Good explanation of the difference between LTIR cap space and actual cap space in your last couple posts. Most people dont get that LTIR cant be prorated. I think the Pens can juggle a bit with guys going to WBS to free maybe upto 1mil in space, but basically any trade at this point is going to have to be even money in and out for the most part. The 73-74m cap # you used to account for LTIR could go up a bit I think if they do make a move of sending somebody to WBS(in anticipation of a trade where we use up the last of our 900k-1m in space) then recalling them post deadline when there is effectively no more cap, correct?
- Rawdog9755

There is still a cap after the deadline. The only time the cap effectively goes away is in the playoffs.

No, because that would not impact our cap ceiling. For example:

current team cap: $73,195,000
Cap Ceiling if Ehrhoff was on LTIR: $77,644,167
Team cap if we add say Bergenheim: $75,945,000


We could then not bring Ehrhoff off of LTIR because our cap ceiling would drop to $73,644,167 and we would be out of compliance with the cap.
- PensFan1103

(frank) this poop... too confusing. Imma go back to doing nothing in this cargo net with comfy as hell pillows at work.

As you wish:

Malkin - GA/60 ES - 3.04

Crosby - GA/60 ES - 2.76

Sutter - GA/60 ES - 2.26
- hardnosed

Well then I stand corrected, ES TOI wasn't as different as I expected between Crosby and Malkin and Sutter.

I'm bored so I've been playing around on http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/index.php and found some interesting stuff.

Statistically speaking, our best penalty killers have been Ehrhoff (which may make more sense on why the pk has been struggling lately) and Adams.

There is still a cap after the deadline. The only time the cap effectively goes away is in the playoffs.
- PensFan1103

Gotcha...i wasnt sure on it being post deadline or playoffs. I thought it was the 2012 Philly series when we called up Strait and Despres and exceeded the cap--just didnt know at what point the cap didnt apply.

The terms “Corsi” and “Fenwick” won’t be part of the redesigned NHL.com when it is launched on Friday, Sportsnet has learned.

The league has instead decided to label the statistics “shot attempts” and “unblocked shot attempts,” according to sources, in hopes of making them more understandable for a broad audience.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/h...-sport-new-names-nhl-com/

This is a good change, imo.

Wait, sooo you're saying a team with better goal-tending has a better chance to win? Ahhh thank goodness the numbers can tell us this stuff!! Okay, I was just being an ass there but seriously both sides of the argument have over the top people. The ohh they are winning because *picks the highest number stat the team has* and when a team is losing its obviously because of *picks the lowest stat the team has*. Then you have the people that don't understand the advance stats and get frustrated with it so they are completely closed minded about them. People just pick the side that back their argument whether right or wrong.
- kgrpitt

No

The numbers allow you to look at what parts of your team are doing well and what parts are not.

Minny didn't panic and fire their coach who's system is doing well with this roster. They didn't make a rash trade to prop up their offense.They looked where they were bad and looked for a solution, did I think Duby would be? Hell no, but he's fixed the hole in that team.

As for LA most of us are looking at their struggles and saying the HAVE to acquire a D man to make the playoffs, thus teams can take someone from their roster to fix that issue.

Well its not their skaters that's losing them games. It's their goal tending. So they rude quick this year, he either comes good and they make the playoffs or he doesn't. But they don't go ahead and screw with a roster that is (frank)ing awesome for a quick fix in an area that is not a problem.

That is where the advanced stats help. You don't pick and chose what stats you use, workout what you think is valuable to win and use the quantifiable numbers to create a pool of assets to look at. Then narrow those down with the intangibles so you get mix you think is right to win.

The blind hate and unwillingness to use the numbers is either willful ignorance because people don't like being proven wrong, or its in the too hard basket.

Fleury is my favorite player, his advanced stats over his career show he is an average goalie prone to hot and cold streaks. Emotionally I'm stoked the Pens resigned him, contractually not so much, but it doesn't stop me enjoying watching him play.

Gotcha...i wasnt sure on it being post deadline or playoffs. I thought it was the 2012 Philly series when we called up Strait and Despres and exceeded the cap--just didnt know at what point the cap didnt apply.
- Rawdog9755

Which is why is Dupuis does return, on or just a bit quicker than the 6 month timeline... it'll be playoffs and a free upgrade to the bottom 6.

Where'd you get that data. From stats.hockeyanalysis.com, i got:

Malkin - GA/60 ES - 2.37

Crosby - GA/60 ES - 2.06

Sutter - GA/60 ES - 2.01

Adams - GA/60 ES - 1.26
- cap1681

Adams shot suppression is awesome. But he cannot do anything else. So he had no ability to 'make up' the GA when it happens. Same with Sutter when he gets scored on his ability to get it back is low.

