looks like a lot of jealousy if you ask me, specifically the oilers goof especially saying the only reason they're doing well is because of gio and hiller. ya so having a ton of callups like granlund with 8 points in 9 games and jooris with 4 goals and having a second pairing dman like wideman with 7 goals means absolutely nothing

Here's the thing about these advanced stats. Many of the advanced stats are being heavily affected by our first five games, which were exactly the kind of games we were expecting all year and the Flames were getting dominated night-in, night-out. In addition, most of these numbers are coming from a Flames team which features a handful of rookie replacements.

Now, if we fast forward to when this team is relatively healthy in a couple of weeks, we should see a team which is better able to generate possession. And at that point, the dice have no memory, so to speak. The fact that we were at one statistical extreme to begin the season does not mean that we have to then be at the other extreme for a while later in the season to return to the mean. What we can safely expect is that the Flames' PDO will fall, but their possession numbers will probably rise. And at this point, the Flames have put themselves in a great position to succeed. If they can be a few games above .500 in each of the three remaining quarters of the season, there's no reason they shouldn't make the playoffs.

In addition, the analytics don't tell the story of the kind of chances being generated. Take, for example, the Anaheim game. I'm sure that the Corsi and Fenwick numbers were slanted way against us through 40 minutes, because we weren't generating anything. But on the flipside, Anaheim didn't really get any great scoring opportunities. Then flip to the third period, where the Flames woke up, we generated a whole bunch of quality scoring opportunities. The goals that went in were on plays where goals should be going in. Yet I'm sure that the Corsi numbers weren't swung back onto our side.
- TheBold

Absolutely agree, great input. And how about the flames conditioning, and compete level, how do you account for that? They literally might be the hardest working, peskiest team in the league, while having very well rounded offensive numbers from all 4 forward lines and the top 2 defensive pairings.

Since after the break last year, all this team has done is prove everyone wrong by hard work, determination, tenacity, and sticking to a system that actually works (while getting solid goaltending to boot)

I am not a BeFlamer!

(works way better with BeLeafer)

I actually love this underdog reputation. I only hope the teams that are playing the Flames feel the same way as the Corsi geeks do ! I bet the Flames players are feeding off the lack of respect.

I actually love this underdog reputation. I only hope the teams that are playing the Flames feel the same way as the Corsi geeks do ! I bet the Flames players are feeding off the lack of respect.
- tincup

You bet your ass they are!

I think the reason the flames have horrible Corsi stats is because they are getting annihilated in the face-off circle. Agree or disagree?

looks like a lot of jealousy if you ask me, specifically the oilers goof especially saying the only reason they're doing well is because of gio and hiller. ya so having a ton of callups like granlund with 8 points in 9 games and jooris with 4 goals and wideman with 7 goals means absolutely nothing
- FLAM3SFAN

see, i disagree with that. first off henderson is pretty unbiased in terms of assessment, and secondly, it really is unsustainable to keep it up with the shots. take the game against anaheim. it was great, solid win in the shootout, great comeback, but if you get 7 shots through 2 periods and go into the 3rd with a 2 goal deficit, winning is an anomaly as opposed to a trend.

i'm proud as hell of being a flames fan right now. the young guys are exciting, the leadership is there, it's fun watching them beat good teams and you can honestly see the development. but my expectations are still low. if someone says they don't think the flames are any good, i don't think we should all automatically point to the standings and say they're wrong. i think it should be a "we may be playing over our heads, but damn if it isn't fun watching them do so" and be done with it.

But both of those teams sustained it enough to make the playoffs for a season, which was the question.
- sbroads24

it's really hard to take that guy seriously, firstly he's a complete dumbass, secondly he writes for the coyotes
oh and btw james the avs were first in their division last year getting outshot you plug

see, i disagree with that. first off henderson is pretty unbiased in terms of assessment, and secondly, it really is unsustainable to keep it up with the shots. take the game against anaheim. it was great, solid win in the shootout, great comeback, but if you get 7 shots through 2 periods and go into the 3rd with a 2 goal deficit, winning is an anomaly as opposed to a trend.

