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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: Of Matchups And Men
Author Message
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jun 5 @ 2:12 PM ET
You can only sell high is the market lest you sell high.

Clearly Robin Lenher is available and Buffalo (staff has a connection), Edmonton and maybe San Jose are interested.
San Jose might be kicking the tires on NYR's Talbot even more.

Here's the think teams like Ottawa are fielding offers, but their GM has already commented as many experts, that a goalie can be traded with the return being substantial. I herad Pierre McGuire make the same comment this morning, that the return is what the market will bear. He said you can't count on the past as any indication of value, citing the way after the huge run for the Habs that 25 yr old Jaroslav Halak made when he usurped the net from Carey Price and how the trade return from the Blues was two prospects the not so good Ian Schultz and the promising Lars Eller.

You just don't know what the teams LOOKING for Goalies really think about the goalies available.

And let's look at it the other way: if you are one of the aforementioned teams, are they REALLY gonna be willing to give up REAL assets for promise?
I honestly know I can't tell you what Lehner is worth, what Cam Talbot is worth or how important teams think it is to acquire them.
Same with Corey Crawford.
If you are far from the chance of doing more than competing, why would you pay big for an established netminder with that larger Cap hit (not so large for many clubs) unless you think he puts you over a hump...and even then that team is not gonna go nuts to sell the house, imo.

- wiz1901


True.

The market is based on supply and demand.

What I am hearing is that Crawford could go this summer . . . or next . . . but that will depend on what the market is, and how much salary the Hawks need to shed in order to do two specific things:

Sign Brandon Saad. And sign Brent Seabrook.

The dollars for Saad will likely be recouped this summer. Patrick Sharp on an American Airlines 737 to Miami, something like that, a bag of pucks and/or a bad, lower dollar contract coming the other way.

I am no longer hearing Oduya will do a cap friendly deal to stay. I would now say odds are, he’s gone.

But this summer? Crawford’s value will likely be extremely high and you can talk about Eddie Lack or Robin Lehner or Craig Anderson or Niemi, but Crawford would be the prize chip coming off this season and playoffs, at his age. And that’s not to say those guys suck. It’s all about perception in the present moment.

I think a lot depends on what is offered, what they can get for Sharp, IF they can get anything for Bickell.

I also think if a team offer sheets Kruger, he will be gone. The Hawks will qualify him at a level where a team would only give up a 2nd or 3rd round pick for him and can offer him more salary. If I was a team looking to upgrade forward defense, PK, faceoffs, boom. It’s a no-brainer.

Philip Danault does not step in and just replace all of what Kruger does but he is good enough to grow into that role.

captainserious
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.24.2010

Jun 5 @ 2:14 PM ET
You mean like Denis Savard did when the habs won the Cup???????
- wiz1901



Didn't Savard give his spot up in the lineup so someone else could get their name on the Cup?

By the way, that was one of the best days for me as a hockey fan and a Savard fan...Hated Chelios when he came over because I didn't want Savard gone...Still hate Chelios...
EKB13
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.18.2009

Jun 5 @ 2:16 PM ET
Philip Danault does not step in and just replace all of what Kruger does but he is good enough to grow into that role.
- John Jaeckel


Agreed. However, he'll look more like Bolland then he will Kruger.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 5 @ 2:17 PM ET
I'm very hopeful that Cooper liked his team game a lot after looking at the tape yesterday. If he did, and doesn't alter much, that's a HUGE mistake IMO. Outside of the 1st, 15 minutes in which Tampa was playing like it was the last 2 minutes and they were down a goal, the Hawks had the better of the play far more often then Tampa did.

As far as the hawks go, subbing in TVR for Rundblad would be a step up. Rundblad was nervous, had a bunch of unforced turnovers, and the only time I really noticed the Hawks in trouble later in the game........there was #5 on my screen. Giving seabrook a quick footed D man, would do wonders.

Still think survive, the 1st, 10 minutes Saturday tied and the Lightning will press and the transition odd man rushes should flood in.

lastly, saw Uncle Barry's article today......fascinating about him polling 4 GMs...I'm going to guess those are Wilson, Murray, Bergervin, and Chevy. Just a hunch......and 2 thinking Saad will get offered sheeted, and 2 also thinking the hawks won't match.....if it sniffs 6 million a year......We can debate that after this series........

