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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Nonis Not Convinced By Corsi
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Morris
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Nov 12 @ 6:45 PM ET
Analytics can be deceiving, even we as fans know it.

Put someone on the ice with Niklas Lidstrom, and their stats would have been inflated.
Put someone on Crosbys wing, and their stats are inflated.
Have someone change on the fly, but never actually join the rush as they are behind the play. Their team scores on the rush. They are now +1. Their stats are inflated.

There are too many invariables in hockey that current normal and advanced stats do not show

- ILoveLamp

To play devil's advocate, look up WOWYs. A lot of statistical analysis that's done about players is linemate-dependent.

What you're describing is how +/- is deceiving, and that's a major focal point of most advanced stat enthusiasts.
markmark
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 07.27.2010

Nov 12 @ 6:45 PM ET
Or he's constantly defending 2on 1 or 3 on 2's?
- Garnie


Franson has offense, yes. It's his lack of speed that makes his defensive game suspect.

He is perfectly fine in any close quarters defending, in the corners, in front of the net, etc. He has improved his positioning since he started in T.O. But when he is trying to get TO the play he is always behind because he lacks acceleration and speed.

Don't read this as a knock against Franson, I just believe its an element of his game that he lacks to make him higher than a 4th defenseman in my mind.
Talkshowhost
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 10.17.2010

Nov 12 @ 6:48 PM ET
To play devil's advocate, look up WOWYs. A lot of statistical analysis that's done about players is linemate-dependent.

What you're describing is how +/- is deceiving, and that's a major focal point of most advanced stat enthusiasts.

- Morris

Morris
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Nov 12 @ 6:48 PM ET
WOWY's ( with or without you) are a whole area of study on this...
- Talkshowhost

yep, that's an argument against plus/minus being a be-all and end-all stat. Which any advanced statistics guy would agree with wholesale.
GCHonda
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: MABIE NEXT YEAR!!!!!!! , ON
Joined: 07.03.2010

Nov 12 @ 6:48 PM ET
[quote=Garnie]You old (frank)ing dog.

You in Florida for parts of the year?




Don't forget the white shirt, white shoes, white socks, & white shorts that go up to your nipples.


.

















]
Talkshowhost
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 10.17.2010

Nov 12 @ 6:50 PM ET
yep, that's an argument against plus/minus being a be-all and end-all stat. Which any advanced statistics guy would agree with wholesale.
- Morris


yep agreed 100%
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Nov 12 @ 6:50 PM ET
Franson has offense, yes. It's his lack of speed that makes his defensive game suspect.

He is perfectly fine in any close quarters defending, in the corners, in front of the net, etc. He has improved his positioning since he started in T.O. But when he is trying to get TO the play he is always behind because he lacks acceleration and speed.

Don't read this as a knock against Franson, I just believe its an element of his game that he lacks to make him higher than a 4th defenseman in my mind.

- markmark


Yeah I agree, some of it's learning he's just starting to be a full time NHLer - he should be the weak link on a 2nd pairing at this time. I'm hoping we can sign him for a bargain and he stays, it will depend on his #s this year.
Mapleleafs_91
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: PAUL RANGER SUCKS
Joined: 06.27.2011

Nov 12 @ 6:52 PM ET
Right handed defenders more in a shutdown role or two-way and good age with some toughness:

Myers
Schenn
Erik Johnson
Gudbranson
D. Hamilton
Dumba
Hamonic
Bogosian
Trouba
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Nov 12 @ 6:53 PM ET
[quote=Garnie]You old (frank)ing dog.

You in Florida for parts of the year?




Don't forget the white shirt, white shoes, white socks, & white shorts that go up to your nipples.


.

















]

- GCHonda


It's like it's your 1st night on HB - like wtf?
Woderwick
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: David Clarkson's Water Bottle, ON
Joined: 02.12.2013

Nov 12 @ 6:54 PM ET
It's like it's your 1st night on HB - like wtf?

- Garnie

He's drunk....again.
bixll
Location: New Glasgow, NS
Joined: 09.04.2008

Nov 12 @ 6:56 PM ET
You old (frank)ing dog.

You in Florida for parts of the year?