i'm proud as hell of being a flames fan right now. the young guys are exciting, the leadership is there, it's fun watching them beat good teams and you can honestly see the development. but my expectations are still low. if someone says they don't think the flames are any good, i don't think we should all automatically point to the standings and say they're wrong. i think it should be a "we may be playing over our heads, but damn if it isn't fun watching them do so" and be done with it.
- chester97

k... not sure what that has to do with him specifically saying gio and hiller are the ONLY reason they're doing well, cause thats completely untrue

Gio has been doing this for a while now:

http://www.quanthockey.co...ons-defensemen-stats.html

it's really hard to take that guy seriously, firstly he's a complete dumbass, secondly he writes for the coyotes
oh and btw james the avs were first in their division last year getting outshot you plug
- FLAM3SFAN

The "Analytics community" lose me when Corsi and PDO become somehow more significant than actual goals and wins.

There is a common sense angle to these debates that are always lost.

It's common sense that Mark Giordano is not at 31 years old all of the sudden a 85 point player. It's also common sense that Granlund isn't all the sudden a 70 point player, and Wideman obviously isn't a 30 goal defensemen. I don't need this explained to me in terms of PDO or Corsi numbers.

However as Colorado proved, young teams like them or the Flames can overachieve.

Colorado took Minny to game 7 OT. How is that some sort of fluke? If they were really that average they would have been eliminated in 4 or 5 games

Does luck have anything to do with it?
Check out Gio's left eye and the answer's pretty obvious...
A couple of millimetres further and his career might have been over.

The "Analytics community" lose me when Corsi and PDO become somehow more significant than actual goals and wins.

There is a common sense angle to these debates that are always lost.

It's common sense that Mark Giordano is not at 31 years old all of the sudden a 85 point player. It's also common sense that Granlund isn't all the sudden a 70 point player, and Wideman obviously isn't a 30 goal defensemen. I don't need this explained to me in terms of PDO or Corsi numbers.

However as Colorado proved, young teams like them or the Flames can overachieve.

Colorado took Minny to game 7 OT. How is that some sort of fluke? If they were really that average they would have been eliminated in 4 or 5 games
- sbroads24

exactly. everyone flames blog has a bunch of non flames fan coming on and telling us how this is "unsustainable"
you don't say

the fact is, it doesn't have to be anymore for them to have a shot at the playoffs. they can play 500 hockey the rest of the year (which they have been since about last january) and still get a chance at the playoffs

i have no problem with people saying the flames won't make the playoffs. yes, their numbers as is look unsustainable for the entire year and there's a long ways to go.

the problem i have, personally, is with this segment:

"The other thing is that Giordano is playing out of his mind and would win the Norris if it was awarded a month and a half into the season. The thing is, while he's a great player, he isn't actually the best defensemen in the NHL and as his play goes back to his normal level, the so will the Flames.

Not to completely discount what Giordano is doing, because it's impressive, but what is more likely a) 31 year old very good defenseman suddenly becomes NHL's best or b) veteran star defenseman goes on hot streak where he's the best for a while.

Bottom line, Calgary will finish closer to the basement than the playoffs when its all over."

you're spending too much time fawning over the high end oilers talent and cursing eakins for not giving yakupov more pp time. Gio had 47 points in 64 games last year. 40 points in 47 games the year before that. he was a +12 on a team that finished 4th last. leading defensemen in scoring this year is no fluke, nor is his +9 and leadership that has helped turn tj brodie into the 4th leading scorer among dmen.

he's not just a norris front runner at the 1/4 point of the season, he's a hart trophy front runner. yeah, he's 31, and yeah, every franchise would rather have a webber/keith/subban/ etc. but he, this year, is among the best dman in the league. there is no player more valuable to a franchise than gio right now, as he's developing the mindset and identity for a team that was going nowhere and gave them direction. watch a game, and then watch 10. he's not playing out of his mind. he's playing exactly how he's played for more than two years.


- chester97

Actually every team would love to have a GIO in their lineup as well & the price to get him would be very, very high.

