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Forums :: Blog World :: Travis Yost: Three-Year RelativeCorsi% Fun
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spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Aug 6 @ 4:33 PM ET
I'd be curious as to why. Yost seemed like he was talking about present day and not factoring in age/contract and what not. If this is a purely skill-based assessment, I think it's hard to argue that any of those bold names (as well as a few others) are better than Joe.
- MaximumBone


Thornton had 76 points, was plus 20 and played some great hockey last year. Why are some of you guys ignoring the reality if hard performance.
TommyDeVito
Ottawa Senators
Location: We're gonna skate to one song, and one song only.
Joined: 12.15.2010

Aug 6 @ 4:54 PM ET
Is this stat 5 on 5 based only?

It's hard to look at one advanced stat alone and make a conclusion. There is value in Corsi/Fenwick but it has severe limitations.

There is still consistency and value in this evaluation as the players are being compared on that same single stat and also its broken down, it seems to compare similar players as far as ice time and roles so there is consistency.

For a stat like this you really need to consider zone starts, TOI and volume of shots.

I take issue with any Corsi/Fenwick stats because it also doesn't take into consideration quality of shots. I could fire 100 pucks towards the net from centre ice and score 0 times. Great for Corsi, not so great for offense.

Great article regardless Yost. I will continue reading.

- Allan Bester


Corsi/Fenwick have been shown over and over and over again to be correlated directly to possession time, to the point of a 0.9 correlaiton coefficient.

There is no argument otherwise that makes any sense at this point, so anyone saying Corsi isn't useful at this point is just in denial or uneducated about what it is.

Secondly, your second point is stupid, because nobody does that. Nobody. You would be benched forever.

Stop trying to justify your team's poor numbers and accept it for what it is.
TommyDeVito
Ottawa Senators
Location: We're gonna skate to one song, and one song only.
Joined: 12.15.2010

Aug 6 @ 4:57 PM ET
Sidney Crosby
Evgeni Malkin
Jonathan Toews
Anze Kopitar
Jeff Carter
Steven Stamkos
Ryan Getzlaf
Ryan Kesler
Claude Giroux
Matt Duchene
John Tavares
Tyler Seguin
Eric Staal
Ryan O'Reilly
Nathan MacKinnon
David Krejci
Patrice Bergeron
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Henrik Sedin
Pavel Datsyuk
David Backes
Paul Stastny
Nicklas Backstrom

Does that qualify as "a few"?

- tkecanuck341


If you disregard age, just where the player is at today, none of the bolded have any business being mentioned in the same breath as Joe.

And I (frank)ing hate Joe Thornton.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Aug 6 @ 5:00 PM ET
If you disregard age, just where the player is at today, none of the bolded have any business being mentioned in the same breath as Joe.

And I (frank)ing hate Joe Thornton.

- TommyDeVito



I concur on both points.
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Aug 6 @ 5:02 PM ET
Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jonathan Toews, Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Steven Stamkos, Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler, Claude Giroux, Matt Duchene, John Tavares, Tyler Seguin, Eric Staal, Ryan O'Reilly, Nathan MacKinnon, David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Henrik Sedin, Pavel Datsyuk, David Backes, Paul Stastny, Nicklas Backstrom

Does that qualify as "a few"?

- tkecanuck341


If it's for one season I'd take Thornton over RNH, and probably Eric Staal but not over Logan Couture or Joe Pavelski

If you disregard age, just where the player is at today, none of the bolded have any business being mentioned in the same breath as Joe.

And I (frank)ing hate Joe Thornton.

- TommyDeVito


I'd rather have Duchene, O'Reilly, H. Sedin, and Backstrom than Thornton. Better 200 feet players
TheNugeIsHuge
Edmonton Oilers
Location: McJesus, AB
Joined: 01.09.2013

Aug 6 @ 5:07 PM ET
Gordon's relative numbers are pretty skewed by his 20% OZS n most common line mates of Hendricks and Smyth.

Man, you must be happy OTT didn't trade for Stewart like rumours were reporting towards the end of the year. Looks at those numbers
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Aug 6 @ 5:46 PM ET
Sidney Crosby- 1.398
Evgeni Malkin- 1.220
Jonathan Toews- .909
Anze Kopitar- .904
Jeff Carter- .723
Steven Stamkos- 1.039
Ryan Getzlaf- .961
Ryan Kesler- .600
Claude Giroux- .908
Matt Duchene- .780
John Tavares- .900
Tyler Seguin- .724
Eric Staal- .895
Ryan O'Reilly- .554
Nathan MacKinnon- .768
David Krejci- .750
Patrice Bergeron- .751
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins- .725
Henrik Sedin- .834
Pavel Datsyuk- .976
David Backes- .543
Paul Stastny- .851
Nicklas Backstrom- .998

Here's That Same list of players and their Points Per Game. The bolded players average over 70 points over a full season.

