I think that the acquisition of Phil Kessel and a generally injury-free season will have more to do with the Pens' success than data analysis.
- jmatchett383

Data analysis is all about constructing a team. Adding Kessel to the past few years' squads wouldn't have lead to success since we had plugs like Pyatt, Adams, Vitalle, Glass, etc in the bottom half of our line up. Swapping out Sutter for Fehr and Bonino, the Cullen signing, betting on Kunitz and Bennett, not bringing back Lapierre or Adams: these were all analytically sound moves in team construction. Hell, bringing in Kessel was a tremendously analytically sound move.

Basically what I'm saying is yes, the two biggest factors to our on ice success will be Kessel and good health. But this new phylosophy to team construction during the offseason has given us the supporting cast that may put us over the top.

Seems doable.

#offenseisallthatmatters...ever
- jmatchett383

There's obviously a lot of things that factor in generally with hockey but when someone says a deal is bad because said player doesn't produce enough to warrant the deal then in the context of that conversation offense is all the matters.

So we can expect a 35/40-goal season from Lecavalier?

I'm banking on 50 points from Gordie Howe this year.
- jmatchett383

Why would you expect LeCavalier to have a massive increase in his recent production? Sounds like blindly wishful thinking.

Why would you expect LeCavalier to have a massive increase in his recent production? Sounds like blindly wishful thinking.
- jfkst1

Well, if we're going use statistical analysis from ~10 years ago to help project future production, I'll take Lecavalier's seasons of 35, 52, and 40 goals and just assume that the last 6 years have been abberrations.

Edit: I don't think Lecavalier will break double-digits in goals...in fact, I hope he's benched all season. I just think that using stats from 8 years ago to predict future output is silly.

There's obviously a lot of things that factor in generally with hockey but when someone says a deal is bad because said player doesn't produce enough to warrant the deal then in the context of that conversation offense is all the matters.
- jaydogg1974

So let's say that (theoretically) Saad produces at 1/2 of the rate per $$ than Kunitz but wins a Selke Trophy and ends up leading the Blue Jackets to a Stanley Cup...you're saying you'd consider it a bad contract because his offensive output wasn't as high as Kunitz'?

It's not going to happen, but I personally judge a player's value on more than simply his ratio of points to cap hit.

Data analysis is all about constructing a team. Adding Kessel to the past few years' squads wouldn't have lead to success since we had plugs like Pyatt, Adams, Vitalle, Glass, etc in the bottom half of our line up. Swapping out Sutter for Fehr and Bonino, the Cullen signing, betting on Kunitz and Bennett, not bringing back Lapierre or Adams: these were all analytically sound moves in team construction. Hell, bringing in Kessel was a tremendously analytically sound move.

Basically what I'm saying is yes, the two biggest factors to our on ice success will be Kessel and good health. But this new phylosophy to team construction during the offseason has given us the supporting cast that may put us over the top.
- Victoro311

I agree. USEFUL data analysis with context is generally good to give your team an extra boost. I may have misinterpreted what you said, but the way that I read it was that the success or lack thereof by the Pens this season will be a barometer of the usefulness of data analysis. I disagree that the use of analytics will be the major deciding factor.

Who was their analytics expect in the 08/09 season?

Well, if we're going use statistical analysis from ~10 years ago to help project future production, I'll take Lecavalier's seasons of 35, 52, and 40 goals and just assume that the last 6 years have been abberrations.
- jmatchett383

I agree. USEFUL data analysis with context is generally good to give your team an extra boost. I may have misinterpreted what you said, but the way that I read it was that the success or lack thereof by the Pens this season will be a barometer of the usefulness of data analysis. I disagree that the use of analytics will be the major deciding factor.

Who was their analytics expect in the 08/09 season?
- jmatchett383

your killin it today. TCB baby, TCB

Well, if we're going use statistical analysis from ~10 years ago to help project future production, I'll take Lecavalier's seasons of 35, 52, and 40 goals and just assume that the last 6 years have been abberrations.
- jmatchett383

It should be obvious that significant deviation in one season is more likely to be recovered from than multiple seasons. I don't know why this simple concept requires any explanation. Lecavalier has been declining in production for five straight years and Kunitz had one poor season.

So let's say that (theoretically) Saad produces at 1/2 of the rate per $$ than Kunitz but wins a Selke Trophy and ends up leading the Blue Jackets to a Stanley Cup...you're saying you'd consider it a bad contract because his offensive output wasn't as high as Kunitz'?

