Sure.

So anyway, what this year's true rookie class are providing $3.5M worth of value this year?
- jmatchett383

Well for ELC players in general there is Forsberg, Hayes, Gaudreau, Galchenyuk, Huberdeau, Strome, Nelson, Lee, Granlund, Tarasenko, Zibanejad, Dougie Hamilton, Nyquist, Chiasson, Saad, Klingberg, Silfverberg, Hoffman, Yakupov, and probably more. And then when these guys ELCs expire, their parent clubs have control to squeeze a below market deal for them.

I think you keep both Sutter and Spaling and add a guy like Stempniak for 900k and mix in Sundqvist and Kapanen.
- rangerdanger94

Yeah that's likely, but its not smart. I'm not talking about what will happen. I'm talking about what should happen. You can keep Sutter and fill out the rest of your bottom six with poop, but why not trade him and fill it out with competence. Sutter's just not good enough to justify having to work around his 3.3 cap hit. Spaling's 2.2 is barely justifiable on a team that isn't against the cap, and even less so on ours. I have no issue with Spaling, and he may even deserve the 2.2, but for Pittsburgh, he should be in the 1 mil range. He doesn't deserve a bigger pay check than Comeau or Downie on this squad.

Trade Sutter, make signings like Comeau and Downie during the offseason again, and we're all gucci if health permits us.

Yeah that's likely, but its not smart. I'm not talking about what will happen. I'm talking about what should happen. You can keep Sutter and fill out the rest of your bottom six with poop, but why not trade him and fill it out with competence. Sutter's just not good enough to justify having to work around his 3.3 cap hit. Spaling's 2.2 is barely justifiable on a team that isn't against the cap, and even less so on ours. I have no issue with Spaling, and he may even deserve the 2.2, but for Pittsburgh, he should be in the 1 mil range. He doesn't deserve a bigger pay check than Comeau or Downie on this squad.

Trade Sutter, make signings like Comeau and Downie during the offseason again, and we're all gucci if health permits us.
- Victoro311

What I'm saying is you're not going to get 2 competent players for the price of 1 Sutter. You can get 2 Tanner Glasses on the UFA market for 1 Sutter.

It's really a non issue both guys suck and they play very little. If we are nit picking about this then I think we are lined up pretty well to make a cup run.
- dbell646

Every piece matters. To be able to ice an effective 4th line for 8 minutes a night in the playoffs can be a major difference between winning the cup and losing in the first round.

Every piece matters. To be able to ice an effective 4th line for 8 minutes a night in the playoffs can be a major difference between winning the cup and losing in the first round.
- BINGO!

Neither were effective and that's my point. Marcel Goc was a bum and so is Lappy.

Well for ELC players in general there is Forsberg, Hayes, Gaudreau, Galchenyuk, Huberdeau, Strome, Nelson, Lee, Granlund, Tarasenko, Zibanejad, Dougie Hamilton, Nyquist, Chiasson, Saad, Klingberg, Silfverberg, Hoffman, Yakupov, and probably more. And then when these guys ELCs expire, their parent clubs have control to squeeze a below market deal for them.
- rangerdanger94

Yes, but aside from Hayes, Gaudreau, and maybe Hoffman, those guys have played before (why I said "true rookie"). You wouldn't pay a guy $3.5M and just hope that he produces to that level SOME OF THE TIME. How many of the guys you listed have been producing that well over the (to date) duration of their ELCs?

Great analysis, Ryan. I emphasize the importance of metrics in my line of work. You can't make rational decisions until you can measure your processes. The same goes for hockey analytics. I am sure a couple of my hockey buddies will make some comments to your article on my facebook page that reflect the misunderstanding out there with advanced statistics.

Well for ELC players in general there is Forsberg, Hayes, Gaudreau, Galchenyuk, Huberdeau, Strome, Nelson, Lee, Granlund, Tarasenko, Zibanejad, Dougie Hamilton, Nyquist, Chiasson, Saad, Klingberg, Silfverberg, Hoffman, Yakupov, and probably more. And then when these guys ELCs expire, their parent clubs have control to squeeze a below market deal for them.
- rangerdanger94

Yes, but aside from Hayes, Gaudreau, and maybe Hoffman, those guys have played before (why I said "true rookie"). You wouldn't pay a guy $3.5M and just hope that he produces to that level SOME OF THE TIME. How many of the guys you listed have been producing that well over the (to date) duration of their ELCs?
- jmatchett383

It doesn't matter, imo, how they've been producing over the course of their ELCs. What it comes down to is that while they're under contract for 900k, they provide significantly more value than that. And if you go out and spend 3.5M on a UFA, you're goingg to overpay and get a guy that provides less value than his cap hit. Who cares if they're rookies or not? It's all about their cap hit vs value provided.

Great analysis, Ryan. I emphasize the importance of metrics in my line of work. You can't make rational decisions until you can measure your processes. The same goes for hockey analytics. I am sure a couple of my hockey buddies will make some comments to your article on my facebook page that reflect the misunderstanding out there with advanced statistics.
- pghrunner74

Suck up.

