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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Hextall's View on Analytics and Roster Building
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JFlyers00
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: NYC (kill me) , NJ
Joined: 11.24.2011

May 8 @ 11:05 AM ET
This league is funky right now. MacDonald is a test case for a lot of things about the NHL of the 2010s.

Because both sides are right. A 27-year-old MacDonald who has the skating ability he does, with the level of hockey sense that he does, was going to score a long-term contract, for those dollars, with someone.

That doesn't mean it's a good contract. It means that someone was going to pay it.

I'm...uneasy about it, as I've said before. Because MacDonald gets exposed as a top pairing defenseman. I'd need to see a bit more to know if he can totally handle second-pairing minutes without being exposed.

To me, it's a poor deal if he plays on the third-pairing, at that salary, because of exposure concerns. But as uneasy as I am right now...I guess I still need to see a few more games.

- AllInForFlyers


It will be real interesting if Hexy decides to move MacDonald to one of those teams will to pay. Something I could see happening.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 8 @ 11:06 AM ET
For the most part, I don't think the traditional media cares -- nor should they, because it is not something their target audience focuses on -- about whether a team uses analytics and to what extent.

The Howard Eskin and Michael Barkanns out there care about "Was Paul Holmgren pressured to kick himself upstairs to team president so Hextall could become GM". They don't care (nor should they) on how much weight, if any, Hextall will give to things like Corsi or Fenwick when he's assessing his roster and whether that differs greatly from Holmgren's methods.

- bmeltzer



Who did ask the question about analytics? Was it one of the beats or somebody from the blog contingent?
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

May 8 @ 11:07 AM ET
It will be real interesting if Hexy decides to move MacDonald to one of those teams will to pay. Something I could see happening.
- JFlyers00


Are there rules against signing a guy then trading him immediately?
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

May 8 @ 11:07 AM ET
Who did ask the question about analytics? Was it one of the beats or somebody from the blog contingent?
- Tomahawk


Probably Gargano
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 8 @ 11:09 AM ET
Are there rules against signing a guy then trading him immediately?
- PhillySportsGuy



Nein.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

May 8 @ 11:09 AM ET
Are there rules against signing a guy then trading him immediately?
- PhillySportsGuy


None that I'm aware of; it's probably considered to be poor form, wouldn't help you in the court of public opinion, but Hextall could argue to concerned agents that he didn't negotiate the deal and would prefer another path, to whatever degree of accuracy a statement like that contains.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 8 @ 11:11 AM ET
None that I'm aware of; it's probably considered to be poor form, wouldn't help you in the court of public opinion, but Hextall could argue to concerned agents that he didn't negotiate the deal and would prefer another path, to whatever degree of accuracy a statement like that contains.
- AllInForFlyers



All old allegiances go out the the door (or upstairs) with the old GM... I don't think anybody around the league would bat an eye if Hexy undid some of Homer's recent work.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

May 8 @ 11:11 AM ET
hextall is handcuffed by the awful contracts to hartnell, lecavalier, streit and grossmann
- 13kdub13


The Hartnell deal was for too many years, given the tendency of many power forwards to decline rapidly after age 30. The excessively length of deal, however, was the trade-off for extending him coming off his career year at a very modest increase in cap hit (4.2M in the previous deal to 4.75M).

The other deals were all ones in which the Flyers paid UFA-type market value for veterans they projected to play starting roles: that always means "overpayment" compared to what a team would ideally pay a younger player who is capable of performing the same role comparably.

BTW, the Grossmann contract does not "handcuff" the Flyers with the way D salaries league wide have exploded. He is actually the lowest paid of the Flyers' starting six D and his salary is right in line with what veteran Dmen who play his minutes and role are making around the league.

BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

May 8 @ 11:12 AM ET
All old allegiances go out the the door (or upstairs) with the old GM... I don't think anybody around the league would bat an eye if Hexy undid some of Homer's recent work.
- Tomahawk

So what you're saying is he's bringing Mike Richards home?
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

May 8 @ 11:14 AM ET
Who did ask the question about analytics? Was it one of the beats or somebody from the blog contingent?
- Tomahawk


Sielski, I believe. That question was asked of Hextall while I was still with Paul Holmgren and before I got over to Hextall.

I asked the question to Holmgren about whether he'll stay involved in draft preparation and asked Hextall about balancing winning with drafting and development.


PhillaBully
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.20.2010

May 8 @ 11:14 AM ET
Future is looking bright May The 8th be with you


Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 8 @ 11:17 AM ET
Sielski, I believe. That question was asked of Hextall while I was still with Paul Holmgren and before I got over to Hextall.

I asked the question to Holmgren about whether he'll stay involved in draft preparation and asked Hextall about balancing winning with drafting and development.

- bmeltzer



Thanks.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

May 8 @ 11:18 AM ET
The Hartnell deal was for too many years, given the tendency of many power forwards to decline rapidly after age 30. The excessively length of deal, however, was the trade-off for extending him coming off his career year at a very modest increase in cap hit (4.2M in the previous deal to 4.75M).

The other deals were all ones in which the Flyers paid UFA-type market value for veterans they projected to play starting roles: that always means "overpayment" compared to what a team would ideally pay a younger player who is capable of performing the same role comparably.

BTW, the Grossmann contract does not "handcuff" the Flyers with the way D salaries league wide have exploded. He is actually the lowest paid of the Flyers' starting six D and his salary is right in line with what veteran Dmen who play his minutes and role are making around the league.

