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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Flyers Gameday: 1/27/15 vs. ARI
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PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jan 27 @ 10:55 PM ET
Basically, when Goc is on the ice, he's facing tougher competition and the Pens are allowing fewer shot attempts than the Blues were when Lapierre was on the ice, playing against weaker competition.
- Jsaquella


Blues fourth line has been getting torched. This is a good move for them.

Each of their 4th line players has a Corsi relativity of -10 or more. Scoring chance relativity is off the charts horrible too.

Maybe Pens think Ott and Reaves were bringing Lapierre down. Frankly, I just think all 3 are pretty bad.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jan 27 @ 10:55 PM ET
Read looked faster than he has all season, which Bill kind of predicted would happen.
JonnyHammerstix
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.12.2013

Jan 27 @ 10:56 PM ET
The whole thing is clownshoes, no doubt. If the dude doesn't want to talk to the media, just excuse him. Most guys still relish it, because it's a chance to get their mug in the paper
- Jsaquella


I suppose. I just think he has a responsibility as a professional. The people in Seattle who cheer for him want to hear what he has to say. He's denying them that due to a personal grudge with the NFL. It's pretty childish.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jan 27 @ 10:57 PM ET
Blues fourth line has been getting torched. This is a good move for them.

Each of their 4th line players has a Corsi relativity of -10 or more. Scoring chance relativity is off the charts horrible too.

Maybe Pens think Ott and Reaves were bringing Lapierre down. Frankly, I just think all 3 are pretty bad.

- PhillySportsGuy


Thank God we got Bellemare for 600K and not Ott.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jan 27 @ 10:57 PM ET
when you say less effective, are you implying that goc was less/more effective?
- stayinthefnnet


Goc is more effective. Pens traded for grit. Lapierre is a worse hockey player imo.
JonnyHammerstix
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.12.2013

Jan 27 @ 10:57 PM ET
Read looked faster than he has all season, which Bill kind of predicted would happen.
- Feanor



Yea Read looked really good today. Hopefully this is the Read we'll be seeing for the rest of the year. That would be a huge boost to this team.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jan 27 @ 10:58 PM ET
Thank God we got Bellemare for 600K and not Ott.
- Feanor


I know. Ott has turned into a bad 4th line player.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jan 27 @ 11:00 PM ET
Read looked faster than he has all season, which Bill kind of predicted would happen.
- Feanor


I thought he started looking better just before the break too. Tonight was definitely his best game in a while. He and Couts created a ton of scoring chances for Umberger.
JonnyHammerstix
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.12.2013

Jan 27 @ 11:01 PM ET
Thank God we got Bellemare for 600K and not Ott.
- Feanor


I love Bellemare. What a great 4th line player. He even managed to turn VdV into a player. I'm not familiar with his contract. How long to the Flyers have him signed for?
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jan 27 @ 11:02 PM ET
I love Bellemare. What a great 4th line player. He even managed to turn VdV into a player. I'm not familiar with his contract. How long to the Flyers have him signed for?
- JonnyHammerstix


Just this year I believe. Shouldn't be too hard to get re-signed to a reasonable deal
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jan 27 @ 11:03 PM ET
So a high Corsi is good, because it's hinting toward the fact that the player's team is allowing less shots than "normal" with him on the ice?

So here Goc's Corsi for was like 45 or whatever, if I remember correctly.

Quantify that. Does that mean the team allows 30% less shots with that player on the ice?

- Giroux_Is_God


Straight up Corsi is simply a shot attempt +/-. Corsi for per 60 just shows what that player does spread over 60 minutes. In this case, the Pens with Gc on the ice generate more shots than the Blues had been with Lapierre, and while Goc is playing tougher minutes(more DZ starts and against better competition)

It's not a full picture, because of the impact of teammates, but as PSG points out, the Blues 4th line has been getting hammered as a unit-hard to decipher if it's just a bad mix or a bad guy pulling them down.
JonnyHammerstix
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.12.2013

Jan 27 @ 11:04 PM ET
Just this year I believe. Shouldn't be too hard to get re-signed to a reasonable deal
- PhillySportsGuy



Yea I would love to get him inked to a 2 year deal somewhere between 750k to a mil. Definitely doable.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jan 27 @ 11:04 PM ET
Just this season.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jan 27 @ 11:04 PM ET
Blues fourth line has been getting torched. This is a good move for them.