Actually every team would love to have a GIO in their lineup as well & the price to get him would be very, very high.
- newmy

oh for sure, i'm not saying he wouldn't be welcome. i'm saying that if given the choice between gio or webber for the future, or keith, or subban, every team picks the other guy since gio is 31. but within the vacuum of this season, he's the best in the league

Hahaha! So if the Flames do make the playoffs will the Stat Geeks come out & say Stats is an Analytical tool to show what has happened during a given sample size & has no foundation of being a predictor of performance? Stick your PDO up your arses & here's why:

Your Honor (Ed) & Ladies & Gents of the Jury(the rest of you & I emphasize ladies)

Exhibit 1: Elite numbers of the top pairing defencemen is not an anomaly. The stats supported Gio & Brodie last year in the 2nd half. In fact, had Gio not got injured last November, he was in the running for Canada's Olympic team. After the Oly break, that top pairing killed it. In addition, when Gio, Brody & Backlund were on the ice together, the possession numbers were elite in the NHL. Please note, this win streak has occurred when their top Possession Centreman has been injured. How does this support regression?

Exhibit 2: Compare the stats on where the shots are coming from to last year from the forward group. I think you will find unenlightening result. Could it be that the Flames are taking fewer shots hence dragging down the Corsi in favour of waiting to get that shot from a better position, hence the increased shooting percentages. Could this stat not be from the fact that the Flames players are better coached & finding success in what they are being taught & executing.

Exhibit 3: Flames have had their share of injuries but when their AHL players are called up & inserted in the lineup, they are performing as well or if not better than the player they are replacing. Interesting to note that the majority of the key injuries so far has been in the forwards. Flames prospects coming in are not 18-19 year olds just drafted. They are College players with very good NHLE numbers that are 20-21-22 years old. They are not getting overwhelmed & we still have many more champing at the bit that are ready as well in Arnold, Knight, Agostino & so on. 4 years ago Flames were ranked one of the worst in Hockey Futures, today they are 2nd. Don't be so surprised when rookies & sophomores are having success in the NHL with the Flames.

Exhibit 4: Last year the Flames goalies save percentages were way below league average, in fact Matt, well, they kinda look like the Oilers goalies save percentages today. Ramo in the last half of last year improved his percentages back up to closer than league average. This year Hiller was unreal & Ramo was over league average as well. Hiller has regressed back down already since the first 10 games & I don't see why the Stats community would think it is not possible for the Flames to maintain league average or just above league average goaltending from our goaltending tandem.

In conclusion: I think if you at all fair when giving these predictions that some of you have based on a 20 game sample size, is that the first 10 game sample size was very unattainable, but the 2nd sample size for games 11 thru 20 are causing that Corsi to rise "up" to the mean. PDO is useless in predicting because of 2 things, players are human beings & performance is affected by other factors & the parity in the league. It's a fine line between playoff teams & non playoff teams. Matt, seeing Oilers have converted to a Stat Organization, how do the Stat geeks account for the fact that the Oilers haven't beaten a Western Conference team yet but the Buffalo Sabres, whom I would dare say according to most Oiler fans & followers are totally inferior team to the Oilers have beaten both Anaheim & San Jose quite soundly. Stat geeks, explain that puppy??

Hahaha! So if the Flames do make the playoffs will the Stat Geeks come out & say Stats is an Analytical tool to show what has happened during a given sample size & has no foundation of being a predictor of performance? Stick your PDO up your arses & here's why:

Your Honor (Ed) & Ladies & Gents of the Jury(the rest of you & I emphasize ladies)

Exhibit 1: Elite numbers of the top pairing defencemen is not an anomaly. The stats supported Gio & Brodie last year in the 2nd half. In fact, had Gio not got injured last November, he was in the running for Canada's Olympic team. After the Oly break, that top pairing killed it. In addition, when Gio, Brody & Backlund were on the ice together, the possession numbers were elite in the NHL. Please note, this win streak has occurred when their top Possession Centreman has been injured. How does this support regression?

Exhibit 2: Compare the stats on where the shots are coming from to last year from the forward group. I think you will find unenlightening result. Could it be that the Flames are taking fewer shots hence dragging down the Corsi in favour of waiting to get that shot from a better position, hence the increased shooting percentages. Could this stat not be from the fact that the Flames players are better coached & finding success in what they are being taught & executing.