- bmeltzer




I still think they could move Hartnell. Might not get much back because he has the leverage to either waive or not the NTC but he could help a younger team or team that lacks the grit and net front presense and scoring he does bring.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 8 @ 11:18 AM ET
So what you're saying is he's bringing Mike Richards home?
- BulliesPhan87


AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

May 8 @ 11:19 AM ET
All old allegiances go out the the door (or upstairs) with the old GM... I don't think anybody around the league would bat an eye if Hexy undid some of Homer's recent work.
- Tomahawk


As much as I like some of the players on a personal level...hey. What Hextall said was true. He's gotta assess the fit, and some pieces on the roster might not fit.

Since it's his head on the chopping block, he should absolutely get to make those calls. Because one thing we all know for sure: That job isn't promised to him one second longer than team performance dictates.

He should at least sink or swim with a roster he prefers, and I have no problems with that concept.

Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 8 @ 11:24 AM ET
As much as I like some of the players on a personal level...hey. What Hextall said was true. He's gotta assess the fit, and some pieces on the roster might not fit.
- AllInForFlyers



I'm sure there will be some awkward moments in the hallway, but probably nothing that Homer and Clarke didn't experience during the last transition. Team hasn't been very good the past couple of seasons... some change should be expected.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

May 8 @ 11:25 AM ET
I still think they could move Hartnell. Might not get much back because he has the leverage to either waive or not the NTC but he could help a younger team or team that lacks the grit and net front presense and scoring he does bring.
- J35Bacher


The problem with moving Hartnell is that you would need to replace him. If you want Moulson or Vanek, those guys are going to cost a lot and aren't exactly the youngest guys.

The only reason for moving Hartnell would be to avoid dealing with his salary a few years from now. I just don't think its worth it unless they have a contingency plan laid out.
13kdub13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 04.21.2014

May 8 @ 11:35 AM ET
grossmann is making the same money as hjalmarsson in chicago. he's nowhere near the player hjarlmarsson is. grossmann is an ok player. never understood the need to re-sign him for the term that they did. streit is making almost as much as duncan keith. ugh!
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

May 8 @ 11:36 AM ET
Dumb comparison. Keith is signed to a 13 year cap circumventing deal that has possible recapture penalties down the line. He will be almost 40 when it finally expires.

hextall is handcuffed by the awful contracts to hartnell, lecavalier, streit and grossmann
- 13kdub13


What make the Streit contract awful? He had a solid season overall and actually looked better the longer it went on. If he was a FA right now I would happily five him a three year deal at $5.25 million per year.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

May 8 @ 11:39 AM ET
The problem with moving Hartnell is that you would need to replace him. If you want Moulson or Vanek, those guys are going to cost a lot and aren't exactly the youngest guys.

The only reason for moving Hartnell would be to avoid dealing with his salary a few years from now. I just don't think its worth it unless they have a contingency plan laid out.

- PhillySportsGuy


I think they would be fine. Simmonds is there new power forward. I think they will look to get a new winger for giroux. He just doesn't seem to fit. And if, big if, they can move Vinny and Hartnell it would allow them a little more room to manipulate the roster better.
Streit2ThePoint
Seattle Kraken
Location: it's disgusting how good you are at hockeybuzz.
Joined: 09.20.2013

May 8 @ 11:40 AM ET
grossmann is making the same money as hjalmarsson in chicago. he's nowhere near the player hjarlmarsson is. grossmann is an ok player. never understood the need to re-sign him for the term that they did. streit is making almost as much as duncan keith. ugh!
- 13kdub13


Hjalmarsson is also 26 and his moneys will only go up (next season he's making 4.1mill).
13kdub13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 04.21.2014

May 8 @ 11:41 AM ET
~$30M committed this season to a defense that's not very good. sounds like a winning formula to me.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

May 8 @ 11:41 AM ET
I think they would be fine. Simmonds is there new power forward. I think they will look to get a new winger for giroux. He just doesn't seem to fit. And if, big if, they can move Vinny and Hartnell it would allow them a little more room to manipulate the roster better.
- J35Bacher


Simmonds is a RW. It would force the team to move Simmer or Jake to LW.

Trading Hartnell would open up a hole and force the team to use the money saved to fill the same hole. It may be beneficial in the long run, but I don't think the team is going to get a great deal on a top line LW. They are going to overpay on years and dollars like they did with Hartnell.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

May 8 @ 11:42 AM ET
I'm sure there will be some awkward moments in the hallway, but probably nothing that Homer and Clarke didn't experience during the last transition. Team hasn't been very good the past couple of seasons... some change should be expected.
- Tomahawk


That must have been a lot more awkward considering the complete mess the team was in when Clarke left.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

May 8 @ 11:45 AM ET
For the most part, I don't think the traditional media cares -- nor should they, because it is not something their target audience focuses on -- about whether a team uses analytics and to what extent.

The Howard Eskin and Michael Barkanns out there care about "Was Paul Holmgren pressured to kick himself upstairs to team president so Hextall could become GM". They don't care (nor should they) on how much weight, if any, Hextall will give to things like Corsi or Fenwick when he's assessing his roster and whether that differs greatly from Holmgren's methods.

- bmeltzer


All of this. I know we all love to banter about this stuff, but the fact is, the average hockey fan really doesn't care about Fenwick or Corsi. Writing about this stuff for a wide, diverse audience would put most readers to sleep. Doesn't make them lesser fans or whatever. They just don't derive enjoyment from that stuff.

Basically, Sielski probably asked the analytics question because he hasn't been able to draw attention to himself in awhile, so he found a topic that he probably doesn't grasp in the first place and likely couldn't explain to poke the Flyers organization with.
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