Joe Thornton is at .989 ppg
Shaundre93
Boston Bruins
Location: Standish, ME
Joined: 07.18.2013

Aug 6 @ 5:51 PM ET
Fun read. I'd love to see how the elite possession drivers stack up against each other. Crosby, Towes, Kopitar, Bergeron and Jumbo Joe come to mind.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Aug 6 @ 6:17 PM ET
Fun read. I'd love to see how the elite possession drivers stack up against each other. Crosby, Towes, Kopitar, Bergeron and Jumbo Joe come to mind.
- Shaundre93


What I still have not yet understood is how you interpret the statistics for a guy like Mike Ribero who gets good point totals but really weak Corsi.

Or guys like Spezza and Karlsson who have great point production, good Corsi but end up being minus 26 and minus 15 in plus/minus.

My eyes tell me exactly why this happens. But measured outcomes like Corsi are entirely inconsistent with actual game performance.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

Aug 6 @ 6:41 PM ET
What I still have not yet understood is how you interpret the statistics for a guy like Mike Ribero who gets good point totals but really weak Corsi.

Or guys like Spezza and Karlsson who have great point production, good Corsi but end up being minus 26 and minus 15 in plus/minus.

My eyes tell me exactly why this happens. But measured outcomes like Corsi are entirely inconsistent with actual game performance.

- spatso


A team that loses every game 5-4 is still going to have a lot of players with "good point totals", yet still have a 0-82 record at the end of the season. Corsi measures their proportion of offensive shot totals vs defensive shot totals. Scoring chances for vs against can generally be directly extrapolated from these counts. Sure, there is some minor variance due to poor shot quality vs good shot quality, but not enough to dismiss the stat.
Talkshowhost
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 10.17.2010

Aug 6 @ 7:10 PM ET

I take issue with any Corsi/Fenwick stats because it also doesn't take into consideration quality of shots. I could fire 100 pucks towards the net from centre ice and score 0 times. Great for Corsi, not so great for offense.


- Allan Bester



I cannot believe people are still making this argument.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

Aug 6 @ 7:14 PM ET
I cannot believe people are still making this argument.
- Talkshowhost


Agreed. I look at Corsi fairly extensively. However, I am just as annoyed at people that use Corsi as a direct comparison metric like Goals or Points. You can't just take two arbitrary players from the league, compare their CF%, and say "this guy is better than that guy because his Corsi is better." Some guy on the Ducks blog did that to me last week and I wanted to jump through the computer monitor and strangle him to death.
Talkshowhost
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 10.17.2010

Aug 6 @ 7:40 PM ET
Agreed. I look at Corsi fairly extensively. However, I am just as annoyed at people that use Corsi as a direct comparison metric like Goals or Points. You can't just take two arbitrary players from the league, compare their CF%, and say "this guy is better than that guy because his Corsi is better." Some guy on the Ducks blog did that to me last week and I wanted to jump through the computer monitor and strangle him to death.
- tkecanuck341


It's amazing how people make this quality shot argument by saying there could be a large amount of data showing players taking shots outside the offensive zone, like have these people even watched a hockey game? This hardly ever happens. There has even been work on how far out an average shot comes from every team, and it's not that different from team to team.
JIwasinskiJr
Boston Bruins
Location: Ludlow, MA
Joined: 02.09.2011

Aug 6 @ 8:02 PM ET
For the love of god......here we have another advance stat blog and what seems to be very little understanding of how it correlates to player production.

At this point I wish the people that look at a single number would just stop attempting to write about it.

And FYI, THE ODD SPIKE OR DIP WAS A LOCKOUT HALF YEAR!!!!
JIwasinskiJr
Boston Bruins
Location: Ludlow, MA
Joined: 02.09.2011

Aug 6 @ 8:05 PM ET
Means he's bad at hockey.

I dont get how Polak and Orpik are looked at as shutdown guys. At least AMAC puts up a little offense to go along with his crap corsi rel.

