did you know that the leafs were playing better corst after carlyle got fired?

lost 23 of the last 27 games

did you know the leafs were playing terrible corsi before carlyle was fired?

6th place in east.
- Lee Denault

I did know that. Wrote about it a ton. Fact is, one example proves nothing. There were so many factors involved in why the Leafs sucked after PH was hired:

- schedule was insane
- one third of their top nine and their best D were injured
- they shot 2.9% over his first 12 games and over a full season the worst team of all time shot 7%
- Their goalies took a massive dive.
- Phil Kessel is shooting something like 3% over his last 20 something games.

I can keep going if you want, but I do believe that's a paddlin'

Sorry, I like and respect you , but you're fundamentally wrong here.
- James_Tanner

I don't know if that word means what you think it does...

Sorry, I like and respect you , but you're fundamentally wrong here.
- James_Tanner

Then answer my question as to why the Oilers have been winning more?

I did know that. Wrote about it a ton. Fact is, one example proves nothing. There were so many factors involved in why the Leafs sucked after PH was hired:

- schedule was insane
- one third of their top nine and their best D were injured
- they shot 2.9% over his first 12 games and over a full season the worst team of all time shot 7%
- Their goalies took a massive dive.
- Phil Kessel is shooting something like 3% over his last 20 something games.

I can keep going if you want, but I do believe that's a paddlin'
- James_Tanner

Whoa! You do accept the fact that there is more to hockey than Corsi?

I did know that. Wrote about it a ton. Fact is, one example proves nothing. There were so many factors involved in why the Leafs sucked after PH was hired:

- schedule was insane
- one third of their top nine and their best D were injured
- they shot 2.9% over his first 12 games and over a full season the worst team of all time shot 7%
- Their goalies took a massive dive.
- Phil Kessel is shooting something like 3% over his last 20 something games.

I can keep going if you want, but I do believe that's a paddlin'
- James_Tanner

I see a ball of excuses.

We are talking about corsi. not schedule and crap

Good corsi - leafs lost

bad corsi - Leafs won

This is fact

how is he wrong?

All he is saying is there are many different variables and lists them.

How is that fundamentally wrong?
- Lee Denault

Because he's saying that shot quality over the aggregate matters, and it doesn't. Again, like I said, I am willing to listen to proof on this subject, but I have had it explained and proven to me by someone I trust, and confirmed it from secondary sources, just like i do with everything.

I see a ball of excuses.

We are talking about corsi. not schedule and crap

Good corsi - leafs lost

bad corsi - Leafs won

This is fact
- Lee Denault

Sorry, I can't argue with this kind of logic. Tanner out.

I did know that. Wrote about it a ton. Fact is, one example proves nothing. There were so many factors involved in why the Leafs sucked after PH was hired:

- schedule was insane
- one third of their top nine and their best D were injured
- they shot 2.9% over his first 12 games and over a full season the worst team of all time shot 7%
- Their goalies took a massive dive.
- Phil Kessel is shooting something like 3% over his last 20 something games.

I can keep going if you want, but I do believe that's a paddlin'
- James_Tanner

factors as in variables?

The last person to point out variables you told was fundamentally wrong if I recall....

James, just stop.

Sorry, I can't argue with this kind of logic. Tanner out.
- James_Tanner

Corsi extremism is closing in on Christianity extremism

Sorry, I can't argue with this kind of logic. Tanner out.
- James_Tanner

Of course you cant...because it isnt statistically supported. The stst does not tell the whole story, nd it never will.

Of course you cant...because it isnt statistically supported. The stst does not tell the whole story, nd it never will.
- Jeropotato

soon every game will be simulated. because actually playing doesn't mean poop apparently

Corsi and Fenwick will be renamed 'shot attempts' and 'unblocked shot attempts' because their names were stupid. Relying on this is also a pretty flimsy straw argument when judging the quality of Player X to Player Y. As for the possession stats, the eyes can tell this just fine.

This is just ridiculous. Talk about a sophistic argument. The entire advanced stats community disregards plus minus - in fact, in 2015 virtually all NHL people do. Anyone who uses it gets instantly and mercifully mocked (not saying thats right or ok, but it is true).

They also uniformly agree that Corsi is the most telling stat when it comes to things like predicting who might make the playoffs from here on out. (Bad possession teams almost always lose over time when their hot goaltending or high shooting percentages run out).

So, sure, I am a clown. But I guess that means that every single analytics based writer and analyst is also a clown. Good to know.
- James_Tanner

Goal differential or team +/- is also a pretty solid indication that a team will make the playoffs. You just changed from evaluating individuals to evaluating teams. Please keep it focused because the jury is still out on how useful corsi is for evaluating individual players. I'd agree that it is more representative than +/- and that +/- is subject to a lot of outside factors (although corsi is too) but that the sample size for corsi helps diminish the effect of these factors (not entirely confirmed because the factors can be slightly different (and potentially larger for simply shots)). I do still think that the sample size helps but that is simply my intuition and it is actually not quantifiable as some people would have us believe (lack of consideration for additional factors). Anyways, I agree that corsi is better than (+/-) for individual players.