Bickell out with a concussion, doubt we see him any time soon, so it's Versteeg's spot to lose and it may take a few awful gaffles for Nordstrom to unseat him if Bickell isn't ready.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jun 5 @ 2:17 PM ET
Agreed. However, he'll look more like Bolland then he will Kruger.
- EKolb13



I'll take that.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Jun 5 @ 2:18 PM ET
Jonathan Toews was supposed to have "Captain Serious" on the Cup but gave up the space so Mayer's name would appear.
You think he wouldn't do the same for KT?
From Fansided
in a recent interview Jamal Mayers told a story about Toews. Mayers had been a part time player with the Blackhawks in 2011-12 and 2012-13. In the 2012-13 season, Mayers did not meet the NHL requirements for his name to be engraved on the Cup. Mayers has been in the league for 16 seasons. The Blackhawks would petition the league to have Mayers name on the cup. Mayers told a story that exemplifies what type of leader Toews is. Toews went to General Manager Stan Bowman and stated, “They don’t have to put Captain on the Cup if it means helps getting Jammer’s name on it. If that helps make room, I’ll do it.” Bowman would tell him it wouldn’t come to that.

Toews is so selfless in that he would have his title, an honor bestowed upon by the Chicago Blackhawks, left off the Stanley Cup for a fellow teammate’s name to be placed on the Cup.

- wiz1901


Will tell you one more thing about #19 - in the summer of 2013 when he probably had 100 other things he could be doing, he brought the Stanley Cup on a Saturday afternoon to Misericordia. The thrill it gave all of those residents with 'developmental disabilities' was really something to see.
captainserious
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.24.2010

Jun 5 @ 2:19 PM ET
True.

The market is based on supply and demand.

What I am hearing is that Crawford could go this summer . . . or next . . . but that will depend on what the market is, and how much salary the Hawks need to shed in order to do two specific things:

Sign Brandon Saad. And sign Brent Seabrook.

The dollars for Saad will likely be recouped this summer. Patrick Sharp on an American Airlines 737 to Miami, something like that, a bag of pucks and/or a bad, lower dollar contract coming the other way.

I am no longer hearing Oduya will do a cap friendly deal to stay. I would now say odds are, he’s gone.

But this summer? Crawford’s value will likely be extremely high and you can talk about Eddie Lack or Robin Lehner or Craig Anderson or Niemi, but Crawford would be the prize chip coming off this season and playoffs, at his age. And that’s not to say those guys suck. It’s all about perception in the present moment.

I think a lot depends on what is offered, what they can get for Sharp, IF they can get anything for Bickell.

I also think if a team offer sheets Kruger, he will be gone. The Hawks will qualify him at a level where a team would only give up a 2nd or 3rd round pick for him and can offer him more salary. If I was a team looking to upgrade forward defense, PK, faceoffs, boom. It’s a no-brainer.

Philip Danault does not step in and just replace all of what Kruger does but he is good enough to grow into that role.

- John Jaeckel


You really think the Hawks will let Kruger go? I would think they would sign him asap,because honestly,after Richards and Vermette leave,this team is extremely weak down the middle...Plus Kruger is a not only a Bowman guy but a Q guy as well...I'd hate to think they would keep Steeg and let Kruger be signed,rather than try and unload Steeg and sign Krugs even if it is for a bit more
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 5 @ 2:20 PM ET
True.

The market is based on supply and demand.

What I am hearing is that Crawford could go this summer . . . or next . . . but that will depend on what the market is, and how much salary the Hawks need to shed in order to do two specific things:

Sign Brandon Saad. And sign Brent Seabrook.

The dollars for Saad will likely be recouped this summer. Patrick Sharp on an American Airlines 737 to Miami, something like that, a bag of pucks and/or a bad, lower dollar contract coming the other way.

I am no longer hearing Oduya will do a cap friendly deal to stay. I would now say odds are, he’s gone.