The team effect though is still evident. Seguin leaves Boston and his numbers tumble.

- Iggysbff



That's only part of the difference.

He was playing with arguably the top Corsi player in the NHL THE TWO YEARS BEFORE IN Bergeron.

And he went from a line in Boston that was supposed to play two way defense and stop the opponents top line.

TOO

A line that's job was to score as much as possible in Dallas.
JIwasinskiJr
Boston Bruins
Location: Ludlow, MA
Joined: 02.09.2011

Aug 6 @ 8:08 PM ET
Is this stat 5 on 5 based only?

It's hard to look at one advanced stat alone and make a conclusion. There is value in Corsi/Fenwick but it has severe limitations.

There is still consistency and value in this evaluation as the players are being compared on that same single stat and also its broken down, it seems to compare similar players as far as ice time and roles so there is consistency.

For a stat like this you really need to consider zone starts, TOI and volume of shots.

I take issue with any Corsi/Fenwick stats because it also doesn't take into consideration quality of shots. I could fire 100 pucks towards the net from centre ice and score 0 times. Great for Corsi, not so great for offense.

Great article regardless Yost. I will continue reading.

- Allan Bester


Thank God there are a few sane person getting the big picture.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Aug 6 @ 8:13 PM ET
For the love of god......here we have another advance stat blog and what seems to be very little understanding of how it correlates to player production.

At this point I wish the people that look at a single number would just stop attempting to write about it.

And FYI, THE ODD SPIKE OR DIP WAS A LOCKOUT HALF YEAR!!!!

- JIwasinskiJr




let me translate for those who don't speak troll

"you took a shot at my favorite player, so i'm gonna tell you that you have no idea what you're talking about, but am not going to point out where you were wrong, and what the correct interpretation is, because frankly i don't have a (frank)ing clue what i'm talking about"
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Aug 6 @ 8:14 PM ET
Thank God there are a few sane person getting the big picture.
- JIwasinskiJr


yes, proving his point by talking about firing shots from center ice........he TOTALLY gets it.
JIwasinskiJr
Boston Bruins
Location: Ludlow, MA
Joined: 02.09.2011

Aug 6 @ 8:23 PM ET
What I still have not yet understood is how you interpret the statistics for a guy like Mike Ribero who gets good point totals but really weak Corsi.

Or guys like Spezza and Karlsson who have great point production, good Corsi but end up being minus 26 and minus 15 in plus/minus.

My eyes tell me exactly why this happens. But measured outcomes like Corsi are entirely inconsistent with actual game performance.

- spatso


Usually Corsi and fenwick are 5v 5 numbers and usually point totals include PP points.

Therefore there is a need to look deeper into the numbers.
OVI led the year in goals but half of his goals were on the PP. This is also true of Karlsson as he is his teams offense often on the PP many times but it will not help his Corsi and fenwick 5 on 5.

Include the idea that some of the time on ice is influenced with special teams.

Example.....Bergeron plays on the PK for the bruins and Krejic does not.
So TOI is important to consider. The minutes on a PK are not as productive as the 5 on 5 numbers or the PP numbers that Krejic will have more of throughout the year.

And as you stated there is the o zone and d zone starts that also influence the numbers.

Usually the best charts to look at are the four sector charts showing a colored circle of different sizes.

Those include o zone starts, quality of competition, and relative Corsi.

You can't look at a single number with these stats and go running with it.
JIwasinskiJr
Boston Bruins
Location: Ludlow, MA
Joined: 02.09.2011

Aug 6 @ 8:28 PM ET


let me translate for those who don't speak troll

"you took a shot at my favorite player, so i'm gonna tell you that you have no idea what you're talking about, but am not going to point out where you were wrong, and what the correct interpretation is, because frankly i don't have a (frank)ing clue what i'm talking about"

- sensarmy_11


Who is my favorite player genius?

I'm a bruins fan, I like seguin but I'm not really a fan.
The point, if you use you super great brain, is that there is an easy reason for the Seguin number change.

In fact, it would help to support those of us that like to look at these advanced stats.

Talk about a TROLL. Read and retain information before attempting to make a point.
JIwasinskiJr
Boston Bruins
Location: Ludlow, MA
Joined: 02.09.2011

Aug 6 @ 8:30 PM ET
yes, proving his point by talking about firing shots from center ice........he TOTALLY gets it.
- sensarmy_11


Didn't see that point, but needing to look at more than ONE number is key with these stats!

