Ryan you touched on a really interesting point here: players padding their Corsi. You're one a bad team. You're a mediocre player. You're looking to inject some value into your play. It's interesting to think about. Players know that in many circles, Corsi is being used as the most important indicator of success after points. Some even use it before points. Wonder if that's something we will start to see.
- DoubleDown

Doubt it.

I think the thing missing from that accusation is that guys who actually get hired for a living (like the guy the oilers just hired) watch a TON of film. Despite the "watch the game nerds!" chestnut lobbed at guys like Dellow, they watch more film than anyone, be it the amateur corsi-ites or the media's most fervent corsi-deniers. They're analysts, not lobbyists.

So when Dellow sees a guy that has a great-looking Corsi but nothing to show for it, he's not going to close the book and recommend a 50% raise for the guy. He's going to see on film that the player isn't getting to good areas and is simply chucking up prayers. Mitigating circumstances are certainly important to statistical analysis.

And besides, if taking a bunch of low-percentage shots tangibly effected high impact chances the other way, it would show up in the numbers too. Low-percentage shots are probably value-neutral (or a slight positive). After all, Corsi is a proxy for possession, not how close you are to scoring.

thing i love? when a team has a Fenwick of 49 and they suck but the team with 51 is a really solid possession team. really? those 2 extra shot attempts per game tell you that much? i buy into those stats more on the extremes. when a team like LA is at 55%, ya that's really f-n good. but for the teams in that 48-52 range? wtf is the major difference, really?
- DoubleDown

Yeah, people who act like the Oilers being a break-even team is. It doesn't really square with what we're seeing on the ice, but the "regression" we're "expecting" isn't going to vault them into 1st place or anything. They're a 30th place team that you might expect to be 15th-25th all things being equal

suggested on the other blog, bumped for visibility:

Do you think we could send Nikitin and a small sweetner (3rd/4th/equivalent prospect) for Upsall? Clears cap and he's done after this year. Would rather see him with Drai and Yak if we've gotten to the point where Gaz is a 3rd liner.

Ryan,

You make many good points. You clearly have a good grasp on the situation. That being said, never use the imagery of a plane crash if you want to be taken seriously.

Why? Seemed like a pretty realistic dissection to the Oilers season to date. It truly is amazing that the same results year after year hasn't facilitated "bold change".

It's sad that Ryan has basically outlined what an alcoholic has to go through before they can start to heal & that's admit what reality is & that they have a problem. What you are asking is a sign that you want to keep drinking.
- Kevin R

Sort of easy to play hindsight.

Bold change was trading Eberle 2+ years ago . If Eberle now reportedly gets you Patrik Berglund and Steve Ott, what would he have got you then? Tough to say.

The Oilers need Bold (Good) Moves and only get a few chances to get them right. They dithered too long, no arguments here but hindsight would have one believe that there were handouts galore the Oilers completely ignored up until now.

Problems of talent (in the right areas) persist on this team.

However it's a tad revisionist to claim that MacT hasn't done near everything in his power to change the culture of the team.

- Changed over all but 6 players on the roster
- Hired a new Coach
- Named a new Captain
- He can't fire his boss or buy the team from his owner.

My one-minute analysis: winning cures all. Find the guys that'll mechanically help the team win. Pay the necessary price. POOF! MAGIC! The team has confidence and fire.

Wouldn't a winless five-game homestand have five straight losses?
- jmatchett383

A lesson in reading comprehension. The Oilers closed out a five-game homestand (a stretch of five games at home) with three losses last week (meaning that from last Monday to this Monday, the time period relating to the blog, the team lost three games). Don't drink the bong water.

A lesson in reading comprehension. The Oilers closed out a five-game homestand (a stretch of five games at home) with three losses last week (meaning that from last Monday to this Monday, the time period relating to the blog, the team lost three games). Don't drink the bong water.
- Ryan Garner

Good Blog.


I've been out of Canada for a week and a half, was hoping A- the Oil had turned things around and were getting close to .500 or B- That weiner Eakins would be canned.

Coming back to this being more of a mess sucks.

Come on Oiler players, get it together for the fans.

Good Blog.


I've been out of Canada for a week and a half, was hoping A- the Oil had turned things around and were getting close to .500 or B- That weiner Eakins would be canned.

Coming back to this being more of a mess sucks.

Come on Oiler players, get it together for the fans.
- Byfuglien Ate Me

Not enough fatties. Even the coach barely has like zero fat on his face, all bones.

Not enough fatties. Even the coach barely has like zero fat on his face, all bones.
- Nucker101

They sure could use Penner and Bryz.

Maybe Patty O'Sullivan and Marc Andre Bergeron as well to bring up the work ethic and lead by example...

They sure could use Penner and Bryz.

Maybe Patty O'Sullivan and Marc Andre Bergeron as well to bring up the work ethic and lead by example...
- Byfuglien Ate Me

#BringBackWelly

A lesson in reading comprehension. The Oilers closed out a five-game homestand (a stretch of five games at home) with three losses last week (meaning that from last Monday to this Monday, the time period relating to the blog, the team lost three games). Don't drink the bong water.
- Ryan Garner

Thanks for the pompous response for my simple overlook.

Spec having a field day:

Interesting: T.Dellow has become permanent member of EDM's traveling party, but tonight D. Eakins dresses least Corsi friendly lineup

— Mark Spector (@SportsnetSpec) November 25, 2014

How can this be? MT @kissel87: Oilers 14th/30 in the #NHL in Corsi, dead last in the standings. #corsiplayoffs

— Mark Spector (@SportsnetSpec) November 25, 2014

It'd be worth taking more seriously if it didn't smack of jealousy.

A lesson in reading comprehension. The Oilers closed out a five-game homestand (a stretch of five games at home) with three losses last week (meaning that from last Monday to this Monday, the time period relating to the blog, the team lost three games). Don't drink the bong water.
- Ryan Garner

Great blog, thanks Garner! I can't think of anything that I disagree with.

"Hurray, Corsi dorks" is about the best thing I have read this year. Thanks again for that.

Ryan Garner: TWIRATOME: The Plane Has Crashed Into the Mountain
- Ryan Garner

Jesus Murphy....do I really want to read this?

Jesus Murphy....do I really want to read this?
- Jeropotato

Don't waste your time

Ward says the solution for the Oilers is to trade Schultz

Ryan Garner: TWIRATOME: The Plane Has Crashed Into the Mountain
- Ryan Garner

The truth.

Well done Ryan.

Thanks for the pompous response for my stupid overlook.
- jmatchett383

Fixed for you.

The truth.

Well done Ryan.
- bloatedmosquito

Yeah, he wasn't far off, but I guess what I don't like about Garner is that his blogs are all basically "no Sh!t Sherlock, Captain Obvious" blogs. We all know the team is (frank)ed, terrible and poopty with little hope. I don't need a reminder.
I guess I'm just a positive guy and not a fan of all the negativity when that's all there is as a fan.

Yeah, he wasn't far off, but I guess what I don't like about Garner is that his blogs are all basically "no Sh!t Sherlock, Captain Obvious" blogs. We all know the team is (frank)ed, terrible and poopty with little hope. I don't need a reminder.
I guess I'm just a positive guy and not a fan of all the negativity when that's all there is as a fan.
- Jeropotato

Cynicism can be true =/= all truth is cynical.

Ryan Garner: TWIRATOME: The Plane Has Crashed Into the Mountain
- Ryan Garner

Can't stop shots from Center ice??

So....lost another?