- Garnie



Yeh, We have a nice place in West Palm Beach..
TonkaPhaneuf
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Where'd canucks fans go? -daeth Too busy with the lotto simulator - seagull
Joined: 11.22.2012

Nov 12 @ 6:58 PM ET
Duke of
- Woderwick[url] [url]

I choked on my coffee reading this, solid post.
Woderwick
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: David Clarkson's Water Bottle, ON
Joined: 02.12.2013

Nov 12 @ 7:01 PM ET
I choked on my coffee reading this, solid post.
- TonkaPhaneuf

I can't be making too much fun of GC...looks like he's having a rough go of it tonight.
GCHonda
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: MABIE NEXT YEAR!!!!!!! , ON
Joined: 07.03.2010

Nov 12 @ 7:05 PM ET
He's drunk....again.
- Woderwick




Mabie Tee & GCHonda are the same person tonight.
Woderwick
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: David Clarkson's Water Bottle, ON
Joined: 02.12.2013

Nov 12 @ 7:06 PM ET
Mabie Tee & GCHonda are the same person tonight.
- GCHonda

TeeC Honda
GCHonda
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: MABIE NEXT YEAR!!!!!!! , ON
Joined: 07.03.2010

Nov 12 @ 7:06 PM ET
I can't be making too much fun of GC...looks like he's having a rough go of it tonight.
- Woderwick



Ya these darn sleeping pills are fukking me up. Gotta get off these things eventually somehow.
Woderwick
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: David Clarkson's Water Bottle, ON
Joined: 02.12.2013

Nov 12 @ 7:09 PM ET
Ya these darn sleeping pills are fukking me up. Gotta get off these things eventually somehow.
- GCHonda

You need the intervention. The HBUZZ Intervention. Sleeping pills are bad, mkay.
GCHonda
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: MABIE NEXT YEAR!!!!!!! , ON
Joined: 07.03.2010

Nov 12 @ 7:09 PM ET
Right handed defenders more in a shutdown role or two-way and good age:

Myers
Schenn
Erik Johnson
Gudbranson
D. Hamilton
Dumba
Hamonic
Bogosian
Carlson
Trouba

- Mapleleafs_91



Sad thing is that the only D-man on this list who's available is the ex-Leaf who doesn't get along with Phanuef.
ILoveLamp
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 02.01.2011

Nov 12 @ 7:09 PM ET
yep, that's an argument against plus/minus being a be-all and end-all stat. Which any advanced statistics guy would agree with wholesale.
- Morris


My last point was about plus/minus, but my other two points were about advanced stats.

If you have a winger, on a line with a strong face off guy, then everytime that centre wins a faceoff, the whole lines possession time increases.
If you have Jason Blake taking shots from the boards, the lines shots for increases, despite it not being a high percentage scoring opportunity.
If you have someone like Lidstrom, or Datsyuk, then the lines takeaways increase.
If you have a coach that prefers a trap style system, the lines takeaways increase.

It works the opposite way as well. A great player, on a bad team, with a bad system will look bad in advanced statistics.

Advanced stats do not work in hockey as well as they do in baseball, because it is more of a team sport, as opposed to individual battles of hitters vs pitchers
GCHonda
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: MABIE NEXT YEAR!!!!!!! , ON
Joined: 07.03.2010

Nov 12 @ 7:11 PM ET
You need the intervention. The HBUZZ Intervention. Sleeping pills are bad, mkay.
- Woderwick



I think I just need to get all the guys on here together for one night, we all go out & tie one on, have a blast. I need to let it all out!!!! I'm probably to wound up.
Byfuglien Ate Me
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Burger King
Joined: 09.24.2010

Nov 12 @ 7:15 PM ET
I think I just need to get all the guys on here together for one night, we all go out & tie one on, have a blast. I need to let it all out!!!! I'm probably to wound up.
- GCHonda


You haven't been the same since you got rid of the Accord, Honda....
GCHonda
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: MABIE NEXT YEAR!!!!!!! , ON
Joined: 07.03.2010

Nov 12 @ 7:17 PM ET




OMG I finally figured out how to post a pic, there really is a God!!!!!
FIRST PIC!!!!
Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Nov 12 @ 7:17 PM ET
To play devil's advocate, look up WOWYs. A lot of statistical analysis that's done about players is linemate-dependent.

What you're describing is how +/- is deceiving, and that's a major focal point of most advanced stat enthusiasts.

- Morris


+/- may be deceiving but ...

Corsi/Fenwick/Goony Googoo

Isn't consistently scored
ignores the effect of goaltending
ignores the quality of shots
ignores the difference in coaching styles
GCHonda
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: MABIE NEXT YEAR!!!!!!! , ON
Joined: 07.03.2010

Nov 12 @ 7:24 PM ET
http://tinypic.com/3ia3rw3c
Morris
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Nov 12 @ 7:29 PM ET
+/- may be deceiving but ...

Corsi/Fenwick/Goony Googoo

Isn't consistently scored
ignores the effect of goaltending
ignores the quality of shots
ignores the difference in coaching styles

- Aetherial

Not saying advanced stats are perfect, in fact in this very thread and many others I suggested ways that they could improve.

I was mostly pointing out that advanced stats people generally dislike +/- for those precise limitations, and look very fondly on WOWYs, which factor in who has which linemates.
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