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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Forget About Phil Kessel Go After This UFA...
Author Message
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Jun 26 @ 7:40 AM ET
So hows the Kessel lovefest going today?
lpstjg
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 05.28.2015

Jun 26 @ 7:42 AM ET
They'll take him to keep the seat warm until trade deadline & flip him for a first & have Draisatl play.
- Aussiepenguin


But who would we get back from the Oilers?
MANXMAN
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 03.21.2013

Jun 26 @ 7:45 AM ET
I am a Flyers fan and I just dont get the love affair with Frolik. I would have no problem giving him @$4 million but beyond that....no way. He reminds me of Ales Hemsky another guy who should not have made over $5 million. I even laugh more when I hear people compare Voracek to Frolik, no comp Voracek is way better!
Cptmjl
New York Islanders
Joined: 11.05.2011

Jun 26 @ 7:50 AM ET
I do listen to myself! here's my rebuttal to your criticism of my offer.

well, the closest thing we have to compare is the Rick Nash deal from a few years ago.

Good winger on a long, expensive contract. Also dealt a 3rd rounder.

Dubinsky making significant money with 4.2 cap hit.
Anisimov agreeing to a contract right after the trade that made him a significant 3.2 cap hit.
Tim Erixon who was a pretty good prospect. Wasn't that highly touted I don't think. Can't find anything now that says that he was super highly touted at that time.
1st round pick.
3rd rounder.
The 3rd rounders baaaasically cancel out for the purposes of this analysis.

So the closest comparable i can find to a Kessel trade has...
one great player making a lot of money for two okay players making moderate amounts of money, a decent prospect, and a 1st rounder.

so in my back of the envelope quick trade offer, i said two overpaid dudes plus Olli Maatta. Olli Maatta is not a "good young prospect." At this point he is a bona fide #2-3 defenseman who makes a million bucs this year. That is damn valuable.

I'd argue that if the pens wanted a 1st rounder and a decent prospect like the 2014 version of erixon for Maatta, they could get that.

Therefore, my original offer of Sutter, Scuderi, and Maatta for Kessel is not that absurd. it actually lines up pretty well with the Rick Nash trade. But hey.. i'll throw in an extra 2nd rounder to make up for the fact that Sutter and Scuds are overpaid as opposed to appropriately paid like Dubinsky and Anisimov were.

The salary going back to CBJ in the deal is essentially what allowed Nash to have any trade value, period. Players who make what they are worth simply aren't that valuable in a trade.

However, Toronto doesn't HAVE to trade him. So maybe they'll be able to wait for a team to super overpay.

Trade value = (Player's talent - what player would make on open market per year) * years left on contract

the question we must ask is.... what would Kessel make per year on the open market?

There's a huge difference in saying a player is good, and saying he has a lot of trade value.

And regardless, my initial offer was about what i'd be okay with the pens paying. not what they might actually have to pay.

it was just luck that it actually did line up relatively well with the Nash deal

- poopmouth

Youre completely out of your mind if you think trading even Maatta straight up for Kessel is a good idea. As an islanders fan i hope you guys do it. My god
poopmouth
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 02.02.2007

Jun 26 @ 7:50 AM ET
So hows the Kessel lovefest going today?
- Guile


I'm ready for round 2 haha.

It's entertaining, if nothing else
MacPatty
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 05.21.2015

Jun 26 @ 7:59 AM ET
Like a few have mentioned, if the Pens are going for anyone from the Leafs it should be JVR. Good as Kessel is, unless the Leafs eat $2M in cap or are willing to accept a reduced package like Kapanen and Harrington, the deal would be too burdensome on the Pens.

I would give up much more for JVR and his contract.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Jun 26 @ 8:00 AM ET
I'm ready for round 2 haha.

It's entertaining, if nothing else

- poopmouth



Best argument I have...

1 Kessel, or 2 more Hornqvist types.

Lets face it, the assets to get him aren't a big deal, because we find a way to waste them anyway
drummer829
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.12.2010

Jun 26 @ 8:08 AM ET
Sorry guys. This is a BIG rumor. I don't know who this "reporter" is - but this seems impossible. (Maybe Penguins feel TOR is playing around with these Kessel rumors so they leak this rumor. I try to find real info - so this could just be BS on twitter.

https://twitter.com/KBJel...status/614304920582402048

Kessel and JVR for Letang pending a Scuderi buyout.

I don't know anything about this reporter, Kyle Bennett.

- so_buzz11


Letang should be considered untouchable unless he's being traded for a younger top 4 dman and a top 6 winger. I think of the blues/Avs trade: E. Johnson for Shattenkirk and Stewart.
cap1681
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Verona, PA
Joined: 02.04.2010

Jun 26 @ 8:09 AM ET
The closer we get to the draft, the worse my feeling gets that JR us going to make a huge mistake.
BourbonCounty
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.08.2015

Jun 26 @ 8:09 AM ET
Best argument I have...

