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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Who Is Going To Overpay Matt Niskanen?
Author Message
drummer829
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.12.2010

Jun 2 @ 11:53 AM ET
If thats the case, I would sign him. Let him pair with EJ, and have Hejda slide down with Barrie.

Stastny is probably going to be gone, doesnt sound like they are close on a contract, still lots of cash for ROR, McGinn, and Barrie. MacKinnon will move to C and Avs can still look at signing a RW (Vrbata)?

- DDM-Coga


Sorry, pens are signing vrbata
Kevin R
Calgary Flames
Location: E5 = It aint gonna happen.
Joined: 02.10.2010

Jun 2 @ 11:54 AM ET
I think so. The perfect storm is there for it to happen. Career year, extremely limited UFA market, teams with cap room and a need for a D man.
- Ryan_Wilson

See, here is where I get lost on the stats side of the game. He had an awesome year for ES possession & points. But now you feel because he had a career year, stats say he was lucky on several percentages & will then demand more $$$ than what he is worth in future years. How do you know that? I have yet to see stats predict accurately & consistently players performance. There are only a handful of players that perform at a high level, year after year & they are considered truly elite players. & even they have off/injury filled years.

So back to your point, why would the Pens let a dman who had a great year & contributed to the success of the team walk for nothing? I would rather sign him to as cap friendly deal as possible & trade Letang, who truly was struggling. Yes, the value would be low for him but you do have teams like the Oilers who may give you a not bad price to acquire a Norris candidate dman a few years ago even though he hasn't been performing these last few years at the level that got him the Norris nomination. That to me would be better asset management.
cap1681
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Verona, PA
Joined: 02.04.2010

Jun 2 @ 11:56 AM ET
With Boyle likely leaving the sharks, I could see SJ making a pitch for him. I can't see his rights being traded though until after Pierre McGuire is hired
- drummer829


They could also be a target for Letang.
canadianpenfan
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Calgary
Joined: 05.13.2010

Jun 2 @ 11:59 AM ET
See, here is where I get lost on the stats side of the game. He had an awesome year for ES possession & points. But now you feel because he had a career year, stats say he was lucky on several percentages & will then demand more $$$ than what he is worth in future years. How do you know that? I have yet to see stats predict accurately & consistently players performance. There are only a handful of players that perform at a high level, year after year & they are considered truly elite players. & even they have off/injury filled years.

So back to your point, why would the Pens let a dman who had a great year & contributed to the success of the team walk for nothing? I would rather sign him to as cap friendly deal as possible & trade Letang, who truly was struggling. Yes, the value would be low for him but you do have teams like the Oilers who may give you a not bad price to acquire a Norris winning dman a few years ago even though he hasn't been performing these last few years at the level that got him the Norris. That to me would be better asset management.

- Kevin R



Letang never won a Norris.
Kevin R
Calgary Flames
Location: E5 = It aint gonna happen.
Joined: 02.10.2010

Jun 2 @ 11:59 AM ET
As a pens fan, ideally they should trade letang and extend niskanen... But nobody's gonna take letangs contract and injury history... So we're pretty much stuck with him and hopefully he has a bounce back year.... With all of blue line prospects and no forward prospects, it doesn't make sense to invest into Niskanen even though he definitely deserves it... And will get it elsewhere...
- Kunit

Beat me to it. Try getting Nisk to a 5-7 year deal at 5.5mill to 6.0/year & then try to extract what you can for Letang. Value is low but there are teams that will give something to get him & roll the dice he could return to even 80% of his Norris nomination year. Even if Pit got an Oilers 1st & Gagner for Letang, I could see them doing that. They are that desperate for a top pairing Dman.
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Jun 2 @ 11:59 AM ET
Sorry, pens are signing vrbata
- drummer829


Former Av, he wants to come back to where it all started...or probably not.
Dont you want PAP from us instead?
Kevin R
Calgary Flames
Location: E5 = It aint gonna happen.
Joined: 02.10.2010

Jun 2 @ 11:59 AM ET
Letang never won a Norris.
- canadianpenfan

Oh sorry my bad, he was runner up or something. OK, still, impressive to be in the running.
rebma
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 04.24.2012

Jun 2 @ 12:01 PM ET
Niskanen notched six points in the Penguins first round series against Columbus on the power play. His removal from the power play and insertion of Kris Letang as the QB resulted in the Penguins struggling against the Rangers on the power play.