But shooting from center ice JUST SO YOUR CORSI IS BETTER. Is the single easiest way to warm the bench for the rest of the game and then get the boot from the league.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Aug 6 @ 8:36 PM ET
Who is my favorite player genius?

I'm a bruins fan, I like seguin but I'm not really a fan.
The point, if you use you super great brain, is that there is an easy reason for the Seguin number change.

In fact, it would help to support those of us that like to look at these advanced stats.

Talk about a TROLL. Read and retain information before attempting to make a point.

- JIwasinskiJr


so you're telling me that i need to support those who look at advanced stats....like you.....while you're criticizing travis (one of the most knowledegable advanced stats people on the internet), and telling him that he has no idea how to apply and interpret those stats?
JIwasinskiJr
Boston Bruins
Location: Ludlow, MA
Joined: 02.09.2011

Aug 6 @ 8:52 PM ET
so you're telling me that i need to support those who look at advanced stats....like you.....while you're criticizing travis (one of the most knowledegable advanced stats people on the internet), and telling him that he has no idea how to apply and interpret those stats?
- sensarmy_11


What does this Corsi Rel tell you about these players?

What's what I want to know.

Because Corsi Rel is based on not only the players individually, but also how they compare to the rest of the team.

So if for example, Chara plays for the bruins and his Corsi Rel is only 1.9, does that make his a bad player?

No, because the Corsi Rel includes a players individual Cosri number minus the teams total Corsi number.

Therefore if you play on a good possession team like the bruins, kings, blues, hawks, the team Corsi is already so high because of the team defense,the chances of your Corsi rel on being through the roof are slim to none.

Hence why chara's is so low. Also, Chara had the highest Quality of competition among d men except for......this kinda funny Phanuf and Gnnarrsson for the leafs. And among the Norris finalists he had the highest D zone starts.

All I was trying to say is that looking at Corsi Rel, you HAVE to look at the teams numbers too!

Sorry if I misunderstood you.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Aug 6 @ 8:58 PM ET
What does this Corsi Rel tell you about these players?

What's what I want to know.

Because Corsi Rel is based on not only the players individually, but also how they compare to the rest of the team.

So if for example, Chara plays for the bruins and his Corsi Rel is only 1.9, does that make his a bad player?

No, because the Corsi Rel includes a players individual Cosri number minus the teams total Corsi number.

Therefore if you play on a good possession team like the bruins, kings, blues, hawks, the team Corsi is already so high because of the team defense,the chances of your Corsi rel on being through the roof are slim to none.

Hence why chara's is so low. Also, Chara had the highest Quality of competition among d men except for......this kinda funny Phanuf and Gnnarrsson for the leafs. And among the Norris finalists he had the highest D zone starts.

All I was trying to say is that looking at Corsi Rel, you HAVE to look at the teams numbers too!

Sorry if I misunderstood you.

- JIwasinskiJr


i don't disagree with you........but i do take exception with you telling travis that he doesn't know what he's talking about.

he's written literally hundreds of blogs, comparing, combining, and interpreting every form of advanced stat in existence, very effectively. to tell him he doesn't know what he's talking about, based on a quick blog (where he just happened to say that chara has probably taken a slight step back) seemed a little trollish.

just like you said you can't take one single stat and use it to analyze a player....you can't take 1 single blog, out of hundreds, and take shots at the blogger
JIwasinskiJr
Boston Bruins
Location: Ludlow, MA
Joined: 02.09.2011

Aug 6 @ 9:06 PM ET
i don't disagree with you........but i do take exception with you telling travis that he doesn't know what he's talking about.

he's written literally hundreds of blogs, comparing, combining, and interpreting every form of advanced stat in existence, very effectively. to tell him he doesn't know what he's talking about, based on a quick blog (where he just happened to say that chara has probably taken a slight step back) seemed a little trollish.

just like you said you can't take one single stat and use it to analyze a player....you can't take 1 single blog, out of hundreds, and take shots at the blogger

- sensarmy_11


The problem is that there is a division right now between those of us that understand and use these stats and those that dismiss them as foolish.

And even last night there was a blog on this site that said jagar and Zajac are among elite players in the league. And he based it on there possession stats.

His argument was silly and foolish as he picked and chose the duos in the league and left off many of the true elites.

And how many people understand Corsi?

Let alone Corsi Rel?

If you are an good player on a crappy team, your more likely to have your Corsi Rel higher than a great or elite player on a great or elite team.
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