It's not going to happen, but I personally judge a player's value on more than simply his ratio of points to cap hit.
- jmatchett383

No single figure accurately portrays a player's value to the team.

your killin it today. TCB baby, TCB
- ChrisMS

I don't know what TCB means, but sure.

Also, I apologize if my posts are coming off as extra snarky today as opposed to my usual level of snarkiness. I just think that, sometimes, people will come up with new ways of compiling specific data simply to prove their current point.

i.e. Kunitz put up 18 points in 20 games 8 years and one abdominal surgery ago, so we can expect around 74 points from him this year.

It should be obvious that significant deviation in one season is more likely to be recovered from than multiple seasons. I don't know why this simple concept requires any explanation. Lecavalier has been declining in production for five straight years and Kunitz had one poor season.
- jfkst1

Okay.

With the exception of last season, Lecavalier has never put up fewer than 20 goals (pro-rated to 21 during 12/13). So we can expect that last year was an abberration and that he should go back to 18-22 goals this year. Would you agree with that?

No single figure accurately portrays a player's value to the team.
- jfkst1

I'm not going to disagree with you.

Okay.

With the exception of last season, Lecavalier has never put up fewer than 20 goals (pro-rated to 21 during 12/13). So we can expect that last year was an abberration and that he should go back to 18-22 goals this year. Would you agree with that?
- jmatchett383

I don't see why that is unrealistic as long as he gets more playing time under Hakstol. The problem I would have with Lecavalier is he isn't good defensively and I don't think he is good enough offensively to justify his salary.

So let's say that (theoretically) Saad produces at 1/2 of the rate per $$ than Kunitz but wins a Selke Trophy and ends up leading the Blue Jackets to a Stanley Cup...you're saying you'd consider it a bad contract because his offensive output wasn't as high as Kunitz'?

It's not going to happen, but I personally judge a player's value on more than simply his ratio of points to cap hit.
- jmatchett383

I agree with everything you said but I'm not the one that said Kunitz's deal was bad because he didn't produce enough to warrant 3.85M/year. I simply pointed out that if you are judging his deal strictly on production as the original poster did then his production absolutely warrants 3.85M and is actually very good value.

I don't see why that is unrealistic as long as he gets more playing time under Hakstol. The problem I would have with Lecavalier is he isn't good defensively and I don't think he is good enough offensively to justify his salary.
- jfkst1

I agree.

And yes, that was (clearly, I hope) massive hyperbole in my original statement. And yes, he likely won't sniff 20 goals. However, as you said, other factors come into play (not good enough defensively, head coach relationship, usgae, etc.) that can affect a player's output that have indirect correlation to his past production.

For example, if you put Kunitz on Crosby/Malkin's wing, he may flirt with 30 goals. If he's primarily a bottom-6 player and doesn't get PP time, he may be a 15-20 goals player. Nothing about him has changed (except that he is one more year removed from his "prime") but other factors can play a role as well.

I don't really like Kunitz, to be honest, but I can appreciate his talent. I just don't think you're ever going to see another 35-goal season, and there is a chance (slight possibly) that last season was a sign of things to come due to his age.

I agree. USEFUL data analysis with context is generally good to give your team an extra boost. I may have misinterpreted what you said, but the way that I read it was that the success or lack thereof by the Pens this season will be a barometer of the usefulness of data analysis. I disagree that the use of analytics will be the major deciding factor.

Who was their analytics expect in the 08/09 season?
- jmatchett383

I think he's trying to say that with the Pens being the analytical darlings this year it could be a huge hit to the value of using that data to construct roster if they struggle. Every move the Pens have made this summer has been deemed a great move because analytics said they were good moves, if the Pens struggle and fall short of expectations the validity of advanced stats will be called into question.

You don't pay a 35 year old player based on his potential. That's for the young guys. You pay him based on his production. He very well could be a third line guy next season. Pretty pricey for an underperforming 3rd line winger.
- Zac_O

I don't care if he's 50. The fact is that there were no free agents that could have replaced Kunitz for that price. What player could the pens have gotten at less than 3.8 mil who can handle top 6 minutes effectively?

I agree. USEFUL data analysis with context is generally good to give your team an extra boost. I may have misinterpreted what you said, but the way that I read it was that the success or lack thereof by the Pens this season will be a barometer of the usefulness of data analysis. I disagree that the use of analytics will be the major deciding factor.

Who was their analytics expect in the 08/09 season?
- jmatchett383

I think he's trying to say that with the Pens being the analytical darlings this year it could be a huge hit to the value of using that data to construct roster if they struggle. Every move the Pens have made this summer has been deemed a great move because analytics said they were good moves, if the Pens struggle and fall short of expectations the validity of advanced stats will be called into question.
- jaydogg1974

The Penguins suffered devestating injuries to several key players for insanely huge stretches last year. The only way to view the analytics as a factor would be to have the same injuries happen to the same players again.

