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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: Of Matchups And Men
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Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jun 5 @ 2:59 PM ET
Didn't Savard give his spot up in the lineup so someone else could get their name on the Cup?

By the way, that was one of the best days for me as a hockey fan and a Savard fan...Hated Chelios when he came over because I didn't want Savard gone...Still hate Chelios...

- captainserious


No. Savard was injured with a broken foot, IIRC.
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jun 5 @ 3:00 PM ET
Wiz,
Quick question on Panarin and Reilly. If they were draft eligible (and I know they aren't!) where would you expect them to be drafted? Both 1st rounders? Love to hear your thoughts on those two.

- PitMartin7


Can't link to it but I saw a comment about Panarin being a 1st rounder and someone linked on an earlier Cordell blog on Reilly that he could have been top or bottom 15 this year (Can't remember which).... TWT.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jun 5 @ 3:02 PM ET
What do you mean by he did this to himself?
- vabeachbear


He made the Canadien Dollar shrink.He made trades using draft picks that basically add up to a Cup:30th overall, two seconds for Lord Stanley's Cup.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jun 5 @ 3:03 PM ET
Agreed....

I posted this a few threads ago but my guess.........and assuming Bowman digs on Saad and will sacrifice others to keep him regardless of an offer sheet or not:

Your untouchable core: Kane, Saad, Toews Keith, Seabrook, Hammer

Hossa won't be traded due to his recapture storm cloud. Crawford may be traded.......and so on.

They will continue to find veterans on retained salary, see Versteeg, who are versatile so while EVERYONE can sit here and say Versteeg is gone, like the so called hockey "experts" on local radio shows or 5 page print outs did last year, guess what.......baring a LARGE return it won't happen, because they need him to fill out the roster......

Same with Shaw who's cap hit is low.

The guy I am VERY intrigued to monitor is Kruger. What can a top heavy team afford to pay Kruger especially if they get smoked on Saad? Can they sacrifice ANOTHER play to keep 16?

I will say unlike prior to 2011, I think Bowman has some decent college UFAs and KHL players who may be steps ahead of the Rockford contigent. So hopefully in a perfect world you only have to trade 2 of 3 in Sharp, Bickell, and Crawford to stay cap complaint. What will be interesting is out of 10 and 50 who goes.......Value for 50 may never be higher and you have 2 CHEAP NHL caliber goalies below him.......not sure outside of the Russian, you have a top 6 prospect ready to jump in for 10.

- SteveRain


Hossa isn't going anywhere either, Steve. For a few reasons. No one is trading for his contract. Plus, I really think the Hawks want him to retire as a Hawk.
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jun 5 @ 3:04 PM ET
Can I ask what you think the ceiling in regards to dollars and cap hit the Hawks should set for Kruger?

I have my number but curious to see what others fit in at.....

Remember cap is going to be 70-71 per Bettman and that's ASSUMING the 5% escalator is kicked in. Bowman got burnt by a lower cap this summer........I can't see him allowing that ho happen...........twice.

- SteveRain


Kyle Brodziak reportedly wants $3m plus if he goes UFA. Not sure if that is a comp. He scores more but Krugs is much more valuable IMO. UFA vs RFA too.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 5 @ 3:07 PM ET
What do you mean by he did this to himself?
- vabeachbear


Winning comes with a price.......

This roster and cap situation is the one created. he can't blame Dale for this, and he has a lot of limits on where he can move assets based upon all the NMC he has given out.

That's what I'm implying.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 5 @ 3:08 PM ET
Hossa isn't going anywhere either, Steve. For a few reasons. No one is trading for his contract. Plus, I really think the Hawks want him to retire as a Hawk.
- Elbows15


Agreed....that recapture disaster is his insurance.

Plus, he hasn't slowed down........
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jun 5 @ 3:09 PM ET
Can I ask what you think the ceiling in regards to dollars and cap hit the Hawks should set for Kruger?

I have my number but curious to see what others fit in at.....

Remember cap is going to be 70-71 per Bettman and that's ASSUMING the 5% escalator is kicked in. Bowman got burnt by a lower cap this summer........I can't see him allowing that ho happen...........twice.

- SteveRain


2.5M is the highest I would go on Kruger. Would prefer 2. The simple fact is Kruger is "elite" in his role. If you look at his advanced metrics they are staggering.
He starts primarily in his own zone and has the ability to flip the ice.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 5 @ 3:15 PM ET
2.5M is the highest I would go on Kruger. Would prefer 2. The simple fact is Kruger is "elite" in his role. If you look at his advanced metrics they are staggering.
He starts primarily in his own zone and has the ability to flip the ice.