1 Kessel, or 2 more Hornqvist types.

Lets face it, the assets to get him aren't a big deal, because we find a way to waste them anyway

- Guile


The assets to get him are a big deal in this case.. Dumo/Harrington/Pouliot/Maatta all will be in prominent roles moving forward. I would rather sign Frolik, deal Sutter and maybe add Dumo/Harrington if the piece coming back would be worth it, then sign Fehr.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Jun 26 @ 8:13 AM ET
The assets to get him are a big deal in this case.. Dumo/Harrington/Pouliot/Maatta all will be in prominent roles moving forward. I would rather sign Frolik, deal Sutter and maybe add Dumo/Harrington if the piece coming back would be worth it, then sign Fehr.
- BourbonCounty



Well, I am in a slight denial of Kessel's value, and wanting to believe the rumor that its actually lower because of his cap hit and such.

If it would take just... lets say, Kapanen, Harrington, our 2016 1st, and whatever vet contract they are willing to take on (Scud hopefully, more likely Kunitz), does this become a yes?

I can look at that an call it two 1sts and a 2nd round in value... nothing to sneeze at honestly.
senstroll
Location: New Fan, Needs to watch Ballet, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Jun 26 @ 8:14 AM ET
Like a few have mentioned, if the Pens are going for anyone from the Leafs it should be JVR. Good as Kessel is, unless the Leafs eat $2M in cap or are willing to accept a reduced package like Kapanen and Harrington, the deal would be too burdensome on the Pens.

I would give up much more for JVR and his contract.

- MacPatty


this is 100% false
Its not even close
Cptmjl
New York Islanders
Joined: 11.05.2011

Jun 26 @ 8:15 AM ET
The assets to get him are a big deal in this case.. Dumo/Harrington/Pouliot/Maatta all will be in prominent roles moving forward. I would rather sign Frolik, deal Sutter and maybe add Dumo/Harrington if the piece coming back would be worth it, then sign Fehr.
- BourbonCounty

It's funny how I said you guys should go after Fehr in free agency before the playoffs started and I was laughed off the thread and now he has seemed to grown in popularity the last few weeks.
lpstjg
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 05.28.2015

Jun 26 @ 8:16 AM ET
The closer we get to the draft, the worse my feeling gets that JR us going to make a huge mistake.
- cap1681


I feel the same when I see the Pens linked to all those old players that are on the move or available on the market.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Jun 26 @ 8:16 AM ET
It's funny how I said you guys should go after Fehr in free agency before the playoffs started and I was laughed off the thread and now he has seemed to grown in popularity the last few weeks.
- Cptmjl



Pretty sure we like to laugh you off no matter what you say
Cptmjl
New York Islanders
Joined: 11.05.2011

Jun 26 @ 8:16 AM ET
Pretty sure we like to laugh you off no matter what you say
- Guile

That's OK I come over here for a laugh. At least we can entertain each other.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Jun 26 @ 8:17 AM ET
That's OK I come over here for a laugh. At least we can entertain each other.
- Cptmjl



Still don't think you can outdo the two blackhawk trolls we had appearing in here this week... the one was hilarious, brand new account that bought a year membership XD
lpstjg
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 05.28.2015

Jun 26 @ 8:18 AM ET
Letang should be considered untouchable unless he's being traded for a younger top 4 dman and a top 6 winger. I think of the blues/Avs trade: E. Johnson for Shattenkirk and Stewart.
- drummer829


Yeah I just don't see how we could trade Letang right now. The defense would be a even hot mess right now without him in the lineup and bringing Kessel + JVR doesn't give us much cap to go out and try to sign a Dman to replace him. Also, he would have to waive his NTC for Toronto.

Also, that same "reporter" is also reporting :
Pens are currently looking at swapping Pouliot for Cam Atkinson and David Clarkson


So we would have wayyyy too many forwards and no defense. Sounds about right.
Cptmjl
New York Islanders
Joined: 11.05.2011

Jun 26 @ 8:21 AM ET
Still don't think you can outdo the two blackhawk trolls we had appearing in here this week... the one was hilarious, brand new account that bought a year membership XD
- Guile

Give me some time. Just waiting to see what you guys give up for Kessel.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Jun 26 @ 8:21 AM ET
Yeah I just don't see how we could trade Letang right now. The defense would be a even hot mess right now without him in the lineup and bringing Kessel + JVR doesn't give us much cap to go out and try to sign a Dman to replace him. Also, he would have to waive his NTC for Toronto.

Also, that same "reporter" is also reporting :
Pens are currently looking at swapping Pouliot for Cam Atkinson and David Clarkson


So we would have wayyyy too many forwards and no defense. Sounds about right.