Exhibit 3: Flames have had their share of injuries but when their AHL players are called up & inserted in the lineup, they are performing as well or if not better than the player they are replacing. Interesting to note that the majority of the key injuries so far has been in the forwards. Flames prospects coming in are not 18-19 year olds just drafted. They are College players with very good NHLE numbers that are 20-21-22 years old. They are not getting overwhelmed & we still have many more champing at the bit that are ready as well in Arnold, Knight, Agostino & so on. 4 years ago Flames were ranked one of the worst in Hockey Futures, today they are 2nd. Don't be so surprised when rookies & sophomores are having success in the NHL with the Flames.

Exhibit 4: Last year the Flames goalies save percentages were way below league average, in fact Matt, well, they kinda look like the Oilers goalies save percentages today. Ramo in the last half of last year improved his percentages back up to closer than league average. This year Hiller was unreal & Ramo was over league average as well. Hiller has regressed back down already since the first 10 games & I don't see why the Stats community would think it is not possible for the Flames to maintain league average or just above league average goaltending from our goaltending tandem.

In conclusion: I think if you at all fair when giving these predictions that some of you have based on a 20 game sample size, is that the first 10 game sample size was very unattainable, but the 2nd sample size for games 11 thru 20 are causing that Corsi to rise "up" to the mean. PDO is useless in predicting because of 2 things, players are human beings & performance is affected by other factors & the parity in the league. It's a fine line between playoff teams & non playoff teams. Matt, seeing Oilers have converted to a Stat Organization, how do the Stat geeks account for the fact that the Oilers haven't beaten a Western Conference team yet but the Buffalo Sabres, whom I would dare say according to most Oiler fans & followers are totally inferior team to the Oilers have beaten both Anaheim & San Jose quite soundly. Stat geeks, explain that puppy??
- Kevin R

Too many stats analysts are missing the fact that the Flames are currently playing without 3 of their top 4 centermen, and 2 of their top 6 wingers. Yes, the possession stats look soft. They're winning anyway. While shooting percentage can't possibly stay this high, the possession numbers and scoring chances will increase as the team gets healthier again. Don't expect shooting percentage regression to cause a dramatic fall in their overall success. There's more at work here right now.

Hahaha! So if the Flames do make the playoffs will the Stat Geeks come out & say Stats is an Analytical tool to show what has happened during a given sample size & has no foundation of being a predictor of performance? Stick your PDO up your arses & here's why:

Your Honor (Ed) & Ladies & Gents of the Jury(the rest of you & I emphasize ladies)

Exhibit 1: Elite numbers of the top pairing defencemen is not an anomaly. The stats supported Gio & Brodie last year in the 2nd half. In fact, had Gio not got injured last November, he was in the running for Canada's Olympic team. After the Oly break, that top pairing killed it. In addition, when Gio, Brody & Backlund were on the ice together, the possession numbers were elite in the NHL. Please note, this win streak has occurred when their top Possession Centreman has been injured. How does this support regression?

Exhibit 2: Compare the stats on where the shots are coming from to last year from the forward group. I think you will find unenlightening result. Could it be that the Flames are taking fewer shots hence dragging down the Corsi in favour of waiting to get that shot from a better position, hence the increased shooting percentages. Could this stat not be from the fact that the Flames players are better coached & finding success in what they are being taught & executing.

Exhibit 3: Flames have had their share of injuries but when their AHL players are called up & inserted in the lineup, they are performing as well or if not better than the player they are replacing. Interesting to note that the majority of the key injuries so far has been in the forwards. Flames prospects coming in are not 18-19 year olds just drafted. They are College players with very good NHLE numbers that are 20-21-22 years old. They are not getting overwhelmed & we still have many more champing at the bit that are ready as well in Arnold, Knight, Agostino & so on. 4 years ago Flames were ranked one of the worst in Hockey Futures, today they are 2nd. Don't be so surprised when rookies & sophomores are having success in the NHL with the Flames.

Exhibit 4: Last year the Flames goalies save percentages were way below league average, in fact Matt, well, they kinda look like the Oilers goalies save percentages today. Ramo in the last half of last year improved his percentages back up to closer than league average. This year Hiller was unreal & Ramo was over league average as well. Hiller has regressed back down already since the first 10 games & I don't see why the Stats community would think it is not possible for the Flames to maintain league average or just above league average goaltending from our goaltending tandem.