But this summer? Crawford’s value will likely be extremely high and you can talk about Eddie Lack or Robin Lehner or Craig Anderson or Niemi, but Crawford would be the prize chip coming off this season and playoffs, at his age. And that’s not to say those guys suck. It’s all about perception in the present moment.

I think a lot depends on what is offered, what they can get for Sharp, IF they can get anything for Bickell.

I also think if a team offer sheets Kruger, he will be gone. The Hawks will qualify him at a level where a team would only give up a 2nd or 3rd round pick for him and can offer him more salary. If I was a team looking to upgrade forward defense, PK, faceoffs, boom. It’s a no-brainer.

Philip Danault does not step in and just replace all of what Kruger does but he is good enough to grow into that role.

- John Jaeckel


If Bryan Bickell is still on this team come opening night, I am going to need a massive amount of psycho therapy.

Oduya is gone. Petry just got 5 million and has the same cap hit as Keith. Oduya is > Petry. He is GONE.

I also won't discount Kruger being a casualty if Saad starts to sniff 5 million and up.

Very tough offseason to Bowamn, but he did this to himself. He also needs to try and recoup the draft picks he gave up at the deadline.
Hossa1881
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 07.01.2011

Jun 5 @ 2:21 PM ET
All good.. yea just noticed it switched from earlier today...
- golfbard



I miss it...

EKB13
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.18.2009

Jun 5 @ 2:24 PM ET
I'll take that.
- John Jaeckel


So will I.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jun 5 @ 2:31 PM ET
Didn't Savard give his spot up in the lineup so someone else could get their name on the Cup?

By the way, that was one of the best days for me as a hockey fan and a Savard fan...Hated Chelios when he came over because I didn't want Savard gone...Still hate Chelios...

- captainserious


came out in dress clothes for final win...

flyershockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: smh, NC
Joined: 07.09.2006

Jun 5 @ 2:32 PM ET
You two - knock it off.
- EKolb13



dont look at me bro...all i did was say ian cole isnt an interesting rfa option, which doesnt violate a damn thing here.
captainserious
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.24.2010

Jun 5 @ 2:34 PM ET
came out in dress clothes for final win...
- wiz1901


That is how I remember it
PitMartin7
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.28.2013

Jun 5 @ 2:37 PM ET
Wiz,
Quick question on Panarin and Reilly. If they were draft eligible (and I know they aren't!) where would you expect them to be drafted? Both 1st rounders? Love to hear your thoughts on those two.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Jun 5 @ 2:39 PM ET
If Bryan Bickell is still on this team come opening night, I am going to need a massive amount of psycho therapy.

Oduya is gone. Petry just got 5 million and has the same cap hit as Keith. Oduya is > Petry. He is GONE.

I also won't discount Kruger being a casualty if Saad starts to sniff 5 million and up.

Very tough offseason to Bowamn, but he did this to himself. He also needs to try and recoup the draft picks he gave up at the deadline.

- SteveRain


I've been saying this for months, long before very average defenceman were worth $5.5M/year for 6.

No way the Hawks go into next season and beyond with 3 Dman over the age of 30. It won't work in today's NHL if you want a winner.

If Johnny O scores himself a big new contract, more power to him - he's earned it.
BreakoutHockey
Location: Chicago area, IL
Joined: 06.12.2012

Jun 5 @ 2:42 PM ET
Wiz,
Quick question on Panarin and Reilly. If they were draft eligible (and I know they aren't!) where would you expect them to be drafted? Both 1st rounders? Love to hear your thoughts on those two.

- PitMartin7


I'm not Wiz, but I think Panarin would go anywhere from 8-15 and Reilly anywhere from 15-20.
DMChi2010
Joined: 06.03.2014

Jun 5 @ 2:44 PM ET
True.

The market is based on supply and demand.

What I am hearing is that Crawford could go this summer . . . or next . . . but that will depend on what the market is, and how much salary the Hawks need to shed in order to do two specific things:

Sign Brandon Saad. And sign Brent Seabrook.

The dollars for Saad will likely be recouped this summer. Patrick Sharp on an American Airlines 737 to Miami, something like that, a bag of pucks and/or a bad, lower dollar contract coming the other way.