- Elbows15


I was thinking 2 as well............

Here you go........this is rough but just an idea..

Fs: Toews, Saad (at worst case 6 mil per year), Kane, Versteeg, Hossa, Teuvo, Shaw, Kruger (at 2.5), Desjardin (2 mil based on his ability to also play C), Hartman, Danult, Russian kid, Braun

Forward cap hits: 44.865

Ds: Keith, Seabrook, Hammer, TVR, Johns, Rundblad (1.1 unless Rozi would take this), and Cumiskey (.850)

D cap hits: 19.105

Goalies: 50/33

G cap hits: 6.587

Total team: 70.557

Prospects could be switched out.......but I don't see how Oduya stays, Bickell has to go, and out of 50 vs 10 with 6 mil vs 5.9 cap hits, 1 has to go.

Even if you say keep Sharp, trade 50, Raanta comes at .750 and you only net about 200K by deducting a prospect at .850 plus Sharps 100K less cap hit.

SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 5 @ 3:19 PM ET
He made the Canadien Dollar shrink.He made trades using draft picks that basically add up to a Cup:30th overall, two seconds for Lord Stanley's Cup.
- wiz1901


I guess inflated deal to Bickell doesn't count, or his horrible trade for a 40 yr old d man past his prime, or the fact that he very well could be staring down at least 1 offer sheet, and possibly having to walk from an arbitration hearing for Kruger.....funny when did that same scenario last happen?

Championships matter.......he gets the out most respect and admiration for that......however, this cap scenario looming is HIS baby, and seems like some bad long term planning...gee.......when did bad long term planning last haunt this team? And what is that same common trait..........
Bjm84
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.29.2013

Jun 5 @ 3:21 PM ET
2.5M is the highest I would go on Kruger. Would prefer 2. The simple fact is Kruger is "elite" in his role. If you look at his advanced metrics they are staggering.
He starts primarily in his own zone and has the ability to flip the ice.

- Elbows15


2.5 million is fair, too.
Bjm84
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.29.2013

Jun 5 @ 3:23 PM ET
I was thinking 2 as well............

Here you go........this is rough but just an idea..

Fs: Toews, Saad (at worst case 6 mil per year), Kane, Versteeg, Hossa, Teuvo, Shaw, Kruger (at 2.5), Desjardin (2 mil based on his ability to also play C), Hartman, Danult, Russian kid, Braun

Forward cap hits: 44.865

Ds: Keith, Seabrook, Hammer, TVR, Johns, Rundblad (1.1 unless Rozi would take this), and Cumiskey (.850)

D cap hits: 19.105

Goalies: 50/33

G cap hits: 6.587

Total team: 70.557

Prospects could be switched out.......but I don't see how Oduya stays, Bickell has to go, and out of 50 vs 10 with 6 mil vs 5.9 cap hits, 1 has to go.

Even if you say keep Sharp, trade 50, Raanta comes at .750 and you only net about 200K by deducting a prospect at .850 plus Sharps 100K less cap hit.

- SteveRain


There is no logic in this universe that has Stan trading Crawford instead of Sharp. If anything, he trades them both. Sharp is as good as gone.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jun 5 @ 3:25 PM ET
I was thinking 2 as well............

Here you go........this is rough but just an idea..

Fs: Toews, Saad (at worst case 6 mil per year), Kane, Versteeg, Hossa, Teuvo, Shaw, Kruger (at 2.5), Desjardin (2 mil based on his ability to also play C), Hartman, Danult, Russian kid, Braun

Forward cap hits: 44.865

Ds: Keith, Seabrook, Hammer, TVR, Johns, Rundblad (1.1 unless Rozi would take this), and Cumiskey (.850)

D cap hits: 19.105

Goalies: 50/33

G cap hits: 6.587

Total team: 70.557

Prospects could be switched out.......but I don't see how Oduya stays, Bickell has to go, and out of 50 vs 10 with 6 mil vs 5.9 cap hits, 1 has to go.

Even if you say keep Sharp, trade 50, Raanta comes at .750 and you only net about 200K by deducting a prospect at .850 plus Sharps 100K less cap hit.

- SteveRain


I never could see how Oduya could stay unless the cap was going up to 75M.
No way I would give Desjardins 2. He is as replaceable as they come. imo. Not to say I don't think he has played well but I would give Kruger more even at the cost of Desjardins.

My team doesn't have either Rundblad or Cumiskey on it. They both suck.

IF the Hawks can move Sharp, Bickell and Versteeg, they will be fine. Only Sharp should garner a decent return. The rest? The value is cap space. Anything you get after that is a bonus.