For example, a healthy Letang/Maata/Malkin for the bulk of the season, as well as the emergence of Pouliot, coupled with the acquisition of one of the best goals scorers and point producers (not analytical based, traditional stats) will have more bearing on the success of the team than the construction of the bottom-6 forwards. Now, the construction of the bottom-6 coupled with the above parameters may be the difference between a Cup-winning team and a second-round team, but it won't be the driving factor. It's more of a supplemental factor that can help push you over the edge.

It should be obvious that significant deviation in one season is more likely to be recovered from than multiple seasons. I don't know why this simple concept requires any explanation. Lecavalier has been declining in production for five straight years and Kunitz had one poor season.
- jfkst1

I think analytics are very valuable, but the analytics I'm talking about are similar to the data this website provides:
http://somekindofninja.co...=Regulation&search=Search

I think this tool provides a lot of information on a players offensive ability. Things like Corsi...I'm just not sold on.

I agree. USEFUL data analysis with context is generally good to give your team an extra boost. I may have misinterpreted what you said, but the way that I read it was that the success or lack thereof by the Pens this season will be a barometer of the usefulness of data analysis. I disagree that the use of analytics will be the major deciding factor.

Who was their analytics expect in the 08/09 season?
- jmatchett383

See, I'm not the analytics purist that some people peg me to be. I'm not dumb. I know that controlling a larger percentage of the offense generated in a game (possession) does not lead to victory. Look at the Flames this year, the Leafs a few years ago, the Bruins's cup team, and the 2007-2008 Penguins. Wins are determined by goals and goals are determined by a lot of chaotic variables coupled with skill. Where analytics comes into play is during offseason signings and trades. Since there's a lot of randomness that goes into scoring, points accumulated is a very poor way of predicting future success since any one player could just be getting extremely lucky or extremely unlucky. In order to find a player's true value, GMs need to know if a player is putting himself in goal scoring opportunities more often than not in order to see if his current production level is sustainable or anomalous. From there the GM can make the decision if a player is under valued or over valued and make decisions wether to sign, let walk, sell high, or buy low on him from there.

So I disagree with you when you say analytics won't be a major deciding factor in our success. From a game to game perspective? No it won't be. But from a season whole perspective I think the analytically sound decisions that were made this offseason will have a major impact since we now have a roster filled with great valued players that can produce up and down the line up

I don't care if he's 50. The fact is that there were no free agents that could have replaced Kunitz for that price. What player could the pens have gotten at less than 3.8 mil who can handle top 6 minutes effectively?
- drummer829

Justin Williams
Jimmy Hayes

You could probably argue Joel Ward and Matt Belesky if you wanted to.

I think he's trying to say that with the Pens being the analytical darlings this year it could be a huge hit to the value of using that data to construct roster if they struggle. Every move the Pens have made this summer has been deemed a great move because analytics said they were good moves, if the Pens struggle and fall short of expectations the validity of advanced stats will be called into question.
- jaydogg1974

Actually yeah. That was exactly what I was saying.

See, I'm not the analytics purist that some people peg me to be. I'm not dumb. I know that controlling a larger percentage of the offense generated in a game (possession) does not lead to victory. Look at the Flames this year, the Leafs a few years ago, the Bruins's cup team, and the 2007-2008 Penguins. Wins are determined by goals and goals are determined by a lot of chaotic variables coupled with skill. Where analytics comes into play is during offseason signings and trades. Since there's a lot of randomness that goes into scoring, points accumulated is a very poor way of predicting future success since any one player could just be getting extremely lucky or extremely unlucky. In order to find a player's true value, GMs need to know if a player is putting himself in goal scoring opportunities more often than not in order to see if his current production level is sustainable or anomalous. From there the GM can make the decision if a player is under valued or over valued and make decisions wether to sign, let walk, sell high, or buy low on him from there.

So I disagree with you when you say analytics won't be a major deciding factor in our success. From a game to game perspective? No it won't be. But from a season whole perspective I think the analytically sound decisions that were made this offseason will have a major impact since we now have a roster filled with great valued players that can produce up and down the line up
- Victoro311

Please fill-in the blank

If the Penguins go into the playoffs this year without Letang, Maata, Pouliot, a dried-up Perron, and a banged-up Malkin, they will have ___ playoff success than last year because they are more analytically sound.

Please choose from: more/less/the same