I hear you on the linemate stuff. To play devils advocate though, a guy like Getlaf (who is my pick for the best forward/Hart) put up 15 pts in the 10 games Perry was out in December with his knee injury, and we know they dont have a bona fide top 6 winger without Perry (guys like beleskey and silfverberg are nice, but they are hardly top line material)
its definitely an interesting debate, do you prefer the 60-70 pt guy who plays elite defense like Bergeron and Kopitar?
Or do you take the PPG+ studs who lack defensively compared to the other guys such as Crosby, Kane, Malkin, OV, etc
Honestly it obviously comes down to other more important factors like what their production means for their team and the system they run. PIT needs Malkin and Crosby to be PPG+ to succeed. CHI and LAK need Toews and Kopitar to be elite two way centers for CHI to match up and succeed. ANA needs Getzlaf to be a beast to raise the play of a rather vanilla ANA roster outside of Perry and Kesler. I do agree Kopitar belong in the conversation and he is very good for what he does for LAK, I just dont think its any better than what some of the other guys listed provide for their team
On a side note JT, I think youre one of the best bloggers on here, keep up the good work - FourFeathers773
Why do you need to choose between a two way center or a defensively challenged star scorer? Good teams have a mix of all players!
Do I want a toews or do I want a Kane? I want both.
I think this response is in part due to how loudly analytic people have called out how great "fancy stats" are, but are often thrown out there in the same context analytics criticize the 1-dimensional use of goals, assists and +/- to determine which players are good. You used Corsi as weighing heavily but there are flaws in weighing it more so than points, goals, etc. Also its tough to determine who is the beneficiary of these stats and who is actually bringing those players up. I think Brown is very solid defensively and likely contributes to how high Kopitar's Corsi % is, but its truely hard to know - WhiteLie
When Kopitar and Brown are on ice together, they hit 60. Kopitar without Brown is almost 58 and Brown without Kopitar is almost 51, suggesting its Kopitar who is doing the heavy lifting. http://stats.hockeyanalys...ue&season=2014-15&sit=5v5
Location: "Welcome to HockeyBuzz. Come for the rumors. Stay for the idiots." - Feds91Stammer Joined: 08.21.2014
Feb 19 @ 5:56 PM ET
High PDO, low Corsi, I am gonna have to take Doughty and Muzzin over Weber. The main reason Nashville is in first is because their goalie has stopped 95% of shots. Consider stopping 92% makes you the best goalie of all time, this is clearly too high and won't continue.
I like Weber, he's a fun player. He's not close to the Hart trophy, not in my opinion anyways. (See what I did there?) - James_Tanner
Yeah, Rinne and Andersen are pretty much a toss-up...
I hear you on the linemate stuff. To play devils advocate though, a guy like Getlaf (who is my pick for the best forward/Hart) put up 15 pts in the 10 games Perry was out in December with his knee injury, and we know they dont have a bona fide top 6 winger without Perry (guys like beleskey and silfverberg are nice, but they are hardly top line material)
its definitely an interesting debate, do you prefer the 60-70 pt guy who plays elite defense like Bergeron and Kopitar?
Or do you take the PPG+ studs who lack defensively compared to the other guys such as Crosby, Kane, Malkin, OV, etc
Honestly it obviously comes down to other more important factors like what their production means for their team and the system they run. PIT needs Malkin and Crosby to be PPG+ to succeed. CHI and LAK need Toews and Kopitar to be elite two way centers for CHI to match up and succeed. ANA needs Getzlaf to be a beast to raise the play of a rather vanilla ANA roster outside of Perry and Kesler. I do agree Kopitar belong in the conversation and he is very good for what he does for LAK, I just dont think its any better than what some of the other guys listed provide for their team
On a side note JT, I think youre one of the best bloggers on here, keep up the good work - FourFeathers773
all very good players although Getz even without perry had an awesome team.
Kane is unbelievable but I can't see him getting as many goals as OVI or Nash
Crosby is simply not a goal scorer compared to the others.