Getting picks to replace the ones traded would be great but Bowman has already recouped those picks in my view. Signing Baun, Kero and Panarin did that. With the added binus that these players are more of a known quantity in terms of development. Add in TVR and possibly Reilly? It gets even better.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Jun 5 @ 3:26 PM ET
Agreed....

I posted this a few threads ago but my guess.........and assuming Bowman digs on Saad and will sacrifice others to keep him regardless of an offer sheet or not:

Your untouchable core: Kane, Saad, Toews Keith, Seabrook, Hammer

Hossa won't be traded due to his recapture storm cloud. Crawford may be traded.......and so on.

They will continue to find veterans on retained salary, see Versteeg, who are versatile so while EVERYONE can sit here and say Versteeg is gone, like the so called hockey "experts" on local radio shows or 5 page print outs did last year, guess what.......baring a LARGE return it won't happen, because they need him to fill out the roster......

Same with Shaw who's cap hit is low.

The guy I am VERY intrigued to monitor is Kruger. What can a top heavy team afford to pay Kruger especially if they get smoked on Saad? Can they sacrifice ANOTHER play to keep 16?

I will say unlike prior to 2011, I think Bowman has some decent college UFAs and KHL players who may be steps ahead of the Rockford contigent. So hopefully in a perfect world you only have to trade 2 of 3 in Sharp, Bickell, and Crawford to stay cap complaint. What will be interesting is out of 10 and 50 who goes.......Value for 50 may never be higher and you have 2 CHEAP NHL caliber goalies below him.......not sure outside of the Russian, you have a top 6 prospect ready to jump in for 10.

- SteveRain


Actually I think Bowman has done a real good job to set the team up for the transition period ahead and weather the storm in the summer - assuming some or all of these guys can play at the NHL level - Danault, McNeill, TVR, Pokka, Johns, Paliotta, Gustafsson, Hartman, Ross, maybe even Reilly. And they know now that TT can play.

Stanbo will pay a big price for Saad but not go to the ridiculous for a winger. Kruger would be a significant loss but he can't pay something stupid for a player who scores a couple goals a year. That's why Bolland had to go, paid too much too soon. Kruger is worth $2.2M /year IMO, anything over that is getting expensive. But he would be a perfect fit with the Islanders, Bruins, Vancouver and a few other teams. Trade possibility to get the 1st rounder back?

Watched a replay last night of the Islanders playing Rangers in the deciding game of a playoff series the year after they had won 4 Cups in a row. That was a tired, aged team by that point playing on fumes. Bill Torrey admitted he had hung on to too many of his veterans too long out of loyalty. Best to bite the bullet on a few Hawks before same thing happens to them.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jun 5 @ 3:29 PM ET
I guess inflated deal to Bickell doesn't count, or his horrible trade for a 40 yr old d man past his prime, or the fact that he very well could be staring down at least 1 offer sheet, and possibly having to walk from an arbitration hearing for Kruger.....funny when did that same scenario last happen?

Championships matter.......he gets the out most respect and admiration for that......however, this cap scenario looming is HIS baby, and seems like some bad long term planning...gee.......when did bad long term planning last haunt this team? And what is that same common trait..........

- SteveRain


If Ryan Johnsen didn't garner an offer sheet I doubt Saad does. I personally think that will handled before it even gets to that point. There has been nothing to indicate that contract talks between Saad and the Hawks have been contentious.
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jun 5 @ 3:31 PM ET
I never could see how Oduya could stay unless the cap was going up to 75M.
No way I would give Desjardins 2. He is as replaceable as they come. imo. Not to say I don't think he has played well but I would give Kruger more even at the cost of Desjardins.

My team doesn't have either Rundblad or Cumiskey on it. They both suck.

IF the Hawks can move Sharp, Bickell and Versteeg, they will be fine. Only Sharp should garner a decent return. The rest? The value is cap space. Anything you get after that is a bonus.

Getting picks to replace the ones traded would be great but Bowman has already recouped those picks in my view. Signing Baun, Kero and Panarin did that. With the added binus that these players are more of a known quantity in terms of development. Add in TVR and possibly Reilly? It gets even better.

- Elbows15


Agree 100%... and it could get better if they can sign Blueger, Hyman or some others that may come out. I'd love to see Krugs stay and Desi on his current deal or in that range. Not more than $1m.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jun 5 @ 3:34 PM ET
Actually I think Bowman has done a real good job to set the team up for the transition period ahead and weather the storm in the summer - assuming some or all of these guys can play at the NHL level - Danault, McNeill, TVR, Pokka, Johns, Paliotta, Gustafsson, Hartman, Ross, maybe even Reilly. And they know now that TT can play.

