To me there seems to be a notable group at 3-5 and a drop after. You are right that anything can happen and all it takes is one team picking a player off the board (or rising before the end of the year) to change things.
- rmdevil313

and trades. Usually at least one big trade on draft day,

Kessel.

Hey Todd, could you list a quick top 10 in your opinion?

Right now I think mine goes:

1. McDavid
2. Eichel
3. Strome
5. Marner
4. Hanifin
10. Rantanen
9. Provorov
8. Barzal
6. Werenski
13. Crouse


Don't come after me with pitchforks about the 6th pick, guys. Just my thoughts, and I think Werenski goes earlier than most.
- BetterCallSaul

Fixed

Sounds like most of you guys are interested in Strome and Marner, and rightfully so. If one of the 2 is sitting at 4, would you package the 6 and Merrill for 4 and a mid rounder or two?

Sounds like most of you guys are interested in Strome and Marner, and rightfully so. If one of the 2 is sitting at 4, would you package the 6 and Merrill for 4 and a mid rounder or two?
- kfinl170

In a second.

so is this Strome vs. Marner. vs. Barzal comparison like Backstrom/Kopitar vs. Kane vs. in his prime Gomez?

interesting Marner had 1 less point in 4 less GP than Strome. 2 more goals, 3 less assists.

the consensus seems to be that Strome and Marner are that much better, and projected to be that much better, than Barzal... to warrant throwing in Merrill with the 1st to select them. The other option is taking Barzal and packaging Merrill/Gelinas with the 2nd for a young top 6 winger. But people still think it's worth adding 1 great player instead of 2 good players. Is this just a hunch, or are you guys really confident in this? Barzal is no scrub..

Read eichel might play another year of college ? He would still be entering this years draft though would he not or can he wait till next year if he decides not to go pro ?

Todd, How does Dylan Strome compare to his brother Ryan? Will Dylan be the better player?

Also is Hanifin a sure top two defender or a 3-4 defender..

Thanks
- sparky

Dylan just had a significantly better year than Ryan did in his draft season, so if you're looking at that as an indicator of what he'll become, Dylan may very well be a better player than Ryan, who just put up 50 points for the Isles this year. Dylan put up 45-84-129 in 68GP this year, while his brother Ryan put up 33-73-106 in 65GP in 2010-11.

I'd without a doubt trade the 36th overall pick to move up a couple spots to draft Strome, I'd probably even trade both 2nds if we get a later 2nd or a 3rd coming back the other way. Coming away with a top line center in the draft this year would make it a success no matter what happens with the other players we draft. I think he'll be a quality 1st line center in the NHL and that's something NJ needs desperately and that they're not going to find anywhere other than the draft. He may not excel in the NHL right away, but I think by year 2-3, he could be putting up 60+ points for us and that would be huge.

Sounds like most of you guys are interested in Strome and Marner, and rightfully so. If one of the 2 is sitting at 4, would you package the 6 and Merrill for 4 and a mid rounder or two?
- kfinl170

I'd take that, give you a kiss, , and then skip away happy to the tune of never gonna give you up

Read eichel might play another year of college ? He would still be entering this years draft though would he not or can he wait till next year if he decides not to go pro ?
- blizzzard

Well he is a freshman so he could probs hold off a year.

Read eichel might play another year of college ? He would still be entering this years draft though would he not or can he wait till next year if he decides not to go pro ?
- blizzzard

Unless he goes undrafted this, he could wait till next year. But He's draft Eligible so he going to get taken. The only loophole with College players is if they go unsigned after 4 years.

Unless he goes undrafted this, he could wait till next year. But He's draft Eligible so he going to get taken. The only loophole with College players is if they go unsigned after 4 years.
- tomburton99

Eichel stays all four years, doesn't sign in Buffalo, and then comes to NJ, then McDavid leaves Edmonton in free agency to come team up with Jack

Eichel stays all four years, doesn't sign in Buffalo, and then comes to NJ, then McDavid leaves Edmonton in free agency to come team up with Jack
- Rangers_Suck01

Easy now, starting to Sound like a Leafs fan.

Feel like the fancy stat trend is already on the way out. LA is 2nd in Corsi close, and Calgary is 28th. NYR is 19th, Carolina is 10th. Not much correlation to reality.

http://www.puckon.net/

Feel like the fancy stat trend is already on the way out. LA is 2nd in Corsi close, and Calgary is 28th. NYR is 19th, Carolina is 10th. Not much correlation to reality.

http://www.puckon.net/
- Springsteen

Anyone who thinks that possession stats are bs just because there's a couple exceptions this year doesn't understand how things work. They're very good indicators of future success, but they're not the only factor, so that's why we see a couple teams each year that if you go by possession stats alone, either should or should not have made the playoffs.

There was Colorado last year that possession stats said they should not have made the playoffs. They did, but things caught up to them and they were eliminated in the first rounds. This year we have Calgary who probably shouldn't have made the playoffs, but did and are up 3-1 against Vancouver and then there's LA on the other end of things. Montreal is another example of a team that doesn't look all that great in terms of possession, but they have Price, who's probably the best goalie in the league and is having an amazing year.