I know it's off topic, but after reading this statement, can anyone justify how Blysma is still the coach of this team??
dbell646
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 04.13.2009

Jun 2 @ 12:02 PM ET
See, here is where I get lost on the stats side of the game. He had an awesome year for ES possession & points. But now you feel because he had a career year, stats say he was lucky on several percentages & will then demand more $$$ than what he is worth in future years. How do you know that? I have yet to see stats predict accurately & consistently players performance. There are only a handful of players that perform at a high level, year after year & they are considered truly elite players. & even they have off/injury filled years.

So back to your point, why would the Pens let a dman who had a great year & contributed to the success of the team walk for nothing? I would rather sign him to as cap friendly deal as possible & trade Letang, who truly was struggling. Yes, the value would be low for him but you do have teams like the Oilers who may give you a not bad price to acquire a Norris candidate dman a few years ago even though he hasn't been performing these last few years at the level that got him the Norris. That to me would be better asset management.

- Kevin R

Letang sucks he had more goals in less them half the games and also logs a ton of minutes against better competition. If you truly believe we are a better team with nisk over letang then I'm sorry
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Jun 2 @ 12:05 PM ET
Niskanen notched six points in the Penguins first round series against Columbus on the power play. His removal from the power play and insertion of Kris Letang as the QB resulted in the Penguins struggling against the Rangers on the power play.

I know it's off topic, but after reading this statement, can anyone justify how Blysma is still the coach of this team??

- rebma


They want the new GM to fire him, and block him from being hired by another team... despite the Owners saying otherwise, I can't believe that wasn't part of it. Unless they wish to try and ride him out for the season or part of it, just to avoid getting a coach for 1 year and then pursue the Redwing's coach after next season.
drummer829
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.12.2010

Jun 2 @ 12:14 PM ET
If nisk signs for 5-5.5 mil, I'd say resign him. Martin only has 1 year left, and as much as I like him, he is getting up there in age. With Maatta and Pouliot going through a tough surgery, they have some question marks on defense, especially with the amount of young kids coming up. If scuds is traded, then the 2015-16 season will feature this defense:

Letang-maatta
Pouliot-Harrington
Despres-bortuzzo
Dumoulin

I don't think it's a bad thing, but there's still a chance pouliot, Harrington, dumoulin, and even despres do not develop into consistent Dmen. Sign nisk for a 6 year deal at 5.5/year and keep him as insurance. If the youngsters do develop into top 4 guys, then trade nisk in a few years. Don't forget, the cap is consistently going to rise
Conse
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Rio de Janeiro
Joined: 11.27.2013

Jun 2 @ 12:15 PM ET
Agree a 100% with this post. Time to kick in those ELCs.
Also, please give me a coach that won't bench the rookies the first mistake they make, and play scuderi on the last minute of a playoff game.
dbell646
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 04.13.2009

Jun 2 @ 12:15 PM ET
If nisk signs for 5-5.5 mil, I'd say resign him. Martin only has 1 year left, and as much as I like him, he is getting up there in age. With Maatta and Pouliot going through a tough surgery, they have some question marks on defense, especially with the amount of young kids coming up. If scuds is traded, then the 2015-16 season will feature this defense:

Letang-maatta
Pouliot-Harrington
Despres-bortuzzo
Dumoulin

I don't think it's a bad thing, but there's still a chance pouliot, Harrington, dumoulin, and even despres do not develop into consistent Dmen. Sign nisk for a 6 year deal at 5.5/year and keep him as insurance. If the youngsters do develop into top 4 guys, then trade nisk in a few years. Don't forget, the cap is consistently going to rise

- drummer829

They can still go sign another vet for less term and $.
Bradlee3
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tanev hit was clean.
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jun 2 @ 12:16 PM ET
Letang sucks he had more goals in less them half the games and also logs a ton of minutes against better competition. If you truly believe we are a better team with nisk over letang then I'm sorry
- dbell646