But to call one meaningless and make the other your most important stat is to simply ignore all of the parallels between the two statistics.

And your argument, that everyone else is doing it too, is more than pathetic and it's actually really telling with how easily influenced you are by the other writers you read. Not really a good sign of an independent thinker...

Goal differential or team +/- is also a pretty solid indication that a team will make the playoffs. You just changed from evaluating individuals to evaluating teams. Please keep it focused because the jury is still out on how useful corsi is for evaluating individual players. I'd agree that it is more representative than +/- and that +/- is subject to a lot of outside factors (although corsi is too) but that the sample size for corsi helps diminish the effect of these factors (not entirely confirmed because the factors can be slightly different (and potentially larger for simply shots)). I do still think that the sample size helps but that is simply my intuition and it is actually not quantifiable as some people would have us believe (lack of consideration for additional factors). Anyways, I agree that corsi is better than (+/-) for individual players.

But to call one meaningless and make the other your most important stat is to simply ignore all of the parallels between the two statistics.

And your argument, that everyone else is doing it too, is more than pathetic and it's actually really telling with how easily influenced you are by the other writers you read. Not really a good sign of an independent thinker...
- RonPielep

Can i say that all the corsi bloggers went on to having nhl jobs or work for news outlets. the good ones anyways.

Can i say that all the corsi bloggers went on to having nhl jobs or work for news outlets. the good ones anyways.
- Lee Denault

You can say that. Doesn't really mean anything to me though.

Corsi extremism is closing in on Christianity extremism
- Lee Denault

No...it isnt....Most stat fad is already dying....more and more teams are recognizing its usefullness but the sheer volume of people who live and die by it have moved on to recognize that the factors do exist, and that corsi is just a tool. Were never going to see and read as much about it as we did prior to this season when the information provided a fresh perspective.

a year ago corsi dorks were saying that having physical players were not important because if you are hitting a nother player, chances are he has the puck so if you want to be a possesion team hitting doesnt matter. I actually read this.

Never once did the writer mention how or why a team that has a 53% corsi actually comes into possesion of the puck when the other team had it 47%. Its as though they only managed to get it by winning races to loose pucks and rebounds and by winning face offs. like none of that other hockey thing happened aside from that.

No...it isnt....Most stat fad is already dying....more and more teams are recognizing its usefullness but the sheer volume of people who live and die by it have moved on to recognize that the factors do exist, and that corsi is just a tool. Were never going to see and read as much about it as we did prior to this season when the information provided a fresh perspective.

a year ago corsi dorks were saying that having physical players were not important because if you are hitting a nother player, chances are he has the puck so if you want to be a possesion team hitting doesnt matter. I actually read this.

Never once did the writer mention how or why a team that has a 53% corsi actually comes into possesion of the puck when the other team had it 47%. Its as though they only managed to get it by winning races to loose pucks and rebounds and by winning face offs. like none of that other hockey thing happened aside from that.
- Jeropotato

pretty hard to have the puck when youre picking your teeth out of the glass

pretty hard to have the puck when youre picking your teeth out of the glass
- Lee Denault

No poop eh...but these are things the corsi nerds dismiss....true fundamental parts odf the game....I hope we never have to watch the '72 Russians vs the '72 Russians....that would suck.

Sorry, I can't argue with this kind of logic. Tanner out.
- James_Tanner

Just wondering why you didnt include toews in this comparison. He has similar numbers to kopitars and leads him in everything except CF% and PDO which they are both very close in all categories.

Nash just scored James

Pure luck though.

His career shooting percentage is 12% (all round, where as the 18% is at 5v5 for just this year) no one can score on 20% of their shots, no matter how good they are it can't happen over a long time. 55 games might sound like a big sample, but it isn't.
- James_Tanner

So what would be considered a big sample size? I ask because the only measured sample size for MVP is 82 and Nash is already nearly 75% of the way there.

I get that sustaining a 20% shooting percentage is almost impossible, but he's nearly done that for 75% of the season.

That to me, sounds like someone worthy of an MVP, not somebody getting lucky.

Somebody getting lucky to me is a player that goes from say a 7% shooting percentage to nearly 20% for a quarter or so of the season, and that is clearly not Nash.

James Tanner: Who Is the Best Forward in the NHL This Year?
Trying to analyze the best of the best
- James_Tanner

Wow!

Nash just scored James

Pure luck though.
- rangerdanger94

Nash and Backstrom would be my picks for best forwards this year for sure

Nash and Backstrom would be my picks for best forwards this year for sure
- FLflames34

OVI has a goal and 2 assists tonight and that's an average night for him lately lol

OVI has a goal and 2 assists tonight and that's an average night for him lately lol
- Maverick1818

And Backstrom has 2 goals, 1 assist you can't go wrong with either, and Calgary appreciates both contributions tonight