Stanbo will pay a big price for Saad but not go to the ridiculous for a winger. Kruger would be a significant loss but he can't pay something stupid for a player who scores a couple goals a year. That's why Bolland had to go, paid too much too soon. Kruger is worth $2.2M /year IMO, anything over that is getting expensive. But he would be a perfect fit with the Islanders, Bruins, Vancouver and a few other teams. Trade possibility to get the 1st rounder back?

Watched a replay last night of the Islanders playing Rangers in the deciding game of a playoff series the year after they had won 4 Cups in a row. That was a tired, aged team by that point playing on fumes. Bill Torrey admitted he had hung on to too many of his veterans too long out of loyalty. Best to bite the bullet on a few Hawks before same thing happens to them.

- RickJ


I personally like the thought of young D-men being paired and learning with Keith, Hjalmarsson and Seabrook.

Edit: Also. These kids better come ready in training camp because there will be spots and as we have seen, where you were drafted won't mean squat to Q. Playing the right way will.
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jun 5 @ 3:34 PM ET
If Ryan Johnsen didn't garner an offer sheet I doubt Saad does. I personally think that will handled before it even gets to that point. There has been nothing to indicate that contract talks between Saad and the Hawks have been contentious.
- Elbows15


I wonder which GMs Rozner "surveyed". Sounds like a bitter group to me. Odds are less than 2 of them even had the picks to write an OS. Much less the cap or budget.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jun 5 @ 3:40 PM ET
I wonder which GMs Rozner "surveyed". Sounds like a bitter group to me. Odds are less than 2 of them even had the picks to write an OS. Much less the cap or budget.
- tredbrta



Can you think of any contract talks between this management group and players that have been contentious? I can't.

They identify the players whom they want to build around and get them signed.
Hjalmarsson maybe the first time? But even that to me was a case of trying to get things worked out due to the cap hell they were in more than not wanting to get him signed.

I never had a problem with losing Niemi. I thought his demands were ridiculous.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jun 5 @ 3:42 PM ET
Kyle Brodziak reportedly wants $3m plus if he goes UFA. Not sure if that is a comp. He scores more but Krugs is much more valuable IMO. UFA vs RFA too.
- tredbrta


Six years OLDER than Kruger...
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jun 5 @ 3:46 PM ET
Can you think of any contract talks between this management group and players that have been contentious? I can't.

They identify the players whom they want to build around and get them signed.
Hjalmarsson maybe the first time? But even that to me was a case of trying to get things worked out due to the cap hell they were in more than not wanting to get him signed.

I never had a problem with losing Niemi. I thought his demands were ridiculous.

- Elbows15


Hammer is a good example. The relationship was so good it almost looked like he took a discount in his last deal BECAUSE of the offer sheet.

Everything from Saad and management is highly positive - even more than one would usually expect. He has close friends on the team. Heard he is dating a local too and is looking to move into Richards and Kane building (hearsay from someone down our row).
Yikes726
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Plainfield, IL
Joined: 03.22.2013

Jun 5 @ 3:58 PM ET
If Ryan Johnsen didn't garner an offer sheet I doubt Saad does. I personally think that will handled before it even gets to that point. There has been nothing to indicate that contract talks between Saad and the Hawks have been contentious.
- Elbows15


I really hadn't heard anything negative, but has there been anything positive yet in the talks? I hope they can keep him
ChicagoDave
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 02.20.2013

Jun 5 @ 3:58 PM ET
He's been cleared, 'Bows.

http://www.thescore.com/news/775119

- MartiniMan



I still think Crawford is at the top of the market (IF) the Hawks are going to shop him.

Would you rather have Lehner and his concussion history

or

A Stanley Cup winning goalie???
Marlowe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wild Wild West, IL
Joined: 06.29.2014

Jun 5 @ 3:59 PM ET
From today's skate - Kruger and Keith not there (rest day)

FORWARDS
SAAD TOEWS KANE
VERSTEEG RICHARDS HOSSA
SHARP. VERMETTE. TERAVAINEN.
DESJARDINS BICKELL SHAW

D PAIRS
HJALMARSSON VAN REIMSDYK
ODUYA RUNBLAD
CUMISKEY SEABROOK
DMChi2010
Joined: 06.03.2014

Jun 5 @ 3:59 PM ET
Hossa isn't going anywhere either, Steve. For a few reasons. No one is trading for his contract. Plus, I really think the Hawks want him to retire as a Hawk.
- Elbows15


They want Hossa to "retire" as a Hawk, including how ever many years of LTIR it takes to wipe the contract off the books and not suffer a ~$5M cap hit for a retiree.
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