Neither were effective and that's my point. Marcel Goc was a bum and so is Lappy.
- dbell646

Okay, well, agree to disagree there. Goc was far superior in that role than Lapierre is.

Neither were effective and that's my point. Marcel Goc was a bum and so is Lappy.
- dbell646

Willingly taking on a definably inferior and cost-ineffective player is the problem with this roster.

It doesn't matter, imo, how they've been producing over the course of their ELCs. What it comes down to is that while they're under contract for 900k, they provide significantly more value than that. And if you go out and spend 3.5M on a UFA, you're goingg to overpay and get a guy that provides less value than his cap hit. Who cares if they're rookies or not? It's all about their cap hit vs value provided.
- rangerdanger94

It's weird when we agree.

It's weird when we agree.
- BINGO!

Everybody that agrees with me at some point says something similar to that

This Lapierre vs. Goc argument is absurdly dumb. As a competent 4th line C, Goc wins hands down. The only people who think Lapierre is better are people who overinflate the ability to hit well. Our fourth line sucks? OK. Fair point. You think its soft? OK. Fair point. But adding a guy who is a fair checker but can't do anything else doesn't fix that. Making the fourth line grittier doesn't necessarily make it better. Lapierre was a downgrade over Goc.
- Victoro311

Wise words.

Willingly taking on a definably inferior and cost-ineffective player is the problem with this roster.
- jfkst1

Nothing but the truth.

What I'm saying is you're not going to get 2 competent players for the price of 1 Sutter. You can get 2 Tanner Glasses on the UFA market for 1 Sutter.
- rangerdanger94

Incorrect actually. Comeau + Downie + Winnik = Sutter. Those are three good bottom six guys. In fact, put those guys together and you have an very above average 4th line. Might even be able to pass as a third. In other words, Sutter's cap hit can produce an entire (and competent) line.

It doesn't matter, imo, how they've been producing over the course of their ELCs. What it comes down to is that while they're under contract for 900k, they provide significantly more value than that. And if you go out and spend 3.5M on a UFA, you're goingg to overpay and get a guy that provides less value than his cap hit. Who cares if they're rookies or not? It's all about their cap hit vs value provided.
- rangerdanger94

Of course it matters. You wouldn't pay a player and expect to only have him provide that value for a portion of his deal. So if you want a player on his ELC to produce $3.5M of value, he'd better do it out of the gate.

I do agree with you in principal, just not the way you presented it.

Okay, well, agree to disagree there. Goc was far superior in that role than Lapierre is.
- BINGO!

But they like french canadiens apparently. Goc is much better than Lapierre. The numbers are there to prove and the differential can be seen in goals against everytime our 4th line/special team steps on the ice.

But they like french canadiens apparently. Goc is much better than Lapierre. The numbers are there to prove and the differential can be seen in goals against everytime our 4th line/special team steps on the ice.
- Barnaby36

Anyone who can hang on to the puck and/or do something reasonably effective with it >>>> Anyone who can't hold onto the puck or just chips it away like a hand grenade.

True. Grass is always greener though. You guys hate sutter, but whoever you replace him with might suck even more.
- rangerdanger94

Just someone who can hold the damn puck on the boards and isn't weaker than a tooth pick would be a definite upgrade lol

Okay, well, agree to disagree there. Goc was far superior in that role than Lapierre is.
- BINGO!

I honestly dont think there is any difference between the 2. Their TOI is minimal along with their production. Not having Goc means nothing to this teams outcome.

Of course it matters. You wouldn't pay a player and expect to only have him provide that value for a portion of his deal. So if you want a player on his ELC to produce $3.5M of value, he'd better do it out of the gate.

I do agree with you in principal, just not the way you presented it.
- jmatchett383

When you have a deep prospect pool, you have 1 or 2 players every year to rotate in on ELCs to provide value. Whether it's year 1 of their deal or year 3 after some seasoning in the AHL, you get quality production at a discount. And again, you have the leverage to give them a below market deal when they become RFAs. Like Stepan signed a deal for 3M after a 44 point season during the lockout. Now we have a 3M center on the books.

Brassard is a 60 point center signed for 5M a year.

Kreider is almost a 50 point top 6 winger signed for 2.5M or something. McDonagh is an elite defenseman signed for 4.7M. All these guys provide more value than their cap hits all because we signed them as RFAs.

Anyone who can hang on to the puck and/or do something reasonably effective with it >>>> Anyone who can't hold onto the puck or just chips it away like a hand grenade.
- BINGO!

And to think we had Arcobello and Goc on our roster. Instead we traded for an inefective Lapierre and also kept Adams.

Incorrect actually. Comeau + Downie + Winnik = Sutter. Those are three good bottom six guys. In fact, put those guys together and you have an very above average 4th line. Might even be able to pass as a third. In other words, Sutter's cap hit can produce an entire (and competent) line.
- Victoro311

That would be a great 4th line, hte problem is 2 of those guys are in teh top 6.