Malkin is a force on the ice but only plays 75% of the season
OVI is easily my choice for the hart out of forwards. the guy carries his team. and this year has been awesome in both ends
I see what you are saying, although I wouldn't really call Gaborik sub par by any means. If we are going for best scorer I can't see how there is any argument against OVI, he is the whole team. and this year his defensive play has been awesome as well. - Maverick1818
This is the only thing I kind of balk at.
Gaborik, even with his usual injury stint, is still scoring at 29 goal full season pace, which is probably pretty comparable, if not better, to other 1Cs best wingers across the league
I hear you on the linemate stuff. To play devils advocate though, a guy like Getlaf (who is my pick for the best forward/Hart) put up 15 pts in the 10 games Perry was out in December with his knee injury, and we know they dont have a bona fide top 6 winger without Perry (guys like beleskey and silfverberg are nice, but they are hardly top line material)
its definitely an interesting debate, do you prefer the 60-70 pt guy who plays elite defense like Bergeron and Kopitar?
Or do you take the PPG+ studs who lack defensively compared to the other guys such as Crosby, Kane, Malkin, OV, etc
Honestly it obviously comes down to other more important factors like what their production means for their team and the system they run. PIT needs Malkin and Crosby to be PPG+ to succeed. CHI and LAK need Toews and Kopitar to be elite two way centers for CHI to match up and succeed. ANA needs Getzlaf to be a beast to raise the play of a rather vanilla ANA roster outside of Perry and Kesler. I do agree Kopitar belong in the conversation and he is very good for what he does for LAK, I just dont think its any better than what some of the other guys listed provide for their team
On a side note JT, I think youre one of the best bloggers on here, keep up the good work - FourFeathers773
Solid post, some good thoughts. I'd expand, but dinners ready. Thanks for the compliment.
Hate to break it to you dude, but there are a lot of good hockey people who think that. I really wish it was ok to have my own opinion.
State it as a fact: called an arrogant ass Take the trouble to make it clear its my opinion only : get told its meaningless Use factual data to make an analysis: told it's stoopid by people who "just know" but never come back with actual data to back up their claims. Post the same thing as everyone else: don't know what would happen here actually, since when my opinion is the same as whats being published I usually don't bother since it would be pointless. Attempt to offer thought provoking original ideas: Told I'm making them up just to "get hits"
Side note: If I wrote MUZZIN BETTER THAN WEBER in the headline, maybe you'd have a point, but I said that in the comment section and anyone seeing already clicked.
Write perhaps the most original and well written hockey blog of all time: get compared to some wierdo with subpar writting skills.
Basically I can't win no matter what with you guys. But honestly, that's OK with me. I am happy to be your punching bag and I am sure deep down you'd just prefer someone to tell you exactly what you want to hear anyways. know what I'm saying?
- James_Tanner
Hate to break it to you dude, but your little circle jerk of friends doesn't constitute "good hockey people"
you're a punching bag because you write the most asinine bullpoop. It used to be Cloutier, now it's you.
When Kopitar and Brown are on ice together, they hit 60. Kopitar without Brown is almost 58 and Brown without Kopitar is almost 51, suggesting its Kopitar who is doing the heavy lifting. http://stats.hockeyanalys...ue&season=2014-15&sit=5v5 - James_Tanner
the problem with stats are that they are interpreted in different ways. Did you know that 25% of motor accidents are caused by speeding but 75% are not?
Kopitar is a fantastic player but looking at all the intangibles, tell me a GM in this league that would take him over Toews?
Hate to break it to you dude, but there are a lot of good hockey people who think that. I really wish it was ok to have my own opinion.