I am no longer hearing Oduya will do a cap friendly deal to stay. I would now say odds are, he’s gone.

But this summer? Crawford’s value will likely be extremely high and you can talk about Eddie Lack or Robin Lehner or Craig Anderson or Niemi, but Crawford would be the prize chip coming off this season and playoffs, at his age. And that’s not to say those guys suck. It’s all about perception in the present moment.

I think a lot depends on what is offered, what they can get for Sharp, IF they can get anything for Bickell.

I also think if a team offer sheets Kruger, he will be gone. The Hawks will qualify him at a level where a team would only give up a 2nd or 3rd round pick for him and can offer him more salary. If I was a team looking to upgrade forward defense, PK, faceoffs, boom. It’s a no-brainer.

Philip Danault does not step in and just replace all of what Kruger does but he is good enough to grow into that role.

- John Jaeckel


Yikes… bad news on the Oduya and Kruger fronts. JJ, I don't know much about the Rockford prospects, and I didn't see some of the games where prospects played up with the Hawks. What's the (hopeful) plan for replacements for those leaving?

Sharp = Panarin ?
Bickell = Hartman/Baun ?
Richards = ???????????
Vermette = ??????????
Kruger = Danault?

If TVR is # 4D, then are Johns, Pokka, and Paliotta 5-7?
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jun 5 @ 2:44 PM ET
You can only sell high is the market lest you sell high.

Clearly Robin Lenher is available and Buffalo (staff has a connection), Edmonton and maybe San Jose are interested.
San Jose might be kicking the tires on NYR's Talbot even more.

Here's the think teams like Ottawa are fielding offers, but their GM has already commented as many experts, that a goalie can be traded with the return being substantial. I herad Pierre McGuire make the same comment this morning, that the return is what the market will bear. He said you can't count on the past as any indication of value, citing the way after the huge run for the Habs that 25 yr old Jaroslav Halak made when he usurped the net from Carey Price and how the trade return from the Blues was two prospects the not so good Ian Schultz and the promising Lars Eller.

You just don't know what the teams LOOKING for Goalies really think about the goalies available.

And let's look at it the other way: if you are one of the aforementioned teams, are they REALLY gonna be willing to give up REAL assets for promise?
I honestly know I can't tell you what Lehner is worth, what Cam Talbot is worth or how important teams think it is to acquire them.
Same with Corey Crawford.
If you are far from the chance of doing more than competing, why would you pay big for an established netminder with that larger Cap hit (not so large for many clubs) unless you think he puts you over a hump...and even then that team is not gonna go nuts to sell the house, imo.

- wiz1901


Goalies generally don't get much in return. Also. Lehner would be a huge risk at this point in time. He is still suffering from concussion symptoms and I have seen reports that he still unable to work out.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jun 5 @ 2:49 PM ET
True.

The market is based on supply and demand.

What I am hearing is that Crawford could go this summer . . . or next . . . but that will depend on what the market is, and how much salary the Hawks need to shed in order to do two specific things:

Sign Brandon Saad. And sign Brent Seabrook.

The dollars for Saad will likely be recouped this summer. Patrick Sharp on an American Airlines 737 to Miami, something like that, a bag of pucks and/or a bad, lower dollar contract coming the other way.

I am no longer hearing Oduya will do a cap friendly deal to stay. I would now say odds are, he’s gone.

But this summer? Crawford’s value will likely be extremely high and you can talk about Eddie Lack or Robin Lehner or Craig Anderson or Niemi, but Crawford would be the prize chip coming off this season and playoffs, at his age. And that’s not to say those guys suck. It’s all about perception in the present moment.

I think a lot depends on what is offered, what they can get for Sharp, IF they can get anything for Bickell.

I also think if a team offer sheets Kruger, he will be gone. The Hawks will qualify him at a level where a team would only give up a 2nd or 3rd round pick for him and can offer him more salary. If I was a team looking to upgrade forward defense, PK, faceoffs, boom. It’s a no-brainer.

Philip Danault does not step in and just replace all of what Kruger does but he is good enough to grow into that role.