Each of their 4th line players has a Corsi relativity of -10 or more. Scoring chance relativity is off the charts horrible too.

Maybe Pens think Ott and Reaves were bringing Lapierre down. Frankly, I just think all 3 are pretty bad.

- PhillySportsGuy


I like Goc. He's a good bottom six center. He ca play a variety of roles, handles his business in his own end can be used on PK and solid on faceoffs.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jan 27 @ 11:07 PM ET
I like Goc. He's a good bottom six center. He ca play a variety of roles, handles his business in his own end can be used on PK and solid on faceoffs.
- Jsaquella


He is solid. He's not a guy you can really bump up into the top 6, but he'll do his job and handle the dirty work pretty well. Adding a bad possession player who will take more penalties isn't really what the Pens need imo. I'm not crying over it though
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jan 27 @ 11:12 PM ET
Goc is more effective. Pens traded for grit. Lapierre is a worse hockey player imo.
- PhillySportsGuy


agreed.
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jan 27 @ 11:13 PM ET
I like Goc. He's a good bottom six center. He ca play a variety of roles, handles his business in his own end can be used on PK and solid on faceoffs.
- Jsaquella

exactly.
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jan 27 @ 11:15 PM ET
somewhere rinaldo is saying imagine if i never made that hit. this trade isnt made.
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Jan 27 @ 11:16 PM ET
Straight up Corsi is simply a shot attempt +/-. Corsi for per 60 just shows what that player does spread over 60 minutes. In this case, the Pens with Gc on the ice generate more shots than the Blues had been with Lapierre, and while Goc is playing tougher minutes(more DZ starts and against better competition)

It's not a full picture, because of the impact of teammates, but as PSG points out, the Blues 4th line has been getting hammered as a unit-hard to decipher if it's just a bad mix or a bad guy pulling them down.

- Jsaquella

So what do the actual numbers mean.

What does a TOI % of Competition of 28% actually mean?
If a player has a Corsi For per 60 of 45, what does that mean?

I fully understand that last part. That's my point when we do the Adv Stats game in here if I decide to get involved. Not a full picture, but a useful tool. And one that I'd like to get the hang of.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jan 27 @ 11:33 PM ET
So what do the actual numbers mean.

What does a TOI % of Competition of 28% actually mean?
If a player has a Corsi For per 60 of 45, what does that mean?

I fully understand that last part. That's my point when we do the Adv Stats game in here if I decide to get involved. Not a full picture, but a useful tool. And one that I'd like to get the hang of.

- Giroux_Is_God


A CF60 of 45 means that the team generates 45 shot attempts per 60 minutes when that player is on ice.

TOI % of competition is a Corsi weighted TOI measurement. The only place I have seen it used is war-on-ice.com, and they don't give a ton of explanation to how it's derived.

A lot of advanced stats pioneers are looking at ways to make better use of TOI as a competitive measurement, and the bare bones TOI numbers seems a better measurement, at least to me, because I'm not sure how the TOI % number is calculated.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/howto.php

Measuring Quality of Competition is less straight-forward: we take the ice time-weighted average of a player's opponents' Corsi number relative to his teammates.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jan 27 @ 11:37 PM ET
Rutherford doesn't mind that Lapierre plays on the edge.

He rather likes it, in fact, and noted the physicality in recent games prompted him to make the move. Goc was one of the Penguins' least physical players.

“It certainly seems that we're getting into more physical games than I would have expected,” Rutherford said. “So, yeah, he will help the (Steve) Downies, (Zach) Sills and (Robert) Bortuzzos.”


http://triblive.com/sport...herford-goc#axzz3PwzSwZTM

Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Jan 27 @ 11:59 PM ET
Read looked faster than he has all season, which Bill kind of predicted would happen.
- Feanor


He is so fast at not scoring goals its not even funny
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Jan 28 @ 12:18 AM ET
RJ Umberger has 3X as many goals as Matt Read this year.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Jan 28 @ 12:25 AM ET
Gotta give Berube credit for the quick hook on Razor. Berube...for all the flak he takes, really isn't much of a problem
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Jan 28 @ 1:11 AM ET
Winnipeg has a E. coli water watch for whole city. Having to boil water for or patients
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