

EXCELLENT NEWS!

PS Good win for LA tonight

PSS
As a final little tidbit, long after the contract is announced and the Kings complete their (assumed) run through the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs, there is one other little housekeeping item that will eventually tie back to this story. Expect Kopitar to be wearing the captain’s C when the Kings suit up for opening night next October, right after they get back from their two-game stint in Las Vegas. -John Hoven (mayors manor)

first!!!!

edit...Dmn it! second!



kings fan to comment


interesting read JL
I, also would be interested to see a comparison to first round forward and Dman success compared to goal tenders. I would think it would back up your point being that you are the "Stats Master" (darth vader voice)
thanks for another stat backed great blog!

first!!!!





kings fan to comment


interesting read JL
I, also would be interested to see a comparison to first round forward and Dman success compared to goal tenders. I would think it would back up your point being that you are the "Stats Master" (darth vader voice)
thanks for another stat backed great blog!
- dprice818

Sure about that lol

According to John Hoven Kopitars contract almost done

Rumored to be around 8 years 9.75AAV

Unbelievable term and money if it is true. NMC apparently holding talks up.

EXCELLENT NEWS!

PS Good win for LA tonight

PSS
As a final little tidbit, long after the contract is announced and the Kings complete their (assumed) run through the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs, there is one other little housekeeping item that will eventually tie back to this story. Expect Kopitar to be wearing the captain’s C when the Kings suit up for opening night next October, right after they get back from their two-game stint in Las Vegas. -John Hoven (mayors manor)
- KINGS67

seems like the right/obvious move.....
brown had another tough night.....love the guy but his play for his money is getting more and more frustrating

seems like the right/obvious move.....
brown had another tough night.....love the guy but his play for his money is getting more and more frustrating
- dprice818

I agree. I'm tired of calling Brown a moron every single time he is on the ice.

Pretty sure that is an opinion comment of Hoven but that guy is in the IN and I'd believe it.

Brown needs to be traded for a top 4 guy. The name that I like is Kris Russel

I agree. I'm tired of calling Brown a moron every single time he is on the ice.

Pretty sure that is an opinion comment of Hoven but that guy is in the IN and I'd believe it.

Brown needs to be traded for a top 4 guy. The name that I like is Kris Russel
- KINGS67

I like it.......straight across right? lol
it would be tough to yank him out of Calgary

Great read. As a goalie, I love it and as a hockey fan I love it even more. It is something that has been stewing in my mind the past few years and to see it all laid out is pretty nice. Obviously the Bruins stole the show at the draft, but I had picked up my jaw just in time for it to hit the floor again when Washington took Samsonov

Jason, you make a good point, but I do have one issue.

You arbitrarily picked 2000 as your starting point. If I arbitrarily pick 2002 as my starting point, you would have 8 out of 18 "successful" first-round goalies. Not a staggering percentage (44%), but if you look at some drafts, particularly the mid-90s and, more recently, 2006-2008, it's not terrible either. So I agree that goalies are a bit of a crapshoot, but so are all prospects, even first rounders, aside from the Crosby/Stamkov/Tavares/Kane types.

Also, top-level defensemen can also be hard to project. Of the past 14 Norris winners (deserved or not), only 3 were taken in the first round, so it's not like finding gems past the first round is reserved only for goalies.

Great read. As a goalie, I love it and as a hockey fan I love it even more. It is something that has been stewing in my mind the past few years and to see it all laid out is pretty nice. Obviously the Bruins stole the show at the draft, but I had picked up my jaw just in time for it to hit the floor again when Washington took Samsonov
- YuenglingJagr

Samsonov has been really really good in the KHL so far. Small sample size though. Could be awful next year. It's never easy to tell with that league in terms of development. He has been good though.

Jason, you make a good point, but I do have one issue.

You arbitrarily picked 2000 as your starting point. If I arbitrarily pick 2002 as my starting point, you would have 8 out of 18 "successful" first-round goalies. Not a staggering percentage (44%), but if you look at some drafts, particularly the mid-90s and, more recently, 2006-2008, it's not terrible either. So I agree that goalies are a bit of a crapshoot, but so are all prospects, even first rounders, aside from the Crosby/Stamkov/Tavares/Kane types.
- jmatchett383

I plan on going through and just selecting positions or leagues to see if there is any kind of similarity. Also I used 15 years because it's a number that puts us back to 2000. Wasn't that arbitrary. Nevertheless, yea, I plan on going back further, doing different positions, leagues etc.

You are correct, finding a Crosby/Ovechkin is surely difficult also. A top 10 is tough, but a top 50 or top 75 is not AS bad. Or so you would think. I'll have to look into it.

This might be the best blog I've ever read on this site. Well done sir