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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Prospect Prospectus, Draft Talk, Memorial Cup
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2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

May 22 @ 8:46 PM ET
The general consensus with this draft is that there's a dip in quality after 35 or so.

If I can trade the 11th and 41st picks and get the 14th and 23rd/24th, I'd seriously consider it. Still getting a good player at 14 and have a shot at a far better player than they'd see at 41 by adding another pick in the top 30

- Jsaquella

weber was a 2nd round pick...
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 22 @ 8:50 PM ET
weber was a 2nd round pick...
- 2Real


Yes he was. In one of the deepest drafts of the last 20 years. The thing is, most scouts feel that the quality dips around the 35 player mark. They pick 41st. Rather drop 3 spots to 14 and move up 17 slots, and have two picks in the top 25
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

May 22 @ 8:52 PM ET
Yes he was. In one of the deepest drafts of the last 20 years. The thing is, most scouts feel that the quality dips around the 35 player mark. They pick 41st. Rather drop 3 spots to 14 and move up 17 slots, and have two picks in the top 25
- Jsaquella

unless there's someone we cannot pass up we should stay put and not trade away picks
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 22 @ 8:54 PM ET
unless there's someone we cannot pass up we should stay put and not trade away picks
- 2Real


They wouldn't be trading away picks, they'd still have the same number of picks.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

May 22 @ 8:55 PM ET
Yes he was. In one of the deepest drafts of the last 20 years. The thing is, most scouts feel that the quality dips around the 35 player mark. They pick 41st. Rather drop 3 spots to 14 and move up 17 slots, and have two picks in the top 25
- Jsaquella


With this draft I'd absolutely do that
Coburns_Nose
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Coburn's face
Joined: 11.16.2012

May 22 @ 8:56 PM ET
Simmonds is a solid player. But that's getting a little carried away. He is not a player for the ages.
- MJL


I know what you mean. It's just so hard to get guys like him because the teams who have them don't want to let go of them.

He's a 22 year old power forward with above average skating and puck skills.
He's a great fighter and he plays hard.
He's becoming a real leader on this team.
He's locked in at a good cap hit ($4M) through his prime years.
He's got great PP chemistry with Giroux.

I could go on, but you get my point. I don't know what the standard is for "player for the ages," but time will how good he will be.
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

May 22 @ 8:58 PM ET
After 1

Saskatoon - 0
Portland - 0

Leier is not likely to return, no update has been provided.
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

May 22 @ 9:03 PM ET
Do you guys think it's hard for every announcer ever to kiss Crosby with that shield on?
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

May 22 @ 9:04 PM ET
I know what you mean. It's just so hard to get guys like him because the teams who have them don't want to let go of them.

He's a 22 year old power forward with above average skating and puck skills.
He's a great fighter and he plays hard.
He's becoming a real leader on this team.
He's locked in at a good cap hit ($4M) through his prime years.
He's got great PP chemistry with Giroux.

I could go on, but you get my point. I don't know what the standard is for "player for the ages," but time will how good he will be.

- Coburns_Nose


ALL ABOARD THE WAYNE TRAIN BABY WOO WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

May 22 @ 9:05 PM ET
I know what you mean. It's just so hard to get guys like him because the teams who have them don't want to let go of them.

He's a 22 year old power forward with above average skating and puck skills.
He's a great fighter and he plays hard.
He's becoming a real leader on this team.
He's locked in at a good cap hit ($4M) through his prime years.
He's got great PP chemistry with Giroux.

I could go on, but you get my point. I don't know what the standard is for "player for the ages," but time will how good he will be.

- Coburns_Nose


He's def not an above average skater. He's a very nice player at 22 and can be viewed as a core guy going forward
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 22 @ 9:12 PM ET
I know what you mean. It's just so hard to get guys like him because the teams who have them don't want to let go of them.

He's a 22 year old power forward with above average skating and puck skills.
He's a great fighter and he plays hard.
He's becoming a real leader on this team.
He's locked in at a good cap hit ($4M) through his prime years.
He's got great PP chemistry with Giroux.

I could go on, but you get my point. I don't know what the standard is for "player for the ages," but time will how good he will be.

- Coburns_Nose


He's a very good player, who I certainly would like to keep. But if he needs to be included in a deal that lands the defenseman they need. No problem trading him. He's good, but not that good.
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

May 22 @ 9:16 PM ET
He's a very good player, who I certainly would like to keep. But if he needs to be included in a deal that lands the defenseman they need. No problem trading him. He's good, but not that good.
- MJL


And the changes begin in Vancouver...

Edler next?

I hope so.
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

May 22 @ 9:22 PM ET
And the changes begin in Vancouver...

Edler next?

I hope so.

- stveshdy

Our next 4 2nd rounders for him.