- John Jaeckel


Teams aren't going to waste an offer sheet on a 4th line center no matter how good he is that role. And Kruger is probably one of the 3 best in that role. I can, however, see a team trading for his RFA rights.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 5 @ 2:49 PM ET
I've been saying this for months, long before very average defenceman were worth $5.5M/year for 6.

No way the Hawks go into next season and beyond with 3 Dman over the age of 30. It won't work in today's NHL if you want a winner.

If Johnny O scores himself a big new contract, more power to him - he's earned it.

- RickJ


Agreed....

I posted this a few threads ago but my guess.........and assuming Bowman digs on Saad and will sacrifice others to keep him regardless of an offer sheet or not:

Your untouchable core: Kane, Saad, Toews Keith, Seabrook, Hammer

Hossa won't be traded due to his recapture storm cloud. Crawford may be traded.......and so on.

They will continue to find veterans on retained salary, see Versteeg, who are versatile so while EVERYONE can sit here and say Versteeg is gone, like the so called hockey "experts" on local radio shows or 5 page print outs did last year, guess what.......baring a LARGE return it won't happen, because they need him to fill out the roster......

Same with Shaw who's cap hit is low.

The guy I am VERY intrigued to monitor is Kruger. What can a top heavy team afford to pay Kruger especially if they get smoked on Saad? Can they sacrifice ANOTHER play to keep 16?

I will say unlike prior to 2011, I think Bowman has some decent college UFAs and KHL players who may be steps ahead of the Rockford contigent. So hopefully in a perfect world you only have to trade 2 of 3 in Sharp, Bickell, and Crawford to stay cap complaint. What will be interesting is out of 10 and 50 who goes.......Value for 50 may never be higher and you have 2 CHEAP NHL caliber goalies below him.......not sure outside of the Russian, you have a top 6 prospect ready to jump in for 10.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 5 @ 2:53 PM ET
Teams aren't going to waste an offer sheet on a 4th line center no matter how good he is that role. And Kruger is probably one of the 3 best in that role. I can, however, see a team trading for his RFA rights.
- Elbows15


Can I ask what you think the ceiling in regards to dollars and cap hit the Hawks should set for Kruger?

I have my number but curious to see what others fit in at.....

Remember cap is going to be 70-71 per Bettman and that's ASSUMING the 5% escalator is kicked in. Bowman got burnt by a lower cap this summer........I can't see him allowing that ho happen...........twice.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Jun 5 @ 2:55 PM ET
I'll take that.
- John Jaeckel


Curious to hear how the two of you define the differences between Kruger and Bolland.

I've never seen Danault play other than a jr tourney a few years back for a period, so I'm interested.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 5 @ 2:56 PM ET
I haven't done a TON of research on it.......but I know the UFA class seemed to be pretty weak, but with a lower cap then originally expected for this year........just curious as to what the REAL market would be for Crawford or Sharp with a 5+ million cap hit.....even Bickell at 4 million, and the hawks not in a position to probably take back salary.

I forget if they can retain salary and not have it count against their own cap......but that's a Wirtz decision.

And with a deep draft......the market in regards to value for any of these guys starts to shrink quickly..........and I believe all 3 have full NMCs so they can also dictate the market.

MartiniMan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Santa Fe, NM
Joined: 10.01.2006

Jun 5 @ 2:57 PM ET
Goalies generally don't get much in return. Also. Lehner would be a huge risk at this point in time. He is still suffering from concussion symptoms and I have seen reports that he still unable to work out.
- Elbows15


He's been cleared, 'Bows.

http://www.thescore.com/news/775119
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Jun 5 @ 2:58 PM ET
If Bryan Bickell is still on this team come opening night, I am going to need a massive amount of psycho therapy.

Oduya is gone. Petry just got 5 million and has the same cap hit as Keith. Oduya is > Petry. He is GONE.

I also won't discount Kruger being a casualty if Saad starts to sniff 5 million and up.

Very tough offseason to Bowamn, but he did this to himself. He also needs to try and recoup the draft picks he gave up at the deadline.

- SteveRain


What do you mean by he did this to himself?
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