Where'd you get that data. From stats.hockeyanalysis.com, i got:

Malkin - GA/60 ES - 2.37

Crosby - GA/60 ES - 2.06

Sutter - GA/60 ES - 2.01

Adams - GA/60 ES - 1.26
- cap1681

I ran them myself. The fancy stats sites appear to be using ES GA and Total TOI to get their numbers. That doesn't make sense. So I used ES GA and ES TOI to get my numbers.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/corsi-fenwick-sport-new-names-nhl-com/

This is a good change, imo.
- BulliesPhan87

I'd prefer "Shot Attempt Plus/Minus."

I really thought we put this whole Trade Martin movement to bed once Maatta is out.

Our defense is spread out too thin already. Trading your #2 dman for what you guys are proposing is just crazy.

a contender does not trade their #2 dman this point in the year... especially not for a 3rd liner.

That stat has less meaning than corsi bud, try again.
- Grinder47

Just a coincidence then. Yawn. Hit me back with something real my lord

Sid hasn't scored in 23 of our games this season but averages 1.93 points in the games he scores. Wow! Also madden saying Rutherford looking at big trades with Edmonton and Carolina. Also said pouliot isn't untouchable anymore

Downies PIMs are a bit skewed due to 10 min. misconducts he's recieved late in games.
- willi

Yup. Good resource having a short bench.... Another benefit of downie.... Did I mention selfish?

Adams shot suppression is awesome. But he cannot do anything else. So he had no ability to 'make up' the GA when it happens. Same with Sutter when he gets scored on his ability to get it back is low.
- walshy66

Are GA/60 rates reproducible?

Sid hasn't scored in 23 of our games this season but averages 1.93 points in the games he scores. Wow! Also madden saying Rutherford looking at big trades with Edmonton and Carolina. Also said pouliot isn't untouchable anymore
- dbell646

That stat on Crosby is great and bad at the same time...

I ran them myself. The fancy stats sites appear to be using ES GA and Total TOI to get their numbers. That doesn't make sense. So I used ES GA and ES TOI to get my numbers.
- hardnosed

Yeah, I ran them myself and got numbers very similar to yourself, just slightly off, which could have been a one game difference in time on ice or something, but definitely way closer to yours than his. I wondered what the difference could be I thought it might be total time on ice instead of es toi, but I thought that would be moronic, but I guess that doesn't matter.

Sid hasn't scored in 23 of our games this season but averages 1.93 points in the games he scores. Wow! Also madden saying Rutherford looking at big trades with Edmonton and Carolina
- dbell646

Sutter, Dumoulin, Pouliot for J. Staal?!?

That stat on Crosby is great and bad at the same time...
- Guile

Yea I agree. We shouldn't lose when he scores though

Sutter, Dumoulin, Pouliot for J. Staal?!?
- hardnosed

That would be funny. This board would explode

Sid hasn't scored in 23 of our games this season but averages 1.93 points in the games he scores. Wow! Also madden saying Rutherford looking at big trades with Edmonton and Carolina. Also said pouliot isn't untouchable anymore
- dbell646

Did he take any guesses at what those might be? Because what would be reasonable big trades with those teams? Carolina would have to be one of the Staals for it to be considered a big trade. And Edmonton would have to be Hall or Eberle, maybe Yakupov, but I am not sure that even qualifies as a big trade. I just don't see those being very reasonable trades, and anything else I wouldn't consider big.

Yea I agree. We shouldn't lose when he scores though
- dbell646

So by that logic... He won't score in 3 out of 7 games in a playoff series (43.396% of the games hes been in so far hes not scored). That would imply 4 of 7 he scores in, and we have a very high win rate with him scoring. But, its playoffs, take off 1 of those wins right away, because they can lock him down better, maybe even 2.

This just highlights the need for the bottom 6 to be able to steal 1 out of every 7 games even more.

Yeah, I ran them myself and got numbers very similar to yourself, just slightly off, which could have been a one game difference in time on ice or something, but definitely way closer to yours than his. I wondered what the difference could be I thought it might be total time on ice instead of es toi, but I thought that would be moronic, but I guess that doesn't matter.
- PensFan1103

It's odd, isn't it? Basically means that any PP time a player gets pads their per 60 GA stats, because obviously the other team isn't going to score a 5 on 5 goal while you're on the PP. Conversely, if Sutter scores a shorty, he doesn't get credit for that in terms of 5 on 5 G/60, but he gets tagged with the time spent out on the penalty kill.

With Sutter playing more special teams minutes per game than any other forward (4:14 a game), his per 60 numbers would be pretty heavily skewed.

I'm assuming that all the other per 60 stats are run the same way, based on total TOI. Not doing the math right now, but it would explain why Comeau, Bennett and Downie's per 60 numbers are high, because none of those guys get a ton of special teams time per game.

LA would hang up laughing....
- cap1681

Obiously that would only work if they're out of the playoff hunt. But dotcha think Darryl would love to coach his nephew??