In conclusion: I think if you at all fair when giving these predictions that some of you have based on a 20 game sample size, is that the first 10 game sample size was very unattainable, but the 2nd sample size for games 11 thru 20 are causing that Corsi to rise "up" to the mean. PDO is useless in predicting because of 2 things, players are human beings & performance is affected by other factors & the parity in the league. It's a fine line between playoff teams & non playoff teams. Matt, seeing Oilers have converted to a Stat Organization, how do the Stat geeks account for the fact that the Oilers haven't beaten a Western Conference team yet but the Buffalo Sabres, whom I would dare say according to most Oiler fans & followers are totally inferior team to the Oilers have beaten both Anaheim & San Jose quite soundly. Stat geeks, explain that puppy??
- Kevin R

There are so many good points in this thread that the "experts" have gone quiet . Now that regular hockey fans are beginning to understand what advanced stats are trying to tell us it is getting much harder for writers to attempt to bullpoop their way through an argument.

Some of these writers using advanced stats in their blog should go out and take an actual Statistics class. That way they can learn that "long-run probability" in stats does not mean 10,50, or even 100 games. It means it can take a nearly infinite number of outcomes to get results at the mean. Is their a chance we regress down to the mean? Yes. Is their a certainty? No

There are so many good points in this thread that the "experts" have gone quiet . Now that regular hockey fans are beginning to understand what advanced stats are trying to tell us it is getting much harder for writers to attempt to bullpoop their way through an argument.

Some of these writers using advanced stats in their blog should go out and take an actual Statistics class. That way they can learn that "long-run probability" in stats does not mean 10,50, or even 100 games. It means it can take a nearly infinite number of outcomes to get results at the mean. Is their a chance we regress down to the mean? Yes. Is their a certainty? No
- Saskabush

Especially when the variables are constantly changing. Hockey outcomes don't occur in a vacuum.

This is how I look at it:

Todd Cordell: Doesn't Watch the flames play.
Ryan Wilson: Doesn't Watch the flames play.
Matt Henderson: Oiler Fan so it doesn't count
Ed Stein: Admitted he only watched the flames play once
James Tanner: Obviously doesn't watch the flames based on his comments on Gio.
Tim Chiasson: I agree with those comments
Adam French: I agree with those comments

I think it comes down to if the Calgary defence can stay healthy. We do not have the depth at defence to account for this. Specifically the way Calgary enters the offensive zone. There is always a dman jumping up in the rush for a 4-3 odd man rush. This really opens things up. I have never seen this type of coaching. And it is a blast to watch.
- tmurph

I said I watched them for the full 65 minutes. It isn't the first time I've seen the Flames play. I watch many games and flip channels. One of my favorite perks of the job is I get to write off the Center Ice package.

So I'm the only one who sticks up for Calgary. I say they hustle, they carry themselves well and have a battle tested goalie, but the only thing that is said (incorrectly) is that I've only seen them once.

Where's the love FlameNation?

Corsi means NOTHING!!

I said I watched them for the full 65 minutes. It isn't the first time I've seen the Flames play. I watch many games and flip channels. One of my favorite perks of the job is I get to write off the Center Ice package.

So I'm the only one who sticks up for Calgary. I say they hustle, they carry themselves well and have a battle tested goalie, but the only thing that is said (incorrectly) is that I've only seen them once.

Where's the love FlameNation?
- Ed Stein

Don't feel bad, you just got overshadowed by the pure stupidity of the rest of the "analysis".

I enjoyed your piece.

I said I watched them for the full 65 minutes. It isn't the first time I've seen the Flames play. I watch many games and flip channels. One of my favorite perks of the job is I get to write off the Center Ice package.

So I'm the only one who sticks up for Calgary. I say they hustle, they carry themselves well and have a battle tested goalie, but the only thing that is said (incorrectly) is that I've only seen them once.

Where's the love FlameNation?
- Ed Stein

I called you "Your Honor"

Calgary is better than I thought, I think them and Vancouver will replace Dallas and Colorado in the playoffs the way things are going.