State it as a fact: called an arrogant ass Take the trouble to make it clear its my opinion only : get told its meaningless Use factual data to make an analysis: told it's stoopid by people who "just know" but never come back with actual data to back up their claims. Post the same thing as everyone else: don't know what would happen here actually, since when my opinion is the same as whats being published I usually don't bother since it would be pointless. Attempt to offer thought provoking original ideas: Told I'm making them up just to "get hits"
Side note: If I wrote MUZZIN BETTER THAN WEBER in the headline, maybe you'd have a point, but I said that in the comment section and anyone seeing already clicked.
Write perhaps the most original and well written hockey blog of all time: get compared to some wierdo with subpar writting skills.
Basically I can't win no matter what with you guys. But honestly, that's OK with me. I am happy to be your punching bag and I am sure deep down you'd just prefer someone to tell you exactly what you want to hear anyways. know what I'm saying?
- James_Tanner
I'm sorry but anyone who would take Muzzin over Weber is smoking some really good stuff. Your a good guy James but your opinions today on this comment thread are based way too much off of crazy stats. If you seriously would take Muzzin over Weber then you need to start watching more games to see how dominant Weber really is. Your corsi stat isn't doing him any justice. Muzzin is a solid 3-4 D on a good blueline but is not near an elite D like Weber and Doughty. It's not like were directing the comments are you personally, its just that some of your arguments/opinions are based to much on numbers on a screen rather than watching how the player plays every night. Numbers/stats help to make a point but you can't just solely base your argument off of them. If you still think Weber isn't having a norris year after watching all the games then I'm going to say you are either a liar or you aren't quite knowledgeable on the game.
Hate to break it to you dude, but there are a lot of good hockey people who think that. I really wish it was ok to have my own opinion.
State it as a fact: called an arrogant ass Take the trouble to make it clear its my opinion only : get told its meaningless Use factual data to make an analysis: told it's stoopid by people who "just know" but never come back with actual data to back up their claims. Post the same thing as everyone else: don't know what would happen here actually, since when my opinion is the same as whats being published I usually don't bother since it would be pointless. Attempt to offer thought provoking original ideas: Told I'm making them up just to "get hits"
Side note: If I wrote MUZZIN BETTER THAN WEBER in the headline, maybe you'd have a point, but I said that in the comment section and anyone seeing already clicked.
Write perhaps the most original and well written hockey blog of all time: get compared to some wierdo with subpar writting skills.
Basically I can't win no matter what with you guys. But honestly, that's OK with me. I am happy to be your punching bag and I am sure deep down you'd just prefer someone to tell you exactly what you want to hear anyways. know what I'm saying?
- James_Tanner
This was your best post post ever....I actually agree with all of it.
the problem with stats are that they are interpreted in different ways. Did you know that 25% of motor accidents are caused by speeding but 75% are not?
Kopitar is a fantastic player but looking at all the intangibles, tell me a GM in this league that would take him over Toews? - geta02it
I think some would, it's certainly not out of the question.
Location: When youre 7 pages behind Dont bother catching up, you will never get that time back - Codes1087 Joined: 07.26.2010
Feb 19 @ 6:03 PM ET
When Kopitar and Brown are on ice together, they hit 60. Kopitar without Brown is almost 58 and Brown without Kopitar is almost 51, suggesting its Kopitar who is doing the heavy lifting. http://stats.hockeyanalys...ue&season=2014-15&sit=5v5 - James_Tanner
It would suggest that, but then you jump down the wormhole of who else Brown plays with next and if that player is dragging him down. I am not too up to speed on all the fancy stats tracked, but I would also suggest that LA's top D-pair playing with Kopi/Brown most of the time which helps their stats as well. I think quality of teammates is as important as quality of opposition.
That being said, the center is the most important forward when it comes to defensive play, Kopitar is getting recognition the past few seasons deservedly for his 2-way play
all very good players although Getz even without perry had an awesome team.
Kane is unbelievable but I can't see him getting as many goals as OVI or Nash
Crosby is simply not a goal scorer compared to the others.