Homer's all over that poop.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 22 @ 9:24 PM ET
And the changes begin in Vancouver...

Edler next?

I hope so.

- stveshdy


The price will be high.
Doc_Sarcasm
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Should of studied Geometry
Joined: 04.28.2013

May 22 @ 9:30 PM ET
And the changes begin in Vancouver...

Edler next?

I hope so.

- stveshdy



If I were a Canucks fan, I would want to keep Edler and jettison Gillis.
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

May 22 @ 9:33 PM ET
The price will be high.
- MJL


Always is. I would rather be a team that focuses on defense first. When you play good defense you create mistakes and turnovers which leads to offensive chances.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 22 @ 9:43 PM ET
Always is. I would rather be a team that focuses on defense first. When you play good defense you create mistakes and turnovers which leads to offensive chances.
- stveshdy


A player like Edler would help both. And I agree 100% with that philosophy. I don't want a passive team that sits back and isn't aggressive. You can be a strong forechecking team, while also being strong defensively.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

May 22 @ 9:48 PM ET
If I were a Canucks fan, I would want to keep Edler and jettison Gillis.
- Doc_Sarcasm


You'd think jettisoning edler wouldn't sit well with the twins
psuhockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 03.25.2011

May 22 @ 9:52 PM ET
I don't want a passive team that sits back and isn't aggressive. You can be a strong forechecking team, while also being strong defensively.
- MJL

Like Boston and LA.
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

May 22 @ 9:53 PM ET
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

May 22 @ 9:56 PM ET
A player like Edler would help both. And I agree 100% with that philosophy. I don't want a passive team that sits back and isn't aggressive. You can be a strong forechecking team, while also being strong defensively.
- MJL


Yup. Anderson not having a great series for Ottawa.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

May 22 @ 9:57 PM ET
Yes he was. In one of the deepest drafts of the last 20 years. The thing is, most scouts feel that the quality dips around the 35 player mark. They pick 41st. Rather drop 3 spots to 14 and move up 17 slots, and have two picks in the top 25
- Jsaquella

My only concern would be losing out on possible elite prospects by moving to 14. I'd rather have 1 elite defenseman than 2 top 4s. Chances are higher, by moving to 14 and 17, that we lose our shot at an elite prospect.
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

May 22 @ 9:58 PM ET
After 2

Saskatoon - 1
Portland - 1
coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

May 22 @ 10:00 PM ET
Yup. Anderson not having a great series for Ottawa.
- stveshdy

PENS looking unstoppable right now. Come on BOS!!
exlund
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Manywhere, NJ
Joined: 02.16.2007

May 22 @ 10:01 PM ET
It's a no-brainer as to what to do regarding your selection and the best player available. Regardless of position.
- 77rams


There is no list of prospect rankings that has it all correct. Every year scouts and other so called "experts" miss things...sometimes, big things. Each team's staff has their tendencies in terms of how they value players.

In determining the "best player available" I think it's ok (and probably pretty common) to factor in, to some extent, things like:

-the existing mix of organizational talent..strengths, weaknesses etc.

-the direction in which they want to go, their philosophy as an organization/team.

-the current and expected value of specific types of players in the marketplace (puck moving D men with size, versus say, defensive forwards)

If, after looking at all the factors, a GM and his staff feel that a player is the best player at that spot, for their needs, then I'm ok with it. In this case, since I feel the Flyers have a particularly egregious lack of young, offensive-defensemen in the system, drafting one of the top two-way/offensive defensemen, in a draft that has a few really good ones, isn't an unreasonable bias to have going into the draft. With that said, I am not advocating making too far a reach for a D man versus a forward they may have ahead of him.

I have my own list that has a Flyer based bias toward a few of the D men in the draft, but if certain select forwards are still there when the Flyers pick, like say, a Nichushkin if he falls, I would take them over anyone else not names Jones.

Here's my (current) list for the Flyers pick at #11:

assuming that the first four are gone...

(Jones)
(Drouin)
(MacKinnon)
(Barkov)

---------------

Whoever is left out of those below (in order) when the Flyers pick, I would take them:

Nichushkin
Nurse
Zadorov
Pulock
Lindholm
Shinkaruk
Monahan


Worst case scenario is that you have an excess of quality players at one position who can be used as chips to shore up other areas of need.

- 77rams


Yes, but that is easier said than done and has it's risks. For one thing, opposing GMs have you over a barrell because it's obvious you need to make a deal...easy to end up overpaying. You can sign a free agent, but you end up overpaying to land any top 4 guys.


You could even try and place the player at another position. Gagne was drafted as a center but I'd say had a decent career once being shifted to wing

- 77rams


While some can make a smooth transition, other players struggle to adapt to that kind of change and/or simply aren't as good as they are when they play their natural positon. You can't just take it for granted that you can just move these guys around any which way imo.
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