Agreed, definitely keep Letang his potential is still through the roof and right now his trade value is to low. He'll come back next year IMO. Try and trade niskanens rights if u can and let the youth play already !
Ryan Wilson
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Rochester, NY
Joined: 06.13.2013

Jun 2 @ 12:16 PM ET
See, here is where I get lost on the stats side of the game. He had an awesome year for ES possession & points. But now you feel because he had a career year, stats say he was lucky on several percentages & will then demand more $$$ than what he is worth in future years. How do you know that? I have yet to see stats predict accurately & consistently players performance. There are only a handful of players that perform at a high level, year after year & they are considered truly elite players. & even they have off/injury filled years.

So back to your point, why would the Pens let a dman who had a great year & contributed to the success of the team walk for nothing? I would rather sign him to as cap friendly deal as possible & trade Letang, who truly was struggling. Yes, the value would be low for him but you do have teams like the Oilers who may give you a not bad price to acquire a Norris candidate dman a few years ago even though he hasn't been performing these last few years at the level that got him the Norris nomination. That to me would be better asset management.

- Kevin R


There isn't a cap friendly deal to be had.

You can question the data if you want, that's your right, but I'll continue to use it and increase the probability of being correct more times than not.

The last time I ignored data was when I praised the Scuderi signing. That will be the last time I do that.
drummer829
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.12.2010

Jun 2 @ 12:23 PM ET
They can still go sign another vet for less term and $.
- dbell646


How is scuderi working out?
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Jun 2 @ 12:24 PM ET
There isn't a cap friendly deal to be had.

You can question the data if you want, that's your right, but I'll continue to use it and increase the probability of being correct more times than not.

The last time I ignored data was when I praised the Scuderi signing. That will be the last time I do that.

- Ryan_Wilson

But Mr. Wilson, stats have never consistently and accurately predicted exactly what would happen, so they're no good!
intelligentscorpio
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ajax, ON
Joined: 11.02.2005

Jun 2 @ 12:26 PM ET
I'd much rather have Letang at $7.25 mil than Niskanen at $6 mil.
- rival22

No question
rival22
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: @Mance_22 - Albany, NY
Joined: 02.27.2007

Jun 2 @ 12:27 PM ET
How is scuderi working out?
- drummer829


Because one UFA vet defenseman sucked, they all will?
jmdodgeser4
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.26.2009

Jun 2 @ 12:27 PM ET
I never thought that I might actually love the pens. If they hire piere I will warship them. No more hearing him calling games!!!

When it comes to letang, pens are screwed.
dbell646
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 04.13.2009

Jun 2 @ 12:27 PM ET
How is scuderi working out?
- drummer829

Terribly but he's at 3.75 for a few more years. Getting average play for 5-6 mil for 7/8 years would be worse
Ryan Wilson
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Rochester, NY
Joined: 06.13.2013

Jun 2 @ 12:28 PM ET
But Mr. Wilson, stats have never consistently and accurately predicted exactly what would happen, so they're no good!
- BulliesPhan87


And that sums up the misconception about stats. They aren't 100% fool proof, but most people that use them extensively already know that. It's just about increasing the probability of being correct. Stats do that.
Oneonta Penguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.02.2007

Jun 2 @ 12:28 PM ET
Hmmm....good question. Trade us Duchene for his rights and let's find out.
- canadianpenfan



Won't work cap wise ... we need to add someone like Scuderi.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Jun 2 @ 12:36 PM ET
And that sums up the misconception about stats. They aren't 100% fool proof, but most people that use them extensively already know that. It's just about increasing the probability of being correct. Stats do that.
- Ryan_Wilson


Only thing that is 100% about stats, is that they are not fullproof 100% of the time
all-pgh
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: PA
Joined: 05.14.2014

Jun 2 @ 12:39 PM ET
So the real question... is someone going to bust out 6 mil for Nisk?
- Guile

The Flyers just paid 6 mil for 50 yr old Kimmo Timonen his past season. Nisky is getting paid.
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