- lpstjg



Clarkson???


Atkinson is a fine piece... but not for Pouliot
madmike71
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 12.21.2006

Jun 26 @ 8:23 AM ET
The closer we get to the draft, the worse my feeling gets that JR us going to make a huge mistake.
- cap1681


I feel the same way. After the Despres trade, it's hard to trust the guy. My only consolation is he recognized how badly he fvcked up and seems intent on not doing something that dumb again.
poopmouth
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 02.02.2007

Jun 26 @ 8:23 AM ET
Best argument I have...

1 Kessel, or 2 more Hornqvist types.

Lets face it, the assets to get him aren't a big deal, because we find a way to waste them anyway

- Guile


hahaha nice.

i still hold the stance that 1 cheap year of Maatta, salary relief in the form of Spaling and Sutter, and the 2nd rounder should be enough to land Kessel.

and if that isn't enough, then just move on.

Players making what they would make in free agency just shouldnt have a ton of young, controllable assets traded for them.

Let's just say Kessel was a free agent and would a agree to an 8 million a year deal. You can also sign Frolik for 5 million. Yeah Kessel is better, but you can also address fewer other spots on the team.

Therefore, you should give up as many assets for Kessel as you do for Frolik. 0.

Following that, since Toronto wants a Maatta or a Pouliot (accourding to dkonpittsburghsports.com), then PIT must also send them some bad value to cancel out the good value of Maatta or Pouliot. Maatta is underpaid by about $5 million this season, and then next season he'll get bumped up to market value. Therefore, the asset that is Olli Maatta has a value of +$5 million (market value of ~6, minus actual salary of ~1).

The "assets" that are Sutter and Spaling probably have a value of something like -$2 million. So it's still +$3 million + a 2nd rounder in Toronto's favor.

And this idea isn't all that far off what the Rangers gave up for Nash.

2 decent players who also made more money than Sutter + Spaling (let's call their value $0), a decent risky prospect, and a 1st rounder.

i'd imagine the pens could get a decent risky prospect and a 1st rounder for Maatta.

So... i think that would be a FAIR deal. Hopefully my logic makes sense.

Throw in bidding wars, and the fact that they can wait for a team to overpay. They'll probably receive more in a trade than my proposal. But i wouldnt want the pens to be the ones doing it at that point
Cptmjl
New York Islanders
Joined: 11.05.2011

Jun 26 @ 8:24 AM ET
Clarkson???


Atkinson is a fine piece... but not for Pouliot

- Guile

You don't think trading Maatta for Kessel is a good idea do you?
Cptmjl
New York Islanders
Joined: 11.05.2011

Jun 26 @ 8:25 AM ET
hahaha nice.

i still hold the stance that 1 cheap year of Maatta, salary relief in the form of Spaling and Sutter, and the 2nd rounder should be enough to land Kessel.

and if that isn't enough, then just move on.

Players making what they would make in free agency just shouldnt have a ton of young, controllable assets traded for them.

Let's just say Kessel was a free agent and would a agree to an 8 million a year deal. You can also sign Frolik for 5 million. Yeah Kessel is better, but you can also address fewer other spots on the team.

Therefore, you should give up as many assets for Kessel as you do for Frolik. 0.

Following that, since Toronto wants a Maatta or a Pouliot (accourding to dkonpittsburghsports.com), then PIT must also send them some bad value to cancel out the good value of Maatta or Pouliot. Maatta is underpaid by about $5 million this season, and then next season he'll get bumped up to market value. Therefore, the asset that is Olli Maatta has a value of +$5 million (market value of ~6, minus actual salary of ~1).

The "assets" that are Sutter and Spaling probably have a value of something like -$2 million. So it's still +$3 million + a 2nd rounder in Toronto's favor.

And this idea isn't all that far off what the Rangers gave up for Nash.

2 decent players who also made more money than Sutter + Spaling (let's call their value $0), a decent risky prospect, and a 1st rounder.

i'd imagine the pens could get a decent risky prospect and a 1st rounder for Maatta.

So... i think that would be a FAIR deal. Hopefully my logic makes sense.

- poopmouth

nope
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Jun 26 @ 8:27 AM ET
You don't think trading Maatta for Kessel is a good idea do you?
- Cptmjl



If it was structured near what the guy above me said, where Maatta is the only piece of high value... I'd consider it.


But, not dumping Sutter and Spaling... find a way to wiggle Scuds in there... Maatta, 2016 1st, and Scuds for Kessel.

Sutter and Spaling can be dealt elsewhere separately to recoup some assets, and then we sign Franson or such to help anchor the D.


The way its going to go down should we very likely not get Kessel... is we keep either Maatta or Pouliot in the future. Don't see us being able to afford both with Letang here. Or of course, its Pouliot instead of Maatta being traded.
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