Malkin is a force on the ice but only plays 75% of the season
OVI is easily my choice for the hart out of forwards. the guy carries his team. and this year has been awesome in both ends - Maverick1818
Location: LA Kings fan since 1996. Favorite palyers Luc Robitaille & Rob Blake, CA Joined: 06.22.2014
Feb 19 @ 6:03 PM ET
No way do I consider Kopitar the BEST forward in the NHL. Is he top 10, I would say yes. Does he put up the numbers like Crosby or the goals like ovechkin, no, but he does a lot of little things that just make him rediculously good. Ok, so he has a -4 this year, big deal. There are probably 2 other players I would take as a number one center for the Kings and that would be Toews or Crosby, I'll throw in Bergeron too. Other than that, I'll stick with watching Kopitar night in and night out. He is unbelieveable when he has the puck, so tough to take it away from him. He is what defines the Kings offense. Plays well in his own end and controls the play when he has the puck.
Thats from two years ago. and i've seen those for OVI, Malkin, Crosby, Kane, Getz, Nash. every player has bad moments i'm talking now. and right now there isn't a better forward in the NHL then OVI
I'm sorry but anyone who would take Muzzin over Weber is smoking some really good stuff. Your a good guy James but your opinions today on this comment thread are based way too much off of crazy stats. If you seriously would take Muzzin over Weber then you need to start watching more games to see how dominant Weber really is. Your corsi stat isn't doing him any justice. Muzzin is a solid 3-4 D on a good blueline but is not near an elite D like Weber and Doughty. It's not like were directing the comments are you personally, its just that some of your arguments/opinions are based to much on numbers on a screen rather than watching how the player plays every night. Numbers/stats help to make a point but you can't just solely base your argument off of them. If you still think Weber isn't having a norris year after watching all the games then I'm going to say you are either a liar or you aren't quite knowledgeable on the game. - Pleiadian4
Well, that's fair. To be honest with you, I've never actually seen a hockey game.
But in all honesty, I do think people base things a little much on reputation. It may not be fair to say Weber is overrated, but there are legitimately people who think that and I don't think they're idiots. Also, a guy I really like to read, Steve Burtch, who is a math teacher, did an exhaustive analysis and said Muzzin was the most effective defenseman in the NHL. Now, that doesn't make it true, but it's interesting and he's a good hockey guy as far as I'm concerned.
I believe you have made a strong case for Kopitar being considered for the "Selke" award. Your own stats and collection of other data strongly supports that Kopitar should not win the "Hart" but rather any number of other players. An even more difficult challenge that you created for yourself is that the title of this blog is "who is the best forward in the NHL this year?" and you break down a group forwards and then conclude that Kopitar deserves the Hart. The Hart isn't awarded to the best forward in the NHL. Hell, it isn't even given simply to the best player in the NHL. It is awarded to the player that is most valuable, or some even say most valuable to his team. Kopitar is neither the best player, the most valuable, or even the most valuable to his team. There is good reason to believe that Kopitar wouldn't win this award even if it was simply for the forwards to win. Even Doughty has a better chance to win the Hart than Kopitar and they play on the same team. Drew will not win the Hart, he won't even win the Norris, that should be Weber or Giordano, who both should also be considered for the Hart.
The biggest challenge with analytics is that some people don't recognize them at all, but worse might be those who have embraced them and have lost sight of the actual game on the ice. If corsi and Fenwick and PDO are so perfect at determining exactly how things will play out, we should just log on to an analytics site at the end of the season and award the Stanley Cup to the theoretically best statistical team. Why even play the most exciting playoff games in ALL of Sports. Then you can apologize to Anzi Kopitar for taking back his 2 Stanley Cup Rings too, because the Kings were far from being the best statistical team in 2012 or 2014 and still they won. That's why the games are actually played on the ice and not determined by arrogant pocket protector owners on a spread sheet!
FYI - I read your blogs all the time and generally enjoy them. I appreciate that you regularly post thought provoking ideas for others to consume. I am not intending to attack you with this reply, but I simply don't agree and am posting an alternative opinion and argument.
