So did Kessel and Lupul
- Fakepartofme

Lupul breaks that partnership far too often through injury. I stopped counting on Lupul last year.

A week ago or so I said, if they put Lupul, Bozak and Kessel on the same line( three righties) you lose those cross ice - two on one passes between JVR and Kessel, that was a lethal combo.
- LeafMan

Of the best in the league.

Apparently they watch every single minute of every single game I'm told.
- LeafMan

Veeeery interesting.

Veeeery interesting.
- Fakepartofme

pretty sure the guys who do the stat tracking for games do it during the game - and its part of their job to do it again after the game on video to ensure accuracy? no? im almost positive thats how it works..

it was 82 games to prove it
- senstroll

So, the stats predicted a total, late season collapse?

because at the 68 game mark, we actually had well over 100 games where the Leafs were mostly contrary to the advanced stats, win or lose and at that time, apparently the sample size was too small ...

but as soon as the Leafs stumbled ... well then, the sample size is suddenly just right.

Oh ... and most people were pretty close to the Leafs ending position without using advanced stats.

I am not anti-advanced stats. I am against most of the proponents because of their arrogant attitude and willful stupidity. I am also not convinced that the current advanced stats tell me much of anything.

I want better advanced stats that are also more "limited" in their conclusions so we don't start havign arguements that the Leafs didn't make the playoffs because we didn't have Clarke (SuperCorsi) MacArthur on the team.

Could the same not be said about the people who do the stats.
So many chances for human error.
- Fakepartofme

sure
like anything there is a % for error.

it was 82 games to prove it
- senstroll

Answer honestly...

If the Leafs didn't stumble, but continued on their pace last season, do you really think that the advanced stats proponents would admit that they just don't work?

No f'ing way.

The line would become "one season is not a large enough sample size". That response would continue until the first 10-game losing streak, at which point, suddenly, the stats were right all along.

Yeah and I have consistently been told that any sample size that belies the advance stats is meaningless (68 games, too small) ... but the 14 game sample size that followed proved the stats are right!

As I have said so many times. You cannot debate the efficacy of advanced stats with some people because they simply ignore when the stats are wrong and as soon as they "work", you get an "I told you so".
- Aetherial

i don't think anyone judges the Leafs solely on those last 15ish games. if it was the case, the Leafs would be thought of along the lines of Buffalo and Calgary.

So, the stats predicted a total, late season collapse?

because at the 68 game mark, we actually had well over 100 games where the Leafs were mostly contrary to the advanced stats, win or lose and at that time, apparently the sample size was too small ...

but as soon as the Leafs stumbled ... well then, the sample size is suddenly just right.

Oh ... and most people were pretty close to the Leafs ending position without using advanced stats.

I am not anti-advanced stats. I am against most of the proponents because of their arrogant attitude and willful stupidity. I am also not convinced that the current advanced stats tell me much of anything.
- Aetherial

ok they were wrong about the leafs... carry on

my eyes watched and I thought the leafs were a bad team with good goaltending ..for most of it

i don't think anyone judges the Leafs solely on those last 15ish games. if it was the case, the Leafs would be thought of along the lines of Buffalo and Calgary.
- DoubleDown

well... arenn't we thought of that way? I think we are as hopeless as those two teams.

ok they were wrong about the leafs... carry on

my eyes watched and I thought the leafs were a bad team with good goaltending ..for most of it
- senstroll

yeah, pretty much sums it up.

Their roster was not as bad as the results. I don't believe that the Sens roster last season was better than ours and yet, they finished higher.

I think the problem was coaching and leadership. The two things they didnt change and I'm not real hopeful for this season

ok they were wrong about the leafs... carry on

my eyes watched and I thought the leafs were a bad team with good goaltending ..for most of it
- senstroll

I'd say the Leafs had a very, very questionnable defensive system/cast with good goaltending.

Offense was just fine.

Answer honestly...

If the Leafs didn't stumble, but continued on their pace last season, do you really think that the advanced stats proponents would admit that they just don't work?

No f'ing way.

The line would become "one season is not a large enough sample size". That response would continue until the first 10-game losing streak, at which point, suddenly, the stats were right all along.
- Aetherial

no of course not. but i don't look at it so black and white. i don't see 1 outlier and say "the data means nothing". it's like your kid bringing home a 90% on an algebra test. he's not perfect but he's obviously knows his poop. i remember the 2001-02 Habs. terrible, terrible hockey team. couldn't score for poop, rag tag defenders and just a crap roster outside a piece or two and phenomenal goalie. i could guarantee that if stats were around back then, Montreal would have been at or near the bottom of every category. but they had Jose Theodore play out of his mind for 3 months. if that happened today, no one would say the stats were wrong. they'd say "that is one poopty hockey team and one great goalie"...

well... arenn't we thought of that way? I think we are as hopeless as those two teams.
- Aetherial

no you guys are thought of as playoff bubble team. which is worse in a way.

no you guys are thought of as playoff bubble team. which is worse in a way.
- DoubleDown

Simmon's " Kessel is lying"

How about they ban him from the team?

Simmon's " Kessel is lying"

How about they ban him from the team?


- Garnie

Give him to us for 2 firsts and a second

Answer honestly...

If the Leafs didn't stumble, but continued on their pace last season, do you really think that the advanced stats proponents would admit that they just don't work?

No f'ing way.

The line would become "one season is not a large enough sample size". That response would continue until the first 10-game losing streak, at which point, suddenly, the stats were right all along.
- Aetherial

You could be right, but it really doesn't matter.

All season long, the adv. stats community said that the Leafs couldn't sustain their win % with the way they were playing. They eventually wore down and fell off the cliff, just as was predicted.

A hypothetical about what that community would have said if things went differently isn't going to change the fact that they called their shot, and it went the way they said it would.

- Woderwick

Don't be sad...anything can happen in the East, I expect the Leafs to finish ahead of the Habs.

Might be just me but I like to watch a game and not have these preconceived stats in my head while I watch it, I rather just enjoy watching the game, I can leave the stats to analytic nerds, I really don't care about them, sucks the enjoyment out of the game for me.
- LeafMan

Trust me, it's not just you.

new blog everyone

Give him to us for 2 firsts and a second
- RickJames77

never

yeah, pretty much sums it up.

Their roster was not as bad as the results. I don't believe that the Sens roster last season was better than ours and yet, they finished higher.

I think the problem was coaching and leadership. The two things they didnt change and I'm not real hopeful for this season
- Aetherial

I agree with the Bold parts
I may not be hopeful for this season either...but I am for the future now.. once Nonis and RC are gone I will be be like a teen with his first nudie mag

You could be right, but it really doesn't matter.

All season long, the adv. stats community said that the Leafs couldn't sustain their win % with the way they were playing. They eventually wore down and fell off the cliff, just as was predicted.

A hypothetical about what that community would have said if things went differently isn't going to change the fact that they called their shot, and it went the way they said it would.
- TheThrill

Nobody ever told me which advanced stat measured the likelihood of a goalie getting injured.


That being said, advanced stats have value, but aren't the end-all, as the Leafs showed for the last two seasons.

Trust me, it's not just you.
- Feeling Glucky?

I could never be a statistician for this reason as well. But I do like the signings we made this off-season, which have been verified to be adv. stats-based acquisitions.

There is a place for it in hockey, as a tool.