It's clear that Corsi and Fenwick are important, but they don't give you the whole picture. More needs to be done to figure out the impact of shot quality, something that's being done now by tracking shot location as well as the play leading to goals and whether a pass was made, where the pass made from and whether it forced the goalie to move.

Pointing out that there were a few exceptions with possession stats predicting who make made the playoffs is like saying global warming isn't real because it's snowing in your town today. It's a ridiculous statement and only serves to show that you don't understand how things work.

Easy now, starting to Sound like a Leafs fan.
- tomburton99

lol Canadiens fans sound like that here as well... (east coast Canada)

There was Colorado last year that possession stats said they should not have made the playoffs. They did, but things caught up to them and they were eliminated in the first rounds. This year we have Calgary who probably shouldn't have made the playoffs, but did and are up 3-1 against Vancouver and then there's LA on the other end of things. Montreal is another example of a team that doesn't look all that great in terms of possession, but they have Price, who's probably the best goalie in the league and is having an amazing year.

Colorado was better than Minnesota, but Cooke took out their best d-man. Chicago and Nashville should be evenly matched, but take out Shae Weber and Chicago is winning.

Nothing caught up with Colorado... more like collided... a dirty player's knee with Tyson Barrie. His hit list includes Karlsson and Savard... Minnesota's success last year was entirely vain because of that one play.

Colorado did bad this year because they relied on call-up depth defenders and they made a bad signing (a slow Iginla on a fast team), and lost a fast player (in Stastny)... Iggy might have even been a better "possession" player, but with questionable team chemistry, your stats are going to suck.

They got 100+ points legitimately, and they're going to be dominant again, supposing their players are developing properly.

This was a bad cited example.

Feel like the fancy stat trend is already on the way out. LA is 2nd in Corsi close, and Calgary is 28th. NYR is 19th, Carolina is 10th. Not much correlation to reality.

http://www.puckon.net/
- Springsteen

Your feelings are wrong. There are always exceptions.

Enhanced or advanced stats lost a lot of legitmacy with when LA missed the playoffs after posting the best possesion numbers ever. Also, it also is trying to tell me that Dan Boyle is better than Shea Weber and Adam Larsson. Yeah no. Those stats are severely flawed.

Enhanced or advanced stats lost a lot of legitmacy with when LA missed the playoffs after posting the best possesion numbers ever. Also, it also is trying to tell me that Dan Boyle is better than Shea Weber and Adam Larsson. Yeah no. Those stats are severely flawed.
- tomburton99

Maybe James Tanner is saying that, but he does not determine how the stat is effective and like a lot of people, shows he understands very little about it.



People can bring up individual cases all day long, but a higher corsi/fenwick=better chance to win the cup.

Maybe James Tanner is saying that, but he does not determine how the stat is effective and like a lot of people, shows he understands very little about it.



People can bring up individual cases all day long, but a higher corsi/fenwick=better chance to win the cup.
- rmdevil313

No it's not James Tanner. The actual stats that Dan Boyle is better than Shea Weber. I'm dead serious. And if possession stats were an actual indicator of a cup contender. than Pittsburgh should be up 3-0 right now. The canes should be in the playoffs and LA should be on their way to a 3rd cup.

Edit: Here is NHL.com's enahnced stats detailing to me than Dan Boyle is better than Shea WEber.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/...rt=shotAttempts&gp=1&pg=2

No it's not James Tanner. The actual stats that Dan Boyle is better than Shea Weber. I'm dead serious. And if possession stats were an actual indicator of a cup contender. than Pittsburgh should be up 3-0 right now. The canes should be in the playoffs and LA should be on their way to a 3rd cup.
- tomburton99

Everything you just said is misusing/misunderstanding the statistic. Corsi doens't say that Boyle is better than Weber, your interpretation of corsi does. And no one is saying that better corsi= guaranteed win. But as the chart shows, teams with higher corsi tend to go farther.

Everything you just said is misusing/misunderstanding the statistic. Corsi doens't say that Boyle is better than Weber, your interpretation of corsi does. And no one is saying that better corsi= guaranteed win. But as the chart shows, teams with higher corsi tend to go farther.
- rmdevil313

No the actual advanced stats say Boyle>Weber. I know that;s true to but to C&Fer's it's true. Not just Weber either. Suter, MEV, Edler, OEL and J.Carlson. I'm ttaking all of them over Boyle. But Boyle is on the ice more when his team get more shots for so his enhanced stats are better. Pretty skewed stat if you ask me.

No the actual advanced stats say Boyle>Weber. I know that;s true to but to C&Fer's it's true. Not just Weber either. Suter, MEV, Edler, OEL and J.Carlson. I'm ttaking all of them over Boyle. But Boyle is on the ice more when his team get more shots for so his enhanced stats are better. Pretty skewed stat if you ask me.
- tomburton99

Because what you are saying is like saying player X is a better defensive player than player Y because of +/-. There is a decent amount you can learn from +/- but it does not explicitly measure defensive ability. Corsi does not explicitly measure a players ability either.